2016 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[tanner12oz]

Not saying Lani has a chance because I think he is an immediate toss as a result of his workouts BUT just wanted to post the uae derby horses results over the years. They aren't as bad as people make them out to be...more times then not finish in the top 10 and master of hounds came in 5th which imo qualifies as being at least close to hitting the board.

again I think Lani is a toss but fir reasons beyond he's uae

2000-------China Visit-----------1 start---------finished 6th
2001-------Express Tour--------1 start----------finished 8th
2002-------Essence of Dubai----2 starts--------finished 9th
2003-------Outa Here------------1 start---------finished 7th
2004 none
2005 none
2006 none
2007 none
2008 none
2009-------Regal Ransom--------3 starts -------finished 9th
2009-------Desert Party----------3 starts--------finished 14th
2010 none
2011 ------Master of Hounds-----1 start---------finished 5th
2012-------Daddy Long Legs -----1 start--------finished 20th
2013-------Lines of Battle --------1 start -------finished 7th
2014 none
2015 ------Mubtahij----------------4 starts ------finished 8th

 

[elevenblack301]

face)(*^% Looks to be 4 entries that are classified as dual qualifiers for this year's derby.

They are,

- Brody's Cause
- Exaggerator
- Mohaymen
- Mor Spirit



May be important to note because.............

In the last twelve out of fifteen years, all Kentucky Derby winners’ sires or damsires’ daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In eight of twelve
instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier

 

[Kaboom]

I cannot find the info I had on it ...ticks me off .... I believe it was something like .... horses that have a dosage between 4.00 - 5.65 that have a final 3 furlong time of under 37 4/5 have done real well at winning derbies .... Only bad thing is , I also have stat ...that there has only been one time where the dosage was over 4.00 in back to back Derby Wins ... 1998-99....

 

[Kaboom]

I think I calculated a 60% winners of the Derby carry the Trait .... Not shabby ....I think it was 26/43 ??? Unsure ...

 

[Kaboom]

I think I calculated a 60% winners of the Derby carry the Trait .... Not shabby ....I think it was 26/43 ??? Unsure ...

X Factor stuff

 

[Kaboom]

Found it ....Eleven ...here ya go ...

A very interesting side note: Horses that have a dosage index of 4.00 to 5.65 that have run a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) have won way more than their expected share of Derbies. I think the impact value for such a horse is around 2.00. American Pharaoh fit this above rule and won the Triple Crown. A high DI (4.00 to 5.65) does not deter a horse from winning the roses if it runs a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race

 

[elevenblack301]

Kaboom,

Thanks........................as always, very much appreciated................

Be well, my friend.............

 

[elevenblack301]

As to my comments of the UAE Derby horses, which entered the K Derby.................as to none of them getting close to hitting the board.........................I was noting the winner of the UAE race....................I believe that Master of Hounds was a 2nd place finisher in the 2011 UAE race.....................so would not pertain to my comments mentioned above...........so an easy throw out, or toss would be the winner of the uAE Derby this year.

 

[tanner12oz]

As to my comments of the UAE Derby horses, which entered the K Derby.................as to none of them getting close to hitting the board.........................I was noting the winner of the UAE race....................I believe that Master of Hounds was a 2nd place finisher in the 2011 UAE race.....................so would not pertain to my comments mentioned above...........so an easy throw out, or toss would be the winner of the uAE Derby this year.

lol your a riot

 

[Kaboom]

Copied ....

Here is an interesting tidbit from the xpressbet Derby guide: "Since 1920, 86 starters have competed in the Kentucky Derby without a prep race in April. They are: 86: 5-6-4.In seven of the last eight editions (2012 is only exception) at least one horse without an April prep race has finished in the Derby top three. Four out of five ‘no April prep’ Derby winners have come since 2008—Orb, 2013; Animal Kingdom, 2011; Mine That Bird, 2009 and Big Brown, 2008. Needles, 1956, rounds out the list of winners. Potential ‘no April prep’ Derby starters this year are GUN RUNNER, LANI, DESTIN, TOM’S READY and MO TOM."

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 Thanks again, Kaboom...................

OK here are the records for the following...........

........................Churchill Downs Record


Gun Runner................2-1-0-0
Brody’s Cause............1-1-0-0
Creator......................1-0-1-0
Mor Spirit..................1-0-1-0
Whitmore..................1-1-0-0
Tom’s Ready..............3-1-1-0
Mo Tom....................2-1-0-1




...........................Wet Stuff Record


Gun Runner..................1-0-0-0
Nyquist........................1-1-0-0
Exaggerator.................3-2-1-0
Outwork......................1-1-0-0
Brody’s Cause..............1-1-0-0
Creator........................1-0-1-0
Lani............................3-1-1-0
Mor Spirit...................2-0-2-0
Mohaymen..................1-0-0-0
Danzig Candy..............1-0-0-0
SB News.....................2-1-1-0
Shagaf.......................1-0-0-0
Whitmore...................2-0-1-0
Tom’s Ready...............1-0-0-0
Majesto.....................1-0-1-0
Trojan Nation.............1-0-1-0
Mo Tom.....................1-0-0-1
Fellowship.................2-0-0-1
Adventist..................1-0-0-1

Looks like it may be nice next week, but also nice to see who has been on the wet stuff..................................

Many thanks for all of the 'positive' contributions to this forum..........................that's what it is about.................

Be well all...........

 

[tanner12oz]

Just an fyi the reason why Destin has been off fir so long is to avoid a "bounce". His connections have some connections, are big proponents Of the sheets (a handicapping tool) and the sheets pointed to a bounce after his big step up in the tb derby. Instead of opting for another prep they decided to take it easy and avoid the potential bounce.

 

[elevenblack301]

Here is another very nice pedigree site to browse........................

http://www.pedigreequery.com/

Check out some of the entries for this year's derby..........great site................

be well all................

 

[Kaboom]

Just an fyi the reason why Destin has been off fir so long is to avoid a "bounce". His connections have some connections, are big proponents Of the sheets (a handicapping tool) and the sheets pointed to a bounce after his big step up in the tb derby. Instead of opting for another prep they decided to take it easy and avoid the potential bounce.

Solid stuff brotha ... good read ... where can I read up on that ??

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Time for some Derby Trivia and Facts,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Active Jockeys Most Derby Wins
Wins..................... Jockey
...3................ Kent Desormeaux
...3 ................Victor Espinoza
...3 ..................Gary Stevens



Fastest Derbies
Time ..................Horse .................Year
1:59 2/5 ...........Secretariat ............1973
1:59 4/5........... Monarchos............ 2001
2:00 .............Northern Dancer....... 1964
2:00 1/5....... Spend A Buck........... 1985
2:00 2/5......... Decidedly............... 1962


Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners
(Last 50 Years)
Year ........Horse ...........Choice ........Field ........Half
2002 ....War Emblem..... 9th............. 18 .............47
1988 ...Winning Colors. ..2nd .............17 ...........46 4/5
1985 ...Spend A Buck.... 2nd .............13 ..........45 4/5
1976..... Bold Forbes ......2nd ..............9.......... 45 4/5
1972.... Riva Ridge .........Fav.. ...........16 ..........47 3/5
1966 ....Kauai King .........Fav. ............15.......... 46 1/5


Winning Derby Post Positions ( when will post 17 finally win ? )
(Since 1900)
Post Wins............................... Post Wins
1 -12 ......................................11 -3
2 -9 ........................................12 -3
3 -8 ........................................13 -4
4 -11...................................... 14 -2
5 -13 ......................................15 -5
6 -6 ........................................16 -4
7 -8 ........................................17 -0
8 -10 ......................................18 -1
9 -4 ........................................19 -1
10-10...................................... 20 -2







Days Between Last Prep & Derby
(Last 10 Years)
Year................ Horse.................... Days
2015 ...........American Pharoah....... 21
2014 ...........California Chrome .......28
2013..................... Orb................. 35
2012 ............I’ll Have Another........ 28
2011............. Animal Kingdom .......42
2010 .................Super Saver......... 21
2009 ...............Mine That Bird .......34
2008 ...................Big Brown .........35
2007................. Street Sense ........21
2006.................... Barbaro............ 35


Less than a week to go now.......................be well all...

 

[elevenblack301]

Another little tidbit to munch on, .........................

Since 1990, the lowest winning Beyer Speed Figure for the Kentucky Derby came in 2014 when California Chrome won with a 97.

The only horses projected to start in this year’s Kentucky Derby that have produced a 97 or higher Beyer Speed Figure are: Exaggerator (103, 98), Nyquist (101), Destin (100, 98), Danzing Candy (100), Outwork (98) and Mor Spirit (97).

 

[Kaboom]

Cool stat bro ...

100 Beyer would, on average, equal a 105 BRIS and a 111 Equibase.....copied from another site ....

 

[elevenblack301]

Cool stat bro ...

100 Beyer would, on average, equal a 105 BRIS and a 111 Equibase.....copied from another site ....

Kaboom,

Beginning to think Whitmore has a good shot at the title here..................better Beyers, better Speed, and likes to sit back and take a big run in the end................he is going to pass up a lot of horses coming home.........

Have a great week.........................be well

 

[IMISREMEMBER]

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf


http://static.drf.com/DerbyContenders2016.pd

POST POSITIONS NOT PICKED YET BUT CAN HELP WITH HANDICAPPING EARLY

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Another little tidbit to munch on, .........................

Since 1990, the lowest winning Beyer Speed Figure for the Kentucky Derby came in 2014 when California Chrome won with a 97.

The only horses projected to start in this year’s Kentucky Derby that have produced a 97 or higher Beyer Speed Figure are: Exaggerator (103, 98), Nyquist (101), Destin (100, 98), Danzing Candy (100), Outwork (98) and Mor Spirit (97).

And Chrome pulled a 108 in the San Felipe, & a 107 in the SA derby, & then drops 10 beyer points & still wins.