Here are my top 5
1-Exaggerator his speed numbers as a 3-YO 102-101-101 very consistent. His Santa Anita Derby move to me was exceptional now I know some might say the wet track aided him. 2/4 wins came over wet surfaces. But this guy still hasn't shown us his best race yet.
2-Tom's Ready he's had 2 fast track starts at CD a win and a second. Both his races at CD produced a 88 speed rating which I understand is way beneath the top guys.
His 3-YO speed numbers have been 99-81-91
3-My Man Sam he broke from post 14 in the Blue Grass was 8 wide turning for home & flying. He's lightly raced (4) loads of upside. His 3-YO speed numbers 92-100-97
4-Mo Tom in the La Derby & Risen Star both races he had to check badly. He does have a win at
CD on a fast track 89 speed figure. 3-YO speed figures 98-95-94
5-Gun Runner has a win at CD. His 3-YO speed ratings 104-97
His only loss on a sloppy track.
On the Bubble Horses:
1-Brody's Cause
2-Mor Spirit
3-Destin
Here are my toss outs, which mean won't use them 1st,2nd or 3rd
1-Mohaymen
2-Nyquist
3-Outwork
1-Exaggerator his speed numbers as a 3-YO 102-101-101 very consistent. His Santa Anita Derby move to me was exceptional now I know some might say the wet track aided him. 2/4 wins came over wet surfaces. But this guy still hasn't shown us his best race yet.
2-Tom's Ready he's had 2 fast track starts at CD a win and a second. Both his races at CD produced a 88 speed rating which I understand is way beneath the top guys.
His 3-YO speed numbers have been 99-81-91
3-My Man Sam he broke from post 14 in the Blue Grass was 8 wide turning for home & flying. He's lightly raced (4) loads of upside. His 3-YO speed numbers 92-100-97
4-Mo Tom in the La Derby & Risen Star both races he had to check badly. He does have a win at
CD on a fast track 89 speed figure. 3-YO speed figures 98-95-94
5-Gun Runner has a win at CD. His 3-YO speed ratings 104-97
His only loss on a sloppy track.
On the Bubble Horses:
1-Brody's Cause
2-Mor Spirit
3-Destin
Here are my toss outs, which mean won't use them 1st,2nd or 3rd
1-Mohaymen
2-Nyquist
3-Outwork
All horses have raced at 2 ..... "Curse" can safely move forward as usual.
FWIW, FuPeg debuted Dec.11 in a sprint and lost. Broke maiden in route on Jan.
Would he have lost without the Dec debut? I don't know, but I doubt it.
Along those lines though, MY MAN SAM debuted in a sprint Dec 19 for a public workout.
He has routed and improved enough in his 3 subsequent races to earn enough points for a spot.
I'd imagine he'll be everybodies "longshot to watch". His pedigree is peculiar to me (Trappe Shot x Arch).
Not exactly FuPeg like (Mr.Prospector x Danzig).
Hello OC,
The shot at Coburn was about his wonderful 'blow up' after C Chrome lost the Belmont 2 years ago..................when he called other horse connections 'cowards' for skipping the Derby and Preakness and then taking on his great horse in the Belmont. So guess what, roll forward to the following year, and A Pharoah takes on all newcomers and does the 'impossible' , winning the Triple Crown................think that was Karma biting him in the ass....
Also, love what Chrome did then and still continues to do....................very happy that Coburn is out of the picture and no longer has any ownership with CC...........................another bit of karma.............he showed 'no class' as an owner.
[FONT="]Mo Tom [/FONT][FONT="]- who ran 4th in Louisiana Derby is now into the starting field with the defection of Cupid.
[FONT="]Gun Runner[/FONT] -on the 18th worked a Bullet 5F in 1:00 at Churchill Downs.
[FONT="]Mo Tom[/FONT] - worked a Fast 4F in 47:00 today at Churchill.
[FONT="]Mohaymen[/FONT] - worked a Bullet 4F in 47.80 today at Churchill.
[FONT="]Lani[/FONT] - the invader from Japan worked a very slow 5F in 1:06 - it was the slowest of 27 at the distance - maybe they train differently in Japan!
[FONT="]Victor Espinoza[/FONT] - will take the mount on Whitmore.
[FONT="]Joel Rosario[/FONT] - will take the mount on Shagaf.[/FONT][FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]Gun Runner[/FONT] -on the 18th worked a Bullet 5F in 1:00 at Churchill Downs.
[FONT="]Mo Tom[/FONT] - worked a Fast 4F in 47:00 today at Churchill.
[FONT="]Mohaymen[/FONT] - worked a Bullet 4F in 47.80 today at Churchill.
[FONT="]Lani[/FONT] - the invader from Japan worked a very slow 5F in 1:06 - it was the slowest of 27 at the distance - maybe they train differently in Japan!
[FONT="]Victor Espinoza[/FONT] - will take the mount on Whitmore.
[FONT="]Joel Rosario[/FONT] - will take the mount on Shagaf.[/FONT][FONT="]
[/FONT]
:think2: Some more of the prep race stuff..............
Past winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
....................WINNER................... TRAINER .............KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Exaggerator ................Keith Desormeaux
2015 .......Dortmund....................Bob Baffert...............................3rd
2014 .......California Chrome......Art Sherman ............................1st
2013 .......Goldencents................Doug F. O’Neill.........................17th
2012 .......I’ll Have Another .........Doug F. O’Neill.........................1st
2011 .......Midnight Interlude......Bob Baffert...............................16th
2010 .......Sidney’s Candy...........John W. Sadler........................17th
2009.......Pioneerof the Nile.......Bob Baffert...............................2nd
2008.......Colonel John ..............Eoin G. Harty...........................6th
2007.......Tiago...........................John A. Shirreffs.....................7th
2006.......Brother Derek..............Dan L. Hendricks.....................4th
2005.......Buzzards Bay..............Jeff Mullins..............................5th
Past winners of the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby finish
.......................WINNER .....................TRAINER ..........KY. DERBY FINISH
2015 .......Outwork......................
2015 .......Frosted........................Kiaran P. McLaughlin..............4th
2014 .......Wicked Strong............James A. Jerkens....................4th
2013 .......Verrazano....................Todd A. Pletcher......................14th
2012 .......Gemologist .................Todd A. Pletcher......................16th
2011 .......Toby’s Corner..............H. Graham Motion...................DNS
2010 .......Eskendereya................Todd A. Pletcher......................DNS
2009.......I Want Revenge...........Jeff Mullins..............................DNS
2008.......Tale of Ekati.................Barclay Tagg............................4th
2007.......Nobiz Like Shobiz.......Barclay Tagg............................10th
2006.......Bob and John..............Bob Baffert...............................17th
2005.......Bellamy Road..............Nicholas P. Zito........................7th
Past winners of the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
......................WINNER ...................TRAINER ................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Nyquist........................Doug O’Neill
2015 .......Materiality...................Todd A. Pletcher......................6th
2014 .......Constitution................Todd A. Pletcher......................DNS
2013 .......Orb ..............................Claude R. McGaughey III ........1st
2012 .......Take Charge Indy........Patrick B. Byrne.......................19th
2011 .......Dialed In......................Nicholas P. Zito........................8th
2010 .......Ice Box........................Nicholas P. Zito........................2nd
2009.......Quality Road ...............James A. Jerkens....................DNS
2008.......Big Brown ...................Richard E. Dutrow Jr................1st
2007.......Scat Daddy.................Todd A. Pletcher......................18th
2006.......Barbaro .......................Michael R. Matz.......................1st
2005.......High Fly.......................Nicholas P. Zito........................10th
Past winners of the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
......................WINNER ......................TRAINER............ KY. DERBY FINISH
2015 .......Gun Runner.................Steve Asmussen
2015 .......International Star........Michael J. Maker.....................SCR
2014 .......Vicar’s in Trouble........Michael J. Maker.....................19th
2013 .......Revolutionary..............Todd A. Pletcher......................3rd
2012 .......Hero of Order..............Gennadi Dorochenko ..............DNS
2011 .......Pants On Fire..............Kelly J. Breen...........................9th
2010 .......Mission Impazible......Todd A. Pletcher......................9th
2009.......Friesan Fire.................J. Larry Jones..........................18th
2008.......Pyro.............................Steven M. Asmussen ..............8th
2007.......Circular Quay..............Todd A. Pletcher......................6th
2006.......Not held
2005.......High Limit ...................Robert J. Frankel .....................20th
Past winners of the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
.........................WINNER ...................TRAINER .................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Creator........................Steve Asmussen
2015 .......American Pharoah......Bob Baffert...............................1st
2014 .......Danza..........................Todd A. Pletcher......................3rd
2013 .......Overanalyze................Todd A. Pletcher......................11th
2012 .......Bodemeister................Bob Baffert...............................2nd
2011 .......Archarcharch ..............William H. Fires.......................15th
2010 .......Line of David...............John W. Sadler........................18th
2009.......Papa Clem ..................Gary Stute................................4th
2008.......Gayego........................Paulo H. Lobo..........................17th
2007.......Curlin ..........................Steven M. Asmussen ..............3rd
2006.......Lawyer Ron.................Robert E. Holthus....................12th
2005.......Afleet Alex...................Timothy F. Ritchey...................3rd
....hope it helps you in capping.......be well all
Past winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
....................WINNER................... TRAINER .............KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Exaggerator ................Keith Desormeaux
2015 .......Dortmund....................Bob Baffert...............................3rd
2014 .......California Chrome......Art Sherman ............................1st
2013 .......Goldencents................Doug F. O’Neill.........................17th
2012 .......I’ll Have Another .........Doug F. O’Neill.........................1st
2011 .......Midnight Interlude......Bob Baffert...............................16th
2010 .......Sidney’s Candy...........John W. Sadler........................17th
2009.......Pioneerof the Nile.......Bob Baffert...............................2nd
2008.......Colonel John ..............Eoin G. Harty...........................6th
2007.......Tiago...........................John A. Shirreffs.....................7th
2006.......Brother Derek..............Dan L. Hendricks.....................4th
2005.......Buzzards Bay..............Jeff Mullins..............................5th
Past winners of the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby finish
.......................WINNER .....................TRAINER ..........KY. DERBY FINISH
2015 .......Outwork......................
2015 .......Frosted........................Kiaran P. McLaughlin..............4th
2014 .......Wicked Strong............James A. Jerkens....................4th
2013 .......Verrazano....................Todd A. Pletcher......................14th
2012 .......Gemologist .................Todd A. Pletcher......................16th
2011 .......Toby’s Corner..............H. Graham Motion...................DNS
2010 .......Eskendereya................Todd A. Pletcher......................DNS
2009.......I Want Revenge...........Jeff Mullins..............................DNS
2008.......Tale of Ekati.................Barclay Tagg............................4th
2007.......Nobiz Like Shobiz.......Barclay Tagg............................10th
2006.......Bob and John..............Bob Baffert...............................17th
2005.......Bellamy Road..............Nicholas P. Zito........................7th
Past winners of the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
......................WINNER ...................TRAINER ................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Nyquist........................Doug O’Neill
2015 .......Materiality...................Todd A. Pletcher......................6th
2014 .......Constitution................Todd A. Pletcher......................DNS
2013 .......Orb ..............................Claude R. McGaughey III ........1st
2012 .......Take Charge Indy........Patrick B. Byrne.......................19th
2011 .......Dialed In......................Nicholas P. Zito........................8th
2010 .......Ice Box........................Nicholas P. Zito........................2nd
2009.......Quality Road ...............James A. Jerkens....................DNS
2008.......Big Brown ...................Richard E. Dutrow Jr................1st
2007.......Scat Daddy.................Todd A. Pletcher......................18th
2006.......Barbaro .......................Michael R. Matz.......................1st
2005.......High Fly.......................Nicholas P. Zito........................10th
Past winners of the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
......................WINNER ......................TRAINER............ KY. DERBY FINISH
2015 .......Gun Runner.................Steve Asmussen
2015 .......International Star........Michael J. Maker.....................SCR
2014 .......Vicar’s in Trouble........Michael J. Maker.....................19th
2013 .......Revolutionary..............Todd A. Pletcher......................3rd
2012 .......Hero of Order..............Gennadi Dorochenko ..............DNS
2011 .......Pants On Fire..............Kelly J. Breen...........................9th
2010 .......Mission Impazible......Todd A. Pletcher......................9th
2009.......Friesan Fire.................J. Larry Jones..........................18th
2008.......Pyro.............................Steven M. Asmussen ..............8th
2007.......Circular Quay..............Todd A. Pletcher......................6th
2006.......Not held
2005.......High Limit ...................Robert J. Frankel .....................20th
Past winners of the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby finish
.........................WINNER ...................TRAINER .................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Creator........................Steve Asmussen
2015 .......American Pharoah......Bob Baffert...............................1st
2014 .......Danza..........................Todd A. Pletcher......................3rd
2013 .......Overanalyze................Todd A. Pletcher......................11th
2012 .......Bodemeister................Bob Baffert...............................2nd
2011 .......Archarcharch ..............William H. Fires.......................15th
2010 .......Line of David...............John W. Sadler........................18th
2009.......Papa Clem ..................Gary Stute................................4th
2008.......Gayego........................Paulo H. Lobo..........................17th
2007.......Curlin ..........................Steven M. Asmussen ..............3rd
2006.......Lawyer Ron.................Robert E. Holthus....................12th
2005.......Afleet Alex...................Timothy F. Ritchey...................3rd
....hope it helps you in capping.......be well all
Here is a little info on the SA derby this year...............................another little tidbit.......................might not mean anything this year, of course, but noteworthy none the less.....
"There certainly was nothing slow about Exaggerator on the far turn in this year’s Santa Anita Derby. He made an Arazi-like move while in the process of turning a 16-length deficit into a resounding 6 1/4-length triumph.
It is not an exaggeration to say only five horses have ever won the Santa Anita Derby by a larger margin than Exaggerator. And four of the five subsequently captured the Kentucky Derby -- Majestic Prince, Affirmed, Winning Colors and Sunday Silence. "
Be well all...................
"There certainly was nothing slow about Exaggerator on the far turn in this year’s Santa Anita Derby. He made an Arazi-like move while in the process of turning a 16-length deficit into a resounding 6 1/4-length triumph.
It is not an exaggeration to say only five horses have ever won the Santa Anita Derby by a larger margin than Exaggerator. And four of the five subsequently captured the Kentucky Derby -- Majestic Prince, Affirmed, Winning Colors and Sunday Silence. "
Be well all...................
:think2: I did some crunching of the Speed Numbers and here's my take.............
..................................My Speed Calculations.........Highest Speeed # ...........Better
Exaggerator.................................101.3...............................103..........................yes
Nyquist.........................................99.................................103
Mor Spirit.....................................98.3................................102
Gun Runner..................................97.6...............................104...........................yes
Matt King Coal.............................96.6................................101
My Man Sam................................96.3................................100
Danzig Candy...............................96.3...............................104
Creator..........................................96................................100...........................yes
Mo Tom........................................95.6...............................98............................yes
Suddenbreakingnews....................95.3................................99
Moyhamen...................................95.3...............................102
Destin............................................95...............................100
Whitmore......................................95.................................97............................yes
Gettysburg....................................94.6.............................100
Dazzling Gem.................................94................................98
Outwork........................................93.6..............................96............................yes
Collected.......................................93................................102
Fellowship.....................................92..................................95
Shagaf...........................................92.................................99
Adventist......................................91.6...............................94...........................yes
Cherry Wine.................................91.6................................93
Brodys Cause................................90.3...............................95
Toms Ready..................................90.3................................99
Majesto........................................90.3................................97
Azar.............................................90.3................................91...........................yes
Trojan Nation................................90...................................96...........................yes
Laoban........................................88.6.................................92
Star Hill.......................................88.6................................92
Discreetness................................88.3.................................93
Oscar Nominated.........................83.6..................................91............................yes
Be well all...............
..................................My Speed Calculations.........Highest Speeed # ...........Better
Exaggerator.................................101.3...............................103..........................yes
Nyquist.........................................99.................................103
Mor Spirit.....................................98.3................................102
Gun Runner..................................97.6...............................104...........................yes
Matt King Coal.............................96.6................................101
My Man Sam................................96.3................................100
Danzig Candy...............................96.3...............................104
Creator..........................................96................................100...........................yes
Mo Tom........................................95.6...............................98............................yes
Suddenbreakingnews....................95.3................................99
Moyhamen...................................95.3...............................102
Destin............................................95...............................100
Whitmore......................................95.................................97............................yes
Gettysburg....................................94.6.............................100
Dazzling Gem.................................94................................98
Outwork........................................93.6..............................96............................yes
Collected.......................................93................................102
Fellowship.....................................92..................................95
Shagaf...........................................92.................................99
Adventist......................................91.6...............................94...........................yes
Cherry Wine.................................91.6................................93
Brodys Cause................................90.3...............................95
Toms Ready..................................90.3................................99
Majesto........................................90.3................................97
Azar.............................................90.3................................91...........................yes
Trojan Nation................................90...................................96...........................yes
Laoban........................................88.6.................................92
Star Hill.......................................88.6................................92
Discreetness................................88.3.................................93
Oscar Nominated.........................83.6..................................91............................yes
Be well all...............
