2016 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

face)(*^% And the crunching of the Late Pace Numbers.....................really like to see these for the Derby....

................................My Late Pace Calculations.....................Best..............Better


Destin..........................................101.......................................109
My Man Sam.................................100.6....................................105
Suddenbreakingnews.....................100.3....................................103
Mo Tom..........................................99.......................................103
Fellowship......................................98.3.....................................109
Moyhamen....................................98.3......................................115
Exaggerator...................................98.3.....................................102
Creator..........................................98.3.....................................106
Nyquist..........................................98.......................................106
Brodys Cause................................95.6......................................104
Cherry Wine.................................95.3.......................................99
Majesto.........................................95........................................109
Mor Spirit....................................94.6......................................108
Whitmore....................................93.6.......................................97
Azar............................................93.6.......................................95
Trojan Nation...............................92.3......................................103
Oscar Nominated.........................91.6.......................................96....................yes
Matt King Coal..............................91........................................91
Collected......................................91.......................................106
Gettysburg.................................90.3......................................103
Gun Runner................................87,6......................................104...................yes
Star Hill......................................86........................................101
Dazzling Gem.............................84.3........................................93
Toms Ready................................83.6........................................96
Outwork......................................82.........................................95
Adventist...................................81.6........................................98
Discreetness................................81..........................................93...................yes
Danzig Candy............................80.3..........................................97
Laoban.....................................76.6..........................................85
Shagaf......................................75.6.........................................95


Have a great day....................be well...............

 

[Kaboom]

Thx for the work bro !

 

[elevenblack301]

#%() ....With just 2 weeks before the big day...............a few comments on the possible contenders.......


– Pace


Danzig Candy ...........Of all the pace setters this horse is the speed of the speed, and I think will be setting some very early fast fractions


Outwork................. He is lightly raced with only 4 starts........and will be out front with D Candy


Laoban................. Think he is more suited for sprints than the Derby distance



– Presser


Shagaf...............believe he will bounce back strong after that poor Wood performance


Adventist..........has done all racing in NY, but has moved forward in all races well


Nyquist............. never lost, keeps winning races he is not supposed to..........one of the CA based horse



– Off the Pace


Gun Runner..........think he has a big race inside him.........should be about 6th position sitting well


Mohaymen..........McLaughlin’s record in Derby is not good.


Mor Spirit..........he is begging for more distance, and does not know the word quit


Lani............... another Dubai horse, another Dubai disappointment


Tom’s Ready...........look out for Dallas Stewart again, he loves to bring in the longshots in the Derby


Majesto..............not much to like here


Exaggerator......a CA based horse which never takes a step back........in the superfecta in past 8 starts



– Closer


Destin.............coming off a long layoff............beginning to really like him though


Whitmore......... third best Oaklawn horse behind Creator and SBNews


Oscar Nominated.........he has never run on dirt yet


Suddenbreakingnews...........has hit exacta in 7 of 8 starts............he keeps on coming and should love the distance


Fellowship...........he is the 3rd best colt out of Florida, and should remain that way


Brody’s Cause.........after a 6 month layoff won the Blue Grass.....will he improve


Mo Tom......an unlucky colt that seems to find trouble, if he can stay clear


Creator........appears to be getting good at the right time, can he improve over his last effort


My Man Sam......lighly raced, and can move forward


Trojan Nation...........can’t see a Maiden winning the Derby



..................How will the pace setup for all of these closers and off the pace sorts ?

 

[tanner12oz]

Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
	This is a strike against: SuddenBreakingNews Whitmore

with geldings typically representing a small percentage of the field I dont think that statistic carries much weight

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

#%() ....With just 2 weeks before the big day...............a few comments on the possible contenders.......


– Pace


Danzig Candy ...........Of all the pace setters this horse is the speed of the speed, and I think will be setting some very early fast fractions


Outwork................. He is lightly raced with only 4 starts........and will be out front with D Candy


Laoban................. Think he is more suited for sprints than the Derby distance



– Presser


Shagaf...............believe he will bounce back strong after that poor Wood performance


Adventist..........has done all racing in NY, but has moved forward in all races well


Nyquist............. never lost, keeps winning races he is not supposed to..........one of the CA based horse



– Off the Pace


Gun Runner..........think he has a big race inside him.........should be about 6th position sitting well


Mohaymen..........McLaughlin’s record in Derby is not good.


Mor Spirit..........he is begging for more distance, and does not know the word quit


Lani............... another Dubai horse, another Dubai disappointment


Tom’s Ready...........look out for Dallas Stewart again, he loves to bring in the longshots in the Derby


Majesto..............not much to like here


Exaggerator......a CA based horse which never takes a step back........in the superfecta in past 8 starts



– Closer


Destin.............coming off a long layoff............beginning to really like him though


Whitmore......... third best Oaklawn horse behind Creator and SBNews


Oscar Nominated.........he has never run on dirt yet


Suddenbreakingnews...........has hit exacta in 7 of 8 starts............he keeps on coming and should love the distance


Fellowship...........he is the 3rd best colt out of Florida, and should remain that way


Brody’s Cause.........after a 6 month layoff won the Blue Grass.....will he improve


Mo Tom......an unlucky colt that seems to find trouble, if he can stay clear


Creator........appears to be getting good at the right time, can he improve over his last effort


My Man Sam......lighly raced, and can move forward


Trojan Nation...........can’t see a Maiden winning the Derby



..................How will the pace setup for all of these closers and off the pace sorts ?

Back at it Eleven! Long time no "see" post! I'm waiting until we get closer to put in the work. Additionally, I'm waiting until post draw, haha. Over the years there were "mega" tickets posted that would cost a couple of grand. Besides that this year, I think we or definitely you, need to post your top best short money tickets. For example, post a trifecta key, super-key, maybe a super wheel-something that brings home a big payday but doesn't cost a couple of grand...you know, the conservative gambler's approach-something more narrowed down!

 

[tanner12oz]

Back at it Eleven! Long time no "see" post! I'm waiting until we get closer to put in the work. Additionally, I'm waiting until post draw, haha. Over the years there were "mega" tickets posted that would cost a couple of grand. Besides that this year, I think we or definitely you, need to post your top best short money tickets. For example, post a trifecta key, super-key, maybe a super wheel-something that brings home a big payday but doesn't cost a couple of grand...you know, the conservative gambler's approach-something more narrowed down!

what you mean.posting 20k in bets with monopoly money...oh wait money pooled together with friends isn't beneficial to anybody?!?! I've been harping on this for years but yet year in and year out we see like 60k worth of ficticious bets throughout the triple crown season.

 

[elevenblack301]

Back at it Eleven! Long time no "see" post! I'm waiting until we get closer to put in the work. Additionally, I'm waiting until post draw, haha. Over the years there were "mega" tickets posted that would cost a couple of grand. Besides that this year, I think we or definitely you, need to post your top best short money tickets. For example, post a trifecta key, super-key, maybe a super wheel-something that brings home a big payday but doesn't cost a couple of grand...you know, the conservative gambler's approach-something more narrowed down!

Squeeze,

Nice to hear from you....................missed you last year....................and always look forward to your input......

Don't believe I posted any tickets last year or the year before maybe.................., just the 'horses' that I liked............................will do the same this year..................but if you like I can post or 'pm' you a few exotic keys which I will play.....

Be well..............

 

[elevenblack301]

:aktion033 A very good site to take a look at..................

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2016/2016_kentucky_derby_contenders.htm


Be well.......................

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Squeeze,

Nice to hear from you....................missed you last year....................and always look forward to your input......

Don't believe I posted any tickets last year or the year before maybe.................., just the 'horses' that I liked............................will do the same this year..................but if you like I can post or 'pm' you a few exotic keys which I will play.....

Be well..............

Eleven,

I wasn't referring to the actual posting of a "hard" ticket that you purchased. Instead I was looking for the best of the best bets. For example, after the drawing of post positions, I would post my best "locks" sort of speak.

Trifecta Key: 1 horse over 7 others for a dollar would cost $42. Small wager, perhaps big payday.
Superfecta Key: 1 horse over 5 others for a dollar would cost $60.

Additionally, I'd post a 5 horse trifecta box for a dollar that would cost $60 and maybe a superfecta box for a dollar; 4 horses would cost $24.

Of course you need that number 1 horse, and it is a bit like playing the lottery but with better odds. I'd rather invest $200-$300 and see if I hit it big instead of taxing my brain, time, and money to waste a few grand on a ton of tickets.

Therefore, come may 6th (Need a day to process), I'd post what you would consider "The Best of The Best" plays. I shall do the same, as well.

If we concentrate our efforts we may get lucky. Plus I'll still have the dough to slam a nice dinner down my gullet and play the tables to hopefully "shut the lights out in the casino!"
[FONT=go_corbel]
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After all isn't horse racing 10% skill and 90% luck? Let's get this one before the odds go way down in the Preakness!

 

[elevenblack301]

Eleven,

I wasn't referring to the actual posting of a "hard" ticket that you purchased. Instead I was looking for the best of the best bets. For example, after the drawing of post positions, I would post my best "locks" sort of speak.
................................................,
After all isn't horse racing 10% skill and 90% luck? Let's get this one before the odds go way down in the Preakness!

Squeeze,

Will do, my friend...........................the more we share the better our chances.............................thanks.....................be well

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Was watching some of the replays of the prep races last night.....................starting to think one can throw out Moyhamen's poor Florida Derby.....................believe he has a monster effort ready.............and if Exaggerator shows the same 'kick' he had in the Santa Anita, he will pull away down the stretch................

Fun stuff...............................almost a week to go...................

 

[wabashwonders]

Welcome back 11black and thanks again for posting all the info. First off, I agree with your above statement about Mohaymen. I think he will rebound with a big effort in derby. Personally, I think this is as wide open as any Derby in recent years. Nyquist is a standout but can he get the distance? Still a lot to look at but horses I like right now are Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner, Creator and Mo Tom. I think the pace will be very fast and a closer will definitely win this. Good luck with your plays.

 

[elevenblack301]

Welcome back 11black and thanks again for posting all the info. First off, I agree with your above statement about Mohaymen. I think he will rebound with a big effort in derby. Personally, I think this is as wide open as any Derby in recent years. Nyquist is a standout but can he get the distance? Still a lot to look at but horses I like right now are Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner, Creator and Mo Tom. I think the pace will be very fast and a closer will definitely win this. Good luck with your plays.

wabashwonders,

thanks for the 'welcoming'...................always look forward to your insight and plays.......................I also think a fast pace will set up the back of the pack....should be a fun derby to watch and hopefully cash some tickets.

have a great time at Keeneland today...............

be well.............

 

[Kaboom]

Looking for the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) ... Do you have a breakdown for this bro ??? Appreciate it !!!

 

[elevenblack301]

Looking for the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) ... Do you have a breakdown for this bro ??? Appreciate it !!!

Kaboom,

Was able to find these.........................hope it helps you.....................and all of us

Horse
Race
Final time
Final 3/8ths




Oscar Nominated
Spiral Stakes
1:51.12
:37.29


Creator
Arkansas Derby
1.50.14
37 .44




Nyquist
Florida Derby
1:49.11
:37.72


Fellowship
Florida Derby
1:49.82
:37.77


SBN
Arkansas Derby
1.50.76
37.84




Majesto
Florida Derby
1:49.65
:37.89


Brody’s Cause
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.38
:37.94


My Man Sam
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.68
:37.92


Gun Runner
Louisiana Derby
1:51.06
:38.04


Exaggerator
Santa Anita Derby
1:49.66
:38.09


Lani
UAE Derby
1:58.41 (9.5 furlongs)
:38.16


Cherry Wine
Blue Grass Stakes
1:50.70
:38.18


Mo Tom
Louisiana Derby
1:52.06
:38.21


Tom’s Ready
Louisiana Derby
1:51.81
:38.29


Dazzling Gem
Louisiana Derby
1:52.02
:38.83


Mohaymen
Florida Derby
1:50.49
:38.98


Trojan Nation
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:39.10


Laoban
Blue Grass Stakes
1:51.26
:39.71


Mor Spirit
Santa Anita Derby
1:50.83
:40.00


Outwork
Wood Memorial
1:52.98
:40.66


Shagaf
Wood Memorial
1:53.64
:40.80


Danzing Candy
Santa Anita Derby
1:52.16
:42.04

......................listed them from fastest final 3 furlongs on downwards................

 

[Kaboom]

Thanks bud ... This is great !! Appreciate it ....

 

[elevenblack301]

Thanks bud ... This is great !! Appreciate it ....

Kaboom,

You are very welcome,.................. love doing this stuff and hopefully helping out some people along the way..............

Also, it must be noted, that not all of this ' info ' comes directly from me, as you know, I have a group of very close friends that also love this sport and help me greatly...............even though some individuals think that this group of friends is fictitious........they are real and truly a blessing..........

That being said, one of them came up with this a little early for me and you,................


Here is a list of the horses that have that X-Factor..................or the large heart gene.........


Fun stuff, when you have time , read about it, and about Secretariat’s heart............amazing...




Derby Horses with the X Factor


- Outwork
- Nyquist
- Gun Runner
- Danzig Candy
- Brody’s Cause


So..........just about a week to go...........................be well all.............

 

[elevenblack301]

Thanks bud ... This is great !! Appreciate it ....

Kaboom,

Forgot to ask.................what angle or trend do you know about this final 3 furlong times.............? thanks

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: A little more on the X Factor...........

.................The years when horses with the X factor won the Kentucky Derby:

Note that there are no more than three years between winners who may carry the X-Factor gene.


1973 – 1975 – yes
1976 - no
1977 – 1981 – yes
1982 – 1983 - no
1984 – yes
1985 – 1986 - no
1987 – yes
1988 – 1989 - no
1990 – yes
1991 - 1992 - no
1993 – 2000 - yes
2003 - no
2004 - yes
2005 – 2007 - no
2008 – yes
2009 - no
2010 - yes
2011 – 2012 – no
2013 – yes
2014 – yes
2015 - yes

............3 years in a row and counting ??????

 

[elevenblack301]

face)(*^% And just a few thoughts or comments on...............

......Over the last decade, the top three Wood Memorial finishers haven't hit the top three in the Kentucky Derby. However, they have completed the Derby superfecta the last three years. Something to keep in mind.

......Concerning Oscar Nominated
The last, and only horse with a strong turf pedigree tocapture the Kentucky Derby was Animal Kingdom, who incidentally, had his last prep in the Spiral Stakes.


.....Concerning Lani
Six UAE Derby heroes have raced in the Kentucky Derby. None have come close to hitting the board.


.....Concerning Gun Runner
only two Louisiana Derby champs have won the Roses but Louisiana Derby grads have captured the place spot in the Kentucky Derby the last two years.