TCG,
Heres a link on DRF that will give you all the updated workout info for the contenders..
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-workouts-churchill-downs
Heres a link on DRF that will give you all the updated workout info for the contenders..
http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-workouts-churchill-downs
Gary Young a clocker at Churchill said he thought the horse that had the best workout of the day on Saturday was Medal Count
Thanks for the link....................Interesting article..............makes me not like C Chrome.....................think his connections may have put the 'kibash' on him.................
I admit he is probably one of the best 3 year olds at this time, but do not like that he is not going to work on the Churchill surface.................think that was a bad choice.............and I believe he is not going to get the trip that he normally does...........
Well, one week to go............................
Found this live stream to watch the Derby workouts.. Live 8-9 AM (ET)
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts/live
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts/live
I guess Sundays workouts are the last of them? The rest of the week will be galloping, etc?
Churchill is Medal Counts homebase, EB, so I would assume there is enough comfort level there with him and the track. I'd also assume Romans would not have entered if he hadn't shown well in his previous works over the track.
But I like him quite a bit too. At least as an underneath use in exotics. In fact, along with Hoppertunity, he's probably amongst the two I'm most comfortable playing to hit the board in this race. Being a Dynaformer colt, we know he's going to have more than enough bred into him to get the 10f distance. Also lets not forget that that these colts that were sired by Dynaformer have had a really great success rate in the Derby. He's only had the four, but he has produced a winner in Barbaro and then two others that finished 3rd. 75% in the money. Not bad. The other Dynaformer colt didn`t embarrass himself all that bad either in finishing 7th. Medal Count`s stamina and running style says he should be passing tire horeses late, and I like that he ran the last 3 furlongs of the Blue Grass in the exact same times (12.27 for the 7f mark, 12.26 for the 8f mark, and 12.27 for the last furlong).
I also have to respect Dale Roman`s abilty to get these turf & poly runners ready to run well on the Churchill dirt. Pretty sure he has only had the two runners that went from turf then into the DErby and both finished 3rd and only a head out of 2nd. Paddy O`Prado and Dullahan. Romans has also had tremendous success in getting turf horses ready to run well on the Chruchill dirt in general as the following tweets by Dougie Salvatore from yesterday morning illustrates;
`Not counting races rained off-the-turf, Dale Romans went 6-for-12 (50% wins) with horses going from turf-to-dirt at Churchill Downs in 2013.`and `In fact, in last years Iroquois, 34/1 Cleburne & 26/1 Smart Cover made up an unlikely $500 exacta. Both horses went turf-to-dirt for Romans.
Maybe not the strongest win candidate in the field. But definitely one that will feature prominently on my tickets as an underneath selection in exotics.
Nice write up & very informative.......makes me like Medal Count even more for my exotics.
Andrick,
Glad you like the thread.......................most everyone does a 'wonderful' job contributing and as always I appreciate it all the more............................A BIG THANKS SHOUT OUT............
Now talking about contributing, really like your post about Medal Count...........................didn't know he calls Churchill home..................................makes me salivate a little more now...................also like the other horse you mention, the 'hopper'.........................but he has that didn't run as a 2 year old baggage..........................
I do think he didn't go all out in his last prep when he finished 2nd..............it appeared to me that his jock was just letting him run it out without any prodding to get him to go............like he was saving him for something bigger and better..................... could be ??
Thanks again, and looking forward to your plays sometime this week.............be well
I guess Ring Weekend bled & never recovered like the guy said in this thread.......he's out of the derby & Commanding Curve has replaced him.
Cheers EB and please allow me to apologize in advance for the length of this all.
Agree entirely with you in regards to Hoppertunity and his SA Derby performances. I didn't see him as being fully cranked either. But I thought it was a nice solid effort for what it was and for how that track has been playing all spring. Just a good prep race to keep the fitness level high and without overdoing it. Really like how he is bred for stamina (top 2 or 3 in the field) and while he's not going to blow people away with his turn of foot, he does have that consistent running style that grinds out fractions at 12 and change, 12 and change, 12 and change, etc. In addition to his stamina he also has some beautiful length to his stride, which becomes a great benefit to a horse once fatigue sets in with him and the other horses around him. The curse? Yeah, something to think about. But like other curses that have fallen in recent years, I think that one is going to fall soon enough as well. Is it this year? Maybe not, so while I might play him on top on a couple of tickets, he'll be on all my tickets as an underneath play at least.
Getting back to the Santa Anita Derby, that's not a race that I'm going to use much and transferring over to the Kentucky Derby. You had Hoppertunity who probably wasn't fully cranked. You had Candy Boy who was coming off a two month layoff and wasn't on form. Then you had a bunch of no-hopers filling out the field. California Chrome had everything working in his favour that race. He got to ride what was a very apparent track bias all spring by laying off a maiden over soft fractions on a track that was speed favouring to some historical levels. usually is a speed favouring track. But this track is was pretty ridiculous with how tight they roll that place and boosted speeds.
- A race or two before Chrome's San Felipe, a rather weak maiden runner named Nome wired the field and even opened up on them while running a final time of 1:08.95 over 6f. A time that, as is, is right there with the winners of the Breeders Cup Sprint times over the last 5 times it was run on a non-SA track. Nome's time was also two seconds faster than he had ever run at that distance in 6 tries before and since. From my understanding, he was always a horse that was on/near the lead, but folded from fatigue over the last furlong of a race. Not that day, though. He couldn't be caught.
- Of course, that same day we saw Game On Dude wire the field in the Big Cap, setting a stakes record by over a half a second in the process, and almost setting the world record for 10f. His final of 1:58.17 was only a couple of tenths off of Bid's record for the distance and was apx 1.5 seconds faster that Game On Dude had run before on that track. Obviously a very nice horse, but...
- The Day of the SA Derby we saw a 3 year-old maiden winner take a 7f race on the dirt in 1:21.64. A time that, as is, wins the 7f G1 King's Bishop 9 times out of 10. We saw a horse in a claimer on the dirt towards the end of the card win a 6f race in 1:08.27. Again, that time wins the last five non-SA Breeders Cup Sprint race and does so by open length. We had a mile race on dirt for claimers that was won in a time that compares favourably to some of the major G1 races at that distance.
- It was the California handicapper for DRF, Brad Free, wrote a couple of weeks ago that out of then-last 20 dirt races at SA, 14 were won via wire jobs, and the other 6 were won by sitting a length or two off the leaders. None of them came from any sort of position while running off the pace.
- Considering he just raced yesterday, we also had Bayern earlier in the year. Wires an okay allowance field on the SA track and did so by winning by over 15 lengths. A lot of people were raving about it and there was plenty of talk about him possibly being the eventual Kentucky Derby favourite. He gets taken off that track, runs on a couple of lackluster races on different ones, and now looks like he'd be one of the longest shots on the board if he had entered the Derby. A SA track bias and the appropriate running style seems to have flattered Bayern based on what we've seen over the last two.
I know a lot of people are very high on California Chrome and probably a few are on here as well. Can't say I'd blame them for that either, because I do too think he's very talented. I'm just not sure I see him as being nearly as talented when taken off that Blazing fast SA track, and thus he'll be a play against for me. Especially if he's 2-1 or thereabouts. I'll give him the chance to beat me and if he does it wouldn't be the first nor the last time it happens. But I'll be okay with that, though, because parts of me would love to see him transfer his form over and become a racing superstar over the next 5 weeks. Like any horse racing fan.
Again, my apologies for the length
