what would you think if

[vitterd]

Of course it's not you fucking retard.

Go find your massive chalks to bet. And when you lose another -7 dime fav.....do the math to figure out what percentage you need to hit to get back to +

Loser

 

[MantisToboggan]

He does not think he would be +EV in this situation, so he's not taking the bet. He's right, many common sense, experienced gamblers would bet on Mich in this situation, knowing what we know about their first half results, and their full season expectations, as both are good cappers. I know, I know, the "season" is just an artificial boundary to the strict math, roulette wheel crowd. But that's not what sports betting is. Sports are divided into seasons. It's what we go by as sports bettors in calculating how we did. It's more likely than not that Vit would not maintain a 75% ATS record all season. It's more likely than not that Mich would not maintain a 35% ATS record all season. They both would drift to the 55% or so mark that reflects their past records(I have no idea what their actual past records are, I'm assuming they are relatively equivalent cappers over the course of most seasons, I know they are both good NFL cappers).
You know this. Remember your thread bitching and moaning about your bad beats, and some bet that it would continue. If it was just "math", you would just keep betting mechanically because you know you would win, if you think you're a winning bettor. No feelings involved, just "math".

For a full season, I have no idea, if Vit is +EV vs Mich, but that's a bet he would be willing to take, in any sport, as he thinks he is.

This is not true. This is a fallacy. They will regress to their normal averages for the 2nd half of the season. If they are both 55%, they would both finish 55% for the 2nd half of the season.

 

[MantisToboggan]

This place needs to get a statistics professor on the payroll.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Also, Guesser, if Vit is +EV for the full season, he is +EV for the half season.

 

[festeringZit]

This is not true. This is a fallacy. They will regress to their normal averages for the 2nd half of the season. If they are both 55%, they would both finish 55% for the 2nd half of the season.

Good luck Mantis, these two are incredibly dense.

 

[vitterd]

Good luck Mantis, these two are incredibly dense.

Get back to bingo dipshit.

 

[The Guesser]

Also, Guesser, if Vit is +EV for the full season, he is +EV for the half season.

They have 10 year records of both being Approx 55% ATS in baseball.
Vit is hitting 75% for the 1st half of this one. Mich is hitting 35% for the 1st half of this one. Who are you betting on to have a better record in the 2nd half?

 

[festeringZit]

Go find your massive chalks to bet. And when you lose another -7 dime fav.....do the math to figure out what percentage you need to hit to get back to +

Loser

I have a sneaky suspicion I made more money betting arbs in the few years I bet sports seriously than you have in the last 10 years.

Pretty much everything you say in here is a lie, AceBB and I have exposed you for being the clear pathological liar that you are.

But, keep posting away, just realize that we know the truth about you.

 

[The Guesser]

This is not true. This is a fallacy. They will regress to their normal averages for the 2nd half of the season. If they are both 55%, they would both finish 55% for the 2nd half of the season.

Except real world results of actual sports betting are more likely than not to resemble this "fallacy".

 

[MantisToboggan]

They have 10 year records of both being Approx 55% ATS in baseball.
Vit is hitting 75% for the 1st half of this one. Mich is hitting 35% for the 1st half of this one. Who are you betting on to have a better record in the 2nd half?

If both are documented at 55%, the answer is neither. There's no advantage either way. I recommend you consult a statistics professor if you don't believe me. I've tried to explain this every way I can.

 

[festeringZit]

They have 10 year records of both being Approx 55% ATS in baseball.
Vit is hitting 75% for the 1st half of this one. Mich is hitting 35% for the 1st half of this one. Who are you betting on to have a better record in the 2nd half?

That's an irrelevant question. Vitterd took the bet because he touted himself as being the better capper, so to assume they both
are at 55% is 100% irrelevant.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Except real world results of actual sports betting are more likely than not to resemble this "fallacy".

I'm curious what you base this theory on?

 

[PatsFan1283]

It would be an even money bet if that is the only known info!

Someone on the main board was saying their wife teaches and they asked her about it, BleedingPurple said he was gonna ask his friend like this is some question you need a PhD in multivariable calculus to understand and we need experts to weigh in.

 

[festeringZit]

Except real world results of actual sports betting are more likely than not to resemble this "fallacy".

Except that you are 100% wrong, and clearly just as stupid and retarded as Vitterd. Idiot.

 

[vitterd]

I have a sneaky suspicion I made more money betting arbs in the few years I bet sports seriously than you have in the last 10 years.

Pretty much everything you say in here is a lie, AceBB and I have exposed you for being the clear pathological liar that you are.

But, keep posting away, just realize that we know the truth about you.

Your suspicions are like Acebb picks.....WRONG.

There are no lies, that's just you two retards saying the word over and over again in hopes it will come true and somebody will believe you.

Neither of you miserable human beings know the truth about anything.

funny you mention Acebb. You are both alike, losers who troll me everyday.

 

[festeringZit]

It would be an even money bet if that is the only known info!

Someone on the main board was saying their wife teaches and they asked her about it, BleedingPurple said he was gonna ask his friend like this is some question you need a PhD in multivariable calculus to understand and we need experts to weigh in.

I have a Masters Degree in a math intensive field, you don't need to consult anyone - this is junior high level math.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't want to add another layer to this question, but I would actually bet Vitterd in that spot if I had to. If he hit 75% it is possible he has gotten better at capping from his previous results, whereas Mich at 25% it is possible his methods have become antiquated and his 55% edge may regress back to the true market mean of 50%.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Except that you are 100% wrong, and clearly just as stupid and retarded as Vitterd. Idiot.

Come on, you should've let him respond to my question before telling him that's not true. Answer could've been a classic.

 

[festeringZit]

Your suspicions are like Acebb picks.....WRONG.

There are no lies, that's just you two retards saying the word over and over again in hopes it will come true and somebody will believe you.

Neither of you miserable human beings know the truth about anything.

funny you mention Acebb. You are both alike, losers who troll me everyday.

You already have over 20 confirmed lies just today. Idiot.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I don't want to add another layer to this question, but I would actually bet Vitterd in that spot if I had to. If he hit 75% it is possible he has gotten better at capping from his previous results, whereas Mich at 25% it is possible his methods have become antiquated and his 55% edge may regress back to the true market mean of 50%.

I was going to mention this earlier, but I had concerns about what direction this could lead us and how long I'd waste there.