what would you think if

[BleedingPurple]

Threads like this with the constant back and forth over who has won money, who has the better life, and who is the fucking liar are ridiculous and too routine. Yet here I am reading some of it.

 

[vitterd]

This was posted after I went 0-3 in MLB



So was this:



Face it maggot, you've made a complete fool out of yourself yet again.

You keep posting the exact same thing over and over again like a lunatic. Even Scott had said something to you about using that.

You were normal for a short period and then you went off the wall again. Then you quit posting picks because you they were embarrassing. Just like you saving every post of mine.....it's scary and hysterically pathetic

 

[hehateme82]

Wait, Finch is a failed tout? Now that makes a lot of sense.

 

[JDeuce]

Yeah.....why would he start with such a huge deficit to make up. And why would I give away that huge lead for a waaaayyy shorter time period.

Of course the sample size matters.....a donkey can win a quick short contest. But he can't beat me over longer period. It's similar to poker, any idiot can get lucky for a few nights....but the better player will win over the long term.

Your logic is off in your first sentence. Your record to date has absolutely nothing at all to do with any proposed contest. It's completely irrelevant since it won't be factored in. Both records will be 0-0 at the start of the bet.

Anyone advising you to walk away from what you are convinced is a +EV situation knows zero about gambling or probability. I don't know why you're convinced the start of a season is the only way to go.

 

[vitterd]

Your logic is off in your first sentence. Your record to date has absolutely nothing at all to do with any proposed contest. It's completely irrelevant since it won't be factored in. Both records will be 0-0 at the start of the bet.

Anyone advising you to walk away from what you are convinced is a +EV situation knows zero about gambling or probability. I don't know why you're convinced the start of a season is the only way to go.

It's pretty simple. He could win a quick contest and even though I bury him for the full season, I owe him a dime. I'm not gonna pay a guy I beat over a season by 50k. That would just be silly.

 

[festeringZit]

Your logic is off in your first sentence. Your record to date has absolutely nothing at all to do with any proposed contest. It's completely irrelevant since it won't be factored in. Both records will be 0-0 at the start of the bet.

Anyone advising you to walk away from what you are convinced is a +EV situation knows zero about gambling or probability. I don't know why you're convinced the start of a season is the only way to go.

Of course he's 100% wrong. It's simple junior high level math, and people tried for 2 days to educate him, he's really
just too fucking retarded. Seriously.

 

[festeringZit]

It's pretty simple. He could win a quick contest and even though I bury him for the full season, I owe him a dime. I'm not gonna pay a guy I beat over a season by 50k. That would just be silly.

Except that the logic behind your decisions from the beginning have been really retarded, I mean extremely stupid.

"Michelangelo has been running so bad, therefore he has an advantage"

BWHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAH

You can't make up how stupid this is, AND the fact that he's sticking with it.

 

[vitterd]

Of course he's 100% wrong. It's simple junior high level math, and people tried for 2 days to educate him, he's really
just too fucking retarded. Seriously.

Can you just fuck off? I mean you bet -7000 chalks in basketball and tennis.....you're in no position to discuss sports gambling at all.

 

[festeringZit]

Can you just fuck off? I mean you bet 7,000 chalks in baseball and tennis.....you're in no position to discuss sports gambling at all.

I will never stop pointing out your lies and stupidity. I look at it as my civic duty to society.

 

[festeringZit]

Can you just fuck off? I mean you bet -7000 chalks in basketball and tennis.....you're in no position to discuss sports gambling at all.

Yet another lie from the site pathological liar. That makes at least 20 lies for the day alone. It's what we all expect.

 

[JDeuce]

It's pretty simple. He could win a quick contest and even though I bury him for the full season, I owe him a dime. I'm not gonna pay a guy I beat over a season by 50k. That would just be silly.

Umm, ok.

So if a sports book has a successful January-June, they should shut down for the rest of the year because they might lose it back? +EV be damned?

 

[vitterd]

I will never stop pointing out your lies and stupidity. I look at it as my civic duty to society.

You are mentally ill. You and Acebb can get a group therapy rate somewhere.

I mean, you bet outrageous chalk, you laughed at me for betting cavs in the series( after they were down 3-1 of course).....so you should never talk about gambling. You bet like a retard.

 

[BleedingPurple]

Umm, ok.

So if a sports book has a successful January-June, they should shut down for the rest of the year because they might lose it back? +EV be damned?

Totally different, they are the sharp of the sharp and get the VIG

 

[vitterd]

Umm, ok.

So if a sports book has a successful January-June, they should shut down for the rest of the year because they might lose it back? +EV be damned?

Ummmm no. not comparable.

Mich can beat me in a quickie contest but he can't over a full season. It's me just throwing away the lead I would have built if he wanted this contest 4 months ago.

 

[BleedingPurple]

Totally different, they are the sharp of the sharp and get the VIG

Also they do go through periods where they lose and win,,,, like I said is big difference with the Vig and gambler's money management.

 

[festeringZit]

Ummmm no. not comparable.

Mich can beat me in a quickie contest but he can't over a full season. It's me just throwing away the lead I would have built if he wanted this contest 4 months ago.

It's not throwing away a lead you fucking retard, it's a totally separate bet.

You are comically stupid.

 

[The Guesser]

Your logic is off in your first sentence. Your record to date has absolutely nothing at all to do with any proposed contest. It's completely irrelevant since it won't be factored in. Both records will be 0-0 at the start of the bet.

Anyone advising you to walk away from what you are convinced is a +EV situation knows zero about gambling or probability. I don't know whyyou're convinced the start of a season is the only way to go.

He does not think he would be +EV in this situation, so he's not taking the bet. He's right, many common sense, experienced gamblers would bet on Mich in this situation, knowing what we know about their first half results, and their full season expectations, as both are good cappers. I know, I know, the "season" is just an artificial boundary to the strict math, roulette wheel crowd. But that's not what sports betting is. Sports are divided into seasons. It's what we go by as sports bettors in calculating how we did. It's more likely than not that Vit would not maintain a 75% ATS record all season. It's more likely than not that Mich would not maintain a 35% ATS record all season. They both would drift to the 55% or so mark that reflects their past records(I have no idea what their actual past records are, I'm assuming they are relatively equivalent cappers over the course of most seasons, I know they are both good NFL cappers).
You know this. Remember your thread bitching and moaning about your bad beats, and some bet that it would continue. If it was just "math", you would just keep betting mechanically because you know you would win, if you think you're a winning bettor. No feelings involved, just "math".

For a full season, I have no idea, if Vit is +EV vs Mich, but that's a bet he would be willing to take, in any sport, as he thinks he is.

 

[The Guesser]

Wait, Finch is a failed tout? Now that makes a lot of sense.

Wonder what Pathetic Tout name he used? "Scott Landau" was already taken.

 

[vitterd]

It's not throwing away a lead you fucking retard, it's a totally separate bet.

You are comically stupid.

Of course it is. Because when the season ends....I will be way ahead of him but he could win a short contest. It would be idiotic for me to take a bet that ends where I beat him senseless over the entire baseball season.

 

[festeringZit]

Of course it is. Because when the season ends....I will be way ahead of him but he could win a short contest. It would be idiotic for me to take a bet that ends where I beat him senseless over the entire baseball season.

Of course it's not you fucking retard.