The two still aren't similar. You're comparing a sure loser to a +EV bet. I get that you're not comfortable taking the bet based on sample size, and I agree that it is a valid concern.
Except it isn't...
1200 remaining MLB games = "shortened season"
256 NFL games = "loooooong season"
1200 independent events vs 256 independent events.
Seriously...is he broke or completely retarded?