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09-11-2008, 03:19 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #
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trentmoney <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5742522", true); </script>
RX Senior
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: New York
Posts: 1,423
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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> 3* maryland +14.5
1* maryland +600 6*/1* cris
this game is a cornucopia of handicapping philosophies... on so many levels i feel that this is the type of game that defines handicappers.
First off, there is absolutely no way you should be playing cal at this number... now that's not to say they won't cover; i can't tell the future. But if you were daring enough to lay -13.5 last week at wazzu a week after ok st was only laying -6/7, consider that the time you got away w/ laying heavy chalk on a road team. To think you can get away with that type of wagering two weeks in a row is not recommended, let alone having to now cross a key number in 14 against a better team than last week.
Let's look at maryland. Obviously, this team has not played to it's potential, as just 2 weeks ago some people thought they could be the sleeper team in the acc. Week 1 vs delaware they moved the ball, gaining over 400 yds offense, but their fg kicker missed 3x, and a fouth time in fg range friedgen decided to go for it on 4th and long as opposed to subjecting his kicker to a long fg. Maryland was also pinnned inside the 5 yd line twice by excellent punts so a 70 yd drive resulted in a long missed fg and a 40 yd drive resulted in a punt. By the 2nd half this game slowed to a crawl w/ both teams relying on the run: 80 rush attempts to only 44 pass attempts. After a qb change for game 2 the maryland offense drove inside the 35 3x in the 4th qtr but had nothing to show for it on the scoreboard-an int at the 2 yd line and an int in the EZ w/ 2 minutes to play.
Now cal has looked impressive in their first 2 games, but a closer look reveals some cracks... make no mistake, this team is talented, but you would be foolish to put them in the usc/oklahoma/uf/uga/mizz stratosphere. Week 1 their defense gave up over 400 yds at home, and while they stiffened in wk 2, only allowing 160 yds to wazzu, that excitement should be tempered knowing that the same wazzu offense only gained 190 yds against ok st the week before. No one will ever mistake the ok st def w/ the steel curtain, especially on the road!! Wazzu actually drove inside the 25 5x, only to come away with 3 pts, probably more an example of their own ineptitude than a stellar cal defense. offensively, cal scored on the 1st play of the game w/ an 80 yd td run, and then intercepted wazzu qb setting up a 14 yd td. tds on a blocked fg and a 90 yd int return, as well as another int giving cal the ball at the 25yd line, and another 86yd td run made this game a blowout more than consistent drives by the offense. In fact, cal went 3&out on 3 straight possesions in the 1st/2nd qtr!
There's more, such as the cal passing game not clicking yet, a young offense built on speed now playing their first game on grass, the noon kickoff, and the expected letdown for a team whose emotions were sky-high for opening day and it's first conference game last week to now playing its 3rd straight bcs team and b2b roadie.
But to me what really is the meat of this play is such: pre-season this matchup between 2 unranked opponents would have had the home team a slight fav, at worst pk. The personnel is the same as it was 2 weeks ago... one has underperformed, one has overachieved imo. how does that account for 17 pts on the spread..??
maryland season wins was 7 w/ the over favored
cal was 8 w/ the under favored.
basically the same total... there is a reason for that. personnel-wise, these 2 teams are not that far apart... yes, right now cal is playing better.
usc opened -18 vs uva opening week.
cal is -14.5 @ maryland.
maryland is no UVA.
Cal is no USC.
yet only one key # (17) stands between these 2 spreads.
oregon is -8 @ purdue. (i got it at -7)
oregon is better than cal imo (better defense and pass game)
purdue has a better qb than mary, but o-line and run game better for mary. both defenses avg.
so why would you want to lay 7pts more w/ the lesser team in cal than oregon??
i have over 200 posted cfb plays here at the rx in the past 2 years... you can search threads from 2006/2007. not once will you find a play on the ML. I just don't do it. But i had to make an exception here... +600 means mathematically that if this game, in this exact situation, were to be played 7x, cal would win 6x and maryland once. Maryland at home in practically a must-win situation coming off a loss. Cal coming in confident but young, for a game that means less to them than the first 2 they just played. 20 year old kids. And they are expected to step up to the challenge and win 6x out of 7. win or lose, that is a ridiculous price.
Iowa st on the road is cheaper ML than maryland at home.
Stanford on the road is cheaper ML than maryland at home. (but also might not be a bad play)
purdue, facing a tougher team at home in oregon, is half the price of maryland vs a weaker team in cal.
Look for maryland to run behind a big and experienced o-line against cal's new 3-4 defense, and ultimately set up the play-action to a group of experienced and speedy wrs.
Look for cal, facing adversity for the first time this yr, to show some of it's youth and inexperience as this game unfolds differently than expected.
Look for both of these teams to be 2-1 by the time this game is over.
good luck
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