Week # 1 Opening Lines

[UoweDucks]

Has Masoli improved his passing game (obviously he can run)?

YES! He had an excellent spring throwing the ball. Check his passing efficiency #'s from last yr it is a misnomer that he is a running qb.

Is Chip Kelly the brains or Bellotti, or is Bellotti the brains for hiring Kelly? or is Kelly a protege?

Both! Kelly was hired for his knowledge of the spread. Belloti grabbed him from New Hampshire. Genious move by Belloti.

What's the defense look like this year for the Ducks?

Probably close to what you saw last year. DL will be a bit worse but competent, LB's will a big step up and secondary will be slightly worse.

 

[Conan]

I'll be glad to get Cal at -14. I think they are going to stomp Maryland.

If Oklahoma line comes out with them being -21 favorites or more, it is going to be a big temptation to take the points with BYU . . . . . .

The Cal game is a payback SBS.
The Bears went to Tennessee and got throttled there but when it was their turn to be the host team, the payback was just as ugly as their loss to UT in the first game.

I'd lay a couple TD's too.


PS... I also think Stanford is going to pin WSU's ears back in that one. They may even smother them convincingly.

 

[Conan]

Just a footnote to what Ducks said about Masoli...

The way he established himself as a running QB last season was somewhat unexpected but just somewhat in that he had no history running the spread before... nor was he expected to run as well as he did... but he is fast and intimidating. His passing game was abbreviated last year to a point but still decent... but as Ducks pointed out, that won't be a limitation this season judging from his spring workouts. He set passing records when he was in HS. He threw for close to 4000 yards and only now will his passing skills be showcased.

IMHO, he's the Duck's best hope to take it to Boise in W1, but Kelly is an excellent offensive mind so I expect new weaponry of some sort to be unveiled. Their new #1 WR Jamere Holland (a USC refugee) is the heir apparent to last season's #1 WR Jaison Williams but Jamere has shown that he has better hands that were missing last year.

 

[SoonerBS]

The Cal game is a payback SBS.
The Bears went to Tennessee and got throttled there but when it was their turn to be the host team, the payback was just as ugly as their loss to UT in the first game.

I'd lay a couple TD's too.


PS... I also think Stanford is going to pin WSU's ears back in that one. They may even smother them convincingly.

Stop it, you're giving me a woody . . . . . . You know I'm a sucker for those big uglies in the trenches and Stanford has them.

 

[SoonerBS]

Just a footnote to what Ducks said about Masoli...

The way he established himself as a running QB last season was somewhat unexpected but just somewhat in that he had no history running the spread before... nor was he expected to run as well as he did... but he is fast and intimidating. His passing game was abbreviated last year to a point but still decent... but as Ducks pointed out, that won't be a limitation this season judging from his spring workouts. He set passing records when he was in HS. He threw for close to 4000 yards and only now will his passing skills be showcased.

IMHO, he's the Duck's best hope to take it to Boise in W1, but Kelly is an excellent offensive mind so I expect new weaponry of some sort to be unveiled. Their new #1 WR Jamere Holland (a USC refugee) is the heir apparent to last season's #1 WR Jaison Williams but Jamere has shown that he has better hands that were missing last year.

I've already decided that I am going to leave this bet alone in week #1 . . . . . . . BUT, I WILL be watching it with interest . . . . .

 

[Conan]

I've already decided that I am going to leave this bet alone in week #1 . . . . . . . BUT, I WILL be watching it with interest . . . . .

I too am torn over this top priority mission that the Ducks are on in W1 and the fact that Boise's lost just ONE game in the last 6 years on smurf turf. I know for a fact that the entire Duck squad says, "yeah, so? ...when the final whistle blows, you can make that two."

You won't EVER find anything like this game in cupcake land. September is my FAVORITE month for high drama in college football, depending on where you situate yourself.


And on another note,

ANYONE WITH THE STEELE MAG IN HAND??

Please verify for me that he has Oregon State @#36. They were the team that had their QB playing with rotator cuff issues and they were also lite 2 Rogers brothers that day... nevertheless, they shut out #21 Pitt who will be light one LeSean McCoy this year.

But if that doesn't make your scalp bleed :think2: will you please look up exactly where you find Oregon in Steele's top 40? 50? 60? Anyone?

 

[trentmoney]

I too am torn over this top priority mission that the Ducks are on in W1 and the fact that Boise's lost just ONE game in the last 6 years on smurf turf. I know for a fact that the entire Duck squad says, "yeah, so? ...when the final whistle blows, you can make that two."

You won't EVER find anything like this game in cupcake land. September is my FAVORITE month for high drama in college football, depending on where you situate yourself.


And on another note,

ANYONE WITH THE STEELE MAG IN HAND??

Please verify for me that he has Oregon State @#36. They were the team that had their QB playing with rotator cuff issues and they were also lite 2 Rogers brothers that day... nevertheless, they shut out #21 Pitt who will be light one LeSean McCoy this year.

But if that doesn't make your scalp bleed :think2: will you please look up exactly where you find Oregon in Steele's top 40? 50? 60? Anyone?

oregon st 36
pittsburgh 23
oregon not in top 50

power rankings:
pittsburgh 29
oregon 33
or st 34

i guess he's figuring oregon to lose a couple of ooc games
i'm down on pitt so i disagree w/ him here

 

[UoweDucks]

I too am torn over this top priority mission that the Ducks are on in W1 and the fact that Boise's lost just ONE game in the last 6 years on smurf turf. I know for a fact that the entire Duck squad says, "yeah, so? ...when the final whistle blows, you can make that two."

You won't EVER find anything like this game in cupcake land. September is my FAVORITE month for high drama in college football, depending on where you situate yourself.


And on another note,

ANYONE WITH THE STEELE MAG IN HAND??

Please verify for me that he has Oregon State @#36. They were the team that had their QB playing with rotator cuff issues and they were also lite 2 Rogers brothers that day... nevertheless, they shut out #21 Pitt who will be light one LeSean McCoy this year.

But if that doesn't make your scalp bleed :think2: will you please look up exactly where you find Oregon in Steele's top 40? 50? 60? Anyone?

I won't decide until I see a line. I think the 10 pts that Steel is talking about is ludicrous. If things line up this fall like I expect, it will be hard for me not to play Oregon if I am getting more than a FG.

For once the visiting team coming to Boise will
a) Not be looking ahead
b) Coming in with payback on the mind/ equal motivation
c) Has superior athletes and depth

Honestly, I think it is possible Oregon lays a beat down. But that is a discussion that will have more meat a week or two before the game.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...From a numbers standpoint and line value persepctive your right. But, leaving last season behind us, I think you could be underestimating a little what the oddsmakers are going to take into account on a fading Maryland and a rising Cal. Afterall, we are talking about a team who is picked by most outlets to finish 2nd in the Pac-10 vs a team who is picked to finish last in their division. We'll see. How bout we split the different and make it -12.

we'll see how the early hype is in the fall
i see espn has cal 13
vegas insider has them 17 behind or st and oregon
if they're not top 10 or so i don't think that line will be 2 tds...

again, i'm not saying they don't blow them out...
remember, i was the first person here to put money on the 2009 cal bears..!!
i just don't think it will be that high, and in fact i hope it's not...sure they can and i think probably will blow them out, but we've seen cal struggle at home before, and riley still hasn't put it all together...maryland won outright both games as DD dog last yr and have covered last 5 as DD dog, including 4 outright!!

at -14 or higher there will probably be better games to play imo, but i don't think the line will be that high so i'll have a chance to invest with the rest of the board...

 

[SunDodger]

Thanks for the input, guys. This'll help me narrow down my short list of games to focus on.

I've been keeping up on the Pac-10 thread and a bet against the Cougs at a fair number seems like a good play. (I can't help but think of last year taking Okla. St. -6.0 for an easy wk. # 1 win. The West Coast & Southwest Crews were all over that game.) Stanford -7.0 would be nice, but more than likely it will be in the 10-14 range. I don't know if I would lay more than -10.0, though.

Russ, if your prediction on that Ole Miss spread is correct, I may have to wait for a better spot to play them. I was hoping for something lower.

GoSooners you are right, Alabama vs. Virginia Tech is going to be a great game. For some reason, I think that line will be very close to pk. I used to always look forward to the Kickoff and Pigskin Classics before they did away with them. It's nice to see some big non-conf. neutral site games again.

Very glad to see the Oregon at Boise St. game on Thursday night. If the line starts higher than Boise St. -3.0, I see money coming in on Oregon. This should be a high scoring affair. Definately need to look closer at this one.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Ole Miss -25 (I have one set of power ratings that has Miss -25.5 and one that has Miss 28.78) rivalry game

Russ, I think you are at least 10 points heavy on that line.

The game is in Memphis and this matchup often is decided by a td or less.

I realize Ole Miss is tough again this year, but ive watched this game for many years and Memphis gives solid effort vs Ole Miss.

 

[silver7]

Md L3 Yrs As DD Pups

06- WV + 17 L by 21

GT + 14 L by 4
Clem + 19 W SU by 1
07 - WV + 16 L by 17
Rut + 18 W SU by 10
08 - Cal + 14 W SU by 8
Clem + 11 W SU by 3

DDD WSU 4
Cover 1
L no cover 2

 

[russ1945]

Russ, I think you are at least 10 points heavy on that line.

The game is in Memphis and this matchup often is decided by a td or less.

I realize Ole Miss is tough again this year, but ive watched this game for many years and Memphis gives solid effort vs Ole Miss.

I agree I was just going from the numbers. That's why I put rivalry next to the line. Miss is going to be a public team this year if for no other reason than they are the publics "only" hope of knocking off Florida again this year. I like the coach and the players but I think we are going to see some funky numbers on their games. Love to see Miss around 17 for that one.

 

[russ1945]

Marland/California

Does anyone have a game time on that game yet? I would love to see a payback on the game time to make up for LY.

 

[trentmoney]

06- WV + 17 L by 21

GT + 14 L by 4
Clem + 19 W SU by 1
07 - WV + 16 L by 17
Rut + 18 W SU by 10
08 - Cal + 14 W SU by 8
Clem + 11 W SU by 3

DDD WSU 4
Cover 1
L no cover 2

if you got +16 on that thrs nite espn game then that's you're fault bc +17 was widely available...steele has it listed as +16.5 but i remember that game well bc i watched it w/ my ex-girlfriend's dad and we laughed when maryland scored late 4th qtr for the "push"

either way that's impressive 5 of 6 covers w/ 4 SU wins or for most of us 5 straight covers w/ 4 SU wins over the last 2 years

 

[UoweDucks]

Does anyone have a game time on that game yet? I would love to see a payback on the game time to make up for LY.

7:00 pm pacific / ESPN 2

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

7:00 pm pacific / ESPN 2

So no payback on the early start LY in Maryland I guess. I guess they could even get there a day early since it is the first game. Are there any trends or tendencies that you are aware of when a trip makes that east coast trip that you are aware of?

 

[GoSooners]

either way that's impressive 5 of 6 covers w/ 4 SU wins or for most of us 5 straight covers w/ 4 SU wins over the last 2 years

These are the kinds of trends that Marc Lawrence lives (and dies) by.

 

[UoweDucks]

So no payback on the early start LY in Maryland I guess. I guess they could even get there a day early since it is the first game. Are there any trends or tendencies that you are aware of when a trip makes that east coast trip that you are aware of?

No. I don't track trends. However, in considiring how teams play when travelling east through the years I think it most definitely affects them. I would say that I think Cal should win by 10+. I guess I originally felt like the line may be lower than that due to the fact that CAL underwhelmed in this teams last meeting and perhaps that is where my "wishfull thinking" entered in...

I am really bullish on CAL but they may be a bit out of sync early on. I just can't shake what my gut is telling me on their QB situation. I've long felt that Riley is going to be the next great CAL qb but indications from Tedford clearly do NOT signal much confidence. This is NOT the Tedford way. He does NOT motivate his guys like this. Unless through fall camp we do not see a very clear statement from Tedford that Riley is the guy I think bettors need to prepare themselves for another 2 headed qb and that could mean trouble on large spreads... I've given this a lot of thought.

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

Maryland's avg pt diff in their away games LY was -11 and that was all east coast games and includes an outright loss to Mid Tenn. No way that line comes out less than 11.