Ultimate Where The Money Is At Eternal Post 08/09 Playoffs

[OccamsRazor]

OccamRazor, u dont post anymore picks..

Nothing has looked good.

In 1-1 3rd games its hard to find an edge in either Sides or Totals.

Both 1-1 games went Over yesterday, one Rd team won, one home team won.

My "guesses" would have lost and I would have gone 0-4. Sides and Totals

I always say Pass is the most underutilized weapon that a Capper has. The purpose of this thread is to help Cappers pass more often on their wagers by seeing what they are up against.

I might have something today in the 2-0 games.

 

[OccamsRazor]

2nd Round Going into SUNDAY 5/10
Favorites are 9-3 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 9-3 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 7-5 SU
Home Teams are 7-5 ATS
Home Favorites are 7-3 ATS
Road Dogs are 3-7 ATS
Home Dogs are 0-2 ATS
Road Favorites are 2-0
The 'Over/Under' is 7-5

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 8-0
Clev 7-0

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 3-5
Boston 4-5-1
Lakers 4-4 (Juice)
Atlanta 4-6
Houst 4-5
Dallas 4-4 (Juice)

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Dall 6-2
Boston 8-2
Laker 4-4
Denver4-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 5-2
Atl 6-3
Orl 5-4
Hst 5-4
Laker 4-4
Denver 4-4

Comments
Pointspread has not come into play at all 2nd round

Have you bet Clev or Denver? OVERS with Dallas or Boston?

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 0 times in 12 games (0%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 11 times in 57 games (19%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368

 

[OccamsRazor]

2nd Round Going into Monday 5/11
Favorites are 9-5 (64%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 9-5 (64%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 8-6 SU (57%)
Home Teams are 8-6 ATS (57%)
Home Favorites are 7-4 ATS (63.6%)
Road Dogs are 4-7 ATS (36%)
Home Dogs are 1-2 ATS (33%)
Road Favorites are 2-1 (66%)
The 'Over/Under' is 7-7

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 8-0
Clev 7-0

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 3-6
Boston 5-5-1
Lakers 4-5
Atlanta 4-6
Houst 5-5 (Juice)
Dallas 4-4 (Juice)

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Dall 6-2
Boston 8-3
Denver 4-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 5-2
Atl 6-3
Orl 6-4
Hst 6-4
Laker 5-4
Denver 4-4

Comments
Pointspread has not come into play at all 2nd round

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 0 times in 14 games (0%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 11 times in 59 games (18.6%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368

 

[OccamsRazor]

Can both Cleveland and Denver remain undefeated ATS on Monday?

 

[ryangenero]

Can both Cleveland and Denver remain undefeated ATS on Monday?

you cant go against these stats...people always want a system that produces 100% results...and now we are looking at MONEY MAKING MACHINES and questioning it? would you prefer if they were both only 66% vs the spread?

 

[LongboardLarry]

atlanta didnt cash ONE ticket for their backers either, the books must be tired of paying out on cleveland why dont they favor them by More?

do you really think they wont beat Bos or orlando by DD everygame? especially in Game 1

 

[tijuana dirtbag]

Where's the Birds???

That's why you buy points in the playoffs! If I only had ATL +10.5 or +11!

According to the Stats, Cleveland should have only been favored by 5 or so, since its a road game.

 

[OccamsRazor]

The importance of value shopping was illustrated by the ATS results on Monday night. Dallas opened up at -1 while Cleveland opened up at -9' Both would have been winners. Since the majority of Gamblers don't bet openers, I will use the mode closing number for record keeping purposes. The numbers were Dallas-2'and Cleveland -10

2nd Round Going into Tuesday 5/12
Favorites are 11-5 (68.75%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 9-6-1 (60%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 9-7 SU (56%)
Home Teams are 8-7-1 ATS (53%)
Home Favorites are 7-5 ATS (58.)
Road Dogs are 5-7 ATS (41%)
Home Dogs are 1-2-1 ATS (33%)
Road Favorites are 2-1-1 (66%)
The 'Over/Under' is 8-8

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 9-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 3-6
Boston 5-5-1
Lakers 4-5
Atlanta 4-6-1
Houst 5-5 (Juice)
Dallas 4-5

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Dall 7-2
Boston 8-3
Denver 5-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Atl 7-3
Orl 6-4
Hst 6-4
Laker 5-4


Comments
After having no effect for 14 games the pointspread came into play in both decisions on Monday.

2 UNDER TMS meet up on Tuesday LAK/HST. First series game opened up at 193. Line today at 198. Value to the UNDER, except Houston's lineup has changed. Pass?

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 16 games (12.5%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 13 times in 61 games (21%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368

 

[OccamsRazor]

2nd Round Going into Wed 5/13
Favorites are 13-5 (72%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 11-6-1 (64%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 11-7 SU (61%)
Home Teams are 10-7-1 ATS (58%)
Home Favorites are 9-5 ATS (64%)
Road Dogs are 5-9 ATS (35%)
Home Dogs are 1-2-1 ATS (33%)
Road Favorites are 2-1-1 (66%)
The 'Over/Under' is 8-10 (55% UNDER)

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 9-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 3-7
Boston 5-5-1
Lakers 5-5 (Juice)
Atlanta 4-6-1
Houst 5-6
Dallas 4-5

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Dall 7-2
Boston 8-4
Denver 5-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Atl 7-3
Orl 7-4
Hst 7-4
Laker 6-4


Comments
Denver looking to remain undefeated ATS.

Home team SU and HM Team Fav ATS is where the money has been.

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 18 games (11%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 13 times in 63 games (20%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368

 

[ryangenero]

did okum give up on this thread?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Shit, there was one game Wed, I thought had updated it. Guess not. I'll update with Wed and Thurs results.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Again the purpose of this post is to give you an objective view of what is occurring right before your eyes. Your winning percentage will increase dramatically when your opinion matches what is going on right before your eyes.

For example there are 2 7th games on Sunday. The HM favorites are 68% ATS here in the second RD (History says HM FAVs cover at higher than 52.4% rate in the playoffs, meaning they are money). IF your opinion is that Orlando and Houston are going to cover,(Does not match what is going on) your best option as far as your long term winning percentage is concerned would be to Pass.

Pass is the most underutilized weapon in a Cappers arsenal. There is a direct correlation between passing on games and a higher winning percentage.

If this is so simple to do, why don't I have a 70% winning percentage you ask? Answer it is not easy to do, people are creatures of emotion, not reason. I took HST +12 the other night, throwing all reason out the window and going with my opinion of "12s too much". I lost by 40 points. If I would have been reasonable, I would have done the prudent thing, Passed. Live and learn that is what we are all trying to do.

OccamsRazor the Peoples Capper. All free, all the time.

If it makes you feel any better, just pretend you paid $500 to read all this and you're now a member of an exclusive Sharp Insider Club. Welcome.

2nd Round Going into SUNDAY 5/17
Favorites are 15-6 (71%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 13-7-1 (65%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 14-7 SU (66%)
Home Teams are 13-7-1 ATS (65%)
Home Favorites are 11-5 ATS (68%)
Road Dogs are 5-11 ATS (31%)
Home Dogs are 2-2-1 ATS (50%)
Road Favorites are 2-2-1 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 9-12 (57% UNDER)

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 10-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 4-7
Boston 5-6-1
Lakers 5-6
Atlanta 4-6-1
Houst 6-6 (Juice)
Dallas 4-6

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Dall 8-2
Boston 8-5
Denver 6-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Atl 7-3
Orl 8-4
Hst 8-4
Laker 7-4


Comments
Home team SU and HM Team Fav ATS is where the money has been.

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 21 games (9%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 13 times in 66 games (19.6%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368


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[AC2008]

it seems that the first team to win 2 in a row always wins the series..

 

[OccamsRazor]

2nd Round Final Results Favorites are 16-7 (69.5%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 14-8-1 (63%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 15-8 SU (65%)
Home Teams are 14-8-1 ATS (63%)
Home Favorites are 12-6 ATS (66%)
Road Dogs are 6-12 ATS (33%)
Home Dogs are 2-2-1 ATS (50%)
Road Favorites are 2-2-1 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 9-14 (60.8% UNDER)

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 10-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 5-7
Boston 5-7-1
Lakers 6-6
Houst 6-7

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Boston 8-6
Denver 6-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Orl 9-4
Hst 9-4
Laker 8-4


Comments
Home team SU, HM Team Fav ATS and UNDER is where the money has been.

Denver and Cleveland Undefeated against the spread indicates bettors are UNDERSTIMATING their potential.


Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 23 games (4.6%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall
Pointspread into play 13 times in 68 games (19%) Avg is 15%

See post dated 5/5 for All Round 1 Results

See post dated 5/18 for All Round 2 Results


Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368



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[ryangenero]

you said:
bettors are UNDERSTIMATING their potential.

well, if you look back a MAJORITY of bets have been on denver and cleveland in every game

if annything the BOOKS are underestimating them

 

[OccamsRazor]

you said:
bettors are UNDERSTIMATING their potential.

well, if you look back a MAJORITY of bets have been on denver and cleveland in every game

if annything the BOOKS are underestimating them

I stand corrected Ryan, you are right that's what I meant.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Conference Championship going into Wed 5/20

Favorites are 1-0 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 0-1 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 1-0 SU
Home Teams are 0-1 ATS
Home Favorites are 0-1 ATS
Road Dogs are 1-0 ATS
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Favorites are 0-0 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 0-1

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 11-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 5-7
Lakers 6-7

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 6-5

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Orl 9-4
Laker 9-4

Comments
Lakers won SU but failed ATS

Denver and Cleveland Undefeated against the spread indicates linemaker is UNDERSTIMATING their potential.


You should be betting Cleveland, Denver and UNDER and considering passing.

Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 23 games (4.6%) Avg is 15%


Conference Championship
Pointspread into play 1 times in 1 game (100%) Avg is 15%


Overall
Pointspread into play 14 times in 69 games (20%) Avg is 15%


2nd Round Final Results

Favorites are 16-7 (69.5%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 14-8-1 (63%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 15-8 SU (65%)
Home Teams are 14-8-1 ATS (63%)
Home Favorites are 12-6 ATS (66%)
Road Dogs are 6-12 ATS (33%)
Home Dogs are 2-2-1 ATS (50%)
Road Favorites are 2-2-1 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 9-14 (60.8% UNDER)

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 10-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 5-7
Boston 5-7-1
Lakers 6-6
Houst 6-7

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Boston 8-6
Denver 6-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Orl 9-4
Hst 9-4
Laker 8-4


Comments
Home team SU, HM Team Fav ATS and UNDER is where the money has been.

Denver and Cleveland Undefeated against the spread indicates linemaker is UNDERSTIMATING their potential.


Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 23 games (4.6%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall

Pointspread into play 13 times in 68 games (19%) Avg is 15%

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368


1st Round Final Results

Favorites are 30-15 (66%)Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 21-23-1 (47%)Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 32-13 SU (71%)
Home Teams are 21-23-1 ATS (47%)
Home Favorites are 19-20-1 ATS (48.7%)
Home Dogs are 3-3 ATS (50%)
Road Dogs are 20-19-1 ATS (51.2%)
Road Favorites are 3-3 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 21-24 (53.3% UNDER)

Money Makers
Denver 5-0
Clev 4-0
Philly 4-2
Dallas 4-1
Atlanta 4-3

Money Burners
Det 0-4
Orlando 2-4
New Orl 0-5
Boston 3-3-1
Miami 3-4

OVERS
San Ant/Dall 4-1
Boston/Chicago 6-1

UNDERS
Clev/Det 3-1
Atl/Mia 5-2
Orl/Phil 4-2
Laker/Utah 3-2
Port/Hst 4-2
Denver/NO 3-2


Comments
HM Teams went 71% SU, but failed to cover at a 47%ATS rate

Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Companion link (See each individual game)

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/850750

 

[ryangenero]

did this thread get killed

 

[OccamsRazor]

did this thread get killed

Jeez, Ryan hold on, they don't pay me enough to do this, update coming up. thanks for noticing

 

[OccamsRazor]

Conference Championship going into Friday 5/22

Favorites are 1-2 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 0-3 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 1-2 SU
Home Teams are 0-3 ATS
Home Favorites are 0-3 ATS
Road Dogs are 3-0 ATS
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Favorites are 0-0 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 1-2

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 12-0
Clev 7-1-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 6-7
Lakers 6-8

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 6-6

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-3
Orl 9-5
Laker 10-4

Comments
Denver keeps going. UNDER has made money all 3 rounds. No home team has covered ATS, yet.


Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 23 games (4.6%) Avg is 15%


Conference Championship
Pointspread into play 1 time in 3 games (33%) Avg is 15%


Overall
Pointspread into play 14 times in 71 games (19.7%) Avg is 15%


2nd Round Final Results

Favorites are 16-7 (69.5%) Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 14-8-1 (63%) Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 15-8 SU (65%)
Home Teams are 14-8-1 ATS (63%)
Home Favorites are 12-6 ATS (66%)
Road Dogs are 6-12 ATS (33%)
Home Dogs are 2-2-1 ATS (50%)
Road Favorites are 2-2-1 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 9-14 (60.8% UNDER)

Money Makers ALL PLAYOFFS
Denver 10-0
Clev 7-0-1

Money Burners ALL PLAYOFFS
Orlando 5-7
Boston 5-7-1
Lakers 6-6
Houst 6-7

OVERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Boston 8-6
Denver 6-4

UNDERS ALL PLAYOFFS
Clev 6-2
Orl 9-4
Hst 9-4
Laker 8-4


Comments
Home team SU, HM Team Fav ATS and UNDER is where the money has been.

Denver and Cleveland Undefeated against the spread indicates linemaker is UNDERSTIMATING their potential.


Round 1
Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Round 2
Pointspread into play 2 times in 23 games (4.6%) Avg is 15%

Pointspread Overall

Pointspread into play 13 times in 68 games (19%) Avg is 15%

Companion link, see Round II game by game:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/856368


1st Round Final Results

Favorites are 30-15 (66%)Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 21-23-1 (47%)Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 32-13 SU (71%)
Home Teams are 21-23-1 ATS (47%)
Home Favorites are 19-20-1 ATS (48.7%)
Home Dogs are 3-3 ATS (50%)
Road Dogs are 20-19-1 ATS (51.2%)
Road Favorites are 3-3 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 21-24 (53.3% UNDER)

Money Makers
Denver 5-0
Clev 4-0
Philly 4-2
Dallas 4-1
Atlanta 4-3

Money Burners
Det 0-4
Orlando 2-4
New Orl 0-5
Boston 3-3-1
Miami 3-4

OVERS
San Ant/Dall 4-1
Boston/Chicago 6-1

UNDERS
Clev/Det 3-1
Atl/Mia 5-2
Orl/Phil 4-2
Laker/Utah 3-2
Port/Hst 4-2
Denver/NO 3-2


Comments
HM Teams went 71% SU, but failed to cover at a 47%ATS rate

Pointspread into play 11 times in 45 games (24%) Avg is 15%

Companion link (See each individual game)

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/850750