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All credit to Ace-Ace who brought attention to this column to the Rx, 2 or 3 years ago. Thanks Ace[/FONT]
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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW SHARPS HANDICAP GAMES 5-7 IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS[/FONT]
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We've reached the second week of the opening round in the NBA playoffs. That means you'll be dealing with Game Five, Game Six, and maybe a couple of Game Sevens in the next few days. [/FONT]
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I wanted to spend today's article telling you how sharps (professional wagerers in Las Vegas) handicap those types of matchups. It might assist your thought process as you work through this week's challenges. I always want you to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp![/FONT]
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The first and most obvious key is that sharps generally take the team that lost the last game if the price is affordable. History has shown that a team off a loss usually bounces back strong, and the team off a win relaxes just a bit too much. Obviously it doesn't always happen this way. And, it's become more common in recent years for the inferior team to lose Game Six at home after losing Game Five on the road. It's as if they know they won't win the next two games, so they get their golf clubs polished early. This tendency has spanked a lot of sharps![/FONT]
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That's created this general approach:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Take the Game Four loser in Game Five as long as the price isn't exorbitant.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cautiously take the Game Five loser in Game Six unless you're VERY confident that the team is going to keep fighting. [/FONT]
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What qualifies as "exorbitant?" Let's go over that for a few seconds.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps generally prefer taking underdogs. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps don't mind laying small prices, particularly if they got in early before the market moved even higher. That's just as valuable as a dog in their eyes because they've got the best of the situation. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps are much more careful once you get up to -4 or -5 in playoff style basketball games. Their instincts are telling them to take the points. If history is telling them to take the favorite, they'll handle their betting units with caution no matter what they decide. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps tend not to lay -6 or higher in any sport unless they have VERY good reasons to do so. Those reasons do come up every so often. But, professional wagerers got that way by taking the points, not by hoping for blowouts. It takes something special to lay this kind of price.[/FONT]
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So, anything at six or higher is going to scare off a lot of sharps. They'll lay 4-5 points (or less) with a home team in a bounce back spot. [/FONT]
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An exception to just blindly playing the bounce back would be if the flow of the series has created more equality than the public realizes. Let's say a "public" team has home court advantage in a series...but it turns out that the underdog is every bit as good as the favorite (think of the Cleveland Cavaliers back when they were an underdog vs. teams like Detroit or Boston the last few years). Lines will reflect home court advantage, any potential bounce back, AND an extra point or two because the public loves betting the big name powers. Sharps will step in on an underdog then regardless of the bounce back history because free points are worth taking whenever you get them. [/FONT]
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Go look up Cleveland's ATS record in the Eastern playoffs the past few years and you'll see why that's such a smart move. If the public really loves or believes in a team, the betting value is almost always going to be on their opponent. [/FONT]
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Of course, Cleveland has grown into the "public" powerhouse now. It will be your job to see if any contenders truly measure up to them in the East, or the Lakers in the West in the coming days and weeks. [/FONT]
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I definitely need to mention totals here too, because sharps made a killing in the past by focusing on UNDERS once you got to the later games in a series. [/FONT]
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The sequence went something like this:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In the distant past, sharps focused on Unders in Games 5, 6, and 7, and made a killing. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers started lowering the totals in Games 5, 6, and 7 as a result, but the sharps kept winning anyway![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers lowered the numbers even more, and REALLY lowered the numbers in Game 7, which finally took away much but not all of the edge. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rules changes in the NBA a few years ago made it easier for scorers to get to the basket, which has helped eliminate many of the 74-72 type games we used to see. They're still around, but not as common. This took away even more of the edge. [/FONT]
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So...I would say there's still a general plan to look at Unders in the later games from the sharps. They're aware though that it's no longer a printing press or a Golden Goose. And, there are certain refs who have to get their faces on TV, which makes it hard for their games to go Under low totals. [/FONT]
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In the past, taking the bounce back teams and taking the Unders in a week like this would have yielded a big profit. You didn't even have to follow basketball or know many of the players. Just betting the tendencies worked great. Sharps find the things that work great and use them! If I had been writing this article 10 years ago, that's what I would have been saying. [/FONT]
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Right now, in 2009, you have to be a bit more careful. The market has priced in those old tendencies, and rules changes have changed the percentages around enough that it matters. [/FONT]
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If the old stuff doesn't work as well, what should YOU do this week? [/FONT]
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Here are some keys to remember:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The emphasis from smart teams in recent years is to get their series over with as quickly as possible. The value of rest can't be understated, particularly for veteran teams. Handicap with an understanding that the superior team is less likely than before to be flat in a fifth or sixth game. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The rules changes have made it possible for star players to carry teams through a series. If you're thinking about betting an underdog, make sure you've got a guy like that on the floor for you. There's nothing worse than watching your underdog bet die in the fourth quarter because nobody on your team has the confidence to take a shot! [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Squads who play the best "team defense" have a big advantage because they can slow down opposing slashers with proper rotations and double teams. The public still pays too much attention to offenses and star players. It was Boston and defense, not the Lakers and Kobe Bryant who won the championship last year...even though the Lakers were betting favorites in the series. Force yourself to pay more attention to defense rather than high fiving your buddies after a dunk. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Three-point shooting looks to be turning into a big factor. A great way to beat defensive rotations and double teams is to drain treys! We're seeing more winning teams get to 10, 11, or 12 makes in a game. It's not the losers firing away in desperation putting up all the treys. It's the winners trying to pull away to big leads. Three's have been a part of the picture since the line was drawn, but this dynamic is relatively new. Be careful investing in teams who aren't dangerous from long range. [/FONT]
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If you keep those notes in mind, I think you'll see events play out in a fairly predictive manner this week. The right teams will win and cover. Systems and strategies from the distant past will only work when the right teams are filling in the slots. [/FONT]
