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Preview: Marlins (33-31) at Padres (26-39)

Game: 2
Venue: PETCO Park
Date: June 14, 2016 10:10 PM EDT

SAN DIEGO -- The first thing Marlins manager Don Mattingly said after Monday night's 13-4 win over the Padres at Petco Park was that he hadn't made up his mind about any future lineups.

The announcement serviced a small army of Japanese journalists following Ichiro Suzuki as he nears two milestones -- one being far more significant in Japan than in the United States.

Suzuki went 3-for-4 Monday night with two walks, a RBI and three runs scored.

He finished the game one hit shy of tying Pete Rose's all-time professional record of 4,256 hits. Suzuki also drew to within 23 hits of 3,000 for his major league career.

Suzuki has 2,977 hits in the U.S. after getting 1,278 over nine seasons in Japan.

Will he get the chance to tie and pass Rose over the next two days in San Diego? Or will the Marlins hold him out of the lineup until they return home on Thursday? Mattingly isn't saying.

"I haven't decided on Tuesday's lineup," Mattingly said when pressed on the Suzuki question.

Suzuki started in right field Monday night because the struggling Giancarlo Stanton was out of the lineup with a scheduled day off. Stanton is mired in the worst slump of his career. He arrived in San Diego with only three hits in his first 25 at-bats on the road trip to fall to .192 on the season with 79 strikeouts in 193 at-bats. He does have 12 homers and 29 RBIs.

Another reason why Suzuki might not start Tuesday is Padres starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz (5-6, 2.44 ERA). Left-handed hitters are batting only .189 against the left-handed Pomeranz, who ranks among the National League leaders in ERA (eighth), ERA in night games (second, 1.34), strikeouts per nine innings (sixth, 10.7) and opponents' batting average (third, .184).

Due to a combination of injuries to Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner, the trade of James Shields and, most importantly, performance, Pomeranz has gone from the Padres No. 4 starter on Opening Day to No. 1.

Pomeranz has allowed no earned runs in five of his first 12 starts and more than three only once.

"He has been both our sharpest and most consistent starter," said Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley. "He's right up there with the toughest starting pitchers in the league and it's no fluke."

Pomeranz will be opposed by Marlins right-hander Tom Koehler (4-6, 4.36 ERA) Tuesday night.

The Marlins aren't the only team with a lineup question Tuesday night. After missing one start with a left thumb contusion, switch-hitting Padres third baseman Yangervis Solarte was back in the lineup Monday night. But he struck out in all three at-bats and didn't look good at the plate and came out of the game after seven innings.

With the right-handed Koehler starting Tuesday, Padres manager Andy Green could decide to deploy the left-handed hitting Brett Wallace at third and the left-handed hitting Alexi Amarista at second.
 
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Preview: Brewers (30-34) at Giants (39-26)

Game: 2
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: June 14, 2016 10:15 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO -- Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Matt Garza didn't get a chance to jump right back on the proverbial horse to start the season.

After a nightmarish ride in 2015, he finally will make his 2016 debut Tuesday in the second game of the Brewers' series against the San Francisco Giants. A strained right lat injury sustained in his final exhibition start put Garza on the disabled list.

Now he is hungry to get back out there at AT&T Park.

"I'm good, good," Garza said in anticipation of his return. "I've been grinding for these last two months, just chomping at the bit to get back out there, and it's finally here. I'm really excited, I got a lot of energy. I haven't been able to sleep for the last couple of days."

He will need to be fully alert in a matchup with left-hander Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 1.88 ERA) and the National League West-leading Giants.

"Bumgarner, (Roy) Halladay, Cy Young, it doesn't matter. I don't care. I'm happy to be back out on that bump," Garza said. "I've faced guys year in, year out, and the names change. The mound and the baseball diamond doesn't, so I'm ready to be back out there."

Garza was 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA in 2015 during his debut season with the Brewers -- the worst year of his career. He says he pitched "with a purpose" in each of his three rehab starts with low Class A Wisconsin, a stretch in which he compiled a 4.76 ERA.

"First outing was just get my feet wet and feel good," he said. "The second outing was more of commanding the strike zone and mixing in pitches. And the third outing was trying to get strikeouts, trying to use my breaking stuff to put guys away."

Garza's biggest challenge Tuesday night might be keeping his emotions in control, along with his pitches.

"Energy level is through the roof, so I'm real amped up for Tuesday and ... I got to find a way to calm it down," he said.

The Brewers made room for Garza by demoting Opening Day starter Wily Peralta to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell said sending down Peralta was a tough decision, but the team needed better production from that spot in the rotation.

He knows Garza is ready and eager to go.

"For us, Matty's had an unfortunate injury right at the end of spring training," Counsell said. "It's been a long road back for him. He's anxious to get back out there. You miss the first 2 1/2 months, and he's anxious for sure. He's been chomping at the bit for a while. He's going to take the ball every five days, so we're not gonna get to crazy about the results in one start, but it's good to have him back out there."

Even though he hasn't pitched this year, Garza is no mystery to the Giants.

"We have a pretty good idea about him," San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy said. "We've faced him. Good stuff. Experienced starter with very good stuff. Haven't seen him because this is first start this year, but he's a good pitcher."

The Brewers are familiar with Bumgarner, too, having faced him on Opening Day. The San Francisco ace allowed three runs in five innings, but he emerged with the victory as the Giants won 12-3 in Milwaukee.

That was one of only two starts this season in which Bumgarner allowed more than two earned runs. Since May 1, he is 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA in eight starts.

In nine career starts against the Brewers, Bumgarner is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA.
 
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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, June 14, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Friday's game was almost an utter disaster for the Pittsburgh Pirates as both ace Gerrit Cole and starting catcher Francisco Cervelli left the game with injuries. First the good news: Cole is likely to miss at least his next start and might have to go on the 15-day DL, but an MRI revealed no structural damage. Cole left with tightness in his right triceps. The team wasn't as fortunate on Cervelli as he suffered a broken bone in his left hand and likely misses six weeks. He was hurt on a swing. Cervelli is one of the better all-around catchers in baseball and recently got a fat contract extension. He's hitting .257 with a solid .373 on-base percentage and is a very good defensive player and pitch-framer. Now Chris Stewart and Erik Kratz, acquired over the weekend from the Angels, will handle duties behind the plate. Neither of those guys can hit a lick. The struggling Pirates might be 20 games out of first in the NL Central by the time Cervelli gets back, so it's pretty much wild-card game again or bust for this team.


Phillies at Blue Jays (-215, 9)

It's a getaway matinee at 12:37 p.m. ET and nationally televised by the MLB Network in this interleague series, with the teams then playing two games in Philly. Thus the Phillies will have the DH here, probably Ryan Howard. This would have been the spot of promising Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez, but he left Thursday's outing vs. the Cubs after just two pitches with biceps soreness and has been placed on the 15-day DL. Thankfully for him, an MRI came back clean. The Phillies called up right-hander Zach Eflin to replace Velasquez on the roster, and Eflin gets the call here in his big-league debut. The 22-year-old was acquired in the Jimmy Rollins deal with the Dodgers in December 2014. He was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in the minors this season. Toronto goes with struggling No. 1 starter Marcus Stroman (5-2, 4.94). He had a third straight shaky outing Thursday against Baltimore, allowing four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings -- Stroman hasn't lasted six full innings once in that three-game stretch and has given up 17 earned runs and 28 hits in 16.1 innings. Stroman hasn't faced the Phillies.

Key trends: The Blue Jays are 7-2 in Stroman's past nine vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" is 8-2 in his past 10 at home.

Early lean: Blue Jays and over.

Cubs at Nationals (+105, 7.5)

Obviously the series of the week, this game will also be on the MLB Network and have live betting at sportsbooks. The Cubs go with John Lackey (7-2, 2.63), who has been worth every penny the team gave him in free agency this offseason. Lackey has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his past eight starts and hasn't allowed any in his past two (vs. Phillies and Braves) over 13.2 innings. Since the start of May, Lackey ranks second among qualified pitchers in WHIP at 0.79. Lackey beat the Nationals at Wrigley Field on May 6, allowing two runs in seven innings and striking out 11, tying his season high. Bryce Harper is 0-for-7 against him. Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez (3-5, 3.93) lost a fourth straight start Thursday at the White Sox, allowing three runs in seven innings. Gonzalez lost at the Cubs on May 8, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings. Dexter Fowler is a career .471 hitter off him with three extra-base hits and three RBIs in 17 at-bats.

Key trends: The Cubs are 10-2 in their past 12 vs. a lefty. The Nats are 0-5 in Gonzalez's past five vs. the NL Central. The over is 9-4 in his past 13 at home.

Early lean: Cubs and over.

Orioles at Red Sox (-173, 8.5)

It's Baltimore's second trip to Fenway this season; the Birds won two of three there from April 11-13. This game will feature each team's No. 1 starter. Baltimore's Chris Tillman (8-1, 3.01) comes off his best start of the year, throwing 7.1 shutout innings against the Royals with nine strikeouts and no walks. He had walked at least two in his previous nine outings. Tillman was 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox last year. David Ortiz is only 6-for-33 career off him with seven strikeouts. Xander Bogaerts is 2-for-17. Boston lefty David Price (7-3, 4.63) was a hard-luck loser in San Francisco on Wednesday, going eight innings and allowing two runs and three hits. Price lost to Baltimore on April 11, allowing five runs in five innings. Mark Trumbo is a career .364 hitter off him with two homers and seven RBIs in 22 at-bats. Matt Wieters hits .319 off Price in 47 at-bats but has 20 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Orioles are 12-2 in Tillman's past 14 vs. Boston. The under is 3-0-1 in Price's past four vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in Tillman's past 10.

Early lean: Red Sox and under.

Reds at Braves (-128, 8)

This is one of those games you are better off losing. Just one game could be the difference at the end of the season as to which team gets the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and I'm assuming it will come down to these two clubs. Cincinnati goes with lefty Brandon Finnegan (2-4, 3.77). He had a second straight quality start Thursday against the Cardinals in allowing two runs in seven innings but took a no-decision. Finnegan has never faced Atlanta. The Braves counter with ace Julio Teheran (2-6, 2.85), who continues to build trade value. He won in San Diego last Wednesday, allowing two runs and striking out eight in eight innings. Last year, Teheran threw six shutout innings in his lone start vs. the Reds. Jay Bruce is 2-for-12 with a homer against him. Brandon Phillips is 1-for-10 with a double.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-9 in Finnegan's past 10 starts. The Braves are 0-7 in Teheran's past seven at home. The under is 2-0-2 in Finnegan's past four. The under is 6-2-2 in Teheran's past 10 at home.

Early lean: Braves and under.

Brewers at Giants (-245, 7)

These teams opened the season against one another in Milwaukee, with the Giants winning two of three. The Brewers go with Matt Garza here in his season debut; he has been on the 60-day disabled list with a right lat strain. He was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in six starts in spring training, getting injured in his final one. Last year, Garza was an awful 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA. The Brewers are hoping he can build some trade value ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline. To make room for Garza on the active roster, the team sent Opening Day starter Wily Peralta to the minors. Peralta's 6.68 ERA through 13 starts ranks last among all qualified MLB starting pitchers. Giants ace lefty Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 1.88) took a no-decision on Wednesday against the Red Sox, allowing one run and four hits in six innings. Bumgarner has allowed more than two earned runs twice all season. One of those was opening day in Milwaukee when he gave up three in five innings and walked a season-high five but still won. Ryan Braun is a career .308 hitter off him with two homers and eight strikeouts in 26 at-bats.

Key trends: The Brewers are 0-4 in Garza's past four vs. teams with a winning record. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner's past five at home. The under is 4-1 in Bumgarner's past five at home.

Early lean: Giants and under.
 
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'Betting Divisional Underdogs'

Just about half of a team’s 162 game MLB schedule is against division rivals and these games have a lot more meaning to them as team's try to either win a division title or get into the playoffs. If you're going to bet on underdogs, it's a great idea to focus on divisional games as there is extra incentive for team's in these matchups and under the right set of circumstances can deliver big profits.

At this point in the season, divisional home underdogs have won 44 games, lost 76 with a negative impact of -$2108 against the money line. Road underdogs have walked off winners in 119 and at the wrong end of a decision 144 times. But, the road pooches have delivered stuffing betting accounts to the tune of +$1119. Of course, you can't blindly bet on divisional road underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run, so, let’s take a look at a situation where it favors you.

Our MLB number crunching machine chips in small to medium divisional road underdogs priced between +$1.00 and +$1.50 delivered the goods. In this situation the home favorite essentially has an edge but isn't overly superior meaning the underdog in this basically toss-up game can easily upset the odds offering good value. So far in 191 such situations, the divisional road underdog won at a 49.7% clip (95-96) rewarding backers with +$1834 at the betting window.

While there's no guarantee small to medium divisional road underdogs will continue to perform the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth keeping in mind.
 
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MLB

Tuesday's games

National League games

Cubs @ Nationals
Lackey is 3-0, 1.34 in his last five starts; four of his last six stayed under. .

Gonzalez is 0-4, 8.34 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Washington won six of last seven games; over is 7-3 in their last 10 home games. Cubs won 13 of last 18 games; five of their last eight road games went over.

Pirates @ Mets
Rookie Taillon allowed three runs in six IP (91 PT) in his MLB debut. .

deGrom is 0-1, 2.25 in his last three starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Pirates lost five in row, 10 of last 13 games; they're 6-5 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. New York lost 10 of its last 16 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Reds @ Braves
Finnegan is 1-2, 2.60 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1 in his last four road starts). .

Teheran is 1-2, 3.79 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under. .

Atlanta lost eight of last ten games; their last three games went over. Reds are 9-4 in their last 13 games, seven of their last eight road games went over the total.

Marlins @ Padres
Koehler is 2-1, 3.79 in his last three starts, which all went over. .

Pomeranz is 1-2, 4.76 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under.

Padres lost 10 of last 12 road games; eight of last ten San Diego road games went over. Marlins lost five of last nine games; seven of last eight Miami road games went over.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Maeda is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.

Bradley is 2-2, 5.16 in his five starts, four of which went over.

Arizona lost 16 of last 24 home games; eight of last 11 Arizona home games went over the total. Dodgers lost ten of last 15 road games; nine of last 13 LA games stayed under the total.

Brewers @ Giants
Garza is making his first '16 start; he is 81-89, 3.99 in 243 big league starts, was 0-2, 4.76 in three rehab starts this year. .

Bumgarner is 3-0, 0.84 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under.

San Francisco won eight of last ten home games; under is 5-3-1 in its last nine home games. Milwaukee is 6-5 in its last eleven games; last four road games went over.


American League games

Orioles @ Red Sox
Tillman is 7-0, 2.56 in his last nine starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten.

Price is 0-2, 3.15 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.

Orioles lost its last three games; six of its last seven road games went over. Baltimore is 5-4 in road series openers. Boston is 4-6 in its last ten games, 6-4 in openers of home series. Over is 13-4 in last 17 games at Fenway Park.

Mariners @ Rays
Walker is 1-4, 6.07 in his last five starts (under 8-4).

Odorizzi is 3-1, 2.89 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Mariners lost seven of last ten games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Four of their last five road games went over. Tampa Bay won seven of last nine games; they're 3-7 in home series openers. Under is 20-7 in their last 27 home games.

Tigers @ White Sox
Zimmerman is 3-3, 5.92 in his last six starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Gonzalez is 1-0, 2.55 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Tigers won six of their last nine games; seven of its last nine road games stayed under. Chicago is 9-21 in its last 30 games; under is 9-6 in White Sox' last 15 home games.

Indians @ Royals
Tomlin is 1-0, 2.13 in his last two starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine.

Young is 0-3, 7.94 in his last four starts (over 4-4). .

Indians won eight of last 12 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight road tilts. Royals won their last seven home games; under is 6-2-1 in KC's last nine games.

Twins @ Angels
Santana is 0-4, 7.43 in his last four starts; six of his last eight went over.

Chacin is 1-2, 4.26 in his last four starts (over 3-2-1).

Angels lost six of their last seven games; six of their last eight home games stayed under. Minnesota lost nine of its last thirteen games; over is 17-5-2 in Twins' last 24 away games.

Rangers @ A's
Perez is 4-0, 2.63 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Surkamp is 0-3, 6.18 in six starts this year (under 4-2).

Rangers are 16-6 in their last 22 games; seven of their last eight road tilts went over. A's lostseven of last nine games but won six in row at home; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games overall.


Interleague

Phillies @ Blue Jays
Eflin is making MLB debut; he was 5-2, 2.90 in 11 AAA starts this season.

Stroman is 0-1, 9.37 in his last three starts; five of his last six went over.

Phillies lost 16 of last 22 games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Toronto won seven of last ten home games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14.

Astros @ Cardinals
Fister is 5-0, 2.70 in his last eight starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten.

Garcia is 1-3, 6.38 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.

Astros lost five of last seven games, with last six staying under; Houston is 3-8 in road series openers. St Louis won seven of last eight games; they're 4-6 in openers of home series. Six of last eight Cardinal games went over the total.

Bronx @ Colorado
Eovaldi is 0-0, 8.44 in his last two starts (over 5-3 in his last eight).

de la Rosa is 0-3, 16.21 in his last three starts (over 5-1).

New York lost five of last seven road games; they're 4-5 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Bronx games. Rockies won six of last eight games; they're 4-6 in home series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.


Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:

Chi-Wsh-- Lackey 8-4; Gonzalez 5-7
Pitt-NY-- Taillon 0-1; deGrom 5-5
Cin-Atl-- Finnegan 3-10; Teheran 3-10
LA-Az-- Maeda 6-6; Bradley 3-2
Mia-SD-- Koehler 4-8; Pomeranz 5-7
Mil-SF-- Garza 0-0; Bumgarner 10-3

Balt-Bos-- Tillman 11-2; Price 8-5
Sea-TB-- Walker 5-7; Odorizzi 7-6
Det-Chi-- Zimmerman 8-3; Gonzalez 4-3
Cle-KC-- Tomlin 10-1; Young 2-6
Min-LA-- Santana 1-10; Chacin 3-3/2-3
Tex-A's-- Perez 6-7; Surkamp 3-3

Phil-Tor-- Eflin 0-0; Stroman 7-6
Hst-StL-- Fister 9-3; Garcia 6-6
NYY-Col-- Eovaldi 8-4; de la Rosa 2-4


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

Chi-Wsh-- Lackey 3-12; Gonzalez 1-12
Pitt-NY-- Taillon 0-1; deGrom 2-10
Cin-Atl-- Finnegan 3-13; Teheran 2-13
LA-Az-- Maeda 1-12; Bradley 2-5
Mia-SD-- Koehler 4-12; Pomeranz 2-12
Mil-SF-- Garza 0-0; Bumgarner 2-13

Balt-Bos-- Tillman 2-13; Price 4-13
Sea-TB-- Walker 2-12; Odorizzi 2-13
Det-Chi-- Zimmerman 2-11; Gonzalez 4-7
Cle-KC-- Tomlin 6-11; Young 5-8
Min-LA-- Santana 4-11; Chacin 3-11
Tex-A's-- Perez 4-13; Surkamp 1-6

Phil-Tor-- Eflin 0-0; Stroman 3-13
Hst-StL-- Fister 3-12; Garcia 4-12
NYY-Col-- Eovaldi 3-12; de la Rosa 2-6


Umpires

Chi-Wsh-- Over is 6-3-2 in Scott games this year.
Cin-Atl-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Diaz games.
LA-Az-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Knight games.
Mia-SD-- Favorites won las four Lentz games.
Mil-SF-- Six of last seven Fletcher games went over.

Det-Chi-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Wolcott games.
Cle-KC-- Five of last six Wolf games stayed under.
Min-LAA-- Six of last eight Reyburn games stayed under.
Tex-A's-- Five of last seven Carapazza games stayed under.

Phil-Tor-- Eight of last ten Miller games went over.
 
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Tuesday's six-pack

-- Cavaliers 112, Warriors 97-- Now we know who the Warriors' MVP is.

-- NBA teams up 3-1 in the Finals are 32-0 in those series; last time there was even a Game 7 when a team led 3-1 was back in 1966.

-- First half of the NBA game last night was highest scoring first half in a finals' game since a Lakers-Celtics game in 1987.

-- Eagles signed Fletcher Cox to a 6-year deal with $63M of guaranteed money, the most guaranteed money ever given to a non-quarterback.

-- Dodgers released Carl Crawford, eat $35M in money they still owe him. Oy.

-- Jason Kidd gets a 3-year, $15M extension from the Milwaukee Bucks.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Tuesday, June 14, 2016 10:10 PM

(909) MIAMI (KOEHLER) VS (910) SAN DIEGO (POMERANZ)

Play Miami.
 

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