Tuesday 6/14/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Power Sports

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The A's hammered the Rangers last night, winning 14-5. You might think that result is unlikely to be repeated, but "sharp" money (as was the case last night) seems to be on the home team yet again. Texas might be an excellent 24-10 at home, but they're only 15-15 on the road.

Like last night, the number of our A's starter aren't too encouraging. But at least he has a hot offense to back him up here. Oakland scored four times in three consecutive innings last night, the first time we've seen that in almost five years (from any team). Oakland had scored six runs in Sunday's win at Cincinnati. This is a much needed turn around after the team had previously lost its last seven games.

Texas' Martin Perez is still winless on the road. Overall, he's pitched well of late, but the last time he failed to turn in a quality outing, the A's were the opponent. Perez gave up four runs in an 8-1 loss in this ballpark. I look for the A's to surprise again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Marshall

Astros at Cardinals
Play: Astros

St. Louis enters off a 3-game sweep in Pittsburgh but holds its breath as starter Jaime Garcia has had some rough outings in the past month, including 8 runs allowed in just 7 1/3 IP across his last two starts at Busch Stadium. The hotter pitcher entering this matchup is definitely Houston's Doug Fister, who has allowed just 2 runs in his last three starts covering 18 IP (ERA 1.00) while the Astros have won in his last eight starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

San Francisco Giants -1.5 -109

Instead of laying the big juice for the Giants on the money line today, I'm going to back them on the run line at nearly even money knowing there's a good chance they win by multiple runs tonight. The Giants opened with an 11-5 victory over the Brewers yesterday for their third straight victory.

Now ace Madison Bumgarner gets the ball looking to improve on his Cy Young-caliber season already. He's 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts, including 1-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in his last three. Bumgarner is also 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in nine career starts against Milwaukee.

Matt Garza will be making his season debut for the Brewers tonight. He is coming off the worst year of his career in which he went 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA last season with the Brewers. He compiled a 4.76 ERA in three rehab starts with low Class A Wisconsin leading up to his debut. Garza is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.

Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (MILWAUKEE) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 48-14 (77.4%, +32.7 units) over the last five seasons. Bumgarner is 33-13 against the run line (+22.7 Units) after a win over the last three seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Texas Rangers -101

The Rangers and Athletics continue their AL West weekday series on Tuesday and Texas holds value at this low of juice. The Rangers continue to battle atop the AL West and losing games like this to Oakland A's is something they simply cannot do.

Martin Perez takes the hill for Texas and he's been dominant as of late. Perez has won 4 straight starts and has allowed just 7 runs in that span. He's been keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he's allowed just 2 home runs, which is a major key for him.

Eric Surkamp goes for Oakland and he continues to search for his first win since 2014. He was demoted to Triple A already once this season as he sits with a 6.41 ERA.

Some trends to consider. Rangers are 12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games. Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. American League West.

This is a very generous price on the Rangers considering their strong edge in the pitching matchup here. With that, they are worth a move.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

Reds/Braves Under 8

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to these two teams combining for 17 runs in the Reds 9-8 win on Monday. Offense figures to be a lot harder to come by for both teams with today's pitching matchup. Atlanta gives the ball to Julio Teheran, who despite a 2-6 record owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 13 starts. Teheran has owned the Reds in his career, posting a 1.78 ERA in 4 starts. Cincinnati counters with Brandon Finnegan, who is one of the more underrated starters in the league. Finnegan has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and will be facing one of the worst offenses in the league in the Braves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Indians at Royals
Play: Under 8.5

Not a fan of KC's Chris Young, but he has pitched well at home. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has been very impressive on the road, producing a 2.91 ERA. 0.97 WHIP, and .250 OBP. Both teams have solid bullpens, and both teams have been playing lower-scoring games recently. The Under is 9-0-1 in Young's last 10 starts versus division rivals. The Under is also 42-14-3 in the Indians' last 59 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Marshall

Texas +116

We know the Rangers got blasted on Monday, but this plus price, slight as it is, is too good to pass up in Oakland. Especially since Texas has won four straight starts made by Martin Perez, whose last loss was ironically on May 18 at the Coliseum vs. the A's. Since then he's only allowed 7 runs in 24 IP (2.63 ERA). Oakland has recalled Eric Surkamp to start this game despite his subpar 6.41 ERA in six starts earlier this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goodfella

Oakland TT Over 4

A very nice weather pattern for us this evening in Oakland with strong wind (20mph) blowing straight out. These A's smacked the ball around last night & Texas did have to go to their bullpen early. I expect these A's to get to Perez eventually and then get into the Texas bullpen. I feel confident that these A's plate at least 4 runs in this spot on Tuesday Night & I'm on their Team Total going OVER 4 runs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Indians at Royals
Play: Under 8.5

Not a fan of KC's Chris Young, but he has pitched well at home. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has been very impressive on the road, producing a 2.91 ERA. 0.97 WHIP, and .250 OBP. Both teams have solid bullpens, and both teams have been playing lower-scoring games recently. The Under is 9-0-1 in Young's last 10 starts versus division rivals. The Under is also 42-14-3 in the Indians' last 59 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Harry Bondi

CHICAGO CUBS -125 over Washington

Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez is an easy "Go Against" for us on Tuesday night. The veteran lefty has been very erratic this season especially over the last 7 starts in which he has one 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA. Chicago sends John Lackey with his 7-2 record and 2.63 ERA to the hill. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 8 starts and has been the best pitcher in baseball since May 1st as measured by the WHIP index. Cubs are 10-2 this season against lefties and make it 11-2 tonight!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

Atlanta Braves -120

The Atlanta Braves have a big edge on the mound tonight with Julio Teheran over Brandon Finnegan of the Cincinnati Reds. Teheran is has posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's been one of the few bright spots for the Braves. He is also 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta, his lowest ERA against any NL club with a minimum of 4 starts. He has pitched 20 shutout innings in his last 3 starts against the Reds. Brandon Finnegan is still trying to find his way in the majors, going 2-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Cincinnati is 1-12 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Reds are 3-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lee

Dodgers -143

Los Angeles is worth a look here on the road against the Diamondbacks tonight. The Dodgers will send out Kenta Maeda, who has a sensational 2.70 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 12 starts. Maeda has been dominant on the road, where he's 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP in 5 starts. Arizona will give the ball to Archie Bradley, who is just 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 5 starts. Bradley was fortunate to only give up 4 runs in his previous outing, as he allowed 5 hits and walked 4 in just 5 2/3 innings. Arizona has won 3 straight, but are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Wilton

My comp play winner for Tuesday night is the Braves to win a rare one against the Reds.

Cincy won a 9-8 slugfest last night, but tonight Julio Teheran will keep the Reds' bats in check, as Atlanta notches a rare home win.

Teheran may be just 2-6 on the year, but he is coming off an 8 inning, 8 strikeout win at San Diego his last time to the mound, and his season ERA is a stingy 2.85.

Teheran owns an even stingier 1.78 ERA in 4 career starts against Cincinnati!

Brandon Finnegan will go for the visitors, and he has pitched well over his last pair of starts, but they were both at home. Finnegan's last road start saw 4 runs cross on 6 hits in a loss at Milwaukee to drop him to 1-3 away from home for the year.

They don't win often at home, but tonight the Braves do just that.

Take Atlanta.

1* ATLANTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gabriel DuPont

Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-61 run with free picks: Pittsburgh at N.Y. METS (-140)

The STORYLINE in this game today - Although the Pittsburgh Pirates finally had a day off, make note that beginning May 13, they had at least one game scheduled every day - 31 straight - through yesterday. This is still a very tired team, which is now on the road to face the defending National League champion New York Mets.

The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Mets are currently five games back of the Washington Nationals in the N.L. East. The Nats are hosting the Chicago Cubs, and still have two left in that series. Washington could very well lose two straight, and if the Mets can sweep the Bucs the next three nights, New York would be 2-1/2 back of Washington headed into the weekend.

BOTTOM LINE is - I'm going to go off of some trends to conclude this, something I rarely do, but it's relevant here, as the Pirates come in mired in losing streaks of 0-4 on the road and 0-5 overall. Meanwhile, the Mets have won 17 of 21 against N.L. Central teams, while they're in on a 20-7 run after an off day.

4* N.Y. METS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Delaney

The Giants are going to take full advantage of the Brewers' Matt Garza, who is making his season debut tonight.

The veteran right-hander has been sidelined all season due to a right lat strain, and now jumps into a rotation with the 10th worst ERA in baseball, at 4.72. The Brewers need some help, but this is not the best spot for Garza to debut.

San Francisco has won three in a row, and will be looking to pad its lead in the N.L. West by picking up crucial wins.

Take the Giants on the Run Line.

3* GIANTS -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

My Bonus Play for tonight is on the Arizona Diamondbacks, over the Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Snakes look for their fourth straight victory. This is the middle contest of their three-game set, and Arizona comes in after improving to 4-3 on its nine-game homestand with a 3-2 win over Los Angeles in the series opener.

The Dodgers have lost three in a row after beginning their six-game road trip with a one-run victory at San Francisco. Things haven't gone well since, and with Arizona looking to make a little charge at third-place Colorado, I like the Diamondbacks to continue their winning ways.

The Dodgers are also 16-18 on the road, and though they have the better pitcher on the hill tonight, I like Arizona.

3* DIAMONDBACKS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Your Tuesday freebie is the Over in the Yankees-Rockies game.

A stop in hitter-friendly Coors Field should do wonders for the bats of New York, as the Yankees were held to just 2 runs in their last 2 games over the weekend at home against Detroit.

Tonight they face the struggling Jorge De La Rosa who has not started is close to a month, and has been working out of the bullpen of late for the Rockies.

De La Rosa owns a season ERA of 8.81, and in his starts this season, has seen 5 of the 6 land Over the total!

The Yankees will go with Nathan Eovaldi who does own a 6-2 mark, but he also has seen his ERA start to creep upwards, as his last 3 starts show a 5.94 ERA, and 2 of the 3 have played Over the total.

You get the feeling that this game could very well see plenty of crooked numbers being hung on the scoreboard, and both starters hitting the showers early.

Yankees-Rockies with some fireworks tonight. Play it Over.

3* N.Y. YANKEES-COLORADO OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, June 14

Chicago Cubs at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Chicago: 49-22 SU as a road favorite of -110 or higher
Washington: 16-37 SU as an underdog of +100 or higher

Pittsburgh at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 7-17 SU after a game without an extra base hit
NY Mets: 45-22 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs

Cincinnati at Atlanta, 7:10 PM ET
Cincinnati: 58-54 SU on road after a game where the BP threw 6 or more innings
Atlanta: 2-18 SU at home when the total is 7 to 7.5

LA Dodgers at Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
Los Angeles: 8-17 SU on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
Arizona: 6-0 SU against division opponents

Miami at San Diego, 10:10 PM ET
Miami: 9-2 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +125
San Diego: 1-10 SU after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings

Milwaukee at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Milwaukee: 25-44 SU after 2 straight games with no home runs
San Francisco: 17-3 SU as a favorite of -150 or more

Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Baltimore: 7-2 SU as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Boston: 69-73 SU in home games against right-handed starters

Seattle at Tampa Bay, 7:10 PM ET
Seattle: 15-7 SU in road games when playing with a day off
Tampa Bay: 13-25 SU after 3 or more consecutive unders

Detroit at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET
Detroit: 9-0 SU after scoring 8 runs or more
Chicago: 24-37 SU at home when the money line is +125 to -125

Cleveland at Kansas City, 8:15 PM ET
Cleveland: 109-105 SU in games played on a grass field
Kansas City: 16-7 SU as a home underdog of +100 to +125

Minnesota at LA Angels, 10:05 PM ET
Minnesota: 3-17 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Los Angeles: 40-18 SU as a favorite of -125 to -175

Texas at Oakland, 10:05 PM ET
Texas: 10-3 SU in road games after allowing 10 runs or more
Oakland: 1-9 SU in home games after a win by 6 runs or more

Philadelphia at Toronto, 12:35 PM ET
Philadelphia: 15-9 SU after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
Toronto: 30-36 SU after having won 3 of their last 4 games

Houston at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Houston: 5-12 SU against left-handed starters
St Louis: 80-46 SU after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base

NY Yankees at Colorado, 8:40 PM ET
New York: 26-15 SU in road games after scoring 1 run or less
Colorado: 6-12 SU in home games after 2 straight games without a stolen base

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Tuesday, June 14

Tuesday's MLB Game of the Day: Orioles at Red Sox

Both clubs squandered an opportunity to enter the series with the division lead when the Orioles fell at Toronto on Sunday and the Red Sox lost in Minnesota.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (A: +155, H: -175, Total: 8.5)

The Boston Red Sox and the visiting Baltimore Orioles will battle for three games with first place in the American League East on the line beginning on Tuesday at Fenway Park. Both clubs squandered an opportunity to enter the series with the lead when the Orioles fell at Toronto on Sunday and the Red Sox lost in Minnesota.


The two clubs got a day off on Monday to contemplate their respective crushing defeats, with Boston going down on a walk-off home run in the 10th inning and the Orioles leaving the tying run at third base in a 10-9 setback to the Blue Jays. The setback was the third straight for Baltimore, which allowed 30 runs in the four-game series at Toronto. The Orioles gave up a total of 29 runs in a four-game series at home against Boston bridging May and June but managed to slug their way to a pair of wins and take a 4-3 lead in the season series. The Red Sox are just 4-4 since leaving that series in Baltimore and are opening a 10-game homestand on Tuesday that includes visits from the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN 2 (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)

INJURY REPORT:

Orioles - RP D. O'Day (15-Day DL, hamstring), 3B Manny Machado (Questionable Tuesday, suspension appeal).

Red Sox - C B. Swihart (15-Day DL, ankle), C R. Hanigan (15-Day DL, neck), LF B. Holt (15-Day DL, concussion).

WEATHER REPORT: It is going to be a perfect day for baseball at Boston's historic Fenway Park on Tuesday night. Temperatures will be in the mid-70's, skies will be clear, humidity will be low, and there will be a light 5 mph breeze blowing in from the Green Monster in left field. Perfect day to hit up the Cask 'n Flagon after work and make your way over to the stadium for game-time.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Chris Tillman (8-1, 3.01 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH David Price (7-3, 4.63)

Tillman bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season with one of his best on Wednesday against Kansas City, striking out nine without issuing a walk in 7 1/3 scoreless innings to earn the win. The 28-year-old allowed three home runs in each of his previous two starts but surrendered just one extra-base hit – a double – against the Royals. Tillman missed Boston the first two times around this season but is 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 18 career starts against the Red Sox.

Price is looking much more like the ace Boston paid him to be over the last month with a string of six straight quality starts. The former No. 1 overall draft pick was a tough-luck loser in San Francisco on Wednesday, when he was reached for two runs on three hits – two solo home runs – over eight innings in a game the Red Sox went on to lose 2-1. Price was knocked around for five runs in as many innings against Baltimore on April 11 and is 8-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 20 career starts against the Orioles.

TRENDS:

* Orioles are 14-3 in Tillman's last 17 starts.
* Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
* Over is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Red Sox last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Orioles are 12-2 in Tillman's last 14 starts vs. Red Sox.

CONSENSUS: The Red Sox are picking up 64 percent of the wagers while Over 8.5 is grabbing 67 percent of the totals plays.