I don't believe this has much to any truth behind it. Clinton was only up 3 points on election day(within 1 standard deviation of polling error) Trump had fallen behind and made comebacks in polling vs Clinton through out the race.
The bias i believed lied in many a person believed someone like Trump could never win the presidency of the United States. This lead to many believing Hilary had it wrapped up no matter how small her lead actually was...
I haven't seen a Trump surge up the polls at all in 2020 like in 2016. He started out down 7 it has slowly climbed to 10 and i believe it will end up going back down to 7 as republicans that are still on the fence over Trump's personality will ultimately return to camp. A 10 point lead will be almost impossible to maintain in this extreme partisan climate.
But we will see.
538 had the race as very close several times throughout the 2016 campaign, with trump even having a lead at certain points. the race was way more volatile, and they gave trump nearly a 30% shot on election day.
2020 looks a lot different. much more stable race. and nearly a third of the electorate has already voted. so not much changing.
That's about where it should be. I would be higher if he wasn't the incumbent.
Michelangelo,
I laid the bet out super clear. It has also been stated on my pending bets page for weeks.
Why would i give you 5 to 1 on Trump being better then +105 after the votes were starting to be made public? That would be the same as simply giving you Trump 5 to 1 to win the election, yet even better.
I hope you are simply joking. Because this in all due respect is laughable.
