Trentmoney 2009 CFB

[trentmoney]

3* UVA +6

Gtech defense weak on the road, team coming off 2 prime-time games vs fsu and vtech, now go back on the road for sleepy noon kickoff...uva has righted the ship, should be able to put points on the board at home...gtech special teams have been troublesome as well...acc home dog

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* ucla/az u50

first lined total in the 50s for ucla

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

3* az st +7

one of the top defenses in the conference against one of the worst...stanford has played really well but i think they've come too far too fast...now they're TD favs against a program like az st, a team with athletes on both sides of the ball...gerhart has been great, but 20+ carries every week is gonna start to wear him down...

good luck

 

[gavin]

tough day trent, bol next week

 

[trentmoney]

Week 8: 3-6 -10.25*
YTD: 30-21 -2.5*

Penn St/Mich over 47.5 was tough as they scored 42 points the first 37 minutes and then 3 points the next 23 minutes..!! Why i usually like to take unders, as i'm 2-2 on overs this year and 8-1 on unders

2* Indiana +17.5

I know I've been fading Iowa lately but the difference here is that all they had to do was win the past two weeks, while now they have to win by 18...both teams coming off hard fought games, Iowa would have only covered this number once so far this season...whether looking at season long or conference only stats these two teams are close numbers wise, and by many metrics this line should be around 10 as opposed to 17.5...in 4 b10 games iowa has scored 30 once, which i think they'll have to in order to cover this number...3 score spread usually lends itself to back-doors as the lead is safe at that point and most teams will just play the clock and not the scoreboard...iowa has had problems covering DD spreads the last few years and I don't see anything different with this year's team...would be bigger play but IU has b-2-b and 3 of 4 on road and weak defensively

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* miss st +3.5

really like the way this team is playing as they've been competitive in every game, even when outclassed, since their first road game @ auburn...running the ball real well also, which is always important when going on the road...kentucky offense w/out hartline has been pedestrian, nothing but randall cobb, who is battling injuries as well...only 3 offensive scores @ home vs ulm last week, short passing game limits the field for them...last year a one pt win for kentucky, feel like miss st has improved while kentucky w/out hartline has not...feel the dog can win outright!!

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

upping Indiana to 3* as i'm concentrating on just a few games this week so playing more on each and less total games

 

[afawbush]

With you on the miss st. play. GL

 

[trentmoney]

With you on the miss st. play. GL

upped to 3* as well

 

[trentmoney]

2* tennessee -5.5

similar teams, but tennessee has better run game and better defense...both qbs can be inconsistent, but crompton at home w/ better run game should be more effecient...lost of freshmen handling the ball for scar (3 wrs, 2 rbs) usually not a good thing on the road vs top level defense

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* usc/oregon o47
1* cal/asu u52.5

usc and oregon two of the top rushing teams in the country...sets up 2nd and short and 3rd and manageable all day long...both offenses have hit their stride since early season struggles...usc @ ohio st was almost same total (45.5) in barkley's 1st ever road game and w/out ronald johnson against a better defense and more conservative offense...last yr this total was 56.5 and while there's no sanchez there's also a drop-off from their record setting defense...oregon w/out top 2 cb's injured should finally feel the effects against top level wrs johnson and williams

asu highest total of the year and higher than last week (49) on road vs stanford who's comparable offensively and worse defensively than cal...cal 2 weeks ago vs similar style ucla team (poor offense good defense) had a total of 44 so i see value w/ this line

good luck

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

the over in the oregon-trojan game is setting up to be my big play of the weekend...just keep checking in on the weather...it's iffy at best rite now...uoweducks said he is gonna check in from the parking lot at autzen if he can find good reception...

 

[trentmoney]

2* UNC +16

Waited to see if i could get 17 but looks like it's moving the other way now...

Tough run defense against a run oriented offense (VT runs 70/30!!!) should keep this close...unc offense has been dreadful but run game woke up last week and have to think that they can eventually improve even slightl, which is all that is needed w/ tough defense and +16...BC was +13.5 at VT and unc has better athletes, especially on defensive side of ball, and comparing fsu/bc/unc lines crossing 14 looks like value to me...last year this line was -3.5 @ unc and while unc has lost a bunch of wrs and VT has improved (mostly due to taylor passing) i'm not too sure this isn't just an over-reaction STILL to VT beat-down of Miami (spreads have been DD in 3 of 4 since then)

good luck

 

[jimmyshivers]

Like Carolina tonight as well..BOL trent

 

[trentmoney]

1* UVA?Duke u48

two horrible rushing teams and an excellent pass defense in UVA should make for a low-scoring game...at this number one team pretty much has to score in the 30's to go over or both in the high 20's...UVA has scored 20 or less in 5 of 7 and asking duke to score on the road against such a solid defense is asking a lot imo...i expect the home team to control tempo and grind out a low-scoring game

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

4* vandy +12
2* auburn +4.5 -105

gtech has won 5 in a row and are in the lead position in acc divisional race and now have to go out of conference for a b2b roadie and 4th out of 5 games on the road vs a vandy team that should give max effort in front of a home night crowd...gtech defense has struggled on the road but weak uva offense couldn't take advantage of it last week...at least vandy has run the ball well this season which should keep gtech offense off the field...gtech -6 last week @ uva, now need to win by almost 2 TDs in road game vs sec team...

was looking for +4.5 w/ auburn and finally got it...i know auburn has played poorly and lost 3 in a row but being home and getting points is a much better spot for them, as this will be the last time i'm on them this season...based on last week's lines, if this game was played then auburn would have been -2.5...so in one week they went from having to win by a fg to cover this game to having to lose by 2 fgs or a td NOT to cover this game!!! value imo...and having played 3 of 4 on the road and playing a rested LSU team coming off a bye at night in death valley they are not as bad a team as they looked last week...and ole miss got to play arkansas on a b2b roadie and 4th of 5 games on the road, so i don't believe they are as good as they looked last week...

good luck

 

[GoSooners]

Trent...I have a lean to Vandy myself. This has the feel of a game where Vandy could actually do something positive this year and come out of nowhere and win the game outright. I was hoping that the total would get to 48 so I could play the under if nothing else. But I have a feeling that we won't see that number again. GL

 

[trentmoney]

Week 9: 7-2 +5.3*
YTD 37-23 +3.05*

Started the day with the Iowa/Indiana debacle at noon so it was good to see my other plays come in...two DD dogs (Indiana and Vandy) both led with around 18 minutes left and both gave up 28 straight points...I guess that's what you get for playing bad teams and getting sucked in by the points

6* Arkansas
2* -5.5
3* -6.5
1* -6.5 -120

Arkansas has scored over 40 pts in every home game this year and comes in fresh after a lay-up against EMich...depth at skill positions rivals top level teams in the country and an offensive minded coach as well...SCar comes in after b-2-b roadies and while defensive numbers look good on the surface they've had problems stopping the run...going on the road w/out a good run game or run defense in SEC is trouble...young team at this point of the season could find the road tough...re-shuffling of o-line due to injuries and attrition and youth in secondary and lack of depth on defense due to injuries could lead to playing catch up all night w/ freshmen skill players

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* Penn St -3.5

Just feel penn st is the better team and has better leadership...Front 7 is built to beat a team like ohio st and reshuffling of o-line all season long for buckeyes could be a problem vs odrick/lee/bowman...last yr penn st was favored by almost the same amount (-2/-3) and while they're not as good i don't feel oh st is either...home field is worth at least the spread in this one, and with the better team at home i think you're getting value on the line

Might add to this later in the week

good luck

 

[AboynamedSue]

Trent,
I know this is off topic, but what do you think about the Eggles laying 3 to the Cowgirls?? I was shocked when I looked up and saw Dallas' record was 5-2. Amazing. I think they will get exposed soon.