2* ark/scar o53.5
2* mary/nc st u57
Arkansas offense has been electric at home, expect that to continue in their lowest total of the year
NC St total has become inflated due to lack of defense and high scoring affair w/ FSU last week, who is an "over" team w/ no defense and high scoring offense...Wolfpack offense hasn't been overwhelming, but scores have skyrocketed due to week defense and offense playing catch-up...this week at home vs anemic maryland offense that shouldn't be the case w/ maryland gaining less than 300 yds 4 of last 5
good luck
2* mary/nc st u57
Arkansas offense has been electric at home, expect that to continue in their lowest total of the year
NC St total has become inflated due to lack of defense and high scoring affair w/ FSU last week, who is an "over" team w/ no defense and high scoring offense...Wolfpack offense hasn't been overwhelming, but scores have skyrocketed due to week defense and offense playing catch-up...this week at home vs anemic maryland offense that shouldn't be the case w/ maryland gaining less than 300 yds 4 of last 5
good luck
1* duke/unc u45.5
my numbers have this as one of the lowest totals on the board, but now that it has crossed key number 45 it's now playable (at 42 it was one of the lowest totals on the board, now it is not)...neither team can run the ball well, duke has been surprisingly tough on run defense, surrendering less than 4 ypc in 3 of 4 acc games, while unc has been tough defensively all season long
good luck
my numbers have this as one of the lowest totals on the board, but now that it has crossed key number 45 it's now playable (at 42 it was one of the lowest totals on the board, now it is not)...neither team can run the ball well, duke has been surprisingly tough on run defense, surrendering less than 4 ypc in 3 of 4 acc games, while unc has been tough defensively all season long
good luck
I would take LSU but i'm not in love with them...they have tons of talent but it seems like they don't know what to do with them...they run up the middle w/ charles scott, but instead of continuing to bang away, they start running option w/ jefferson...then they bring in shepherd in wildcat formation...it's almost like they have too many options...that being said, the amount of talent on offense (lafell, tolliver, randle etc) should be scoring more pts and one of these days they will...whether they do it against one of the best defensive teams in the nation is another question, but it would be hard for me to lay the pts rather than take them in this one
Week 10: 2-4 -1.8*
YTD: 39-27 +1.25*
played more totals instead of sides as i've been doing real well with them and ended up doing poorly, as well as the 4 sides i passed on went 3-1..!! oh well...
5* arkansas -14 -120
thought this line would be at least 17...reminds me of last yr when ole miss was 5-4 and looking for bowl eligibility and blew out ULM 59-0 as 24 pt favs...troy is better but line is almost 10 pts less as well...arky scores 40 pts/game at home, feel that they should do the same...troy would have to score in the 30's to cover...2nd game of b-2-b roadies for troy at night in fayetteville is tough to ask for sun belt team...defense just not good enough to stop razorbacks...all 5 of hogs' wins have been by 17 or more...when they win they blow you out...feel the same thing will happen here
1* col +6
new found life w/ hansen...#91 ranked run defense should allow colorado backs stewart and sumler some running room...hard to cover as a favorite when that vulnerable against the run
1* unc +3.5
top level defense getting pts at home always a look for me (passed on nebraska and az st in same situation last week and it came back to bite me)
played another game already but not all of it is in so will post later in week
good luck
YTD: 39-27 +1.25*
played more totals instead of sides as i've been doing real well with them and ended up doing poorly, as well as the 4 sides i passed on went 3-1..!! oh well...
5* arkansas -14 -120
thought this line would be at least 17...reminds me of last yr when ole miss was 5-4 and looking for bowl eligibility and blew out ULM 59-0 as 24 pt favs...troy is better but line is almost 10 pts less as well...arky scores 40 pts/game at home, feel that they should do the same...troy would have to score in the 30's to cover...2nd game of b-2-b roadies for troy at night in fayetteville is tough to ask for sun belt team...defense just not good enough to stop razorbacks...all 5 of hogs' wins have been by 17 or more...when they win they blow you out...feel the same thing will happen here
1* col +6
new found life w/ hansen...#91 ranked run defense should allow colorado backs stewart and sumler some running room...hard to cover as a favorite when that vulnerable against the run
1* unc +3.5
top level defense getting pts at home always a look for me (passed on nebraska and az st in same situation last week and it came back to bite me)
played another game already but not all of it is in so will post later in week
good luck
Big road favorites or big conference favs are a no-no (usc last week, penn st vs iowa, uf/ark, etc....)
but playing the best offense in the sec against a sun belt team that is porous on defense and playing b-2-b on the road would be the time to lay some chalk imo...
btw-you can get it @ 13.5 now
adding 1* ark -13.5
now 6* arkansas
i've looked over this game several times and i can't see how arkansas does not score 45 or more in this game, which means troy would have to score more than 31 to lose ATS...considering arky has only given up that number once at home (week 2 vs UGA) and once on the road (35 @ alabama) i feel good about it
this line opened at 13.5, shot up immediately to 14.5/15, and then 2 days later moved back down to 13.5...so sharps took it right away, and then took it back..?? why not just wait until later in the week and maybe get 17, not like the public is gonna be all over troy, and with initial $$$ on arky why would there be buy back for such an anti-pub dog...?? looks like "manipulation" to me....
good luck
now 6* arkansas
i've looked over this game several times and i can't see how arkansas does not score 45 or more in this game, which means troy would have to score more than 31 to lose ATS...considering arky has only given up that number once at home (week 2 vs UGA) and once on the road (35 @ alabama) i feel good about it
this line opened at 13.5, shot up immediately to 14.5/15, and then 2 days later moved back down to 13.5...so sharps took it right away, and then took it back..?? why not just wait until later in the week and maybe get 17, not like the public is gonna be all over troy, and with initial $$$ on arky why would there be buy back for such an anti-pub dog...?? looks like "manipulation" to me....
good luck
1* maryland +18
1* wash st +17.5
Three-score conference home dogs...
Maryland hasn't lost a conference game by this margin and have actually been pretty stout against the run, which is what va tech likes to do...VTech games are usually played at a slow pace due to their willingness to run so much...slower pace usually favors the underdog w/ all those points...VTech last 3 games were prime time sat nite @ GTech, then thurs night games vs UNC and @ E Car...now sleepy 1pm kick might be hard to "get up" for, let alone win by 20
Wash st comes home for first time in a month, a 13pt loss but cover vs Az St, a similar type of team to UCLA, who has to travel north to Pullman for 3rd roadie in 4 games...Bruins high score all yr is 33, vs BCS team is 26...hard to be favored by 3 scores imo when you have such trouble scoring yourself
good luck
1* wash st +17.5
Three-score conference home dogs...
Maryland hasn't lost a conference game by this margin and have actually been pretty stout against the run, which is what va tech likes to do...VTech games are usually played at a slow pace due to their willingness to run so much...slower pace usually favors the underdog w/ all those points...VTech last 3 games were prime time sat nite @ GTech, then thurs night games vs UNC and @ E Car...now sleepy 1pm kick might be hard to "get up" for, let alone win by 20
Wash st comes home for first time in a month, a 13pt loss but cover vs Az St, a similar type of team to UCLA, who has to travel north to Pullman for 3rd roadie in 4 games...Bruins high score all yr is 33, vs BCS team is 26...hard to be favored by 3 scores imo when you have such trouble scoring yourself
good luck
Ucla
I agree with you on the UCLA being a heavy road fav...when's the last time they were a double-digit favorite away from home, let alone in conference?? plus UCLA has been in a funk as of late...
you ever been to pullman?? it's the outpost of college football...nobody likes to go there....
the only thing is Wazzu can be scary bad...
and good point about the USC/Stanford over...although I did watch the USC game last week and their 14 points came via a 50-yard INT return and a 75 yard pass play...that's it...
I'm surprised your UCLA/WSU under isn't more stars...I really like that one...Wazzu's QB is garbage, worse than the Virginia QB...and UCLA isn't the type of team that can blow somebody out 49-0, no matter how bad the opponent is....UCLA has been rotating QBs, and they have a good RB...and a good defense...the more I ponder this, the more I like it...
I agree with you on the UCLA being a heavy road fav...when's the last time they were a double-digit favorite away from home, let alone in conference?? plus UCLA has been in a funk as of late...
you ever been to pullman?? it's the outpost of college football...nobody likes to go there....
the only thing is Wazzu can be scary bad...
and good point about the USC/Stanford over...although I did watch the USC game last week and their 14 points came via a 50-yard INT return and a 75 yard pass play...that's it...
I'm surprised your UCLA/WSU under isn't more stars...I really like that one...Wazzu's QB is garbage, worse than the Virginia QB...and UCLA isn't the type of team that can blow somebody out 49-0, no matter how bad the opponent is....UCLA has been rotating QBs, and they have a good RB...and a good defense...the more I ponder this, the more I like it...
Nobody goes "over" vs ASU...but in 3 previous USC games they flew over...offense should have no trouble w/ weak stanford defense and the cardinal should be able to put up some points as they've been one of the better offenses all season (34 ppg)
Wazzu under only one unit bc i figure at worst i split these two and w/ a play on wazzu as the dog i'm counting on the worst bcs team in the ncaa to hold their opponent to 31 or less which they've only done 3 times this season...now ucla offense would be one to do it to, but between punt returns and ints for tds i still need them to come to play, which doesn't always happen with this team...
