Trentmoney 2009 CFB

[AboynamedSue]

Rutgers tonight...

Trent,
I know you're not playing it, but what do you think about the Rutgers under tonight?? I hear its been raining for last 2 days in the area...and Rutgers knows to win this game they are going to have to keep Daniels and Co. off the field...no way they can get in a shootout with USF...which is the type of football USF likes to play, street ball, basketball type flow...

thoughts on the total??

 

[55 % at worst]

Leave the guy a long he has to study the wind currents first.

Tools

 

[trentmoney]

2* Vandy +3.5

1-4 teams in conference should not be favored on the road..."market" and public perception (vandy 2-8, kent 5-4) force this line but these teams are real close in ability...both lost close games vs scar, both lost to miss st, vandy was actually more competitive vs UF...two weeks after kentucky opened as a 13pt dog to scar (it closed 9.5), kentucky was a 14pt dog to the same team...last yr kentucky lost at home as 3.5 favs...Last home game for vandy so motivation to win an SEC game...Bobby Johnson will have his team motivated and playing for pride

good luck

 

[jimmyshivers]

on UMD small as well, BOL Trent..

 

[GoSooners]

I like the Vandy play. BOL Trent. :toast:

 

[trentmoney]

@ shivers, GS

to think that 3 good cappers are on shitbag teams like mary and vandy in week 11 kind of makes me laugh...

@)

 

[trentmoney]

4* uga -4

auburn defense on the road has been weak, offense production has gone down vs sec...feel like uga o-line can develop run and take pressure off of cox...must win for uga

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

WEEK 11:4-6 +4.3*
YTD: 43-33 +5.55*

1* UNC +3.5

Like the way this team has been playing...top-level defense getting pts against avg offense

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

3* LSU +4.5

simply put, i feel LSU is the better team...with that said, this spread should be 2.5/3, so crossing two strong numbers presents value...LSU has the much more impressive resume imo and has played a tougher schedule and if jefferson doesn't get injured in alabama game probably is 9-1 right now...spread would then have tigers favored...Snead has been horrible vs SEC, w/ 12 ints in 6 games, having thrown a pick in 5 of those, faces an elite secondary...jefferson was really starting to click before getting injured (5/1 ratio), taking advantage of lafell and tolliver

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* michigan +12

rivalry games like these shouldn't have the road team favored by DDs, unless one is elite (don't think ohio st is) or the other is awful (last yr michigan, not this yr)

michigan was a +3.5 home to Notre Dame, +8 @ iowa (+1 @ home), +4.5 home to penn st (bet down to +3.5 close)...now getting almost 2 TDs in a must win rivalry game vs a team that just played its most important game of the year last week vs a physical iowa team in which they won in OT...this is straight out of the manual imo

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* maryland +19
1* nc st +21

ok, i'll bite...

outside of games vs duke, i have not seen spreads like these in the acc too often over the last 5 years, and usually when you do the dog has covered

nc st was +8 home vs clemson last week (+15 @ clemson), now 6 pts higher vs similarly ranked team...Vtech was a 20 pt fav vs marshall earlier this season...so nc st is equal to marshall??? this is the most pts VT has been favored by all season

fsu has given up over 5 ypc in 6 straight games and 7 of 8!!! that's almost hard to believe...a defense that poor w/ a back-up qb should not be laying 3 scores to a conference team...maryland was +21 to #12 cal opening day across the country...now they are getting almost the same number to an unranked team w/ their backup qb and one of the worst defenses in the ncaa

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* uga -8

reasons for this play:

1. uga seems to be getting their run game in order, just in time for one of the worst run defenses statistically in the ncaa

2. UK QB is horrible, cobb is banged up, and if he doesn't play or is limited i don't know how they can score

3. UK was +13 @ SCar (bet down to 9.5), +13.5 @ Auburn...UGA is better than both imo

4. Dr Bob has been on UGA a few times this yr and he might be again this week...getting it now, and depending on line movement and/or injury status, could either buy back or add to this play as more info is obtained

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* uga -8

reasons for this play:

1. uga seems to be getting their run game in order, just in time for one of the worst run defenses statistically in the ncaa

2. UK QB is horrible, cobb is banged up, and if he doesn't play or is limited i don't know how they can score

3. UK was +13 @ SCar (bet down to 9.5), +13.5 @ Auburn...UGA is better than both imo

4. Dr Bob has been on UGA a few times this yr and he might be again this week...getting it now, and depending on line movement and/or injury status, could either buy back or add to this play as more info is obtained

good luck

making a pre-emptive strike as i can sense this line is gonna move...

adding 2* UGA -8
now total 4* UGA -8

 

[GoSooners]

Trent...Dr.Bob isn't having a great year. I don't see him moving the lines nearly as much this year than in years past.

 

[trentmoney]

2* UGA/UK u51

outside of games vs auburn (up-tempo offense) this is the highest total for uga and 2nd highest for uk of the season, and i'm not sure why...both teams like to run the ball, if cobb doesn't play or is limited uk should have trouble scoring, while uga lost their top offensive weapon in aj green while defense has started to play much better...last yr, with stafford, moreno, massaquoi and green and a healthy cobb this total was 46

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* tex tech +6

landry jones has been mediocre on the road, and with question marks on o-line scores could be difficult for OU, who continues to be a favorite on the road

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

1* miss st +12

how could ark be -13 vs troy and then -12 vs miss st..??
bulldogs run the ball well, haven't lost by this margin before last week since week 2...getting blown out by arguably the best team in the country really swayed this line imo...+11 vs alabama @ home last week, now +12 @ arkansas looks like value to me

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2* uconn +6.5

both teams play close games every week...why should this game be any different??

good luck

 

[GoSooners]

2* uconn +6.5

both teams play close games every week...why should this game be any different??

good luck

Did you notice that UCONN hasn't lost a game by more than 4 points all season? I hope I didn't just jinx them...LOL

 

[trentmoney]

1* az st +5.5

teams seem pretty even to me...take the points in these situations

good luck