Yup, I bought it. Here it is. Goes off at 9. Here is the rest of his card as well:
5 Unit Play. Gotw. #780. Take Montana State +8 over Boise State (Wednesday @ 9pm est). This is a game that Montana State could very well win outright. Over the last three years, these two teams have split wins and losses between each other. What is wild is that I have Montana State as a top 140 team and Boise State as a top 160 team. Yet, it is Boise State because of its recognizable school name, that gets the love here on the spread. See, spreads are a funny thing. The spread is never what it should be, but rather, what the public will buy. Hence, betting is very similar to market principles. So, when you wager, it is helpful to spot teams that are under the radar whose value is significantly higher than what the spread indicates. I like Montana State here as it is a decent public fade and this team beat a top 100 Northern Colorado team who at that time was undefeated I believe by 24. This team's other set of losses come to quality teams such as Memphis, Nevada, Oregon and Southern Miss. I like Montana State here as they are a bit wiser and have another year of experience underneath their belt as they face Boise State with some revenge on the road today. Boise State up to now has not defeated a top 140 team as they lost to top 160 San Diego at home by three points. I think Boise State could have their work cut out for the tonight and certainly, I like the eight points here on a game that we could very well win outright. The Bobcats of Montana State are 8-0 ATS as Underdogs of 7 to 12 points and the Broncos of Boise State are 1-5 ATS at home of late.
4 Unit Play. #725. Take Fordham +11.5 over James Madison University (Wednesday @ 7pm est). Fordham by no means is a great team. But, I like the fact this team is a top 275 team and James Madison is a top 250 team. I don't think James Madison likely gets up for this game and Fordham comes off getting crushed by Villanova on the road. I like for Fordham here to show some pride and likely fall inside the cover by losing by single digits. This Fordham team lost to a good top 125 Fairfield team by 8 points on the road and now they face a top 250 team on the road catching 11.5 points. The math just works in our favor here to take Fordham coming off that tough loss to Villanova and to stick inside the number. James Madison might have more wins, but interestingly enough, it was against all teams outside the top 300 except for one. I think James Madison is challenged more than people realize today and Fordham should give them a good run for their money. JMU is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and also 0-3-1 ATS when coming off a big win of 20 points or more.
4 Unit Play. #729. Take Florida Atlantic University +10 over University of Georgia (Wednesday @ 7pm est). I have faded Georgia quite often this year. If you wait, you very well could get 10.5 or even 11 before tip-off as Georgia is the public play for this game. Georgia comes off a big win over Illinois in a semi-home game winning by 1 point against a decent top 50 opponent in Illinois. Having said that, I believe they have a bit of a let down today against FAU. FAU is by no means a slouch team. This team has talent and has been running their offense for some time now. This is the same team that lost to Manhattan on the road by seven. Why do I bring up that game? Well, Manhattan is a top 155 team. And, Georgia is the same. FAU believe it or not is a top 160 team and FAU and Georgia are actually ranked roughly in the same in many power rankings. If FAU was catching seven points today, I likely would have stayed away. But, by catching ten points and with Georgia coming off that big win over Illinois, I like them to have a hangover today against FAU. It is so tough to get up for a school like FAU when you just come off a big win such as Illinios. This is a good public fade, the Owls of FAU are 4-1 ATS when they are an underdog by this margin and the Bulldogs of Georgia note are 0-7 ATS coming off an ATS win as they are a public team that Vegas keeps a relative close eye on.
4 Unit Play. #716. Take the Denver Nuggets -3.5 over the Atlanta Hawks (Wednesday @ 9pm est). The Denver Nuggets have a good deal of revenge against these Hawks given that they lost to them 100-125 on the road earlier this year. I love the Hawks. They are my team. But, I also understand that Denver comes off back to back road losses and they are desperate for a win today for morale. This team does not lose many games as they are 19-9 and certainly, they do not lose many back to back games or, back to back to back games for that matter. This is the same team that beat the Lakers at home, beat Houston by 10 at home and beat Miami by 18. The Hawks will be a solid dog today but at the end, I suspect around the third quarter, Denver will begin pulling away and I expect them to win by about 8-12 points when all is said and done. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS as Underdogs of this margin of late.
Good luck,
IC