Thursday 6/1/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cleveland At Golden State
When: 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, June 1, 2017
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers clash in the NBA Finals for the third straight season and the festivities begin Thursday in Oakland, Calif. The Warriors won the title two years ago and the Cavaliers rallied from a 3-1 deficit last season to win their first-ever title.

Golden State is 12-0 this postseason and viewed as heavy favorites in Finals matchup No. 3, and that doesn't sit right with Cleveland power forward Kevin Love. "The whole underdog thing is funny to me, because, yeah, at the end of the day we are defending our title," Love told reporters. "We're trying to repeat, which is so hard to do. I think we will use it as fuel, we will use it as motivation, but the idea of playing into it? It's tough for me to say that is the case. I don't feel like we're underdogs." The Cavaliers also have been strong this postseason with a 12-1 mark and Warriors forward Draymond Green sees the series as a matchup of "greatness," and doesn't understand why there appears to be a lack of appreciations for how both teams rolled through the postseason. "I think you've found two great teams, and we've played that way, and maybe people don't appreciate it because of a blowout or because of a sweep," Green said. "But people may want to be careful, because I think right now you're witnessing greatness. Two great teams, great players, and that's what it is."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Small forward LeBron James averaged 29.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists in last season's Finals and has been superb this postseason with averages of 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Point guard Kyrie Irving is averaging 24.5 points this postseason while Love is contributing 17.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. The Cavaliers will be hoping that swingman Kyle Korver (6.4 postseason average) and guards J.R. Smith (6.6) and Iman Shumpert (4.7) step up their performances in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State hasn’t lived down the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in last season's finals, the turning point being a one-game suspension handed to Green after a flagrant foul for kicking James in the groin during Game 4. Small forward Kevin Durant (25.2 average) is a new part of the mix while point guard Stephen Curry (28.6) has once again been leading the postseason charge. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging a lackluster 14.4 points on 38.3 percent shooting in the postseason but he scored 25 or more three times - including a high of 37 - in last year's Finals.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Mike Brown, who formerly coached the Cavaliers, is still serving as coach of the Warriors while Steve Kerr deals with his back recovery woes.

2. Love recorded double-doubles in all five games of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics as he averaged 22.6 points and 12.4 rebounds.

3. Curry averaged 22.6 points in last year's Finals and was held below 20 points in four of the seven games.

PREDICTION: Warriors 117, Cavaliers 113

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - Cleveland at Golden State


ATS Trends


Cleveland
•Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cavaliers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
• Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
• Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• Cavaliers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Cavaliers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Cavaliers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Cavaliers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
• Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.



Golden State
•Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• Warriors are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.
• Warriors are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Warriors are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
• Warriors are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Warriors are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Warriors are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
• Warriors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Thursday games.
• Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
• Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


OU Trends


Cleveland
•Over is 3-0-1 in Cavaliers last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Over is 26-9-1 in Cavaliers last 36 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Over is 15-6 in Cavaliers last 21 overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
• Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• Over is 26-11-1 in Cavaliers last 38 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3-2 in Cavaliers last 12 NBA Championship games.
• Under is 9-4 in Cavaliers last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Over is 29-14-1 in Cavaliers last 44 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.



Golden State
•Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall.
• Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Central.
• Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Under is 20-7 in Warriors last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 7-3-2 in Warriors last 12 NBA Championship games.
• Under is 28-13-2 in Warriors last 43 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Head to Head


•Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings in Golden State.
• Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers
Jun 01 '17, 3:40 PM in 1h
MLB | Rockies vs Mariners
Play on: Rockies +120 at betonline

Take Colorado (#915)

The Colorado Rockies have been remarkably adept at avoiding extended losing streaks this season. The Rockies have matched their longest skid of the year, heading into their afternoon affair in Seattle today, dropping each of their last three games.

Following the Rockies lone previous three game skid this year – at home against Washington – they immediately responded with back-2-back wins as part of a 4-2 road trip. I’m expecting similar results this afternoon from a squad that has played .667 ball on the highway this season while cashing an impressive 20 different times already this season at an underdog price.

The Mariners scored exactly one run in five straight losses last week, including three consecutive home losses to the White Sox. They got shut out twice in Boston last weekend. Even though their bats have been more productive this week, Seattle is not a team that I trust to put crooked numbers up on the scoreboard on a regular basis.

The Mariners are 3-7 with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. Of their nine home losses this season, Gallardo has been on the mound for four of them. Two of their three wins for Gallardo came in games where Seattle scored 11 runs or more, which puts them at 1-7 with Gallardo when they don’t produce double digit runs. Gallardo is coming off his highest pitch count of the season. He’s been struggling with his command (five walks last time out) and with the gopher ball (multiple home runs allowed in each of his last two home starts).

The Rockies are 5-0 on the highway with rookie Kyle Freeland on the hill, with victories at the Dodgers, DBacks, Padres, Twins and Reds home fields. All five of those wins came with an underdog pricetag, just like the one we’re seeing today. Freeland has held three of those five opponents to a single run. Seattle has struggled mightily against lefties this season, ranked #14 out of 15 teams in the AL in OPS against southpaws and #12 in batting average against.

From a bullpen standpoint, neither team has any sort of a rest edge this evening. From an efficiency standpoint, the Rockies bullpen has an enormous edge in the latter stages. Colorado’s ratio of 21 saves to 3 blown saves and 3 losses is very different from Seattle’s ratio: 10 saves, 11 blown saves and 11 bullpen loses. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Rockies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Conn
Jun 01 '17, 10:05 PM in 7h
MLB | MIN vs LAA
Play on: OVER 8½ -115

1* Bonus Play on Twins/Angels over 8½ -115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top Dog LB

MLB ROCKIES +110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ace / Line Beaters

NBA CAVALIERS/WARRIORS u223

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top Shelf Sports Pick

NBA WARRIORS ‑300

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monster Sports Picks

MLB BOSTON ‑130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr Profits Picks

MLB LA ANGELS ‑115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tommy King Wins

MLB BOSTON ‑125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sportsbook Advisor

MLB ARIZONA ‑120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Team Underground

MLB CLEVELAND INDIANS ‑220

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Line Mover Sports

MLB A\'S +1.5 ‑115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tys Terrific Tips

MLB CARDINALS +105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Assassin Sports Betting

MLB ARIZONA/MIAMI ‑115 o8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

NBA Finals Preview

We know a lot of our readers are going to be betting this “must-see” NBA finals so we’re going to give you some recommendations on how to bet it based on value. Personally, we’re playing it LIVE, in-game because that’s where the best value opportunities arise. However, there are certainly other ways to bet it too.

The Warriors greatness has been written about and talked about everywhere. There is nothing we can say that is going to add to their toughness, talent or determination. Throw the amazing Kevin Durant into the mix this year and betting against these Warriors becomes even more daunting. That said, there is truly only one way to bet this and that is to play the Cavaliers in the series and/or individually in the games. The Warriors hype train is off the charts, which means the Cavaliers are being offered inflated points/prices and it’s a horrible idea to be offering LeBron James and the Cavs exaggerated points. Aside from also being incredibly talented, the Cavaliers are being disrespected here, which means they’ll come into this series with a chip on their shoulder knowing that nobody gives them a chance. Golden State -270? Are you kidding!?

It would be one thing if the Cavs had no chance, just like any team that played them or Golden State in the playoffs but that’s not the case here. The Cavs have a chance and if they do win, it’ll probably be in six games because chances are that they are not going to win another Game 7 in Golden State should it get that far. Beating the Warriors four times seems impossible but here’s why the Cavaliers should be played in the series and/or taking seven points in Game 1 or anytime they are being offered points:

For all the analytics, predictors, oddsmakers, etc., the NBA Finals tend to be decided by the best player. Since 2010, you could squint and see the best player winning the NBA Championship in six of the seven series—and even that is debatable considering the way Kawhi Leonard played offensively and defensively in that 2014 matchup against the Miami Heat. Would anyone argue that LeBron James is not the best player in the world right now? No, they wouldn’t.

For all the talk about the mismatches that the Warriors lineup creates, they are predominantly a perimeter team. Their 19.8 drives (to the basket) per game illustrate that point. The Warriors want to push the tempo of the game. They look to move the ball, run the court and exploit mismatches at any chance they get. Because of this, the Warriors prefer to have Draymond Green on the floor as a “Center” in order to maximize their style of play offensively and defensively. One need only look to the minutes per game played in the postseason for confirmation of that point. The Warriors players, who have logged the most minutes per game during this postseason run, are (in order): Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala. No traditional centers in their top five. You would have to go nine deep in terms of minutes per game before finding a traditional center who has logged significant minutes for the Warriors during the playoffs. Cleveland can exploit this. While leaving Kevin Love and Tristen Thompson on the floor could pose some defensive matchup problems, it can also create some opportunities for the Cavs to grab more rebounds and control the game. The Warriors grabbed only 69.1% of available defensive rebounds in their matchup against the Spurs—a team similar to the Cavs in their ability to play with two skilled big men. The Warriors rebounding percentage was the worst of any team in the conference finals—in either conference. Finally, Tristan Thompson has grabbed at least seven offensive rebounds in a game three times this postseason. Look for that trend to continue against the Warriors.

What about depth? The addition of Kevin Durant wasn’t one without a price. While the Warriors won the Durant sweepstakes, they lost Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Mareese Speights, Harrison Barnes and Leandro Barbosa. Sure, Durant essentially replaces Barnes, but that is a lot for any team to lose—especially for the second unit. The Warriors have scored 122.5 points per 100 possessions with Stephen Curry on the floor. News flash: That is a lot of points. The Warriors are not so fortunate when Curry goes to the bench, however—averaging a mere 97.4 points per 100 possessions during that time. That 25.1 point swing is the largest on-off differential among players who have logged at least 100 minutes in the playoffs so the Warriors need Curry on the floor. As drastic as those offensive numbers are, the defensive gaps for the Warriors are just as significant when Draymond Green takes a breather. When Green is on the floor, teams have scored just 94.4 points per 100 possessions. Compare that with the success teams have had scoring when Green was on the bench—111.9 per 100 possessions. That is a 17.5 point jump with Green resting so the Warriors need Green on the Floor too. Both Channing Frye (72.7%) and Kyle Korver (62.3%)— two key reserves for the Cavs— rank in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage among the 88 players who have taken at least 50 shots in the playoffs. That does not bode well for the Warriors—advantage Cavs.

“Styles make fights” is a phrase often used in the boxing world but is applicable here. It simply means that sometimes wins and losses are decided more by match-ups and style of play than it is by talent.

Whenever LeBron James is on your team, you have a chance to win. He can score with the best of them, but he really turns the game on the defensive side of the ball. Having a player like LeBron, who can guard a point guard and a center in the same defensive possession is a luxury and a rarity. LeBron’s ability to mask the weaknesses of others on the defensive side of the ball is something to keep an eye on. The Warriors succeed on offense by moving the ball, setting screens and creating mismatches. Having a player capable of defending every Warriors player on the floor will create a unique challenge for the Warriors. We saw how much the Warriors struggled against the Spurs before Kawhi Leonard got hurt—the Warriors were losing by 23 at home.

We could go on and on about the advanced metrics, the style of play, the free throw attempts per game, the points per possession and so on but ultimately, nobody on the Warriors can guard LeBron James one-on-one while the Cavs have players that can slow down the Warriors. That could be the difference between winning and losing but the inflated points being offered makes the Cavaliers such a great game-to-game option.

Our recommendation is to take +7 in Game 1 to begin and play it by ear from there. Playing Cavs to win series @ +220 is another great value bet. Good luck and enjoy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Twins vs. Angels
Pick: Angels

The set-up: Albert Pujols' quest for his 600th career HR has gone largely unnoticed and has definitely gone under-appreciated. That quest continues when the LA Angels open a four-game home series against the Minnesota Twins. The 26-23 Twins only marginally own a better record than the 28-28 Angels but while Minnesota is in a virtual first-place tie with the Indians in the AL Central, the Angels may be a second place team in the AL West but they trail the Astros by 11 games! Both teams come in 5-5 over their last 10 but the Twins are in the midst of a four-game slide in which they've surrendered a total of 48 runs. Minnesota just got swept at home by the aforementioned Astros, while allowing 40 runs in three games!

The pitching matchup: Adalberto Mejia (1-1 & 4.64 ERA) gets the nod for the Twins and Alex Meyer (2-2 & 5.79 ERA) for the Indians. Mejia has made five starts in 2017 and while he he has yet to allow more than three runs in any one start, he has worked more than five innings just once in those five outings. Mejia has never faced the Angels. Meyer returns from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms to make his sixth start of the season. He only missed one turn and Meyer, who was acquired from Minnesota in the deal involving Ricky Nolasco last August, will be facing his former team for the first time.have

The pick: Meyer owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five starts for the Angels in 2017 but those in the Los Angeles organization still reportedly have faith in their 6-foot-9 right-hander. Mejia is a work in progress and started the season as the No. 5 starter but had three rough outings and was sent to Triple-A sporting a 5.79 ERA. He returned to start the second game of a doubleheader on May 21 against the Kansas City Royals and earned his first major league victory. He gave up three runs in five innings for a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. He has control issues and has given up 12 walks in just 21 1/3 innings this year. Mejia can't be expected to go much more than five innings and Minnesota's bullpen has allowed 36 runs (32 earned) over 24 innings during the team's four-game losing streak (that's an ERA of 12.00!).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cal Sports

Rockies at Mariners
Play: Under 8.5

Seattle’s offense has hit .305 over the last 7 days but that is misleading because they had 28 hits in their 3 games at Colorado. The Mariners have still gone 1-6-1 O/U their last 8 games and are now back at home where they score 5 runs last night but only 8 runs in their 4 previous home games. Colorado is averaging 5 runs/game on the season but only 4 per game the last 7 and 3.5 per game in inter-league play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oskeim Sports

Minnesota at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -110

Minnesota left-hander Adalberto Mejia is a glorified Triple-A arm who continues to implode in the Majors. The 23-year-old toes the rubber with a 4.64 ERA, 5.52 FIP and 5.01 SIERA in five starts this season, together with an alarming 5.06 BB/9 rate and a 1.69 HR/9 rate.

Mejia's two-seam fastball has generated very few swings and misses and his secondary pitches are far from being average. In fact, scouts have called his changeup a "batting practice" pitch that isn't "fooling anyone." In one road start this season, the southpaw allowed three runs (2 earned) and two walks in just 1 2/3 innings of work.

From a technical standpoint, Minnesota is a money-burning 0-4 in its last four games versus American League West opponents and 0-4 in its last four games overall, whereas the Angels are a profitable 4-0 in their last four tilts against American League Central foes, 6-1 in their last seven home games and 7-2 in their last nine home affairs versus left-handed starters.

Let's also note that the Twins are just 16-38 in their last 54 trips to Los Angeles. Minnesota's bullpen continues to implode in 2017, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP overall, including a 10.55 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in its last seven games. In contrast, the Angels' relief staff enters tonight's game with a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games.

Finally, Los Angeles applies to a very good 41-9 and 36-6 systems that invest on certain home favorites of -175 or less versus teams with a middling starting pitcher and a scuffling offense (batting .215 or worse L/5 games). At a bargain price, take the Los Angeles Angels as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick for Thursday and invest with confidence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona at Miami
Play: Under 8

This game fits a perfect totals system that dates tom 2004 and averages under 5 runs. Play the Under for road favorites like Arizona with a total of 8 or less that are off a road win vs an opponent off a home win that scored 10 or more runs. Miami is 6-0 under as a home dog off a home win scoring 5 or more runs. Arizona has played under in 18 of 25 on the road and 5 of 6 on Thursdays. In the series 5 of 7 have gone under in Miami. Greinke goes for Arizona and he has gone under in his last 3 road starts and 5 of 6 on the road in June. He has allowed 2 or less runs in his last 3 road starts vs the fish. Locke makes his first start of the year for Miami and he was solid with a 1.77 Era in 4 rehab starts.