MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Zack Greinke's teams have never lost one of his starts against the Marlins (team win/loss 7-0).
Double-Play Picks
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners (-140, 8.5)
The Mariners are looking to complete a four-game sweep of the Rockies in their home-and-home set Thursday afternoon in Seattle. The Mariners have dominated the first three games, outscoring the Rockies 21-9, but don’t count out Colorado just yet.
Despite Wednesday’s loss, the Rockies are still one of the best and most profitable road teams in the MLB this season. Colorado is 18-9 away from Coors Field, which has led to a road money total of $1143, the second best mark in the Bigs.
Colorado sends rookie Kyle Freeland to the mound for the finale of the four-game series. The 24-year-old southpaw has been a great addition to the Rockies rotation this season, going 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and when he is away from hitter-friendly Coors Field those numbers get even better.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Freeland’s five road starts, while the left-hander is personally 3-0, with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.327 WHIP.
Want more good news Rockies backers? The Mariners do not match up well against left-handers this season. Seattle ranks 23rd in the MLB in runs scored off lefties, hitting just .229 (22nd) with an OPS of .641 (27th).
Meanwhile, the Mariners counter with Yovani Gallardo. The veteran right-hander hasn’t overly enjoyed his first season in Seattle, particularly when he takes the mound at Safeco Field.
The Mariners are 1-4 in Gallardo’s five starts at home this season, with the 31-year-old pitching to a horrid 7.00 ERA and a 1.593 WHIP.
Colorado is in a bit of a funk, but they have shown they are a good team, especially on the road. This value is too much to pass up.
Pick: Rockies +130
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (+105, 8)
The Arizona Diamondbacks land in Miami on Thursday to open a four-game weekend series with the Marlins - and they are sending their ace to the hill for Game 1.
The pick for this game comes down to the pitching matchup. You give us Zack Greinke against the Marlins with limited juice (-125 today) and we'll take it every day of the week.
Greinke has been his usual self this season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA and a 6-3 record in 11 starts - same old Zack with only 14 walks vs. 84 strikeouts.
On the mound for Miami is Jeff Locke, who will be making his Marlins' debut this evening after missing the first two months of the season with a shoulder issue. Locke was considered by many to be a good offseason pick-up for the Marlins' rotation, but he's never been a solid, dependable starting pitcher during his time in Pittsburgh with the Pirates.
Even if Locke does happen to come out on fire in his season debut, he will only be asked to go four or five innings and the leaky Marlins bullpen will have to contain the Diamondbacks. The Marlins' bullpen owns a 4.10 ERA, has only six saves to go with eight blown opportunities, and has allowed 23 home runs thus far on the season.
Bonus stat: Zack Greinke's teams have never lost one of his starts against the Marlins (team win/loss 7-0).
Pick: D-Backs -125
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 48-41-5
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays (4-2, 3.15 ERA, $153)
Marco Estrada has been throwing fire in his last two starts allowing two earned runs (both solo home runs) in 13.2 innings, has 20 strike outs and a .805 WHIP over that stretch.
Estrada and the Blue Jays welcome CC Sabathia and the American East leading Yankees to the Rogers Centre and are -153 chalk.
Slumping: Yovani Gallardo, Seattle Mariners (2-5, 5.76 ERA, $-451)
Yovani Gallardo continues to be paid to be a Major League Starting pitcher and is eating up innings for the disappointing Seattle Mariners.
The struggling righty owns an ERA of 5.76, an opponent’s on base percentage of .358, he’s only struck out 41 batters in 10 starts, and ranks 213 out of 227 in starting pitcher money at $-451. In his last start at Safeco Field he gave up 9 earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Chicago White Sox.
Gallardo is starting today at home against the road warrior Colorado Rockies and are -140 home favorites.
Thursday's Top Trends
* The Cleveland Indians are 9-0 in Corey Kluber’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -220 vs. A's
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-2 in Brandon McCarthy’s last 11 starts. -116 @ Cardinals
* Under is 11-2-2 in the last 15 meetings between the Red Sox and Orioles. BOS/BAL Total: 9
* The New York Yankees are 6-0 in CC Sabathia’s last 6 starts vs. American League East. +136 @ Blue Jays
* The Miami Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. +112 vs. Diamondbacks
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There are only eight games on the MLB schedule today - none of them will be impacted by rain and only one contest will have any wind worth talking about.
The Brewers are in Queens to take on the Mets and their finger wagging mascot. The wind for this game will be blowing out at 15 miles per hour to right field with the total currently set at 8.5.
Ump Of The Day
Tom Hallion: Tom Hallion is behind the plate in Cleveland this afternoon and that isn’t great news for pitchers. So far in 2017 the Over has cashed in 10 of 11 games he has been calling balls and strikes (90.9 percent).
Hallion’s tiny strike percentage (61.94 percent) is forcing pitchers to work around the middle of the plate and that’s always trouble against big league hitters. Both Jharel Cotton and Corey Kluber head into the today’s game with ERA’s over 5.00. The total is currently sitting at very obtainable 8.5.
