SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +129 over NEW YORK
Zach Wheeler’s return from TJS last year was pushed back multiple times by elbow pain and he threw only one inning of rehab work. He was finally shut down and didn’t resume work until pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Nine games in and there are some things to like about Zach Wheeler but not enough to warrant being this price against the feisty Brew Crew with Chase Anderson starting.
Both Wheeler’s control and first-pitch strike rate have been a little shaky throughout his career and this year's marks are right in line with his career norms. He's missing bats at about the same rate as he did prior to his injury and should continue to rack up his fair share of strikeouts. He's still doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground as well. He's been a little unlucky with his home run per fly ball rate, so homers aren't likely to be an ongoing issue for him. Wheeler was a true wild card heading into the season after having missed the last two seasons but his skills look nearly identical to those from 2014, prior to the injury. The problem is that Wheeler gets himself into trouble with walks and is therefore prone to three-run innings. With 12 walks in his past 23 innings, a WHIP of 1.40 and an xERA of 4.22 over his last five starts, there is too much risk in this starter and team for our liking.
Chase Anderson’s numbers are almost identical to Zach Wheeler’s. Anderson’s ERA/xERA split is 3.72/4.02 while Wheeler’s is 3.83/4.02. Anderson has a BB/K split of 22/52 over 56 frames while Wheeler’s split is 22/45 over 49 frames. Anderson’s numbers and metrics just keep getting progressively betting and as a result, he’s being sold short here. Anderson’s swing and miss rate was 18% last game and is now 12% on the year. He has 28 K’s over his past 26 innings and in four of his 10 starts this year Anderson has allowed one run or less. The Brewers are playing some great baseball and it’s been consistent all season, which also adds to their appeal here.
Colorado +130 over SEATTLE
Kyle Freeland is not our target here. In fact, it looks like things could turn bumpy soon for Freeland because his success has had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction, which is going to come but with a 61% groundball rate, we’ll hope he hangs on for at least one more start.
The real target here is fading Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo should not be bet, ever and he certainly cannot be priced in this range either. His early results underscore why that is the case (5.76 ERA, 5.90 xERA, 1.59 WHIP). His underlying skills give no reason for optimism either with a BB/K split of 25/41 in 55 frames and a swing and miss rate of 5%. This is a starter that missed two months with a shoulder injury after a rough April last year but things hardly improved upon his return. Gallardo is posting career-worst command, skills, and xERA, while his first-pitch strike rate of 54% continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists so it's time to move on and fade this stiff whenever possible.
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +175 over Minnesota
Adalberto Mejia went 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA in 2 innings for the Twins last year. This prospect with a decent repertoire and pitchability was shut down shortly after that late-August MLB debut due to innings limit. He had an impressive 3.00 ERA with a 126/30 K/BB split in 132 IP at AA/AAA levels but this could be a case of pushing a prospect too hard too fast because the Twins pitching staff is one of desperation. This season, Mejia has one pure quality start in five tries. Over 21 innings, has 19 K’s but he’s walked 12 batters. He also has a fly-ball lean profile, which is another sign he’s overthrowing or trying to do more than he’s capable of. Mejia has upside but he’s too green with just under 90 innings of work at the Triple-A level. He’s worth watching but he’s not MLB ready just yet. Furthermore, the Twins bullpen is in serious trouble after the team lost its last four games by scores of 8-6, 16-8, 7-2 and 17-6. That bodes well for the Halos because Mejia is not likely to go past five and that’s if everything goes better than expected.
Alex Meyer is a sufficiently large human (6’9”, 225 pounds) now in his third organization, who has been battling both his control and ability to stay on the mound. A former first-round pick by the Nationals in 2011, Meyer ended up in the Angels organization via the Twins, where Los Angeles had Meyer raise his arm slot and work on developing a consistent off-speed offering. His fastball is still plus, maybe plus-plus when he’s really on it, coming in around 95-96 and touching 99 with good life. He can also take something off the pitch to give it natural sinking action in the low 90s. His slider can also be a plus pitch but much of his control problems stem from losing the release point on the pitch. The Angels are hoping that getting back to his higher slot helps the shoulder and control, as he’s been going backwards in terms of IP, logging 50.1 IP between the majors and minors last season after going for 94.2 in 2015 and 130.1 in 2014. Consistency and staying on the field, both in a general health-wise sense and working deeper into games will be the name of the game for Meyer in 2017.
His last work was on May 20 against the Mets in which he went just four innings and surrendered three earned runs. Meyer only allowed three hits and struck out seven batters in that start 11 days ago but he walked four batters. He’s been working on his control since and if he ever gets it under control, he’s going to be a beast out there. Alex Meyer has filthy stuff. He has struck out 28 batters in 23 innings. His age (27) and his live arm keeps this flame very alive for us, as he’s a minor tweak away from being dominating and he’s paid his dues too.
