Thursday 6/1/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Wilton

Thursday comp play is the Cavs plus the points at the Warriors in Game One of this year's NBA Finals.

Both teams have had plenty of time off, as the Cavaliers have not played since last Thursday when the waltzed past Boston, while the Warriors have been off from live action since May 22nd.

That time off by Golden State I see as an issue, as the Warriors may be 12-0 straight up this postseason, but they have been slow to get started when playing the opening game of a series.

Need proof? Well, the Dubs could not cover in their opening round against Portland in Game One, and they followed with a pointspread failure in the semifinals in Game One against the Jazz.

In the conference finals, Golden State trailed San Antonio big before coming back for the outright, but failing the pointspread.

0-3 in Game One this postseason, and tonight they are laying a big number to a team that rattled off 3 in a row last year in this round to cop the NBA crown.

Cavs will be there plus the points on Thursday.

2* CLEVELAND

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR ODonnell | NBA Total
Free pick 702 GSW / 701 CLE Under 225.5 Greek

Analysis: Free JRO Banger here as the UNDER Lebron/Seth Game 1 total is where we are @ with the first Game.. Power Rated @ 219.4 points .... Let's Look for the D to check in the hotel tonight... Under 225.5 is the FREE Game 1 NBA Play
UNDER We Go

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach
Jun 01 '17, 1:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Brewers vs Mets
Play on: Brewers +134 at BMaker

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Free Pick Thursday EARLY Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - Chase Anderson has been a streaky pitcher for the Brewers this season. He started off strong this season, then hit a tough patch, and now I have a strong suspicion that he is back! Anderson threw a gem versus Arizona last week and really threw heat while striking out 11 Diamondbacks. The Brewers are off of a 7-1 win yesterday and Anderson and his teammates will bring plenty of confidence for this one. Milwaukee is 6-2 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Mets are 6-11 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, New York is an ugly 3-9 in day games this season. A lot of underdog value here as the Mets lost Zach Wheeler's first three home stats this season. Though they've now won the last 2 home games with Wheeler on the mound, he did walk 9 in the 11 innings spanning those two outings. The point is that New York is a "questionable" favorite to be in this price range today and I like Anderson and the underdog Brewers in this spot. Free Pick on MILWAUKEE early Thursday afternoon. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer
Jun 01 '17, 10:05 PM in 13h
MLB | Twins vs Angels
Play on: Angels -109 at BMaker

I'm recommending a play on the Angels on Thursday night with Meyer over Mejia. Minnesota is in first place in the AL Central by percentage points, but you would never know it by the humiliating week it currently is suffering through. The Twins have allowed 48 runs their last four games while using 23 pitchers and the Astros scored 16 and 17 runs against them in two different games. Also, the Twins blew leads in Sunday's matchup against Tampa Bay and ended up losing in 15 innings. The Twins have played better on the road, but this still is a tough situation traveling to the West Coast with a beleaguered bullpen. Adalberto Mejia has a 4.64 ERA in five games and in his one road start gave up three runs (two earned) in 1 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Alex Meyer is making his first start since coming off the disabled list due to back spasms and will face the Twins for the first time. Los Angeles is 17-9 at home and comes off a 2-1 win over the Braves last night. We're backing the Angels on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports
Jun 01 '17, 8:00 PM in 11h
Soccer | Ireland vs Mexico
Play on: UNDER 2½ -145

under 2.5

Bonus Play on Mexico and Ireland to stay under the total on Thursday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan
Jun 01 '17, 7:10 PM in 10h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins +117 at 5Dimes

5* graded play on Miami (902) as they take on Arizona in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Miami is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.

We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.

So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 83-66 hitting 55.7% winners and has made 49.6 units/unit wagered since 2012. The system has also averaged an impressive 139 dog play. Play against all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ARIZONA) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Marlins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence
Jun 01 '17, 3:40 PM in 6h
MLB | Rockies vs Mariners
Play on: Rockies +116 at BMaker

Play - Colorado Rockies w/Freeland vs Gallardo (Game 915).

Edges - Rockies: Freeland 5-0 with 2.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP away… Mariners: Gallardo 1-4 with 7.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP home this season… With Gallardo 1-4 his last five overall home team starts, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dustin Hawkins
Jun 01 '17, 7:05 PM in 10h
MLB | Red Sox vs Orioles
Play on: Red Sox -116 at 5Dimes

Bonus Play on Red Sox -116

Baltimore is 0-9 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. Orioles pitcher Wade Miley is 1-11 against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Miley is 0-1 when starting against Boston with an ERA of 40.60 and a WHIP of 6.767.Bonus Play on Red Sox -116

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Karpinski
Jun 01 '17, 3:40 PM in 6h
MLB | COL vs SEA
Play on: UNDER 8½ +100

This game will be the finale of a 4-game home-and-home between the Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners. This is a day game after a night game so I like the UNDER in this one on Thursday afternoon. Seattle plays in a pitcher's ballpark, and the games will be lower scoring. Seattle will be going with Yovani Gallardo in this game. He has allowed three or fewer runs in four of the last five starts. Kyle Freeland is in line to start for the Rockies in this one. He has just a 3.43 ERA and he has thrown a quality start in six of his last seven starts. Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitchers. They are hitting just .213 against lefties. Everything points to the UNDER in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson
Jun 01 '17, 9:00 PM in 12h
NBA | Cavs vs Warriors
Play on: Warriors -7 -105 at BMaker

1* Bonus Play Golden State Warriors.

We think this is going to be a competitive series, but we’re expecting the Warriors to pull away down the stretch in Game 1 for a comfortable ATS victory. Golden State finally gets its shot at revenge after falling apart with a 3-1 lead in last year’s Final (we had a play on the Cavaliers in Game 7 on the MONEY-LINE last season). This is the third straight time these teams have met in the Finals. Their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even the casual basketball fan. Both teams are stacked top to bottom with offensive and defensive talent. Each has a lot of experience and fantastic coaching staffs. Note that Cleveland is just 10-13 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 13-15 ATS this season against good offensive teams that score 106-plus points per contest, while the Warriors are 23-13 ATS against good offensive teams which average over 106 points. Consider a second look at GOLDEN STATE in Game 1 of the 2017 NBA Finals.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

— Astros 17, Twins 6— In nine innings vs Minnesota bullpen this week, Astros scored 28 runs.

— A’s 3, Indians 1— Chad Pinder homered twice for a team that really needed a win.

— Padres 2, Cubs 1— Chicago lost its eight road games; this was an 0-6 road trip.

— Brewers 7, Mets 1— You walk Eric Sogard three times, you deserve to lose.

— They sell roasted grasshoppers at Mariner games in Seattle. Seriously.

— Mike Tirico will replace Al Michaels on Thursday Night Football this fall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Preview: Cavaliers at Warriors

LeBron James averaged 29.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists in last season's Finals and has been superb this postseason with averages of 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-7, 225.5)

Series tied 0-0

The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers clash in the NBA Finals for the third straight season and the festivities begin Thursday in Oakland, Calif. The Warriors won the title two years ago and the Cavaliers rallied from a 3-1 deficit last season to win their first-ever title.

Golden State is 12-0 this postseason and viewed as heavy favorites in Finals matchup No. 3, and that doesn't sit right with Cleveland power forward Kevin Love. "The whole underdog thing is funny to me, because, yeah, at the end of the day we are defending our title," Love told reporters. "We're trying to repeat, which is so hard to do. I think we will use it as fuel, we will use it as motivation, but the idea of playing into it? It's tough for me to say that is the case. I don't feel like we're underdogs." The Cavaliers also have been strong this postseason with a 12-1 mark and Warriors forward Draymond Green sees the series as a matchup of "greatness," and doesn't understand why there appears to be a lack of appreciations for how both teams rolled through the postseason. "I think you've found two great teams, and we've played that way, and maybe people don't appreciate it because of a blowout or because of a sweep," Green said. "But people may want to be careful, because I think right now you're witnessing greatness. Two great teams, great players, and that's what it is."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as seven-point home favorites for Game 1 and, despite a very brief stop at -6.5, the current point spread is the same as the opening figure. The total hit the betting board at 225.5 and has yet to move off that initial number.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand).

Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Probable, ankle), C Z. Pachulia (Probable, heel), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-32 SU, 44-47-4 ATS, 56-38-1 O/U): Small forward LeBron James averaged 29.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists in last season's Finals and has been superb this postseason with averages of 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Point guard Kyrie Irving is averaging 24.5 points this postseason while Love is contributing 17.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. The Cavaliers will be hoping that swingman Kyle Korver (6.4 postseason average) and guards J.R. Smith (6.6) and Iman Shumpert (4.7) step up their performances in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (79-15 SU, 48-43-3 ATS, 41-53 O.U): Golden State hasn’t lived down the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in last season's finals, the turning point being a one-game suspension handed to Green after a flagrant foul for kicking James in the groin during Game 4. Small forward Kevin Durant (25.2 average) is a new part of the mix while point guard Stephen Curry (28.6) has once again been leading the postseason charge. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging a lackluster 14.4 points on 38.3 percent shooting in the postseason but he scored 25 or more three times - including a high of 37 - in last year's Finals.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall.
* Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings in Golden State.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of users are siding with the road underdog Cleveland Cavaliers and 67 percent are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Beware Cavs bettors: NBA Finals rematches have not gone well for defending champions

There have been eight NBA Finals rematches since 1970 and only once has the team that won the first encounter gone on to prevail a second time.

Repeating as NBA champion has proven difficult in the past - and it's even harder when defending champs face the team they beat in the Finals the year before.

Entering Thursday's opening game between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers (which is the first time two teams have met in the final for three straight years), there have been eight NBA Finals rematches since 1970 - and only once has the team that won the first encounter gone on to prevail a second time. This strangely runs counter to the six instances prior to 1970 in which teams met in an NBA Finals rematch. In those cases, the defending champion went 5-1.

With the Warriors are near -300 favorites to avenge their loss to the Cavaliers in last years finals, here’s a look at the previous eight NBA Finals rematches, and how both teams fared:

1973 NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks

1972 result: Lakers win in five games
1973 result: Knicks win in five games

This series was an exact flip of the previous year's result. In 1972, the Knicks won the opener but lost the next four games. A year later, it was the Lakers prevailing in Game 1 but proceeding to drop four in a row. None of the games were decided by more than nine points, with four of them won by five points or fewer. Only twice did a team reach 100 points over the final four games following the Lakers' 115-112 victory in Game 1.

1979 NBA Finals: Washington Bullets vs. Seattle SuperSonics

1978 result: Bullets win in seven games
1979 result: SuperSonics win in five games

Weirdly, this series followed the same pattern as the first one on this list. The Bullets captured Game 1 at home, but didn't win another game the rest of the finals. Seattle took Games 2 and 3 by double digits before outlasting Washington in overtime in Game 4 and wrapping things up in enemy territory three days later. The schedule might have taken its toll on the Bullets, who needed seven games to win both of their earlier playoff series.

While sharps wager on Warriors, public bets pull for Cavaliers in NBA Finals: Live From Las Vegas
Early sharp money jumped on the Warriors odds to win the NBA Finals, but public money is siding with LeBron and the Cavs, keeping ticket count very close. We talk NBA Finals betting and Game 1 odds with Jeff Stoneback of The Mirage sportsbook in Las Vegas.

1983 NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers

1982 result: Lakers win in six games
1983 result: 76ers win in four games

The league-best 76ers gleefully exacted their revenge on a stacked Lakers team that had rolled past them a year earlier, sweeping the purple and gold en route to their third championship. That Moses Malone-led Philadelphia team crushed the opposition in the playoffs, running a 12-1 record while averaging better than 110 points per game in the four-game rout of Los Angeles. It was the first time in NBA history that a finals rematch resulted in a sweep.

1985 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers

1984 result: Celtics win in seven games
1985 result: Lakers win in six games

The Lakers were on the good end of an NBA Finals rematch this time around, bouncing back from a heart-breaking seven-game finals defeat a year earlier to prevail in one of the most entertaining and high-scoring championship series in league history. The teams combined to average 114.5 points per game in the Finals, with the winning team averaging nearly 122 points per victory. It marked the first time in history the Lakers had beaten the Celtics to win the title.

1989 NBA Finals: Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Lakers

1988 result: Lakers win in seven games
1989 result: Pistons win in four games

After squandering a 3-2 series lead against the Lakers in the 1988 Finals - and losing the final two games by combined four points - the “Bad Boy” Pistons weren't about to make the same mistake in the rematch. Detroit scored between 105 and 110 points in all four games, capturing the first two at home before capping the sweep with a pair of victories in L.A. The sweep capped an incredible run for the Pistons, who went 15-2 in the postseason. The Lakers were 11-0 entering the Finals.

In a NBA Championship loaded with star power, who will win NBA Finals MVP?
There's a surplus of star power on the court when the Cavaliers and Warriors mix it up in the NBA Finals. That means plenty of potential betting value when it comes to NBA Finals MVP odds. We look at the faves and live long shots on the board.

1998 NBA Finals: Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz

1997 result: Bulls win in six games
1998 result: Bulls win in six games

A handful of teams challenged the Bulls in the NBA Finals, but the Jazz were the only opponents to do so in consecutive seasons. And both times, the Hall of Fame tandem of John Stockton and Karl Malone came up just short in defeating the Michael Jordan-led Bulls. The 1998 title series was one of the lowest-scoring Finals in the modern era: Only twice did a team exceed 90 points, while the Jazz here held to a laughable 54 points in a Game 3 blowout loss. Every single game finished Under the total, with the deciding Game 6 boasting a low number of 177.5 points. The Bulls also covered in four of six games, including all three in Utah.

2014 NBA Finals: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

2013 result: Heat win in seven games
2014 result: Spurs win in five games

San Antonio didn't take kindly to suffering the first finals defeat in franchise history a year earlier, putting together a 62-win regular season before defeating Dallas, Portland and Oklahoma City in their first three playoff rounds en route to a hotly anticipated finals rematch. The Spurs then proceeded to crush the defending champions, boasting the highest average point differential (+14) in the history of the Finals. All four of their victories were by 15 or more points. San Antonio finished 4-1 ATS while making quick work of “The Big Three”.

2016 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

2015 result: Warriors win in six games
2016 result: Cavaliers win in seven games

After seeing LeBron James carry Cleveland to a pair of finals victories almost completely by himself in 2015, Cavaliers fans had to be pleased with seeing a much healthier version of their team head into a championship rematch with the Warriors. But things didn't start out so well, as Golden State jumped out to a... well, I'm sure you know what that series lead was. Cleveland became the first team to rally from 3-1 down to win a NBA Finals, and was the first team since 1978 to win a finals Game 7 away from home. The Cavs covered in four of the seven games and were +175 underdogs to win the series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball bettors need to know these refs are blowing the whistles in the NBA Finals

Referee John Goble posted the ninth-lowest O/U rate of any official to work 30 or more games this season, and his scoring average also sat in the bottom quadrant.

The NBA has named the 12 referees that will officiate the 2017 NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers that gets underway Thursday night in California.

Here are some regular-season statistical betting nuggets associated with each official (ATS records listed are for home team):

Tony Brothers

ATS record: 37-32-2
O/U record: 36-35
Points per game: 211.9

Brothers was pretty much down the middle in both ATS and O/U trends during the regular season, and has a similar track record in the playoffs. Home teams are 5-5 with Brothers on the floor during the postseason.

Mike Callahan

ATS record: 31-39-3
O/U record: 39-34
Points per game: 209.5

Home teams covered at a lower-than-average rate with Callahan toting the whistle. That has been even more pronounced during the postseason, with the host side winning just 40 percent of the games in which Callahan has worked as a main official with a scoring differential of -1.7 points per game.

James Capers

ATS record: 42-30-0
O/U record: 40-32
Points per game: 211.9

The Warriors will be thrilled to see Capers on the floor for the majority of the season, as his games provided a significant advantage to home-side ATS bettors. Road teams have earned 52.4 percent of the foul calls with Capers on the floor in the playoffs.

Danny Crawford

ATS record: 32-40-0
O/U record: 39-32
Points per game: 209.9

Like Callahan, Crawford has been less kind to the home team, a trend that has continued in the playoffs. Of the eight games he has worked as a main official, the home team has won just two of them and is carrying a -4 points per game differential to date.
In a NBA Championship loaded with star power, who will win NBA Finals MVP?
There's a surplus of star power on the court when the Cavaliers and Warriors mix it up in the NBA Finals. That means plenty of potential betting value when it comes to NBA Finals MVP odds. We look at the faves and live long shots on the board.

Marc Davis

ATS record: 25-49-1
O/U record: 40-33
Points per game: 213.45

Two things were apparent when Davis was on assignment this season: The home team almost certainly didn't cover, and fans were treated to high-scoring games. Strangely, however, the trend has reversed in the playoffs, with home teams winning Davis-worked games at a 70-percent clip while drawing just 46.9 percent of the foul calls.

Scott Foster

ATS record: 38-41-1
O/U record: 41-39
Points per game: 213.62

Foster comes closest to the breakeven point of any official working the NBA Finals, with no discernible ATS or O/U betting edge either way. Not surprisingly, home teams are 5-6 in his games so far in the postseason.

John Goble

ATS record: 39-39-1
O/U record: 34-42
Points per game: 207.61

Goble posted the ninth-lowest O/U rate of any official to work 30 or more games this season, and his scoring average also sat in the bottom quadrant. Teams are averaging a pedestrian 204.6 points in the nine playoff games he has worked.

Ed Malloy

ATS record: 38-28-1
O/U record: 36-29
Points per game: 212.52

Malloy was the eighth-friendliest referee to the home side - at least from an ATS perspective - during the regular season, with host teams enjoying a +4.37 point differential in his games. Teams are averaging better than 215 points in his playoff assignments.

While sharps wager on Warriors, public bets pull for Cavaliers in NBA Finals: Live From Las Vegas
Early sharp money jumped on the Warriors odds to win the NBA Finals, but public money is siding with LeBron and the Cavs, keeping ticket count very close. We talk NBA Finals betting and Game 1 odds with Jeff Stoneback of The Mirage sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Ken Mauer

ATS record: 33-38-1
O/U record: 35-36
Points per game: 212.26

Home teams didn't see much of a boost with Mauer in the fold, and that has been equally true so far in the postseason; they're just 3-5 S-U with him on the court, with an ugly -5.1 point differential in those eight games.

Monty McCutchen

ATS record: 39-36-1
O/U record: 36-40
Points per game: 213.00

McCutchen has been letting them play in seven games as a main official, calling just 37.9 fouls per game; home teams are 5-2 in those contests. In five games as part of another official's crew, nearly 48 foul calls per contest are being made.

Derrick Stafford

ATS record: 31-39-2
O/U record: 40-31
Points per game: 209.64

It might seem surprising given his regular-season ATS track record, but Stafford has been a home team's dream so far in the playoffs. The host side is a combined 8-1 SU in the nine games he has worked either as a main official or as part of a crew.

Zach Zarba

ATS record: 30-40-1
O/U record: 34-37
Points per game: 212.44

No official working the NBA Finals has been harder on host-team infractions than Zarba, who is calling 52 percent of his fouls in the postseason on the home side. That hasn't affected the home-team win rate, which sits at 70 percent through Zarba's 10 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Favorites dominate Game 1 of the NBA Finals, betting underdogs bite back in Game 2

The NBA Playoffs have been about as predictable as an episode of Scooby-Doo, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors meeting in the finals for the third straight year. And it would seem betting the NBA Finals is just as easy to foresee, given the ATS results for Games 1 and 2 over the past 26 years of postseason basketball.

Heading into Thursday’s championship series opener, the favorite is 17-9 ATS in Game 1 since 1991 (65 percent) – including red-hot runs of 14-4 ATS since 1999 (78 percent) and 11-1 ATS since 2005 (92 percent).

The Warriors, who are 7-point home chalk for Game 1 Thursday, have covered in each of the last two Game 1 meetings with the Cavs in the NBA Finals: winning 108-100 as 6-point Game 1 favorites in 2015 and 104-89 as 6-point Game 1 favorites in 2016.

NBA Finals Game 1 favorites have given their opponents an average of -6.25 points per game since 1991, which is pretty much on par with the Warriors’ Game 1 line. Those faves have edged their finals foes by an average score of 97-88.8 in that 26-year stretch, covering by 1.95 points per game.

The predictability doesn’t stop with Game 1. The second installment of the NBA Finals series has seen that above Game 1 betting trend flipped on its ear, with underdogs bouncing back with a stronger performance in Game 2. That’s left Game 2 favorites to go just 9-16-1 ATS (36 percent) the previous 26 postseasons, including a 2-7 ATS mark since 2008.

While spreads haven’t varied too much between Games 1 and 2 - -6 in Game 2 since 1991 – favorites are only winning by an average score of 98.11-92.92, an edge of just 5.19 points per game. Shrinking that down over the past nine postseasons, that final score tightens to 98.67-95.11 with an average spread of -5.39. Perhaps even more shocking is the fact the underdog has won Game 2 outright a dozen times in the past 26 seasons.

Now, the Warriors did manage to cover the 6.5-point spread in Game 2 versus the Cavaliers last season, winning a 110-77 rout, but fell ATS in Game 2 of the 2015 finals, losing 95-93 to LeBron James & Co. as 7.5-point home chalk. Game 2 of the 2017 NBA Finals is scheduled for Sunday, June 4.

As for Games 3 and 4, which we know will happen regardless of results, betting favorites are 10-14-1 ATS (with one pick’em in 2004 finals) and 12-12-1 ATS in Game 4 (with one pick’em in 2004 finals). As you can see, these trends start to balance out as the series goes on.

Looking past the given four games, Game 5 chalk is 11-11 ATS since 1991 postseason, Game 6 faves are 6-10 ATS, and Game 7 favorites are 3-2 ATS in those deciding contests the past 26 seasons.

The 2017 Warriors and Cavaliers have been cash cows for basketball bettors riding them through the postseason. Cleveland enters the finals with an 8-4-1 ATS mark while Golden State is 8-4 ATS – a combined 67 percent win rate against the spread during the NBA Playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ten need-to-know basketball betting notes for the NBA Finals

Open up the beer fridge, pass the Pringles and turn up the “Roundball Rock”: the NBA Finals tipoff on Thursday when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers. Before you place your finals wagers, take a look at these 10 need-to-know betting notes:

• Twitter trolls are having all sorts of fun reminding the world that ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith is 0-6 in his last six NBA Finals predictions. NBA oddsmakers have done better, but not as well as you might guess. The series underdog is batting .500 in the last 10 Finals. The 2006 Heat, 2008 Celtics, 2011 Mavericks, 2012 Heat and 2016 Cavaliers all won despite wearing the dog tag.

• LeBron James-led teams are 18-5 straight up against Kevin Durant-led squads since KD entered the league in 2007. That includes the 2012 Finals when the two squared off and LeBron got the best of Durant in five games. As far as ATS, James’ sides are 15-8 ATS against Durant’s teams.

• There’s a reason the sweep always pays the best. There have been only eight sweeps in the 70-year history of the NBA Finals. That works out to an 11.4 percent chance. There have been 17 five-game series (24.4%), 25 six-gamers (35.7%) and 20 series that went to Game 7 (28.6%).

• James was the best player in five of the last six NBA Finals. Oddsmakers list him as the favorite for most points and assists in the series and have him as the third fave for most rebounds. He has four career finals MVP awards and the only other player in this series with one on his resume is Andre Igoudala – and his really should have been given to James. With all this said, James is still listed as the third favorite (+240) to win the finals MVP behind Durant (+200) and Stephen Curry (+210).

• If you like to play first-half bets, Golden State is probably your best option. The Warriors are the best first quarter team in the postseason in terms of net rating (+32.1 points per 100 possessions) and are +112 in point differential in first halves. The Cavs, on the other hand, are the best third quarter team in the playoffs with a +25.8 net rating. Cleveland has trailed in three games by double digits but came back to win each one.

• A lot has been written already about the Game 1 total but just a reminder: the number at 225.5 is the largest total in recorded betting history of the NBA Finals. It’s a 14.5-point jump from the Game 1 total in last year’s Finals. Golden State’s offense is in better shape with a healthy Curry and Durant taking Harrison Barnes’ spot. Cleveland’s offense is much improved compared to last year’s edition. All that being said, the increase in stakes, competition and rivalry should equal lower-scoring games. The Under is a combined 7-4-2 in the last two finals matchups between these two sides.

• The Game 1 spread (7 points) is the largest in the NBA Finals since 2007 when the LeBron-led Cavs were getting 7.5 points against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs won and covered in that game and swept the Cavs in the Finals.

• Heading into Thursday’s championship series opener, the favorite is 17-9 ATS in Game 1 since 1991 (65 percent) – including red-hot runs of 14-4 ATS since 1999 (78 percent) and 11-1 ATS since 2005 (92 percent). But Game 2 favorites are only 9-16-1 ATS (36 percent) the previous 26 postseasons, including a 2-7 ATS mark since 2008.

• Going back to the 1990-91 season, NBA Finals games have a 54-80-5 Over/Under record (59.7 percent Unders). And since 2000, the NBA Finals has pumped out a 36-48-5 O/U count (57 percent Unders). Focusing specifically on Game 1 of the NBA Finals over the past 26 years, the Under has been a profitable 9-15-1 O/U since 1991. That Game 1 trend is 3-9-1 O/U since the 2004 finals.

• Golden State was 25-5 SU versus Eastern Conference opponents this season, but just 14-14-2 ATS. The Warriors were a great Under bet in non-conference contests, with a 9-21 Over/Under mark. Cleveland stumbled against the Western Conference, with a 16-14 SU and 11-18-1 ATS mark, going 16-14 Over/Under in those games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, June 1


Cleveland @ Golden State

Game 701-702
June 1, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
127.934
Golden State
140.845
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 13
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-7); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 1

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CLEVELAND (63 - 32) at GOLDEN STATE (79 - 15) - 6/1/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 106-88 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 99-84 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 85-64 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-48 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-9 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-8 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
12 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday, June 1

Golden State is 12-0 in playoffs, Cleveland 12-1. Teams meet in NBA Finals for third straight year; Cavaliers rallied from down 3-1 LY to win title. Cleveland is 5-2 in last seven series games; they won two of last three games in Oakland, but lost 126-91 here in January. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Cleveland is 7-0 on road in playoffs; they led by 21 in only playoff game they’ve lost this spring. Over is 6-3 in last nine Cavalier games, Golden State covered five of its last six games; they’re 2-4 vs spread at home in playoffs. Warriors’ last five games all went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday, June 1

Trend Report

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games