US Election 2016: Trump card could secure victory over Clinton in game of demographics
Both likely major party nominees are viewed unfavourably by a majority of the electorate
With Hillary Clinton – barring an email-related bombshell from the FBI – now virtually certain to be the Democratic nominee, and Donald Trump heavy favourite to be her Republican opponent in November, both campaigns are now focusing on a vital aspect of the race: how to win the demographics game that decides US presidential elections. And in this remarkable 2016 cycle, some old certainties may no longer hold.
Her wins in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Illinois on Tuesday leave no doubt Mrs Clinton is in firm command of the key Democratic constituencies of blacks, Hispanics and women voters. That is likely to remain the case this autumn, if Mr Trump wins his party’s nomination. But she may be vulnerable elsewhere.
Once white working-class voters were a lynchpin of the Democratic coalition. That began to change in 1980 with the emergence of the “Reagan Democrats” – mostly blue-collar white Americans in the old industrial heartland upset by the liberal cultural policies of their traditional party. Since then, Democrats have never been able to win them back entirely. Now Mr Trump is making his own play for them.
The exact cross-over vote this primary season is impossible to quantify. But record turnouts in many Republican primaries this season – and the fact that Mr Trump tends to do better in “open” primaries, where a voter can choose either the Republican or Democratic ballot at the polling station itself – suggest that many white working-class Democrats are buying his argument: that the US is in big trouble, that immigration and free trade are destroying the national fabric, and that ordinary Democrats and Republicans alike have been duped and betrayed by the ruling elites in Washington.
Some analysts reckon five million or more white voters simply didn’t bother to turn out in 2012. Mitt Romney won 59 per cent of those that did; had he boosted that to 63 per cent, all other things being equal, he would have won. That plainly is Mr Trump’s calculation now – that an increase in turnout by whites (who still account for 63 per cent of the voting-age population) will nullify any surge in turnout by Hispanics put off by his tirades against immigrants and threats to build a wall along the southern US border. Hispanics (and Asians) in any case are less assiduous voters than whites and blacks.
In 2012, barely 40 per cent of Hispanics voted, compared to over 60 per cent of whites. With overall turnouts of 59 and 55 per cent in 2008 and 2012 respectively, there is plainly potential to expand the Republican vote, not least among people who have never voted before, but who attend Mr Trump’s giant rallies across the country.
In taking this approach moreover, Mr Trump would be flying in the face of the Republican National Committee’s official post mortem into Mr Romney’s defeat. To counter seemingly inexorable demographic trends, the party must increase its appeal to Hispanics, women and the middle class. In five of the past six presidential elections, the RNC noted, Republicans had lost the popular vote. But time and again, the property tycoon has overturned party orthodoxy. Why not once more?
Against this must be set a huge uncertainty. Some white working-class Democrats undoubtedly will go for Mr Trump. But how many normally Republican voters simply will not vote for him under any circumstances? For perhaps the first time ever, both likely major party nominees are viewed unfavourably by a majority of the electorate. But Mr Trump’s ratings are even worse than those of Ms Clinton – 63 per cent negative, according to Gallup, compared to “only” 53 per cent for Ms Clinton
Both likely major party nominees are viewed unfavourably by a majority of the electorate
- Rupert Cornwell Washington
- @IndyVoices
- Wednesday 16 March 2016
With Hillary Clinton – barring an email-related bombshell from the FBI – now virtually certain to be the Democratic nominee, and Donald Trump heavy favourite to be her Republican opponent in November, both campaigns are now focusing on a vital aspect of the race: how to win the demographics game that decides US presidential elections. And in this remarkable 2016 cycle, some old certainties may no longer hold.
Her wins in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Illinois on Tuesday leave no doubt Mrs Clinton is in firm command of the key Democratic constituencies of blacks, Hispanics and women voters. That is likely to remain the case this autumn, if Mr Trump wins his party’s nomination. But she may be vulnerable elsewhere.
Once white working-class voters were a lynchpin of the Democratic coalition. That began to change in 1980 with the emergence of the “Reagan Democrats” – mostly blue-collar white Americans in the old industrial heartland upset by the liberal cultural policies of their traditional party. Since then, Democrats have never been able to win them back entirely. Now Mr Trump is making his own play for them.
The exact cross-over vote this primary season is impossible to quantify. But record turnouts in many Republican primaries this season – and the fact that Mr Trump tends to do better in “open” primaries, where a voter can choose either the Republican or Democratic ballot at the polling station itself – suggest that many white working-class Democrats are buying his argument: that the US is in big trouble, that immigration and free trade are destroying the national fabric, and that ordinary Democrats and Republicans alike have been duped and betrayed by the ruling elites in Washington.
Some analysts reckon five million or more white voters simply didn’t bother to turn out in 2012. Mitt Romney won 59 per cent of those that did; had he boosted that to 63 per cent, all other things being equal, he would have won. That plainly is Mr Trump’s calculation now – that an increase in turnout by whites (who still account for 63 per cent of the voting-age population) will nullify any surge in turnout by Hispanics put off by his tirades against immigrants and threats to build a wall along the southern US border. Hispanics (and Asians) in any case are less assiduous voters than whites and blacks.
In 2012, barely 40 per cent of Hispanics voted, compared to over 60 per cent of whites. With overall turnouts of 59 and 55 per cent in 2008 and 2012 respectively, there is plainly potential to expand the Republican vote, not least among people who have never voted before, but who attend Mr Trump’s giant rallies across the country.
In taking this approach moreover, Mr Trump would be flying in the face of the Republican National Committee’s official post mortem into Mr Romney’s defeat. To counter seemingly inexorable demographic trends, the party must increase its appeal to Hispanics, women and the middle class. In five of the past six presidential elections, the RNC noted, Republicans had lost the popular vote. But time and again, the property tycoon has overturned party orthodoxy. Why not once more?
Against this must be set a huge uncertainty. Some white working-class Democrats undoubtedly will go for Mr Trump. But how many normally Republican voters simply will not vote for him under any circumstances? For perhaps the first time ever, both likely major party nominees are viewed unfavourably by a majority of the electorate. But Mr Trump’s ratings are even worse than those of Ms Clinton – 63 per cent negative, according to Gallup, compared to “only” 53 per cent for Ms Clinton
Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president
If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.
'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump
'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election
- Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee
- He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent
- Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960
- If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders
If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.
'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump
'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election
He tried to come off as Mr. Clean saying he has no control over that Super Pac which no one believes. He poked the bear and got mauled.
The Granny tried the same thing early on and Trump dragged Slick Willie thru the mud and you haven’t heard a peep out her since.
Trump doesn’t play by The Marquess of Queensberry rules.
Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination
Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee, with 48 percent of Republicans now supporting him.
+3
Donald Trump received a three-point polling boost this weeks as he gets closer and closer to hitting the 50 percent support mark
Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee. A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll that dropped this morning shows that 48 percent of Republicans are now supporting the frontrunner – a record high for this survey – with 27 percent standing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 18 percent selecting Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
All three candidates saw a slight boost in support, likely coming from previously undecided Republican voters and those who were once supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio before he dropped out on March 15.
- SHARE PICTURE
+3
Donald Trump received a three-point polling boost this weeks as he gets closer and closer to hitting the 50 percent support mark
Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee. A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll that dropped this morning shows that 48 percent of Republicans are now supporting the frontrunner – a record high for this survey – with 27 percent standing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 18 percent selecting Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
All three candidates saw a slight boost in support, likely coming from previously undecided Republican voters and those who were once supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio before he dropped out on March 15.
Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination
Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee, with 48 percent of Republicans now supporting him.
- SHARE PICTURE
+3
Donald Trump received a three-point polling boost this weeks as he gets closer and closer to hitting the 50 percent support mark
Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee. A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll that dropped this morning shows that 48 percent of Republicans are now supporting the frontrunner – a record high for this survey – with 27 percent standing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 18 percent selecting Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
All three candidates saw a slight boost in support, likely coming from previously undecided Republican voters and those who were once supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio before he dropped out on March 15.
Ummmmmm.....this doesn't help his general election numbers. Nice try though!
April 03, 2016, 10:37 amKasich predicts open convention: 'It’s going to be so much fun'
By Rebecca Savransky
"I believe that a convention will look at somebody like me, and that’s why I think I’m going to be the nominee," the Ohio governor said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.
Kasich said he expects to continue gaining momentum and picking up delegates until the convention.Kasich then touted his poll numbers in head-to-head match-ups against Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton, saying he beats Clinton in "virtually every poll."
"I'm the only one that does it on the Republican side," he said.
He also talked about his record on job growth, adding he has international foreign policy knowledge and the experience to be a competitive candidate.
"We just have to keep going, and we’re going to have an open convention," Kasich said.
"It’s going to be so much fun. Kids will spend less time focusing on Bieber and Kardashian and more time focusing on how we elect presidents. It will be so cool."
Kasich said he thinks convention delegates will start to "feel the real weight" in choosing who the Republican nominee will be.
"They begin to realize that they are going to be held accountable, and they are going to be responsible for making sure we pick somebody who can be commander in chief, leader of the free world, and can beat Hillary Clinton in the fall," Kasich said.
"And I’m the only one that consistently does it."
By Rebecca Savransky
Getty Images
Republican presidential candidate John Kasich said he thinks he has a good chance at a contested convention this summer."I believe that a convention will look at somebody like me, and that’s why I think I’m going to be the nominee," the Ohio governor said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.
Kasich said he expects to continue gaining momentum and picking up delegates until the convention.Kasich then touted his poll numbers in head-to-head match-ups against Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton, saying he beats Clinton in "virtually every poll."
"I'm the only one that does it on the Republican side," he said.
He also talked about his record on job growth, adding he has international foreign policy knowledge and the experience to be a competitive candidate.
"We just have to keep going, and we’re going to have an open convention," Kasich said.
"It’s going to be so much fun. Kids will spend less time focusing on Bieber and Kardashian and more time focusing on how we elect presidents. It will be so cool."
Kasich said he thinks convention delegates will start to "feel the real weight" in choosing who the Republican nominee will be.
"They begin to realize that they are going to be held accountable, and they are going to be responsible for making sure we pick somebody who can be commander in chief, leader of the free world, and can beat Hillary Clinton in the fall," Kasich said.
"And I’m the only one that consistently does it."
April 03, 2016, 10:37 amKasich predicts open convention: 'It’s going to be so much fun'
By Rebecca Savransky
Getty ImagesRepublican presidential candidate John Kasich said he thinks he has a good chance at a contested convention this summer.
"I believe that a convention will look at somebody like me, and that’s why I think I’m going to be the nominee," the Ohio governor said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.
Kasich said he expects to continue gaining momentum and picking up delegates until the convention.Kasich then touted his poll numbers in head-to-head match-ups against Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton, saying he beats Clinton in "virtually every poll."
"I'm the only one that does it on the Republican side," he said.
He also talked about his record on job growth, adding he has international foreign policy knowledge and the experience to be a competitive candidate.
"We just have to keep going, and we’re going to have an open convention," Kasich said.
"It’s going to be so much fun. Kids will spend less time focusing on Bieber and Kardashian and more time focusing on how we elect presidents. It will be so cool."
Kasich said he thinks convention delegates will start to "feel the real weight" in choosing who the Republican nominee will be.
"They begin to realize that they are going to be held accountable, and they are going to be responsible for making sure we pick somebody who can be commander in chief, leader of the free world, and can beat Hillary Clinton in the fall," Kasich said.
"And I’m the only one that consistently does it."
It will be fun, because Trump will be the nominee. Kasich has NO CHANCE. He is as delusional as porky Guesser. Keep eating that pork sandwich you buffoon.
| Republican Presidential Nominee - Republican National Convention | |||||||
| Mon 7/18 | 901 Donald Trump is Republican Nominee | -105 | |||||
| 8:00AM | 902 Field wins Republican Nomination | -115 | |||||
| Mon 7/18 | 903 Ted Cruz is Republican Nominee | +200 | |||||
| 8:00AM | 904 Field wins Republican Nomination | -280 | |||||
| Mon 7/18 | 905 John Kasich is Republican Nominee | +615 | |||||
| 8:00AM | 906 Field wins Republican Nomination | -930 | |||||
| Mon 7/18 | 907 Paul Ryan is Republican Nominee | +1300 | |||||
| 8:00AM | 908 Field wins Republican Nomination | -3000 |
| Wisconsin Primary - Republican Winner | |||||||
| Tue 4/5 | 401 Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin Primary | -945 | |||||
| 6:00AM | 402 Field wins Wisconsin Primary | +515 |
A vote for Kasich is a vote for a contested convention. Period.
[h=2]GOP frontrunner Donald Trump says he thinks he will still reach the 1,237 delegate threshold to become the Republican nominee, even if he loses the GOP Wisconsin primary on Tuesday.[/h]“I think I can because the polls just came out in New York where they really know me best,” Trump told Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren during a town hall in Milwaukee on Sunday night.
Trump said his polls in New York are “through the roof.”
New York voters will cast their votes on April 19th.
[h=2]GOP frontrunner Donald Trump says he thinks he will still reach the 1,237 delegate threshold to become the Republican nominee, even if he loses the GOP Wisconsin primary on Tuesday.[/h]“I think I can because the polls just came out in New York where they really know me best,” Trump told Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren during a town hall in Milwaukee on Sunday night.
Trump said his polls in New York are “through the roof.”
New York voters will cast their votes on April 19th.
Tuesday 5 April 2016
: All 42 of Wisconsin's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Wisconsin Presidential Primary.
Primary
: All 42 of Wisconsin's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Wisconsin Presidential Primary.
- 24 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 8 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 5.]
- 18 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 5 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 6.]
| Contest | ||
| Pop Vote | Del | |
| CD1 | 3 | |
| CD2 | 3 | |
| CD3 | 3 | |
| CD4 | 3 | |
| CD5 | 3 | |
| CD6 | 3 | |
| CD7 | 3 | |
| CD8 | 3 | |
| Statewide | 18 | |
| Total Delegates | 42 |
Primary
The beat goes on. Kasich gets nothing when the wingnuts vote, but when normal, sane Americans will vote, Kasich wins.
04/06/16 10:06 AM EDT
John Kasich picked up the endorsement of former CIA and NSA Director Michael Hayden on Wednesday, who lauded the Ohio governor as the only candidate qualified to be commander in chief.
“Governor John Kasich, who served 18 years on the House Armed Services Committee, is the one candidate in the entire field with the best experience, expertise and leadership skills required to be Commander-in-Chief,” the retired four-star general said in a statement released by Kasich's campaign. “Governor Kasich has serious proposals to strengthen our military, defeat ISIS and stand up for freedom around the world—proposals that rise far above bumper-stickers and amateur rhetoric.”
[h=3]John Kasich's major endorsements[/h]By POLITICO STAFF
Hayden's endorsement of Kasich comes as little surprise, given his past compliments of the governor on both policy and rhetoric compared to both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
"He is a very serious man, and he got good marks when he was on the committees. He did his homework," Hayden remarked of the governor last month.
Hayden has also taken issue with Donald Trump's proposals to reinstate enhanced interrogation techniques such as waterboarding and Ted Cruz's assertion that he would "carpet-bomb ISIS into oblivion."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...cia-endorses-john-kasich-221629#ixzz454jLOz94
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