This is what a sane(and Nationally Electable) Republican Sounds Like

Search

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump

beer-cheers-toasting.jpg
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention

POLITICO Caucus members say the Ohio governor would be more acceptable to GOP delegates than Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
By STEVEN SHEPARD
03/18/16 05:09 AM EDT
90


In the event of a contested Republican convention this summer, John Kasich is the candidate most acceptable to GOP delegates.
That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of political insiders in seven battleground states – who said Kasich would be the most palatable of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a contested convention, despite the fact the Ohio governor is last in delegates and the only one mathematically eliminated from clinching a majority before the July convention.

The verdict was hardly unanimous: Only a 45-percent plurality of GOP insiders said Kasich was most acceptable, with the others divided between Ted Cruz (33 percent) and Donald Trump (22 percent).


But insiders said Kasich has alienated fewer Republicans, and his campaign – he has thus far declined to participate in the personal back-and-forth that has defined much of the Republican race – has left him better positioned to court delegates who are supporting, or bound to, other candidates.
“John is the only candidate that is left on the stage that has crossover appeal to all factions of the party,” added a New Hampshire Republican. “The way he has conducted himself in this election has offered him the opportunity to be an acceptable choice for the delegates. Everyone else will be carrying deep battle scars into Cleveland. John will be able to bring different factions together where others can't.”


2016
Ryan huddles with anti-Trump donors

By ISAAC ARNSDORF , KENNETH P. VOGEL and JAKE SHERMAN

“John Kasich has worked hard not to alienate the other candidates and their supporters by remaining fairly positive during the primary portion of the campaign,” said a Virginia Republican, who like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “I think there is a better chance of the most conservative Republicans accepting Kasich than there is of the more moderate candidates accepting either Trump or Cruz.”
Others pointed to Kasich’s electability in the fall and insisted GOP delegates would pick a candidate who can win.
"Kasich appeals to a larger cross-section of Americans, making him the better general election candidate," said a Florida Republican. "Obviously, his high positives in Ohio also play a part of his political acceptability for Republicans, many of whom want a presidential win at almost any cost."
But Kasich’s appeal on the convention floor might have more to do with the nature of the delegate pool than with Kasich himself.

“Delegates tend to come from the donor class/establishment wing of the GOP,” an Iowa Republican pointed out in choosing Kasich, adding that most delegates are “older party regulars.”
Some insiders disagreed – arguing Cruz is the more viable anti-Trump candidate because he’s more acceptable to conservatives.
One Iowa Republican said Cruz’s team was working diligently to get friendly delegates appointed in the states, which would give him an edge after some delegates become unbound after the first ballot.
“Cruz has established a nationwide ground game and is working to pack delegate halls as we speak,” said an Iowa Republican. “Kasich doesn't have the infrastructure, and Trump is hoping for momentum, numbers and sheer force to gain the nomination. The Cruz people aren't budging. Grab the popcorn.”
Cruz “has earned the right to be the guy if it comes down to a brokered convention,” added a North Carolina Republican. “He's played everywhere, not just in in one or three sandboxes of his choosing. Kasich hasn't.”
And a New Hampshire Republican pointed out that Cruz would likely play better with Trump supporters – who would balk if Trump came to Cleveland with a plurality of the delegates but was thwarted on the convention floor.
“While Kasich would be the preference of the Establishment,” the New Hampshire Republican said, “Cruz is the one person who could leave the Trump delegates not completely irate.”
As for Trump, the roughly one-in-five insiders who said he’d be the most acceptable were comprised of a mix of insiders who thought Trump was on pace to secure, if not a majority of delegates, than close to it – and those who think Trump is the best of a number of bad options for the GOP.
“He has won fair and square,” said a North Carolina Republican. “During the process he has demonstrated how he will turn Hillary into chopped liver.”
“The appealing thing about Trump is that throughout the primary process he has shown that we can turn out voters in urban and rural areas,” added an Iowa Republican. “He has broad appeal despite the loud vocal minority of Republicans that fund him unacceptable.”

A number of GOP insiders also warned of the risks of not giving Trump the nomination if we wins the most delegates.
“If Trump has more delegates than anyone else and has won the most states, the GOP would be incite a grassroots revolt if somebody else was nominated,” a New Hampshire Republican said, adding, “And I'm not a Trump lover!”
Democrats aren’t demanding that Bernie Sanders end his campaign, but that time could be coming soon.
Asked whether it is time for Sanders to exit the race after losing five states on Tuesday, 59 percent of Democratic insiders – on the whole, a pro-Clinton group – said yes, while the other 41 percent said Sanders should continue.
But the Sanders-should-stay-in contingent was split between those who believe he should continue to advance his issues and build his profile – and those who think he should be preparing a dignified exit.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/john-kasich-contested-convention-insiders-220946#ixzz43LfKXdSC
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention

POLITICO Caucus members say the Ohio governor would be more acceptable to GOP delegates than Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
By STEVEN SHEPARD
03/18/16 05:09 AM EDT
90

In the event of a contested Republican convention this summer, John Kasich is the candidate most acceptable to GOP delegates.
That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of political insiders in seven battleground states – who said Kasich would be the most palatable of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a contested convention, despite the fact the Ohio governor is last in delegates and the only one mathematically eliminated from clinching a majority before the July convention.

The verdict was hardly unanimous: Only a 45-percent plurality of GOP insiders said Kasich was most acceptable, with the others divided between Ted Cruz (33 percent) and Donald Trump (22 percent).


But insiders said Kasich has alienated fewer Republicans, and his campaign – he has thus far declined to participate in the personal back-and-forth that has defined much of the Republican race – has left him better positioned to court delegates who are supporting, or bound to, other candidates.
“John is the only candidate that is left on the stage that has crossover appeal to all factions of the party,” added a New Hampshire Republican. “The way he has conducted himself in this election has offered him the opportunity to be an acceptable choice for the delegates. Everyone else will be carrying deep battle scars into Cleveland. John will be able to bring different factions together where others can't.”


2016
Ryan huddles with anti-Trump donors

By ISAAC ARNSDORF , KENNETH P. VOGEL and JAKE SHERMAN

“John Kasich has worked hard not to alienate the other candidates and their supporters by remaining fairly positive during the primary portion of the campaign,” said a Virginia Republican, who like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “I think there is a better chance of the most conservative Republicans accepting Kasich than there is of the more moderate candidates accepting either Trump or Cruz.”
Others pointed to Kasich’s electability in the fall and insisted GOP delegates would pick a candidate who can win.
"Kasich appeals to a larger cross-section of Americans, making him the better general election candidate," said a Florida Republican. "Obviously, his high positives in Ohio also play a part of his political acceptability for Republicans, many of whom want a presidential win at almost any cost."
But Kasich’s appeal on the convention floor might have more to do with the nature of the delegate pool than with Kasich himself.

“Delegates tend to come from the donor class/establishment wing of the GOP,” an Iowa Republican pointed out in choosing Kasich, adding that most delegates are “older party regulars.”
Some insiders disagreed – arguing Cruz is the more viable anti-Trump candidate because he’s more acceptable to conservatives.
One Iowa Republican said Cruz’s team was working diligently to get friendly delegates appointed in the states, which would give him an edge after some delegates become unbound after the first ballot.
“Cruz has established a nationwide ground game and is working to pack delegate halls as we speak,” said an Iowa Republican. “Kasich doesn't have the infrastructure, and Trump is hoping for momentum, numbers and sheer force to gain the nomination. The Cruz people aren't budging. Grab the popcorn.”
Cruz “has earned the right to be the guy if it comes down to a brokered convention,” added a North Carolina Republican. “He's played everywhere, not just in in one or three sandboxes of his choosing. Kasich hasn't.”
And a New Hampshire Republican pointed out that Cruz would likely play better with Trump supporters – who would balk if Trump came to Cleveland with a plurality of the delegates but was thwarted on the convention floor.
“While Kasich would be the preference of the Establishment,” the New Hampshire Republican said, “Cruz is the one person who could leave the Trump delegates not completely irate.”
As for Trump, the roughly one-in-five insiders who said he’d be the most acceptable were comprised of a mix of insiders who thought Trump was on pace to secure, if not a majority of delegates, than close to it – and those who think Trump is the best of a number of bad options for the GOP.
“He has won fair and square,” said a North Carolina Republican. “During the process he has demonstrated how he will turn Hillary into chopped liver.”
“The appealing thing about Trump is that throughout the primary process he has shown that we can turn out voters in urban and rural areas,” added an Iowa Republican. “He has broad appeal despite the loud vocal minority of Republicans that fund him unacceptable.”

A number of GOP insiders also warned of the risks of not giving Trump the nomination if we wins the most delegates.
“If Trump has more delegates than anyone else and has won the most states, the GOP would be incite a grassroots revolt if somebody else was nominated,” a New Hampshire Republican said, adding, “And I'm not a Trump lover!”
Democrats aren’t demanding that Bernie Sanders end his campaign, but that time could be coming soon.
Asked whether it is time for Sanders to exit the race after losing five states on Tuesday, 59 percent of Democratic insiders – on the whole, a pro-Clinton group – said yes, while the other 41 percent said Sanders should continue.
But the Sanders-should-stay-in contingent was split between those who believe he should continue to advance his issues and build his profile – and those who think he should be preparing a dignified exit.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/john-kasich-contested-convention-insiders-220946#ixzz43LfKXdSC
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook



You need a brain boy.

Trump will be the nominee, get used to that fact, your bullshitting postings will not prevent his nomination.

Get psychotherapy for your Trump anxiety.

Kasich has no chance of the nomination, and he knows it.

If he has any desire of office it will be VP to Trump. A Trump/ Kasich ticket is his only hope. It would be a winning ticket certainty, Kasich would ensure Ohio a Republican victory in the Presidential election and that would help carry the Trump Presidency.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
No one will stop the Trump train rolling along, you roll with it or you get rolled over, those are the options.
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
You need a brain boy.

Trump will be the nominee, get used to that fact, your bullshitting postings will not prevent his nomination.

Get psychotherapy for your Trump anxiety.

Kasich has no chance of the nomination, and he knows it.

If he has any desire of office it will be VP to Trump. A Trump/ Kasich ticket is his only hope. It would be a winning ticket certainty, Kasich would ensure Ohio a Republican victory in the Presidential election and that would help carry the Trump Presidency.
You idiotic, moronic sick Brit Twit. I'm not writing these articles. There are experts and Bookmakers that know FAR more about US Politics than your idiotic Brit mind, that think he has a realistic, albeit longshot chance, to be the nominee. Since he's BY FAR the most viable R in a General election, there's a chance they come to their senses when the convention is contested.
220px-Ministry_of_Silly_Walks.jpg
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
You idiotic, moronic sick Brit Twit. I'm not writing these articles. There are experts and Bookmakers that know FAR more about US Politics than your idiotic Brit mind, that think he has a realistic, albeit longshot chance, to be the nominee. Since he's BY FAR the most viable R in a General election, there's a chance they come to their senses when the convention is contested.
220px-Ministry_of_Silly_Walks.jpg


Get a brain boy, your words " Since he's BY FAR the most viable R in a General election"


Fortunately millions know more than you that Trump is the best R, and they cast their vote .
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
Get a brain boy, your words " Since he's BY FAR the most viable R in a General election"


Fortunately millions know more than you that Trump is the best R, and they cast their vote .
Idiotic, Moronic, Sick Brit Twit. Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average2/11 - 3/6----47.341.0Clinton +6.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl3/3 - 3/61200 RV2.85138Clinton +13
ABC News/Wash Post3/3 - 3/6864 RV4.05041Clinton +9
Rasmussen Reports2/29 - 3/11000 LV3.04136Clinton +5
CNN/ORC2/24 - 2/27920 RV3.05244Clinton +8
FOX News2/15 - 2/171031 RV3.04742Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk2/11 - 2/151000 LV3.04345Trump +2

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton




658 Shares
Trump vs. Clinton | Cruz vs. Clinton | Rubio vs. Clinton | Bush vs. Clinton | More Head-to-Heads

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEKasich (R)Clinton (D)Spread
RCP Average2/10 - 2/17----47.740.3Kasich +7.4
FOX News2/15 - 2/171031 RV3.04744Kasich +3
Quinnipiac2/10 - 2/151342 RV2.74739Kasich +8
USA Today/Suffolk2/11 - 2/151000 LV3.04938Kasich +11

All General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton Polling Data
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president




  • Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee







  • He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent







  • Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960







  • If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders

If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.




'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'





318508B200000578-3463915-image-a-3_1456412690747.jpg




The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump


'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '






Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election

 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
The Beat goes on. In Poll after poll. The Base GOP voters are too stupid to take advantage of it.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average3/16 - 3/22----50.439.0Clinton +11.4
FOX News3/20 - 3/221016 RV3.04938Clinton +11
Bloomberg3/19 - 3/22815 LV3.45436Clinton +18
Quinnipiac3/16 - 3/211451 RV2.64640Clinton +6
CBS News/NY Times3/17 - 3/201058 RV4.05040Clinton +10
CNN/ORC3/17 - 3/20925 RV3.05341Clinton +12
Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Cruz (R)Spread
RCP Average3/16 - 3/22----47.044.6Clinton +2.4
FOX News3/20 - 3/221016 RV3.04447Cruz +3
Bloomberg3/19 - 3/22815 LV3.45142Clinton +9
Quinnipiac3/16 - 3/211451 RV2.64542Clinton +3
CBS News/NY Times3/17 - 3/201058 RV4.04744Clinton +3
CNN/ORC3/17 - 3/20925 RV3.04848Tie
Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEKasich (R)Clinton (D)Spread
RCP Average3/16 - 3/22----48.642.0Kasich +6.6
FOX News3/20 - 3/221016 RV3.05140Kasich +11
Bloomberg3/19 - 3/22815 LV3.44743Kasich +4
Quinnipiac3/16 - 3/211451 RV2.64739Kasich +8
CBS News/NY Times3/17 - 3/201058 RV4.04743Kasich +4
CNN/ORC3/17 - 3/20925 RV3.05145Kasich +6

 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
I am the only one who can beat Hillary Clinton. I am not a Mitt Romney, who doesn't know how to win. Hillary wants no part of "Trump"

 

Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2010
Messages
9,660
Tokens

Are those the same polls that basically gave him 0 chance when he entered the race? Just saying he has made the pollsters look stupid thus far.
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
Are those the same polls that basically gave him 0 chance when he entered the race? Just saying he has made the pollsters look stupid thus far.
These are CURRENT Numbers with CURRENT Information. Trump jumped to the lead in GOP polls almost immediately after he declared, as I predicted he would. The Pollsters had it right. Did I think he'd still be there at this point? No. People's opinions were wrong. But the numbers basically had him leading the GOP since he declared, and they've been right.
 

Rx Normal
Joined
Oct 23, 2013
Messages
52,666
Tokens
#NeverKasich

Kasich’s finish on Western Tuesday would have been enough to embarrass any lesser mortal out of the race.

There is no excuse for Kasich, who knows a thing or two about elections, not realizing this. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that he is still in the race only because he is less realistic and, sadly, less honorable than the candidates who have dropped out before him.

John, spare us your sanctimony and your unifying patter. Take a cold-eyed look at reality, and do what’s best for your party and your cause. No hugs necessary.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/neverkasich-213762#ixzz43rkjha00
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
 

New member
Joined
Jan 16, 2013
Messages
2,625
Tokens
#NeverKasich

Kasich’s finish on Western Tuesday would have been enough to embarrass any lesser mortal out of the race.

There is no excuse for Kasich, who knows a thing or two about elections, not realizing this. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that he is still in the race only because he is less realistic and, sadly, less honorable than the candidates who have dropped out before him.

John, spare us your sanctimony and your unifying patter. Take a cold-eyed look at reality, and do what’s best for your party and your cause. No hugs necessary.

could
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/neverkasich-213762#ixzz43rkjha00
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

Guess likes Kasich because Kasich said it's very possible that he could name a
Democrat as his VP.
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
Guess likes Kasich because Kasich said it's very possible that he could name a
Democrat as his VP.
Nope, I like Kasich because he's sane, unlike the other remaining R candidates. He's also the one who would beat Hillary, while keeping the Country running somewhat well, as he's not an anti Government loon, or a nut with insane, fascist, anti American ideas.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2010
Messages
9,660
Tokens
These are CURRENT Numbers with CURRENT Information. Trump jumped to the lead in GOP polls almost immediately after he declared, as I predicted he would. The Pollsters had it right. Did I think he'd still be there at this point? No. People's opinions were wrong. But the numbers basically had him leading the GOP since he declared, and they've been right.

They are polls, which in Trumps case have been wrong. Every talking head on TV have admitted that they were wrong underestimating him. I am not a huge fan of Trump, because of his attitude mainly, but I do believe he will surround himself with the best people for decision making. As a right leaning moderate, he is the only electable canidate...if he would just shut is mouth at times. He is not an expert on policy, but I am not so sure that a President needs to be. They just need to put the right people in place and get involved on things that the American people want....for the good of the country....economically and security.

I for one would not count him down and out. He probably is the first R canidate since RR to get the moderate vote. The question will be if he can get the far right support. We know the far left is all Clinton. Dont be suprised to see him scoop up all the independents like Obama did. Let the far right and left fight over the crumbs.
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
They are polls, which in Trumps case have been wrong. Every talking head on TV have admitted that they were wrong underestimating him. I am not a huge fan of Trump, because of his attitude mainly, but I do believe he will surround himself with the best people for decision making. As a right leaning moderate, he is the only electable canidate...if he would just shut is mouth at times. He is not an expert on policy, but I am not so sure that a President needs to be. They just need to put the right people in place and get involved on things that the American people want....for the good of the country....economically and security.

I for one would not count him down and out. He probably is the first R canidate since RR to get the moderate vote. The question will be if he can get the far right support. We know the far left is all Clinton. Dont be suprised to see him scoop up all the independents like Obama did. Let the far right and left fight over the crumbs.
The Polls have been right about Drumpf. It's people that have been wrong, not numbers. That's why I'll stick to the numbers. I agree he's a wildcard that is capable of changing his numbers, in either direction, drastically, so I don't under estimate him. But right now the numbers tell a strong story.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2010
Messages
9,660
Tokens
I guess time will tell.....the thing with Trump if he can tone it down just a notch, his numbers will continue to grow. I do know his message is what middle America wants to hear and believe....its mainly the actions of the messenger that makes many peoples dislike him. Can that change
....who knows

I will say the wife fight between him and Teddy is good. Ted provoked it, the Trump fired back with skeletons....now the media is trying to use it against him. This never would have been brought up, but Teddy boy decided to poke the fire....and he got burned. I think we will see a lot of this with Hillary as well. He can attack her on record, but add another layer of what many people dont see. Should be interesting and great entertainment to normally status quo politics. I am sure she isnt looking forward to it. If she wins, she will be brought through the ringer for it. I dont think Trump gives a shit about his past, and he normally defends his decisions right or wrong.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,121,024
Messages
13,590,229
Members
101,044
Latest member
danielbroughton
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com