This bowl system went 11-1 last season ...

[sdf]

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs



I think this system went 7-3 last year based on these plays (you would have played on the team on the left). 7-1 if you ignore the huge double digit chalk

Miami (58) vs. Louisville (107)
Pitt (6) vs. Bowling Green (123)
Utah St (82) vs. NIU (113)
Oregon St (12) vs. Boise St (93)
Tx A&M (29) vs. Duke (62)
Baylor (60) vs. UCF (92)
USC (14) vs. Fresno (111)
Vandy (53) vs. Houston (78)
UNC (52) vs. Cincy (120)
Auburn (20) vs. Florida St (63)



the plays this year appear to be fading:

Michigan St
Nebraska
Boise
LaTech
Memphis
Duke
Colorado St
Cincy
PennSt
UCF

i used Sagarin ratings from here

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

i'm sure someone can double check my work.

 

[bank--it]

Thanks. Excellent work. I remember this post

 

[sendacash]

Would BYU and Memphis cancel each other out with this system? Both are in the top 60 and both have SOS below 60, although Memphis SOS(123) < BYU (71). Hard to believe Memphis SOS is so bad with them playing both UCLA and Ole Miss out of conference, but I guess they really feasted on the dregs of the AAC this year? Here's another listing with just SOS, it appears to be pretty much the same as Sagarin's:

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings-CFB-Teams

 

[sdf]

Would BYU and Memphis cancel each other out with this system? Both are in the top 60 and both have SOS below 60, although Memphis SOS(123) < BYU (71). Hard to believe Memphis SOS is so bad with them playing both UCLA and Ole Miss out of conference, but I guess they really feasted on the dregs of the AAC this year? Here's another listing with just SOS, it appears to be pretty much the same as Sagarin's:

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings-CFB-Teams

I believe the answer is, play the team with the higher SOS. Note last year:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

Utah St (82) vs. NIU (113)


41 Utah State A = 76.15 9 5 65.89( 74)
59 Northern Illinois A = 71.86 12 2 59.89( 116)

the ratings just above are a little different since they included bowl games.

as well we played on Baylor over UCF even though both were in the top 60

Baylor (60) vs. UCF (92)

9 Baylor A = 89.28 11 2 71.61( 48)
25 Central Florida(UCF) A = 82.02 12 1 64.96( 79)

again, the team SOS improved for both teams as they played someone in their bowl game in the top tier....

 

[BigdaddyQH]

If I read this right, here are the teams that I placed a small wager on just to see how successful this system is:

USC (29) over Nebraska (61)
Arizona (28) over Boise State (73)
Utah (26) over Colorado State (94)
BYU (71) over Memphis (123)
N.C. State (65) over UCF (115)
Va. Tech (49) over Cincinnati (93)
Arizona State (35) over Duke (81)
Boston College (57) over Penn State (62)
Baylor (56) over Michigan State (60)

Let's see how these teams do.

 

[phantom888]

What about LA TECH?

 

[Addicted2quack]

This is really intriguing but I wouldn't make any plays without checking first for injuries and coaching changes. Those two factors mean a lot when it comes to bowl games. Personally I like the idea and concept but I wouldn't take BYU over memphis .... They just arent the same team since taysom hill went down... Just my observation tho, interested to see how it works out

 

[sdf]

What about LA TECH?

they are on my list. perhaps not on BDQH. maybe just forgot about that one

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Illinois is not a Top 60 ranked team. If they were, they would be the pick.

 

[GoSooners]

This is really intriguing but I wouldn't make any plays without checking first for injuries and coaching changes. Those two factors mean a lot when it comes to bowl games. Personally I like the idea and concept but I wouldn't take BYU over memphis .... They just arent the same team since taysom hill went down... Just my observation tho, interested to see how it works out

Agree about injuries. Baylor was pretty banged up last year at the end of the season and going into their bowl game. Plus you have to weigh the coaching head to head matchup..

 

[phantom888]

Illinois is not a Top 60 ranked team. If they were, they would be the pick.

So BOTH teams have to be Top 60, not just one.

 

[sendacash]

So BOTH teams have to be Top 60, not just one.

I don't think both teams have to be in the top 60 unless I misunderstood, probably just hard to pull the trigger on the Illini lol. Seems to be a big difference between the Sagarin SOS rating for UCF (115) versus the Prediction Machine ranking of 68. They did play Penn St., Mizzou, and BYU out of conference.

 

[phantom888]

since this is a Sagarin SOS system, then PM doesnt come into play.

Now, if there's a Prediction Machine system, then there's a discussion.

either way, just use this as one of the tools in your belt and find your winners!

 

[NoCoke]

This piqued my interest, so I went back and filled in the missing years (2009-2012). Assuming I did this correctly (someone may want to pick a year and double check my work), this thing is money.

I wasn't sure how much the rankings change each week, so I included teams 58 and 59 in "fade". These teams went 0-7 ATS. One team played a lower ranked team and lost ATS. So if you followed this system and included these teams you'd be 6-1 ATS.

07-08: 11-1 (per OP)
08-09: 12-5 (per this thread)
09-10: 9-3. Note - 6 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 4-2.
10-11: 12-1. Note - 2 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 2-0 ATS. The 1 loss was from fading a 10 win Miami OH team.
11-12: 12-2. Note - 4 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 3-1.
12-13: 14-3. Note - 3 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 2-1.
13-14: 7-3 (per sdf)

Total: 75-18

Yeah, this may be worth a look.

 

[NoCoke]

..

 

[NoCoke]

This piqued my interest, so I went back and filled in the missing years (2009-2012). Assuming I did this correctly (someone may want to pick a year and double check my work), this thing is money.

I wasn't sure how much the rankings change each week, so I included teams 58 and 59 in "fade". These teams went 0-7 ATS. One team played a lower ranked team and lost ATS. So if you followed this system and included these teams you'd be 6-1 ATS.

07-08: 11-1 (per OP)
08-09: 12-5 (per this thread)
09-10: 9-3. Note - 6 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 4-2.
10-11: 12-1. Note - 2 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 2-0 ATS. The 1 loss was from fading a 10 win Miami OH team.
11-12: 12-2. Note - 4 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 3-1.
12-13: 14-3. Note - 3 teams ranked below 60 played lower ranked teams and went 2-1.
13-14: 7-3 (per sdf)

Total: 75-18

Yeah, this may be worth a look.

Ignore this I misread and wasted an hour of my life.

 

[NoCoke]

Although what I accidentally did may be worth a look. I faded teams ranked below 60, unless a team ranked below 60 played a team ranked lower than them. This went 47-9?!

 

[dtmad]

Would BYU and Memphis cancel each other out with this system? Both are in the top 60 and both have SOS below 60, although Memphis SOS(123) < BYU (71). Hard to believe Memphis SOS is so bad with them playing both UCLA and Ole Miss out of conference, but I guess they really feasted on the dregs of the AAC this year? Here's another listing with just SOS, it appears to be pretty much the same as Sagarin's:

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings-CFB-Teams

Reading the rule carefully, I believe it is a no play.

 

[dtmad]

I will talk more when I'm more coherent, but for now, as it was stated back in the early posts of this thread (2008), Sagarin ratings used for this system are at the end of the regular season, so wait until after the Army/Navy game to do your research.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I did not wager the mortgage on these games. Just what I consider a very small amount. Let's see how it goes.