The Square Play of the Day!

[ck013]

Friday 06/06/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Julio Teheran (R) (5-3) 1.83 ERA vs. Brandon McCarthy (R) (1-7) 5.20 ERA

Last night we thought we had it in the bag after a grand slam from the Twins, but unfortunately their pitching couldn’t get it done and our three game winning streak was snapped. Today looks to be an interesting matchup and probably not a popular one. The Atlanta Braves send out 23 year old Julio Teheran, to take on the Diamondbacks’ 30 year old Brandon McCarthy.

On the surface Teheran looks great, a 5-3 record and a 1.83 ERA. Although Teheran has been dominant, his FIP is actually 3.68, a run differential of -1.85 (almost two runs worse). His xFIP projects him at 3.86, that’s over two more runs that his ERA. His BaBIP is currently a very low .215 and his LOB% is a very high 87.5%; bad combination. McCarthy on the other hand looks a little rough around the edges with a 1-7 record, and a 5.20 ERA. His FIP however is 3.88, making a +1.32 run differential and his xFIP projects him at 2.87 which is over two runs better than his ERA. His BaBIP is a little high at .327 and his LOB% is a very low 62.5%; these are positive numbers.

McCarthy has been hurt by the homerun this year with a HR/FB% of 20.8%, however he has been mindful and has produced a good amount of ground balls with a GB% of 54.8%. Chase Field in Arizona is ranked 6th in the league in homeruns according to ESPN Park Factors, and although Teheran has a much lower HR/FB ratio of 8.9%, he is a flyball pitcher with a GB% of 39%. The Braves are hitting .257 against righties over their last five, averaging 4.36 runs per nine innings. The Dbacks are averaging .319 and 6.68 runs per nine innings their last five versus righties.

Teheran’s stock is very high at the moment, his last three starts have been solid and his ERA is under two. McCarthy’s stock is extremely low with an ERA above five, and his last start against Cincinnati was bad to say the least only going 4.1 innings; giving up nine hits and five runs all earned. Teheran is not in a good spot with his projections and trends, and a flyball pitcher against a hot hitting team in a homerun hitting ballpark while going against a groundball pitcher is not a good mix.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Diamondbacks +106

 

[ck013]

Saturday 06/07/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Alfredo Simon (R) (7-3) 3.03 ERA vs. Roberto Hernandez (R) (2-3) 4.03 ERA

Today’s Square Play of the Day comes at no easy feat, but we have a decent looking game, in game two of the Phillies visiting the Reds. Alfredo Simon takes the hill against the Roberto Hernandez after the Phillies touched up Johnny Cueto in yesterday’s game one. Today we try to stop the losing, and we try to gain ground.

Alfredo Simon rolls into today’s contest with a 7-3 record and a 3.03 ERA. His opponent, Robert Hernandez who is holding a 2-3 record and a 4.03 ERA. Alfredo Simon has an xFIP of 4.56, over a run and a half higher than his ERA and his xFIP projects him at 4.28 (still over a run higher than his ERA). Robert Herdandez has also has a higher run differential in his FIP which is at 4.45 and an xFIP of 4.19, but this levels the field a little more. Simon’s BaBIP average is very low at .235, compared to Herdandez’s .297. Simon’s LOB% is a very high 83.1% compared to Herndadez’s 76.6%.

Where we see another difference is in the GB percentage. Simon has as a HR/FB ratio of 12.2%, Hernandez 12.5%, very close. Simon’s GB% percentage however is 46.4% making him a flyball pitcher, compared to Hernandez’s 51.9%. Great American Ball Park has a HR rating of 1.751 according to ESPN Park Factor’s, the second most in the league behind Yankee Stadium.

We saw Cueto go down last night, as we have been saying he was due for it, we see the same for Simon in this spot. It’s not necessarily that Hernandez is the better pitcher, but we believe this is a good spot for him in this matchup. We are trying to avoid a three game losing streak, and we have a live dog here.

The Square Play of the Day, the Phillies +130

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/05/2014 - Twins - 1 to win 1.10 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/06/2014 - Diamondbacks -1 to win 1.06 - LOSS
3rd Game, 06/07/2014- Phillies -1 to win 1.30 - LOSS


New Updated Record 15-13, Units +1.91 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[ck013]

Sunday 06/08/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Jaime Garcia (R) (1-0) 5.47 ERA vs. Drew Hutchison (R) (4-3) 3.50 ERA

Today we try to break out of our three game losing streak, and we do with an early Sunday game. Game three between the Cardinals visiting the Blue Jays. Left handed Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Cards to combat the Blue Jays’ 23 year old right handed, Drew Hutchison. Game three, the rubber matchup and our attempt to break the three game skid.

Jaime Garcia has a 1-0 record in four starts with a 5.47 ERA, and he is coming off of his worst start of the season against Kansas City going five innings and giving up six earned, earning his worst GSc (pitcher’s game score) yet a 30. Although it’s a small sample size, Jaime’s LOB% leaves plenty of room for improvement at 57.9%, his FIP is 4.17 (over a run better than his ERA), and his xFIP projects him at 2.60. Drew Hutchison holds a 4-3 record with a 3.50 ERA and is coming off of one his best performances of the season, going seven innings giving up three hits and no earned runs. He earned his second highest GSc of the season with a score of 78. Hutchison’s FIP is 3.64 slightly higher than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 3.80. Hutchison has had twelve starts this season and has a BaBIP of .276 and his LOB% is 77.5% leaving room for error.

Hutchinson has only had four starts at home this season despite having twelve starts. Over these four games Drew is 1-2 and his ERA is 7.72. Meanwhile, Jaime’s only win so far this season has been in his only road start. The Blue Jays are hitting .125 against lefties over their last five games, while the Cards are hitting .244 against righties their last five. Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada, is rated third in home runs, partially due to the Blue Jays leading the league in homeruns with 89. Hutchison has a GB% of 36.5% making him a dangerous liability in this ballpark.

Jaime Garcia’s stock is low at the moment and his xFIP is impressive even if it is only through four. Hutchison’s stock is high at the moment coming off a great performance but he is yet to prove he can be successful at home. Although the Blue Jays have hit lefties well, they have struggled mightily against lefties recently.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals +125

 

[ck013]

Monday 06/09/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Stephen Strasburg (R) (5-4) 3.10 ERA vs. Ryan Vogelsong (R) (4-2) 3.39 ERA

Late night game tonight after winning an early game yesterday. Today’s game has a 10:00PM (EST) start in San Francisco as the Giants host the Washington Nationals. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for the Nats to take on the Giant’s Ryan Vogelsong. Game one of this a four game series starts tonight and it is our Square Play of the Day.

Strasburg comes into tonight’s contest with a 5-4 record and a 3.10 ERA. Strasburg’s FIP is better than his ERA at 2.82 and his xFIP projects him better than his ERA as well at 2.46. His BaBIP is very high at .358 considering his low FIP, and his LOB% is right around where it should be at 69.7%. Vogelsong holds a 4-2 record and a 3.39 ERA. His FIP is 3.87 which is higher than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 4.02, even higher than his FIP. Vogelsong’s BaBIP is right around where it should be at .297, but his LOB% is very vulnerable at 80.5%.

Strasburg is 2-0 against the Giants with a 1.89 ERA, while Vogelsong is 1-1 with an 8.73 ERA against the Nats. Although we are all aware of the Giant bats and what they are capable of, averaging .317 against righties their last five, but the Nats have found their bats on this road trip thus far averaging 5.20 runs per nine innings (last five against righties). Out of 60 total at bats the Giant players are only hitting .233 against Strasburg. Out of 56 at bats the National players are hitting .339 against Vogelsong.

This matchup has lost some value as the Nationals opened up at only -115 and are now -125. The Giants are the best team in the league but this spot is good for Strasburg who has been very good this season despite misfortunes, while we’ve seen Vogelsong has had more balls bounce his way, but has not been as solid of a pitcher based on the FIP and the other stats we mentioned. Both pitchers are flyball pitchers the Giants hit 69 home runs this year, the Nationals have 59, but according to ESPN’s Park Factors AT&T Park is 29th in the league in homeruns, only above Nationals Park which is rated 30th. We are basing this contest off of the starting pitching matchup, give me Strasburg.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -125

 

[Grindstone30]

Always love your writes great insight GL love the Nationals myself tonight

 

[evome]

thank you cheersgif

 

[ck013]

Tuesday 06/10/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Josh Beckett (R) (3-3) 2.57 ERA vs. Mike Leake (R) (3-5) 3.29 ERA

Today we try for another three game winning streak after cashing in on the Nats last night in a big way with a 9-2 victory. Today’s matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers visiting the Cincinnati Reds for game two of their four game series. Right handed Josh Beckett gets the start today going up against fellow righty Mike Leake.

We will start with Leake who has a 3-5 record with a 3.29 ERA. He has an FIP slightly higher at 3.75 and his xFIP is also slightly higher at 3.40. Leake’s BaBIP is a little low at .271, but his LOB% is right around where it should be at 75.5%. Josh Becket holds a 3-3 record with a 2.57 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher (almost two runs higher) at 4.31, and his xFIP also has him over a run higher at 3.59. Beckett’s BaBIP is pretty low at .240, and his LOB% is extremely high at 88.9% through his 11 starts.

Great American Ball Park is second in the league in homeruns according to ESPN Park Factors. Although the Dodgers have more homeruns with 62 to the Reds’ 53, Leake has a GB% of 57.1% compared to Beckett’s 45.5%. Leake has a high HR/FB ratio of 14%, but again his home ballpark is second in the league in homeruns. Beckett’s home field is 9th in homeruns, but his HR/FB ratio is actually higher at 16.1%. Leake is coming off of his worst start of the year against the Giants earning a 36 GSc (pitcher’s game score). The public believes Josh Beckett is a completely revived man after throwing his no hitter earlier this season.

After a win the Dodgers are 13-20 and Beckett against the Reds, although he hasn’t faced them since 2008, holds a 1-2 record with 7.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.571. Leake against the Dodgers is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and a WHIP 1.156. We look for Leake to come out strong after his worst performance of the season. We also look for Beckett to start to give up base runners, and runs due to his numbers. Beckett’s stock is high, and Leake’s is very low, I would have liked to have seen the Reds as dogs but if the books don’t want to make them bigger dogs there must be a reason.

Note: The Reds are averaging only .209 against righties their last five, but are still averaging 4.56 runs per nine innings against righties over their last five.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Reds - 105

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/08/2014 - Cardinals - 1 to win 1.25 - WIN
2nd Game, 06/09/2014 - Nationals -1.25 to win 1 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/10/2014- Reds -1.05 to win 1 - LOSS


New Updated Record 17-14, Units +3.11 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[ck013]

Wednesday 06/11/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Julio Teheran (R) (6-3) 1.89 ERA vs. Tyler Matzek (R) (0-0) 0.00 ERA

Ugly loss yesterday but today we try to make up for it. Last night the Braves and the Rockies put up a football score that saw Atlanta winning 13-10 after putting up a seven spot in the first inning. Today we look at game two as Julio Teheran goes up for the Braves against Tyler Matzek, a lefty making his MLB debut. Tonight’s game is taking place at Coors Field in Colorado, first in runs and fourth in homeruns.

Julio is 6-3 on the year with an impressive 1.89 ERA. Julio’s FIP is over a run higher at 3.66 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.86. His BaBIP is very low at .215 and his LOB% is very high at 87.5%, we have been waiting for this bubble to burst. Julio is a definite flyball pitcher with a GB% of 38.9%, any flyball pitcher in a park like Coor’s field is dangerous.

Although the Braves did put up 13 runs last night, they also gave up ten; the Braves are 0-1 this season after giving up ten runs, 1-8 over the last three years. We won’t ignore that Teheran has been terrific against the Rockies going 3-0 lifetime with an ERA of 1.00, including a shutout earlier this season in Atlanta. One of those starts were in Colorado last year. What the Braves need to be concerned with is the fact that they are hitting .213 against lefties over their last ten averaging only 2.13 runs per nine innings. If we break it down to their last five against lefties, they are averaging only .195. We compare this to their stats against righties over their last five, .296 averaging 6.50.

The Rockies are playing horrible as of late there’s no question but the Rockies are home where they are comfortable with high scores. They put up 10 runs in a comeback effort and fell short but for them scoring 10 was a nice jolt for their struggling offense. Although Teheran has been great, I do not feel comfortable taking a flyball pitcher in a homerun ballpark with a team backing him that is struggling against left handed pitching. This game could be a lot more level than it seems, especially with that big stat bubble around Teheran, I would rather have the home dog in this matchup.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Rockies +130

 

[ck013]

Thursday 06/12/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Max Scherzer (R) (7-2) 3.38 ERA vs. Chris Sale (L) (5-0) 2.06 ERA

Today’s Square Play of the Day is in Chicago as the Tigers and White Sox finish up their series with game three. 2013 American League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer takes the mound against 25 year old White Sox sensation, lefty, Chris Sale. The Tigers look to avoid a sweep from the White Sox after a 6-5 loss in game one, and an 8-2 loss last night in game two.

Max Scherzer is no stranger to MLB fans across the country after his impressive 2013 season. This year after starting out strong, Scherzer has hit a serious rough patch over his last four games giving up at least 8 hits and 4 runs over that stretch. His record so far this season is 7-2 with a 3.38 ERA. Scherzer’s FIP is currently 3.11 and his xFIP puts him at 3.26, both numbers we see are lower than his ERA. His BaBIP is a little high at .330 and his LOB% is a little high at 79.7%. His opponent Chris Sale holds an impressive 2.06 ERA and 5-0 record over eight starts this season. Sale’s FIP is 2.19 and his xFIP is 2.56 although they are higher than his ERA, still impressive. Sale’s LOB% is right where it should be at 72.3%, where we are concerned is it appears Sale has been fortunate with a BaBIP average of only .193.

The Tigers are 11-7 this year against lefties after losing to John Danks last night. Over their previous five versus lefties they are averaging .367 with a 7.24 runs per nine innings average. The White Sox are hitting righties well over their last five averaging a batting average of .304 and a runs per nine inning average of 6.83. Scherzer is 10-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 2.57 ERA, Sale is 3-4 lifetime against the Tigers with a 3.14 ERA.

While I will agree the White Sox have been playing good ball and the Tigers have not, I do believe the Tigers will want this game more (avoiding the sweep). As far as value, I understand the why Sale is favored since he has been playing well and Scherzer has not, but Sale was a dog in his last three games against the Tigers while Scherzer was a favorite of no less than -165 in his last three against the White Sox. If we combine that with a dangerously low BaBIP for Sale of .193 and the way Tigers usually hit lefties, we see the value with Scherzer as a dog here in what is a truly square play.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Tigers +110

 

[ck013]

Friday 06/13/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Jordan Zimmerman @ Lance Lynn
Jordan Zimmerman (R) (5-2) 3.17 ERA vs. Lance Lynn (R) (6-4) 3.49 ERA

Tonight our Square Play of the Day comes from St. Louis, Missouri as the Washington Nationals pay a visit to the Cardinals. The Nationals are in the midst of a ten game road trip that they finish with three games here in St. Louis. The Cardinals had the day off after returning home from a seven game road trip of their own, and Jordan Zimmerman takes the hill for the Nats to combat the Cardinal’s Lance Lynn.

Jordan Zimmerman is coming off his best performance possibly of his career throwing a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, two hits and 0 runs against the San Diego Padres earning an incredible 95 GSc (pitcher’s game score). Zimmerman holds a 5-2 record and a 3.17 ERA. His FIP is 2.87 and his xFIP, 3.23. His BaBIP is actually high at .332, and his LOB% is right where it should be at 73.6%, he is having a great season and has earned it. We compare him to Lance Lynn who is 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA. Lynn’s FIP is 3.62 and his xFIP puts him at 3.96 as we see him trotting into his true form. His BaBIP is right where it should be at .306 and his LOB% is as well at 75.3%.

Although this spot would appear like good one for Zimmerman, he is coming off two games where he threw over 100 pitches; 114 in his last start, 102 in the previous start. This was his first time all season throwing over 100 pitches back to back and his two highest game scores of the season. We have to figure to see the Nat bullpen have a role in this game, a bullpen who has been solid but is coming off of a game where they gave up five runs late to the Giants. Again the Nationals have played seven road games, they haven’t had a day off since June 2nd. The Cardinals just had a day off after returning home from their road trip and should be rejuvenated.

The Nationals you have to figure to be fatigued, and have had a great road trip already thus far. They knew to step up their game against the team with best record in baseball; now playing a team historically good but are currently desperate for answers. The Cardinals finished their road trip strong and after a much needed day off we expect them to want to get ahead in this series at home. We have seen fatigue play a huge factor in good teams starting to lose so far this season, the Nats gave us a preview of it yesterday not being able to take the lead after trailing 2-1 most of the game, despite getting runners on.

Note: Zimmerman 0-5 against St. Louis with a 7.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.547. Lynn is 2-0 against Nationals with a 4.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.364.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals - 105

 

[indiana]

CK/013...........good luck with your play today........like the play..............indy

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/11/2014 - Rockies - 1 to win 1.30 - WIN
2nd Game, 06/12/2014 - Tigers -1 to win 1.10 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/13/2014- Cardinals -1.05 to win 1 - WIN


New Updated Record 20-14, Units +6.51 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[Grindstone30]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/11/2014 - Rockies - 1 to win 1.30 - WIN
2nd Game, 06/12/2014 - Tigers -1 to win 1.10 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/13/2014- Cardinals -1.05 to win 1 - WIN


New Updated Record 20-14, Units +6.51 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

Good job keep picking those winners buddy

 

[ck013]

Sunday 06/14/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Stephen Strasburg @ Shelby Miller
Stephen Strasburg (R) (6-4) 2.99 ERA vs. Shelby Miller (R) (7-5) 3.59 ERA

Today we look to make it four in a row after a 1-0 win in St. Louis last night as the Cardinals beat Washington. Last night’s game was the difference of one big hit, a home run from Matt Adams. Today we have Stephen Strasburg taking the hill for the Nats in game two, to combat the Cardinal’s Shelby Miller. We stick with this series for today’s Sunday edition of the Square Play of the Day.

Stephen Strasburg has been solid in his recent starts. This season his record is 6-4 and he has a solid 2.99 ERA. His FIP is even lower at 2.29 and his xFIP is also lower than his ERA at 2.39. His BaBIP is very high a .354 showing us he has not been lucky, he has been solid and his LOB% is 69.9%, slightly low. Shelby Miller holds a 7-5 record with a 3.59 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher at 4.78 and his xFIP is also over a run higher at 4.63. Shelby’s BaBIP is low at .254, and his LOB% is very high at 80%; seems as though Shelby has been pretty fortunate.

While Strasburg’s last three games were solid with over a 60 GSc (pitcher’s game score) in each, he has also been more consistent this year and seems to be in a grove. Shelby is coming off of his best start of the season throwing a complete game, three hit, shut-out against the Toronto Blue Jays. His GSc was 85, however he has been very inconsistent this year and unlike Strasburg who seems to be in a rhythm, Miller is erratic and may be in a let-down spot situation.

We can’t ignore that Strasburg has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 4.25 of the road through six games. Miller has actually been better on the road than at home, his home ERA is 4.17 through six home starts. We also can’t ignore that the Nationals as 2-8 on Saturdays, the Cardinals are 7-3 on Saturdays. What we are playing on today is the response, meaning the Nationals are 3-1 after being shut-out, the Cards are 4-9 after shutting out their opponent. The Cardinal bats didn’t really wake up and although we played the Nats being tired, they have had the night to settle and rest for their next two games and we are going with the square bet today.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -130

 

[ck013]

In the first paragraph I made an error, I said Sunday edition meant to say Saturday edition, just clearing it up to avoid confusion.

 

[ck013]

Sunday 06/15/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Leake (R) (3-6) 3.61 ERA vs. Marco Estrada (R) (5-3) 4.56 ERA

The Nationals just couldn’t get it going yesterday as we had our three game winning streak snapped. We will try to get a win on today’s Father’s Day edition of the Square Play of the Day. Cincinnati finishes their three game series against Milwaukee, as Mike Leake of the Reds, take on Marco Estrada of the Brewers. Reds and Brewers rubber game of the series.

Mike Leake holds a 3-6 record with a 3.61 ERA. His FIP stands at 3.59 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.32. Leake’s BaBIP is a tad low at .288 and his LOB% is right where it should be at 72.8%. Marco Estrada is 5-3 with a 4.56 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 5.68 but his xFIP has him at 4.19. His BaBIP is very low at .238 and his LOB% is very high at 81.4%, a dangerous combination.

One advantage Leake has is that he is a groundball pitcher, his GB% is 56.9%. Estrada has a GB% of 36.5% making him a flyball pitcher. Both pitchers have played horribly over their last three starts, and both pitchers will be looking to improve today. Both teams are 7-3 on Sundays, and are both coming off bad starts.

We will look for Leake to take some control over this game. His underlying numbers are much better and he looks to be in a better place. Marco Estrada has been playing bad, but his numbers suggest that he is not done playing bad yet. Brandon Phillips is 7 for 21 against Estrada and today we look for the Reds to take the series today.

The Square Play of the Day, the Reds +110

 

[ck013]

Monday 06/16/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
Jered Weaver (R) (7-5) 3.51 ERA vs. Trevor Bauer (R) (1-3) 4.24 ERA

The Reds gave us a spectacular offensive performance, giving us the win in a big way yesterday. Today we follow up with the Angels visiting the Cleveland Indians for game one of their four game series in Cleveland. Jered Weaver takes the mound for the Angels to take on 23 year old Trevor Bauer and the Tribe.

Jered Weaver comes into today with a 7-5 record and a 3.51 ERA. His FIP is almost a run higher than his ERA at 4.31 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.37. Jered’s LOB% is a little high at 77.9% and his BaBIP is low at .254, not a good combination through 14 starts. Trevor Bauer, through six starts, is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA. Although it’s a much smaller sample size, Trevor’s FIP is 4.03 which isn’t great but actually better than Weaver’s, and his xFIP predicts him at 3.64. His LOB% is right around where it should be at 74.4% and his BaBIP is right around where it should be at .315.

After dropping two of their three games to the Braves in Atlanta, the Angel bullpen comes limping into Cleveland. In game two we watched their bullpen collapse blowing a four run lead in the bottom of the 9th inning in a 13 inning win. Sunday Night Baseball, we watched the bullpen surrender three more runs allowing Atlanta to run away with lead. Cleveland returns home after a 10 game road trip ending with a split of a four game series against the Boston Red Sox. After going 5-5 in what the MLB considers a successful road trip, the Indians are happy to come home to their 21-11 home record. Although Cleveland is only hitting .222 against righties their last five, they were on the road their last ten. While the Angels are hitting better their last five with a .254, their bullpen ERA over their last five is currently 4.63, a major concern.

Weaver’s road ERA is almost a half-run higher than his season ERA, Bauer’s home ERA is 2.50 much better than his 4.24 season ERA. We are not saying that Bauer is a better pitcher than Weaver by any stretch, but we like this particular matchup in this situation. We also believe that the initial perception of Weaver versus Bauer at -120 will lead to the public lean on the Angels, giving us some value with the home dog Indians.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Indians +106

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/14/2014 - Nationals - 1.30 to win 1 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/15/2014 - Reds -1 to win 1.10 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/16/2014- Indians -1 to win 1.06 - WIN


New Updated Record 22-15, Units +7.37 (all games are for one unit unless specified).