The Square Play of the Day!

[ck013]

Thursday 05/22/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Mark Buehrle (L) (7-1) 2.11 ERA vs. Jon Lester (L) (4-5) 2.67 ERA

Today we try to bounce back after a very strange game from start to finish, and we do it with a truly “square” play. The Toronto Blue Jays have stunned the Boston Red Sox in Boston by taking the first two out of three games. Now in an attempt for the sweep, the Jays will send out Mark Buehrle, who is off to an outstanding start, to face off with Boston’s Jon Lester.

Lefty Mark Buehrle has a 7-1 record with a 2.11 ERA, and is undefeated in the month of May. His opponent, Boston Lefty Jon Lester, who holds a 4-5 record, with a 2.67 ERA. Buehrle would appear to have a slight advantage in the starting pitching except; Mark’s FIP is 3.13, a -1.02 run differential. Lester’s FIP is actually 2.11, a +0.56 run differential which switches the slight edge to Boston. Mark’s BaBIP is .294 right around where it should be, and Lester’s is .322 leaving room for improvement.

Although Toronto has been putting up big time runs against Boston these last two games, they are averaging .195 out of 302 at-bats against Lester. Boston, who have been putting up runs as well, are hitting .315 out of 337 at-bats against Buehrle. Over the last five games the Sox are hitting .289 against lefties (much better than their .194 average against righties). Toronto is only hitting .237 against lefties over their last five.

Should the Red Sox get into the bullpen, the Jays pen ERA is 7.31 over its last five games. Meanwhile if Boston’s pen gets involved, their pen has a 1.86 ERA over their last five. Based off of the power ratings we have Boston at -136, and that’s without adding another .25 cents for avoiding the sweep. Although this game may seem expensive for a struggling Boston team, we think for the given situation this is a discount.

Square Play of the Day, Red Sox -130

 

[ck013]

Another tough loss, will bounce back.

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/22/2014 - Red Sox - 1.30 to win 1.00 - LOSS


New Updated Record 7-5, Units +1.65 (all games are for one unit).

 

[ck013]

Friday 05/23/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Shelby Miller (R) (6-2) 2.79 ERA vs. Homer Bailey (R) (3-3) 5.44 ERA

After two bad losses, the Square Play of the Day plans to bounce back into form. Today’s contest, a great rivalry, the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Cincinnati Reds in game one of a three game series. We have two righties going at it tonight; 23 year old Shelby Miller boasting a 6-2 record and a flashy 2.79 ERA, takes on Homer Bailey who’s managing a 3-3 record with a 5.44 ERA. This line opened -120 at some books, with the Cardinals favored in most books. The line this afternoon on game-day now has the Red’s favored, but why?

The Cardinals just swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in three games, and did a great job on their nine game homestand. Although they did score runs, their pitching is what really helped deliver their wins. Now we look at Shelby Miller who has an FIP/ERA differential of -2.54 runs and a BaBIP average of .259, which helps mask his flashy 2.79 ERA. It’s safe to say Miller has gotten his fair share of help. When we look at Bailey, we see he has been on the opposite end of the spectrum with a +0.78 (almost a full run better) run differential and a horrid .353 BaBIP average to spike his ERA.

The Cardinals come into this game with high spirits after their successful homestand, the Reds had the day off to prepare solely for this game. The Reds know that if they want to compete with the Cards this season they have to win their games at home, the Cards are 12-14 on the road (opposed to 14-7 at home). This game will be more important to the Reds, knowing they have Wainwright waiting for them in game three. If they want to have a chance at winning this series it starts today against a 23 year old going into only his second full season with a lot of hype and a high stock.

Homer Bailey is only 2-6 in his last eight against the Cardinals. He is coming off of his worst performance of the season in a 12-1 loss to the Phillies. Right now his stock is very low, but he remember he is a veteran at 28 years old and has been in the league since 2007. Bailey would love nothing better than to turn around his season starting with a big win for his team in a game one win at home. Getting Cincinnati as a home dog would have been tremendous value but based off preparation and motivation, but I still believe the Reds up to -110 still holds value. Today we roll the dice with the buy-low, sell-high mentality.

Today’s Square Play of the Day – The Cincinnati Reds - 110

 

[d3nv3r]

nice write ups

on the Cards just because I have way more confidence on Miller then Homer, but this looks like a close game anyway.

was thinking of taking the under also, looks like a 3-2 type of game.

 

[Danny_Boy]

good luck sir!!!

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/23/2014 - Reds - 1.10 to win 1.00 - WIN


New Updated Record 8-5, Units +2.65 (all games are for one unit).

 

[RussellPeters]

Nice job on the Reds! Good luck on Saturday!

 

[ECC]

Aren't 'SQUARE' Plays the plays you would want to shy away from? If these are your personal plays maybe title it something different. Seems like you are doing decent on the plays, but from my understanding a square play would be something most would fade IMO. otherwise GL and keep it going. 1 a day is discipline!

 

[nightlifevet]

TWINS over giants today!!!!!!

 

[ck013]

Saturday 05/24/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
Josh Collmenter (R) (2-2) 4.02 ERA vs. Zack Wheeler (R) (1-4) 4.53 ERA

In Today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the Day we try to build on last night’s win with the Reds. We try do it in an under the radar game with two struggling teams and two struggling pitchers. Josh Collmenter and the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Zach Wheeler and the New York Mets, in what will be a game one after last night’s game was postponed to due to poor weather conditions.

Josh Collmenter comes into today’s game with a 2-2 record and a 4.02 ERA. Zack Wheeler comes in with a 1-4 record and a 4.53 ERA. Collmenter’s FIP is 4.86 making a run differential of -0.84, almost a full run. Wheeler’s FIP is actually 3.82 putting him at a +0.71 run differential. To put these pitchers further apart, Collmenter’s BaBIP is .252, Wheeler’s BaBIP is .340. Essentially it seems as though Collmenter has been fairly lucky and still bad, and while Wheeler looks worse, he actually has had no help which would explain his numbers.

Both teams are struggling, the D-Backs are hitting .246 against righties their last five, the Mets .240. Where I do believe the Mets have an advantage that plays to each pitcher’s weakness; the Mets are averaging 4.6 strikeouts (hitting) per game while the D-Backs average 7 (both over their last five games). It is a lot harder to get lucky without putting the ball in play, the Mets do a better job of putting the ball in play giving them an advantage to Wheeler’s .340 BaBIP.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be right hand man after Harvey in correlation to the Mets. They hoped he would pick up the slack in Harvey’s absence after having a successful rookie season, but the balls literally haven’t fallen his way. How can you not see value in Zack Wheeler at -114? Especially when you consider the D-Backs have been one of the few teams the Mets have had recent success against. I see the line shading in favor of the D-Backs but that only gives us more value here.

The Square Play of the Day, the Mets - 114

 

[ck013]

Theres a few teams every year that people (including myself), just shouldn't touch and the Mets are one of them.

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/24/2014 - Mets - 1.14 to win 1.00 - LOSS


New Updated Record 8-6, Units +1.51 (all games are for one unit).

 

[ck013]

Sunday 05/25/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Cole Hammel (R) (5-2) 2.91 ERA vs. Ian Kennedy (R) (2-6) 3.79 ERA

Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day was as ugly a game as I had seen, and a tough loss. Today we look at an interesting game and prepare for a higher price. The Chicago Cubs are in town visiting the San Diego Padres in game four of a four game series, Chicago leading the series 2-1. Today in San Diego, we have two righties, Jason Hammel taking on Ian Kennedy.

Jason Hammel comes into this game with a 5-2 record and a 2.91 ERA. Kennedy, a 2-6 record and a 3.79 ERA. Both pitchers got off to tremendous starts in April, but have really came down to earth in May; Hammel had a 2.08 ERA in April, Kennedy had a 3.16. In May however, Hammel has posted an ERA of 4.13 and Kennedy 4.74. Hammel strolls in with an FIP of 3.21 only a -0.30 run differential which doesn’t seem too bad, however his BaBIP is .223 making him very dangerous to take right now as we know that number will rise. Kennedy’s FIP is sitting at 2.74 giving him a +1.05 run differential, and his BaBIP is .327 which is not too high but still leaves room for improvement. Before his last start Hammel lost three in a row to start May before picking up a big win against the Yankees. Over 5.2 innings he gave up only four hits and one earned run in a 6-1 home victory, making Hamel’s stock right now, very high. Kennedy meanwhile, is winless in May making his stock extremely low.

The Cubs are 8-15 on the road and they have already won two of this four game series. The Padres are 13-15 at home which is a lot better than their 9-13 road record. The Cubs are batting .228 their last five against righties, the Padres not much better at .232. Where I do see an advantage is in the bullpen as the Cubs bullpen have an ERA of 3, while the Padres have an ERA of 1.69 both over their last five. This may take into account when we remember in Hammel’s last start he had a minor scare with a line driving coming back off his hand, we do not know his true condition.

This line opened up at Padres -130 at a lot of books, it is sitting anywhere from -140 to -145 and I still see value. Although I would have loved the 130, I still believe this is a great matchup for the Padres today. I will not only being taking the -140, I will also for the first time be making this a two unit game to take advantage of the mismatch. Why is a 5-2 record, 2.91 ERA a dog to a 2-6, 3.79 ERA? There is always a reason.

The Square Play of the Day, Padres – 140 (2 Units)

 

[bloodsweatandbeers]

b/c its cole hammel?

 

[slowplayer]

b/c its cole hammel?

Who the hell is Cole Hammel? Cole HAMELS pitches for the Phillies. This is JASON Hammel pitching for the Cubs.

 

[ck013]

Sorry guys huge mistake, the write up is about Jason Hammel, I had a brain fart writing the intro I actually write the intros after the write ups themselves, sorry.

 

[doogieboy]

Congrats. Won the ML but tried a little on the RL....thought I had it...sorry bullpens :>(

 

[ck013]

First two unit play, successful.

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/25/2014 - Padres - 2.80 to win 2.00 - WIN


New Updated Record 9-6, Units +3.51 (all games are for one unit).

 

[ck013]

Monday 05/26/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jhoulys Chacin (R) (0-3) 4.76 ERA vs. Kyle Kendrick (R) (0-5) 4.53 ERA

Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day, was the first two unit play this season and we cashed in, today we look to build on that win. Today’s Square Play of the Day is an ugly one on paper. In this Memorial Day edition, we will look at the stats but we throw them out the window, it’s all about the situation. Today Jhoulys Chacin takes the mound for the Colorado Rockies against Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Yes, the Phillies were just no hit and the Rockies were just shut out. Both of these teams come in a little embarrassed and ready for a new game to wipe yesterday’s memories away. The Chacin comes into today’s game with a 0-3 record and a 4.76 ERA. His FIP stands at 5.12 leaving a -0.36 run differential, and his BaBIP is a little low at .274, not great numbers. Kyle Kendrick hosts today with a 0-5 record and a 4.53 ERA. Kendrick’s FIP is currently 4.57, a -0.04 run differential almost right on. His BaBIP is .278, both of these pitchers are having rough starts.

Over the last five games the Rockies are hitting .207 against righties while the Phils are right behind them with .210. The Rockies have only averaged 1.19 runs per nine innings, the Phillies are averaging 2.97 runs per nine innings, both against righties and both over the last five games. Both teams are struggling offensively coming into this one, but the Rockies have the tougher stretch as they continue their road trip after losing 2 out of 3 in Atlanta to the Braves. The Phillies actually played the Dodgers tough (with the exception of last night), and although the Dodgers were on a road trip they actually have a better road record.

As mentioned before, today we pretty much throw the numbers out. Here we have two teams struggling to produce offense, both coming off of shut outs. This game will come down to who was more embarrassed, the Rockies getting shut-out on the road in Atlanta or the Phillies getting no-hit becoming 34 year-old Josh Beckett’s first victim (at home). Last night the Phillies were home so they had all the time in the world after the game to watch highlights, and hear from family and friends about getting no-hit. The Rockies meanwhile, were on the road looking ahead to playing the team who got no-hit. I think the Phillies are the more embarrassed team and will play tonight with some extra motivation.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies -115

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/26/2014 - Phillies - 1.15 to win 1.00 - WIN


New Updated Record 10-6, Units +4.51 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[ck013]

Tuesday 05/27/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jorge De Le Rosa (L) (5-3) 3.91 ERA vs. Cole Hamels (L) (1-2) 4.30 ERA

Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day saw the Phillies getting a win over the Rockies in a big way. Today’s Square Play of the Day, we go right back to the Rockies visiting the Phillies for game two of their three game series. Today 33 year old lefty, Jorge De La Rosa takes the mount for the Rockies to face off with 30 year old lefty, Cole Hamels.

Jorge De Le Rosa currently stands with a 5-3 record and a 3.91 ERA. His FIP however, 4.22 with a -0.33 run differential and his balls in play average stands at .241. This number is very low and yet his FIP still has a negative differential, not a very good stat. Cole Hamels has a 1-2 record with a 4.30 ERA, which doesn’t look too appealing. Cole’s FIP stands at a strong 3.08, a +1.22 run differential and his balls in play average is currently .359 leaving plenty of room for improvement. Unlike De La Rosa who seems to have been fortunate this season, we see Hamels has actually pitched fairly well thus far; just hasn’t had an breaks go his way.

Looking at the rest of the team, the Rockies this year are hitting .296 against lefties but only .209 their last five versus lefties. The Phils are hitting .225 their last five against lefties which isn’t much better but they do have a higher on base percentage of .295 opposed to the Rockies’ .277 average. The next advantage I see is the bullpen in which the Rockies bullpen ERA over their last five, an ugly 6.91. The Phillies, 0.71 ERA for their bullpen two opposite ends of the spectrum.

In yesterday’s game we threw the numbers out and played the situation. Today we will consider the stats, but will also play today’s situation. The Rockies were shut out two games in a row, while the Phillies exploded on them for nine runs after being no-hit by Josh Beckett. Based off both the numbers, and the situation it seems as though Philly is starting to heat up a little bit playing with a nasty taste in their mouth after being globally embarrassed. The Rockies, have been playing poorly, and have been under the radar not really having to answer for their poor play. It seems as though the Rockies are sinking into a slump and the Phillies could be heating up. We will play both teams day-to-day but today, we see value in the Phillies again.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies -120