Friday 05/16/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Alfredo Simon (R) (4-2) 2.89 ERA @ Kyle Kendrick (R) (0-3) 3.98 ERA
This Friday night we have Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies hosting Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are coming off of a double header in which they split the day, but lost the three game series against the visiting Padres. The Phillies had the day off yesterday after dropping three straight games including being swept in a two game series at home against the Angels.
Kendrick is currently posting a 3.98 ERA with an ugly 0-3 record, Simon flashes a 2.89 ERA with a 4-2 record. The first thing we take a look at is what we consider Simon’s true ERA (his FIP) and how often balls that are put in play go for hits. Simon has an FIP of 5.15, a -2.26 differential, a major run difference of over two runs. Not to mention only 21.2% (extremely low) of balls put into play off of Simon have been hits, this will not remain that low.
Kendrick has a true ERA (FIP) of 4.95 which is a -0.97 differential but still his true numbers seem to be better than that of his opposition. 28.6% of balls put in play off of Kendrick are hits which is a little low but closer to the average it should be. Due to these true numbers, I would have had the Phillies favored, especially since the Reds are coming off of a double header and then had to travel to Philly, while the Phillies were at home with a refreshing day off.
Both teams are struggling to hit against right handed pitching. Both of these teams have an on base percentage under .300 against righties in each of their last five games. A notable difference I do see is in the bullpen. Over their last five games the Philly bullpen has a 2.37 ERA and a 24% on base percentage. The Reds pen has an ERA of 8.44 and an on base percentage of 40.4% over their last five games.
Going back to the starting pitching Simon also has a ground-ball fly-ball ratio of 0.88 so he has been more of a fly-ball pitcher. Kendrick has a 1.07 ground-ball to fly-ball ratio making him more of the ground-ball pitcher. Although Citizens Bank Park in Philly has an ESPN park factor of 0.794 for runs, in Home-runs the park is 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league with a 1.129.
In a high home-run ballpark I would rather have a ground-ball pitcher, than a fly-ball pitcher. Not to mention, out of 132 at-bats, the Reds are hitting only .265 against Kendrick. I would also rather have a rested home team than a traveling team who just played three games in two nights, especially when both teams are struggling to produce consistent offense. Finally, the bullpen can be huge in a game where home-runs are more common and offenses are lacking, and the Reds bullpen is really struggling. Given the circumstances, I see value getting the Phillies a dog, at home in this situation.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Phillies +101
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Alfredo Simon (R) (4-2) 2.89 ERA @ Kyle Kendrick (R) (0-3) 3.98 ERA
This Friday night we have Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies hosting Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are coming off of a double header in which they split the day, but lost the three game series against the visiting Padres. The Phillies had the day off yesterday after dropping three straight games including being swept in a two game series at home against the Angels.
Kendrick is currently posting a 3.98 ERA with an ugly 0-3 record, Simon flashes a 2.89 ERA with a 4-2 record. The first thing we take a look at is what we consider Simon’s true ERA (his FIP) and how often balls that are put in play go for hits. Simon has an FIP of 5.15, a -2.26 differential, a major run difference of over two runs. Not to mention only 21.2% (extremely low) of balls put into play off of Simon have been hits, this will not remain that low.
Kendrick has a true ERA (FIP) of 4.95 which is a -0.97 differential but still his true numbers seem to be better than that of his opposition. 28.6% of balls put in play off of Kendrick are hits which is a little low but closer to the average it should be. Due to these true numbers, I would have had the Phillies favored, especially since the Reds are coming off of a double header and then had to travel to Philly, while the Phillies were at home with a refreshing day off.
Both teams are struggling to hit against right handed pitching. Both of these teams have an on base percentage under .300 against righties in each of their last five games. A notable difference I do see is in the bullpen. Over their last five games the Philly bullpen has a 2.37 ERA and a 24% on base percentage. The Reds pen has an ERA of 8.44 and an on base percentage of 40.4% over their last five games.
Going back to the starting pitching Simon also has a ground-ball fly-ball ratio of 0.88 so he has been more of a fly-ball pitcher. Kendrick has a 1.07 ground-ball to fly-ball ratio making him more of the ground-ball pitcher. Although Citizens Bank Park in Philly has an ESPN park factor of 0.794 for runs, in Home-runs the park is 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league with a 1.129.
In a high home-run ballpark I would rather have a ground-ball pitcher, than a fly-ball pitcher. Not to mention, out of 132 at-bats, the Reds are hitting only .265 against Kendrick. I would also rather have a rested home team than a traveling team who just played three games in two nights, especially when both teams are struggling to produce consistent offense. Finally, the bullpen can be huge in a game where home-runs are more common and offenses are lacking, and the Reds bullpen is really struggling. Given the circumstances, I see value getting the Phillies a dog, at home in this situation.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Phillies +101
Saturday 05/17/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Harang (R) (4-3) 2.98 ERA @ Shelby Miller (R) (5-2) 3.22 ERA
Today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the day, the Atlanta Braves visiting the St. Louis Cardinals in a game two, with a 2:15PM start. Today we try to bounce back from our 3-0 loss in yesterday’s Reds, Phillies game. The Braves send out Aaron Harang, to combat the Cardinal’s righty Shelby Miller.
Shelby Miller comes in with a 3.22 ERA and a 5-2 record. His team is 5-3 when he starts and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Shelby Miller has a true ERA of 5.88 with an incredibly dangerous -2.66 run differential. When we add in his balls in play average of only 25.4%, it reveals he may be somewhat fraudulent with his record this year. Even with the luck he has with BaBIP (batting average ball in play), his ERA is still only 3.22.
Aaron Harang comes in with a 2.98 ERA and 4-3 record. His team is also 5-3 in his starts and over his last three games, his team is only 1-2. Harang amazingly enough, in his last road start vs. Miami gave up nine earned runs, but his FIP is only 2.53 creating a +0.45 run differential. Another eye catching stat is that even with this incredible FIP, we hold our breathe to see how lucky he has been; however we see that his balls in play average is actually 30.9% which is right where it should be.
These two faced off in Atlanta earlier this month with Shelby and his Cardinals taking the win 4-3. The Braves were going into that game riding a six game losing streak, and the Cardinals made it seven before Atlanta snapped it by beating St. Louis in game two of their three game series. Not to mention it was the Braves seventh straight game without a day off, and it was only the Cardinal’s fourth.
Aaron Harang has pitched well against the Cardinals; out of 138 at-bats the Cards are only hitting .261 against him. The Braves don’t do too well themselves against Shelby, with a smaller sample size (54 at-bats), holds the Braves to a .278 average. The scary part for the Cardinals is Freddie Freeman is 9 for 4, Evan Gattis is 2 for 6, and even Andrelton Simmons is 7 for 3.
The Cardinals have definitely been hitting a lot better than the Braves. The Cardinal’s pitching however has struggled particularly their bullpen who has an ERA of 6.27 over their last five games. In their last meeting Shelby only went five innings and this season he hasn’t gone more than six innings pitched in a game.
It’s very hard to beat a pitcher twice in this league especially when that pitcher has true numbers better than yours. This game I look at for the situation, and I see value in the Braves as a dog. This is a game two on a Saturday, Braves are 5-1 on Saturdays. The Braves are 10-3 in game two and the Cardinals are 6-7.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves +100
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Harang (R) (4-3) 2.98 ERA @ Shelby Miller (R) (5-2) 3.22 ERA
Today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the day, the Atlanta Braves visiting the St. Louis Cardinals in a game two, with a 2:15PM start. Today we try to bounce back from our 3-0 loss in yesterday’s Reds, Phillies game. The Braves send out Aaron Harang, to combat the Cardinal’s righty Shelby Miller.
Shelby Miller comes in with a 3.22 ERA and a 5-2 record. His team is 5-3 when he starts and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Shelby Miller has a true ERA of 5.88 with an incredibly dangerous -2.66 run differential. When we add in his balls in play average of only 25.4%, it reveals he may be somewhat fraudulent with his record this year. Even with the luck he has with BaBIP (batting average ball in play), his ERA is still only 3.22.
Aaron Harang comes in with a 2.98 ERA and 4-3 record. His team is also 5-3 in his starts and over his last three games, his team is only 1-2. Harang amazingly enough, in his last road start vs. Miami gave up nine earned runs, but his FIP is only 2.53 creating a +0.45 run differential. Another eye catching stat is that even with this incredible FIP, we hold our breathe to see how lucky he has been; however we see that his balls in play average is actually 30.9% which is right where it should be.
These two faced off in Atlanta earlier this month with Shelby and his Cardinals taking the win 4-3. The Braves were going into that game riding a six game losing streak, and the Cardinals made it seven before Atlanta snapped it by beating St. Louis in game two of their three game series. Not to mention it was the Braves seventh straight game without a day off, and it was only the Cardinal’s fourth.
Aaron Harang has pitched well against the Cardinals; out of 138 at-bats the Cards are only hitting .261 against him. The Braves don’t do too well themselves against Shelby, with a smaller sample size (54 at-bats), holds the Braves to a .278 average. The scary part for the Cardinals is Freddie Freeman is 9 for 4, Evan Gattis is 2 for 6, and even Andrelton Simmons is 7 for 3.
The Cardinals have definitely been hitting a lot better than the Braves. The Cardinal’s pitching however has struggled particularly their bullpen who has an ERA of 6.27 over their last five games. In their last meeting Shelby only went five innings and this season he hasn’t gone more than six innings pitched in a game.
It’s very hard to beat a pitcher twice in this league especially when that pitcher has true numbers better than yours. This game I look at for the situation, and I see value in the Braves as a dog. This is a game two on a Saturday, Braves are 5-1 on Saturdays. The Braves are 10-3 in game two and the Cardinals are 6-7.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves +100
[FONT=Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Two bad losses [/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]1st Game, 5/17/2014 - Braves - 1 to win 1 - LOSS[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]New Updated Record 5-2, Units +3.2 (all games are for one unit).[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]1st Game, 5/17/2014 - Braves - 1 to win 1 - LOSS[/FONT]
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Sunday 05/18/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
Jesse Chavez (R) (3-1) 2.44 ERA @ Justin Masterson(R) (2-2) 4.31 ERA
In today’s Sunday Square Play of the Day, we try to get over this two game set back and get back on track. We are doing it with a matchup between Jesse Chavez and his Oakland Athletics, on the road against Justin Masterson and his Cleveland Indians in game two as Cleveland tries to avoid the three game sweep.
Jesse Chavez has terrific numbers with a 2.44 ERA and a 3-1 record, while Materson’s 4.31 ERA and 2-2 record rates him mediocre. Chavez has a -0.68 run differential in his FIP, and a 25.5% balls in play average. Masterson has a +0.64 run differential in his FIP and only a 31.3% balls in play average.
Over the last five games Oakland is hitting .312 against righties, while Cleveland is hitting .293. Last five games the Oakland bullpen has posted a 4.15 ERA while Cleveland’s is 3.72. These two teams at first look, seem like a complete mismatch but in this situation they matchup fairly evenly.
The A’s out of 151 at-bats, are only hitting .225 against Masterson. The Indians have a much smaller sample size of Chavez with only 36 at-bats, however they do hold a .306 average. I believe the Indians will have their extra motivation to not get swept on their home field, especially after being humiliated in their game yesterday.
The Square Play of the Day, Indians +105
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
Jesse Chavez (R) (3-1) 2.44 ERA @ Justin Masterson(R) (2-2) 4.31 ERA
In today’s Sunday Square Play of the Day, we try to get over this two game set back and get back on track. We are doing it with a matchup between Jesse Chavez and his Oakland Athletics, on the road against Justin Masterson and his Cleveland Indians in game two as Cleveland tries to avoid the three game sweep.
Jesse Chavez has terrific numbers with a 2.44 ERA and a 3-1 record, while Materson’s 4.31 ERA and 2-2 record rates him mediocre. Chavez has a -0.68 run differential in his FIP, and a 25.5% balls in play average. Masterson has a +0.64 run differential in his FIP and only a 31.3% balls in play average.
Over the last five games Oakland is hitting .312 against righties, while Cleveland is hitting .293. Last five games the Oakland bullpen has posted a 4.15 ERA while Cleveland’s is 3.72. These two teams at first look, seem like a complete mismatch but in this situation they matchup fairly evenly.
The A’s out of 151 at-bats, are only hitting .225 against Masterson. The Indians have a much smaller sample size of Chavez with only 36 at-bats, however they do hold a .306 average. I believe the Indians will have their extra motivation to not get swept on their home field, especially after being humiliated in their game yesterday.
The Square Play of the Day, Indians +105
Monday 05/19/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Wily Peralta (R) (4-2) 2.05 ERA @ Mike Minor (L) (1-2) 4.24 ERA
In this Monday night Square Play of the day, the losing has to stop. We are on a three game losing streak; fortunately we are still up over two units. Tonight we look at the Milwaukee Brewers taking on the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers send out the 25 year old righty, Wily Peralta, to face off with the Brave’s 26 year old lefty, Mike Minor; in game one of their four game series in Atlanta
Peralta thus far has an ERA of 2.05 with a 4-2 record. The Brewers are 5-3 in games he has started, but despite only giving up only three combined runs in his last three starts; the Brewers managed to end up 1-2 over his last three. Minor comes into today’s game with a 4.24 ERA and only a 1-2 record, as this will only be Minor’s 4th start so far in 2014.
When look inside the numbers, Peralta has an FIP of 3.70 making him -1.65 runs worse than his FIP, and his batting average balls in play has been a very low, .269; leaving a lot of room for error. Minor, has an FIP of 4.19 making a differential of only +0.05, almost right on. His batting average balls in play however, is a very high .360 leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Over the last five games, the Brewers are only hitting .165 against lefties. They are averaging just under two runs per nine innings, and an OBP percentage of only .224 (versus lefties). The Braves over their last five games have averaged .221 batting average, earned just under three runs per nine innings and have an OBP of .283 all versus righties.
Besides the direction each pitcher seems to be trending, the Braves themselves have been offensively anemic, that is until last night’s come from behind win with a late game rally to top the Cardinals 6-5. This will be the Braves first game back home after a six game road trip. The Brewers come limping into today’s game having dropped two out of three to the Cubs in their first three games of a ten game road trip.
When we look at the bullpen, the Brewers on the road have an ERA of 3.56, and a 1.295 WHIP, both numbers higher than their season totals so seem to be better at home than on the road. The Braves bullpen at home have a 2.50 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP both numbers lower than their season totals making them better at home.
I see value in this situation as I do believe the Braves hitting will pick up especially after a dramatic win in yesterday’s win, and their return home after a long road trip. The Brewers seem to be struggling so far although it is early in this road trip, again they lost two out of three to the cubs who didn’t play great themselves.
Today's Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves -125
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Wily Peralta (R) (4-2) 2.05 ERA @ Mike Minor (L) (1-2) 4.24 ERA
In this Monday night Square Play of the day, the losing has to stop. We are on a three game losing streak; fortunately we are still up over two units. Tonight we look at the Milwaukee Brewers taking on the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers send out the 25 year old righty, Wily Peralta, to face off with the Brave’s 26 year old lefty, Mike Minor; in game one of their four game series in Atlanta
Peralta thus far has an ERA of 2.05 with a 4-2 record. The Brewers are 5-3 in games he has started, but despite only giving up only three combined runs in his last three starts; the Brewers managed to end up 1-2 over his last three. Minor comes into today’s game with a 4.24 ERA and only a 1-2 record, as this will only be Minor’s 4th start so far in 2014.
When look inside the numbers, Peralta has an FIP of 3.70 making him -1.65 runs worse than his FIP, and his batting average balls in play has been a very low, .269; leaving a lot of room for error. Minor, has an FIP of 4.19 making a differential of only +0.05, almost right on. His batting average balls in play however, is a very high .360 leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Over the last five games, the Brewers are only hitting .165 against lefties. They are averaging just under two runs per nine innings, and an OBP percentage of only .224 (versus lefties). The Braves over their last five games have averaged .221 batting average, earned just under three runs per nine innings and have an OBP of .283 all versus righties.
Besides the direction each pitcher seems to be trending, the Braves themselves have been offensively anemic, that is until last night’s come from behind win with a late game rally to top the Cardinals 6-5. This will be the Braves first game back home after a six game road trip. The Brewers come limping into today’s game having dropped two out of three to the Cubs in their first three games of a ten game road trip.
When we look at the bullpen, the Brewers on the road have an ERA of 3.56, and a 1.295 WHIP, both numbers higher than their season totals so seem to be better at home than on the road. The Braves bullpen at home have a 2.50 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP both numbers lower than their season totals making them better at home.
I see value in this situation as I do believe the Braves hitting will pick up especially after a dramatic win in yesterday’s win, and their return home after a long road trip. The Brewers seem to be struggling so far although it is early in this road trip, again they lost two out of three to the cubs who didn’t play great themselves.
Today's Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves -125
Tuesday 05/20/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Johnny Cueto (R) (4-2) 1.25 ERA @ Doug Fister (R) (0-1) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play the Day, what seems to be a mismatch with Johnny Cueto taking on Doug Fister in game two of their three game series. Last night the Nationals made a dramatic late game rally to come back and put the game into extra innings, however after a few miraculous defensive plays by the Reds, the Reds took the game in the 15[SUP]th[/SUP] inning.
Johnny Cueto has been virtually lights out. He holds a 4-2 record with a 1.25 ERA, and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Cueto’s FIP is 2.98, a -1.73 run differential, even with the differential his FIP is pretty good. The only issue is he has not only had great defense behind him but a lot of luck as well; his batting average balls in play average is .160, extremely low even for Cueto.
Although Fister is only making his third start this year, this is his home debut. We don’t know which Fister to expect in today’s game but what we do know is Cincinnati is hitting .162 over their last five games against right handed pitching, and .199 over its last ten. The Reds have only been averaging 1.89 runs per nine innings versus righties while the Nationals are averaging 3.35.
If the Nationals can get Cueto out of the game, they face a struggling Red bullpen. The Reds pen have an ERA of 6.75 over their last five games. The Nationals bullpen should, Fister struggle, 0.78 over their last five. The Reds were very lucky to win last night, and they seem to be reeling with a starving offense. The Nationals feel robbed, and an excited National crowd should get Fister pumped and ready to roll for his home debut.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, Nationals -105
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Johnny Cueto (R) (4-2) 1.25 ERA @ Doug Fister (R) (0-1) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play the Day, what seems to be a mismatch with Johnny Cueto taking on Doug Fister in game two of their three game series. Last night the Nationals made a dramatic late game rally to come back and put the game into extra innings, however after a few miraculous defensive plays by the Reds, the Reds took the game in the 15[SUP]th[/SUP] inning.
Johnny Cueto has been virtually lights out. He holds a 4-2 record with a 1.25 ERA, and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Cueto’s FIP is 2.98, a -1.73 run differential, even with the differential his FIP is pretty good. The only issue is he has not only had great defense behind him but a lot of luck as well; his batting average balls in play average is .160, extremely low even for Cueto.
Although Fister is only making his third start this year, this is his home debut. We don’t know which Fister to expect in today’s game but what we do know is Cincinnati is hitting .162 over their last five games against right handed pitching, and .199 over its last ten. The Reds have only been averaging 1.89 runs per nine innings versus righties while the Nationals are averaging 3.35.
If the Nationals can get Cueto out of the game, they face a struggling Red bullpen. The Reds pen have an ERA of 6.75 over their last five games. The Nationals bullpen should, Fister struggle, 0.78 over their last five. The Reds were very lucky to win last night, and they seem to be reeling with a starving offense. The Nationals feel robbed, and an excited National crowd should get Fister pumped and ready to roll for his home debut.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, Nationals -105
Wednesday 05/21/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Matt Cain (R) (1-3) 3.92 ERA @ Jhoulys Chacin (R) (0-2) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play of the Day, game two of the Giants visiting the Rockies. After Giants pulled ahead in the top of the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], the Rockies responded in the bottom of the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], taking game one 5-4. Today the Giants send out the 29 year old, right handed Matt Cain. The Rockies will oppose with 26 year old righty, Jhoulys Chacin.
For Matt Cain, a 3.92 ERA and a 1-3 record, his team is 2-5 in his starts. Matt Cain earned a no decision in his April 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] start against the Rockies, giving up seven earned, his team bailed him out by winning the game 12-10. In his last start he managed to get his first win of the season after going 7.2 innings and giving up four earned runs against the Marlins in San Francisco. His FIP is currently 4.75, a -0.83 run differential from his ERA (almost a full run worse). Even with the negative differential, his BaBIP (batting average balls in play) is only .268, leaving plenty of room for error.
Jhoulys Chacin comes into tonight’s game with a 4.76 ERA and a record of 0-2, as he makes his fourth start tonight. Although Chacin’s numbers seem bad, he has only given up four earned, three earned and two earned in his three starts. His team is 0-3 in his starts this year, but as previously mentioned it has not necessarily been his fault. His FIP (although three games is a small sample size) is 4.43 making a +0.33 differential, and his BaBIP is right where is should be at .305.
Over the last five games, the Giants are hitting .280 against righties, they have had an OBP of .326 and are averaging 4.45 runs per nine innings. The Rockies over their last five are hitting .294, with an OBP of .368, and a 5.19 runs per nine inning average all against righties. Chacin has pitched 175 at-bats to the Giant players who are hitting .251 against him. Buster Posey has hit him well going 9 for 19 and Pablo Sandoval is 8 for 27. Matt Cain has pitched 220 at-bats against Colorado players who are hitting only .232 against him. The problem is that Charlie Blackmon is 6-12 and Troy Tulowitzki is 21-63 (.394) against him. Although each pitcher has their issues with players on the opposing teams, the combination of Blackmon and Tulowitzki hitting well together; is a problem for the Giants.
In game one the Rockies’ bullpen blew a hold in the top of the 9th allowing the Giants to score the go ahead run. In the bottom of the inning the Giant’s closer Romo, blew a save and allowed the Rockies to win 5-4. The Giants bullpen over their last five games have a 4.15 ERA, while the Rockies’ pen maintains a 3.24 ERA over their last five. The Rockies and Giants are both playing good ball, this should be a great game, but in the Rockies’ notorious home run ballpark; I’ll take the home team with 63 home runs (tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in majors).
The Square Play of the Day, Rockies -125
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Matt Cain (R) (1-3) 3.92 ERA @ Jhoulys Chacin (R) (0-2) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play of the Day, game two of the Giants visiting the Rockies. After Giants pulled ahead in the top of the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], the Rockies responded in the bottom of the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], taking game one 5-4. Today the Giants send out the 29 year old, right handed Matt Cain. The Rockies will oppose with 26 year old righty, Jhoulys Chacin.
For Matt Cain, a 3.92 ERA and a 1-3 record, his team is 2-5 in his starts. Matt Cain earned a no decision in his April 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] start against the Rockies, giving up seven earned, his team bailed him out by winning the game 12-10. In his last start he managed to get his first win of the season after going 7.2 innings and giving up four earned runs against the Marlins in San Francisco. His FIP is currently 4.75, a -0.83 run differential from his ERA (almost a full run worse). Even with the negative differential, his BaBIP (batting average balls in play) is only .268, leaving plenty of room for error.
Jhoulys Chacin comes into tonight’s game with a 4.76 ERA and a record of 0-2, as he makes his fourth start tonight. Although Chacin’s numbers seem bad, he has only given up four earned, three earned and two earned in his three starts. His team is 0-3 in his starts this year, but as previously mentioned it has not necessarily been his fault. His FIP (although three games is a small sample size) is 4.43 making a +0.33 differential, and his BaBIP is right where is should be at .305.
Over the last five games, the Giants are hitting .280 against righties, they have had an OBP of .326 and are averaging 4.45 runs per nine innings. The Rockies over their last five are hitting .294, with an OBP of .368, and a 5.19 runs per nine inning average all against righties. Chacin has pitched 175 at-bats to the Giant players who are hitting .251 against him. Buster Posey has hit him well going 9 for 19 and Pablo Sandoval is 8 for 27. Matt Cain has pitched 220 at-bats against Colorado players who are hitting only .232 against him. The problem is that Charlie Blackmon is 6-12 and Troy Tulowitzki is 21-63 (.394) against him. Although each pitcher has their issues with players on the opposing teams, the combination of Blackmon and Tulowitzki hitting well together; is a problem for the Giants.
In game one the Rockies’ bullpen blew a hold in the top of the 9th allowing the Giants to score the go ahead run. In the bottom of the inning the Giant’s closer Romo, blew a save and allowed the Rockies to win 5-4. The Giants bullpen over their last five games have a 4.15 ERA, while the Rockies’ pen maintains a 3.24 ERA over their last five. The Rockies and Giants are both playing good ball, this should be a great game, but in the Rockies’ notorious home run ballpark; I’ll take the home team with 63 home runs (tied for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in majors).
The Square Play of the Day, Rockies -125
