The Square Play of the Day!

[ck013]

Tuesday 06/17/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnny Cueto (R) (6-5) 1.85 ERA vs. Brandon Cumpton (R) (2-2) 6.06 ERA

Close call last night but the Indians got it done giving us the win. In today’s matchup we are looking into game one of a three game series between the Reds and the Pirates, in Pittsburgh. Both teams are coming off of a day off, and the Pirates are returning but home only for this series. Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds to take on Brandon Cumpton and the Pirates.

Johnny Cueto has had a terrific season thus far while Cumpton makes only his seventh start in what has been an up and down 2014. Johnny Cueto holds a 6-5 record and a 1.85 ERA. His FIP is 2.76 and his xFIP is 2.72, although these numbers are higher than his ERA portrays, they are still impressive. The concern is his BaBIP is still dangerously low at .202 and his LOB% is high at 79.7% another scary situation. Cumpton is 2-2 with a 6.06 ERA. His FIP is actually 3.45 and his xFIP has him at 4.21, not as impressive as Cueto’s but a lot better than his ERA shows. His BaBIP is very high at .353 and his LOB% is very low at 57.8%, he has been very unfortunate thus far.

While PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is 8th in the league in runs (according to ESPN Park Factors), it is also 27th in homeruns. It seems as though this ballpark is going to favor the team with most hits, the Pirates are 11th in the league with 621 while the Reds are 28th in the league with 547. At home, the Pirates are averaging .273, we compare this to their .259 record overall. The Reds are averaging .244 on the road, with only a .294 on base percentage (Pirates home OBP is .339).

What happens if bullpens come into the picture? Pittsburgh’s bullpen at home has a 2.86 ERA, while the Red bullpen has a road ERA of 4.36. This situation does not seem like a good one for Cueto and his Reds. With his BaBIP average so low, he is vulnerable to have some misfortune blown his way and his offense is in a ballpark that does not play to their strengths. Should he have a great outing, will he get the runs support and/or will his bullpen hold the lead? Cumpton has been inconsistent but has shown he can play, the Pirate bullpen has been solid and the Pirates hit well at home.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Pirates +110

 

[ck013]

Wednesday 06/18/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Mark Buehrle (L) (10-3) 2.28 ERA vs. Chase Whitley (R) (2-0) 2.41 ERA

After a tough one run loss, we move on with today’s Square Play of the Day. Today we look at the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the New York Yankees in game two of their three game series. Yankees took game one last night with Tanaka on the hill. Today the Blue Jays send their ace left-hander Mark Buehrle, to take on the New York Yankees’ Chase Whitley.

Mark Buehrle is 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA, but his FIP is over a run higher at 3.37 and his xFIP predicts him even higher at 4.21. His BaBIP is low at .287 and his LOB% is high at 81% through his 14 starts this year. Chase Whitley 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA but only through six starts. His FIP is not far from his ERA at 2.59, and his xFIP is better than Buehrle’s at 3.83. Whitley does have a low BaBIP and higher LOB% but he has only had six starts giving him more of a margin. Where Chase has another advantage is in the walks department as Buehrle averages 2.47 walks per game and Chase averages 0.80.

The Blue Jays are hitting .230 against righties over their last five while the Yankees are hitting .286 against lefties their last five. The Yankees are also averaging over 6 runs per nine innings against lefties over their last five. The Blue Jays are 2-5 their last seven, the Yankees are 5-2, we noticed the Blue Jays have fallen into a bit of rut. Out of 395 at-bats the Yankees are hitting .314 against Buehrle.

Chase Whitely has only had one start at home this season and will be looking to impress the home crowd. This matchup is a good one for the Yankees when we combine Buerhle’s BaBIP and his LOB% to the Yankees hitting versus lefties. Not to mention, Buehrle is 1-10 against the Yankees with a 6.02 ERA, his team’s record is 1-15.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Yankees -105

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today!!!

 

[ck013]

Thursday 06/19/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
David Buchanan (R) (2-3) 5.97 ERA vs. Shelby Miller (R) (7-5) 3.42 ERA

After a comfortable victory last night we move on with Thursday’s edition of the Square Play of the Day. Tonight’s matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies continue their road trip visiting the St. Louis Cardinals. David Buchanan goes for the Fightin’ Phils, taking of Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. Game one of their four game series.

David Buchanan is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA thus far. While he has only had five starts, his FIP is slightly better than his ERA at 5.43 and his xFIP predicts him at a much improved 3.66. His BaBIP is a.297 right around where it should be, and his LOB% is low at 66.2% leaving room for improvement. While the sample size is low for Buchanan (only five starts) we look at Shelby Miller. Miller is 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA, his FIP is a run higher at 4.64 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.58. Shelby’s BaBIP is low at .254 and his LOB% is high at 80.6% creating a bubble of danger around him.

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming in off a three game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta. The Phillies are averaging .306 and 6.69 runs per nine innings over their last five games against righties. They also hit better on the road averaging .258 in road games compared to their .243 overall average. Both teams have had solid bullpens over each of their last five, the Phils’ bullpen ERA is 1.12 and the Cards 2.35.

The main point of today’s play is the bubble around Shelby Miller. His FIP is over a run higher and his xFIP predicts he will remain higher, along with his BaBIP being so low and his LOB% being high we feel the hot bats of the Phils can really burst that bubble. A pitcher with a bubble like this at -190 to -200 is never a good idea, give me the Fightin’ Phils at +165.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies +165

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today!!!!

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/17/2014 - Pirates - 1 to win 1.10 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/18/2014 - Yankees -1.05 to win 1 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/19/2014- Phillies -1 to win 1.65 - WIN


New Updated Record 24-16, Units +9.02 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[evome]

Nice pick, thank youThankyou)(&

 

[ck013]

Nice pick, thank youThankyou)(&

Np, thanks for reading

 

[ck013]

Friday 06/20/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
Marco Estrada (R) (5-4) 4.82 ERA vs. Christian Bergman (R) (0-1) 3.75 ERA

Last night we had a nice hit on a +165 dog, the Phillies. Today we look to continue the momentum in a game one matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers visiting the Colorado Rockies. The Brewers coming into Colorado after taking three of four from the Diamondbacks in Arizona, while the Rockies are coming off of a day off. The Brewers send Marco Estrada to combat with the Rockies’ rookie, 26 year old Christian Bergman.

Christian Bergman is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA thus far through only two starts, a very small sample size where we ignore the numbers. Marco Estrada is 5-4 with a 4.82 ERA through 14 starts. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 5.92 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.25, still pretty high. The Brewers have lost the last three games Estrada has started, his BaBIP is still low at .242 and his LOB% is still very high at 81.3% yet another bubble.

After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, the Rockies were swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Rockies are 15-24 on the road, but 19-14 at home. Estrada is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA against the Rockies in the two games he has played against them, however he has not pitched in Colorado yet. This start could be a rough debut in Coors Field for Estrada; the Rockies are second in the league in homeruns, Coors Field is fourth in the league in homeruns, and first in the league in runs. Another issue Estrada may have is his GB/FB ratio which is at 33.9% making him a definite flyball pitcher and his HR/FB% is at 18.7%, pretty high through 14 starts.

The Brewers haven’t had a day off since June 9th, and it was not a true day off, but a rain postponement in Citi Field against the Mets. The Rockies are coming in off of what most MLB teams consider a successful road trip going 3-3 against two of baseball’s best. We don’t see Estrada being very successful, and we could see a little fatigue in the Brewer bats, and bullpens. The Rockies have the bats, the field, and the rest needed to take advantage and burst that Estrada bubble even more.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Rockies -110

 

[mgh56]

Thanks for the winners CK, leaning Col. As well. Gl........

 

[ck013]

Saturday 06/21/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Bud Norris (R) (6-5) 3.73 ERA vs. Vidal Nuno (L) (1-3) 5.90 ERA

The Rockies’ pitchers just couldn’t hold it together last night. Even though the Rockies scored ten runs, they lost to Brewers who scored 13. Today we look at an early game, game two of the Baltimore Orioles visiting the New York Yankees. Orioles send out Bud Norris to combat with the Yankees’ Vidal Nuno, a 1PM battle in the Bronx.

Vidal Nuno has been a sore spot in the Yankees starting lineup all season. Through 11 starts he is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA. There are a few positives however, his FIP is slightly lower at 5.17, and his xFIP predicts him at 4.30 over a run and half better than his ERA now. His BaBIP is right around where it should be and his LOB% is very low at 64.7, leaving room for improvement. Vidal is coming off if his worst GSc (pitcher’s game score) performance of the season earning a 12. He went three innings in Oakland giving up 8 hits and 8 runs. Vidal will look to prove he is a major league pitcher at home against a division rival.

Bud Norris is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA, his FIP is higher at 4.43 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.42. It seems as though he should start to trend down, perhaps with his low BaBIP average of .257. Although his LOB% is slightly high at 76.8%, the BaBIP is what the Yankees will try to take advantage of. Another advantage perhaps is the day time setting, the Yankees have enjoyed their day games going 15-8 while the Orioles have survived them at 13-14. The Yankees are also on a four game winning streak, all four games won here in Yankee Stadium.

Although the Orioles have a better overall average against lefties than they do righties, they are only 9-10 against lefties this season. Nuno and Norris have never face each other’s teams, and Norris has been more vulnerable on the road with a 5.23 road ERA compared to that 3.73 overall ERA. I like this spot for the Yankees and see a lot of value with the hot team giving the ball to a pitcher who is desperate to prove he belongs.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Yankees - 108

 

[ck013]

Sunday 06/22/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Ervin Santana (R) (5-4) 4.12 ERA vs. Tanner Roark (R) (6-4) 2.85 ERA

After our second straight loss we look to right the ship in Sunday’s edition of the Square Play of the Day. Sunday’s matchup features the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals in the final game of their series, game four. Tanner Roark takes the hill for the Nationals to take on Ervin Santana and the Atlanta Braves.

Tanner Roark has been great thus far for the Nats with a 6-4 record and a 2.85 ERA. His FIP is higher at 3.37 and his xFIP is 3.74, although not drastic is does draw a little concern. His BaBIP is low at .272, and his LOB% high at 79% giving us more reason to be weary. Ervin Santana holds a 5-4 record with a 4.12 ERA. Santana’s FIP is 3.55 and his xFIP is even better at 3.38, giving hope he will improve. His BaBIP is high a .318 and his LOB% is a tad low at 70.6%, this also shows he should improve over time.

In the last 31 meetings between these two teams the Braves are 24-7. Regardless of where they are in the standings the Braves seem to have the Nationals number. Over the last five games the Nationals are hitting .209 against righties, the Braves are hitting .255. Over the last five games the Nationals bullpen has a 4.26 ERA, the Braves bullpen have a 2.57 ERA.

The Braves have won the first two games, the Nationals just won last night 3-0. With the Braves success against the Nationals we see value in the Braves plus money. While Roark has been impressive his numbers show a probable decline, why not against a team that seems to dominate his team, especially after that team just lost.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Braves +120

 

[ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/20/2014 - Rockies - 1.10 to win 1 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/21/2014 - Yankees -1.08 to win 1 - LOSS
3rd Game, 06/22/2014- Braves -1 to win 1.20 - LOSS


New Updated Record 24-19, Units +5.84 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

 

[ck013]

Monday 06/23/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Alfredo Simon (R) (10-3) 3.05 ERA vs. Jeff Samardzija (R) (2-6) 2.89 ERA

After losing three straight, we plan to fight through and end the streak. Tonight’s matchup is between the Cincinatti Reds and the Chicago Cubs for game one of their series in Chicago. Alfredo Simon takes the hill for the Reds to take on Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs. We look at a new series to start a new streak.

Alfredo Simon has flourished this season, he is 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Jeff Samardzija has had a decent year himself, however you wouldn’t know it looking at his record of 2-6 compared to his ERA of 2.60. Alfredo’s FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 4.44 and his xFIP predicts him over a run higher as well at 4.09. Jeff Samardzija’s FIP is 2.89, less than half a run higher and his xFIP predicts him at 3.19. Simon’s BaBIP average is low at .243 and his LOB% is high at 82.6%, he has had some luck. Jeff’s BaBIP average is right where it should be at .303 and his LOB% is right where it should be at 73.5%, his performances have been fairly raw.

Simon has beaten Samardzija twice this season both in April, once in Chicago and the other in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is coming off a win at home and they are 5-10 in game ones after a win. The Reds also seem to have Monday hangovers going 1-5 on Mondays. The Cubs are 16-21 in night games however the Reds are 19-27 in night games themselves. Another worthy note, the Cubs bullpen ERA over their last five, 2.33; the Reds bullpen, 7.88.

Samardzija holds a 1.64 home ERA through seven starts at home. Between the Red’s apparent Monday blues and their game one blunders, we see the Cubs taking this one. The Cubs closed at a lot of books at -115 in yesterday’s loss to the Pirates. They are right back at -115 to see who will back the Cubs after losing with Hammel on the mound, and we will take that bet.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cubs -115

 

[evome]

Gl

 

[ck013]

Tuesday 06/24/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jordan Zimmermann (R) (5-4) 2.95 ERA vs. Yovani Gallardo (R) (5-4) 3.34 ERA

After the longest losing streak of four games, we are moving into damage control. Today, we look at game two of the Washington Nationals visiting the Milwaukee Brewers. Jordan Zimmermann takes the hill for the Nats to take on Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers. We look the shake off the losing in what on paper looks to be a great matchup.

We will start with Yovani Gallardo who is 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Yovani’s FIP is higher at 4.09 and his xFIP is also higher than his ERA at 3.63. His BaBIP average is low at .266 and his LOB% is very high at 80.9%. These numbers are not too appealing to side with, they are a dangerous combination. Especially when you consider that Gallardo’s record versus the Nationals is 3-3 with a 6.44 ERA, again not appealing.

Jordan Zimmermann is 5-4 with a 2.95 ERA thus far. His FIP is even lower at 2.88 and his xFIP is slightly higher at 3.18. Zimmermann has a BaBIP average of .315 and his LOB% is 74.8% both right around where they should be. The most appealing stat, Zimmermann is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.19 against the Brew Crew.

Should the bullpens become a factor on either side, the Nats bullpen ERA over the last five games is 1.62. The Brewers bullpen ERA over their last five is 3.55, and their starters are averaging 4.73. We like the matchup a lot today, and believe this game should have been a pick if not Zimmermann favored.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals +105

 

[evome]

I can't believe Cub collapsed on 9th inning. hno:
Good luck on National, I'm with you.

 

[ck013]

I can't believe Cub collapsed on 9th inning. hno:
Good luck on National, I'm with you.

Thanks last night was a close one.

 

[ck013]

Wednesday 06/25/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Stephen Strasburg (R) (6-5) 3.24 ERA vs. Marco Estrada (R) (6-4) 5.22 ERA

Last night we finally snapped our four game losing streak, and it came in extra innings in a sweater. Today we hope to build some momentum and try to get two on the board. We will stick with the same series, the final game of the series; game three of the Nats visiting the Brewers. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill to battle with Marco Estrada as the Nats go for the sweep.

Stephen Strasburg is 6-5 with a 3.24 ERA, his FIP is 2.43 and his xFIP predicts him at 2.44. His BaBIP is very high at .356 and his LOB% is 70%. Marco Estrada is 6-4 with a 5.22 ERA, his FIP is 5.77 and his xFIP predicts hm at 4.17. Estrada’s BaBIP is low at .260 and his LOB% is slightly high at 76.7%.

We can see here these pitchers are on opposite sides of the spectrum. Strasburg has fought through an unlucky BaBIP average, as Estrada has lucked out enough to a 6-4 record. Looking at these pitcher’s FIP we see Strasburg will be trending upwards as the season progresses, while Estrada’s numbers are all high. Both pitchers are coming off low GSc (game scores), however Strasburg has better bounce back numbers.

Marco Estrada is 0-2 against the Nats with a 6.30 ERA, Strasburg has faced the Brewers only once earning a no decision giving up four hits and no runs. When playing on Wednesdays, the Brewers are 6-6, the Nats are 10-2. You may wonder why Strasburg is only -130, one he is on the road where he has struggled, and also the line is discounted for the sweep. That being said, we see value in the Nats at -130.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -130

 

[evome]

Man~ that was long game. Let's go Nationals!