What line do you have for Oklahoma? I have Oklahoma -3, making K St a play........
And you are right about dealing with "volume," lol. It does make me a hard capper to follow and it requires the availability to be ready for opening lines to get maximum value.
As for tracking EV results in my modeling, that is just a project I haven't got around to adding on, though the results of course would be fascinating. Maybe I'll do it when I get over my obsession of fine tuning lines, lol. Right now I'm pretty comfortable with my totals modeling, as they are dang near spot on. But spot on to match the market, or spot on to extract the best value from the market, that is the question? lol. If anything, it seems the market has progressed to catch up with me, as I haven't changed what I've done, and if the truest line is the closing line...I think the odds makers are finally starting to handicap tempo better (how fast offenses run). Now that they're used to more teams running uptempo it seems like they're setting better lines than they did a couple years ago. I've traditionally done much better at totals and sides, so we'll see how this season plays out. But with sides...well, I still see some extreme differences between my lines and market lines, and I've been working on ways to correctly massage those bigger outliers back into the realm of believable lines. I've held off posting all my lines because I want to post sharper lines on the sides, but I might just post all my lines this week anyway even if I don't get them where I want them.
As for tracking EV results in my modeling, that is just a project I haven't got around to adding on, though the results of course would be fascinating. Maybe I'll do it when I get over my obsession of fine tuning lines, lol. Right now I'm pretty comfortable with my totals modeling, as they are dang near spot on. But spot on to match the market, or spot on to extract the best value from the market, that is the question? lol. If anything, it seems the market has progressed to catch up with me, as I haven't changed what I've done, and if the truest line is the closing line...I think the odds makers are finally starting to handicap tempo better (how fast offenses run). Now that they're used to more teams running uptempo it seems like they're setting better lines than they did a couple years ago. I've traditionally done much better at totals and sides, so we'll see how this season plays out. But with sides...well, I still see some extreme differences between my lines and market lines, and I've been working on ways to correctly massage those bigger outliers back into the realm of believable lines. I've held off posting all my lines because I want to post sharper lines on the sides, but I might just post all my lines this week anyway even if I don't get them where I want them.
Thx, Uni.
Adding for 1 Unit: TEM @ HOU Over 48.5
Going to go against the market move on this, as I think this number will bounce back to at least the opening 50 by game time. The value I'm showing on the Over is not for any one big reason, but for a variety of small reasons.
#1: Both of these teams have only played against average to slow tempo teams this year, helping keep their final score averages below average. However, Houston has seen 3 of 5 games go Over 50, while Temple has seen 2 of 4 go Over. Both of these teams play a medium up-tempo offense, the fastest either team has seen year to date. As for Temple, some of that pace is attributed to how much they throw the ball (and the clock-stopping incompletions they accrue ) when trailing. They threw the ball 50 times in their desperate attempt to catch Navy. Even in their wins against VAN, CONN and TLSA they had an above average tempo on offense. I rate Houston to win this game by double digits, meaning TEM will play very fast with the potential to get pass happy.
#2: A pass happy Temple does not equal a successful passing game for Temple in this match-up, by any means. However, Temple's passing game has improved sequentially in every game this year (by my ratings), which is a favorable factor.
#3: Houston started off the season as a pass happy super unsuccessful offense. In their last three games, however, they've found their run game and a more balanced offense. There's no reason to believe that their offense won't continue to play at its improved level against a mediocre Temple defense.
Temple has been one of the luckiest teams in football this year when measuring yards gained vs. points scored both for and against.........
Oh sheesh, the line moved back up to 50 while I'm writing this. I'll finish it later.
Adding for 1 Unit: TEM @ HOU Over 48.5
Going to go against the market move on this, as I think this number will bounce back to at least the opening 50 by game time. The value I'm showing on the Over is not for any one big reason, but for a variety of small reasons.
#1: Both of these teams have only played against average to slow tempo teams this year, helping keep their final score averages below average. However, Houston has seen 3 of 5 games go Over 50, while Temple has seen 2 of 4 go Over. Both of these teams play a medium up-tempo offense, the fastest either team has seen year to date. As for Temple, some of that pace is attributed to how much they throw the ball (and the clock-stopping incompletions they accrue ) when trailing. They threw the ball 50 times in their desperate attempt to catch Navy. Even in their wins against VAN, CONN and TLSA they had an above average tempo on offense. I rate Houston to win this game by double digits, meaning TEM will play very fast with the potential to get pass happy.
#2: A pass happy Temple does not equal a successful passing game for Temple in this match-up, by any means. However, Temple's passing game has improved sequentially in every game this year (by my ratings), which is a favorable factor.
#3: Houston started off the season as a pass happy super unsuccessful offense. In their last three games, however, they've found their run game and a more balanced offense. There's no reason to believe that their offense won't continue to play at its improved level against a mediocre Temple defense.
Temple has been one of the luckiest teams in football this year when measuring yards gained vs. points scored both for and against.........
Oh sheesh, the line moved back up to 50 while I'm writing this. I'll finish it later.
No, I never like when the line moves against me, because it potentially means there is a factor I'm not handicapping that is strongly influencing the market. Not always, but frequently. I think in the case of this game it is injuries. If VT can field a couple of good running backs I still like them, but it looks like they are pretty thin there right now. I'd still make a play on them, but just a smaller one like I recommend.
This statistics alone so far this year don't suggest a play on the UTAH @ ORST game. Looking at all of the individual games played, though, suggests Utah should win, imo. They had solid games against two above average teams, Michigan and UCLA. On the minus side UTAH did choke away a big lead at home versus a one dimension and over-all average WSU squad. I'm not sure how or why, but that was the only sub-par rush defense performance Utah has had this year -- yeah, against a terrible running team.
ORST was beaten pretty badly versus the only above average team they played, USC, but that was the only game where they were without the services of their top WR Victor Bolden.
I guess, for the sake of action, I'll roll with Utah. ORST hasn't proven they can compete with good teams yet, while UTAH has proven they can beat better teams than ORST on the road.
Adding for 1/2 unit: UTAH -2 @ ORST
ORST was beaten pretty badly versus the only above average team they played, USC, but that was the only game where they were without the services of their top WR Victor Bolden.
I guess, for the sake of action, I'll roll with Utah. ORST hasn't proven they can compete with good teams yet, while UTAH has proven they can beat better teams than ORST on the road.
Adding for 1/2 unit: UTAH -2 @ ORST
Good job by PITT, they had all the big scoring plays in a must win game. Those injuries did seem to make an unhealthy difference, lol, as VT never committed to the run game. I was in the unfortunate position of having to root against the original VT play near the end of the game because of the mentioned live action Under, the 2nd half Under play, and an unposted PITT Under 10.5 2nd half points, lol.
