I lean UGA as I favor them by about a touchdown. ARK playing fairly tough right now, they should've beat ALA last week.
CSU line value has passed it's prime this week. They are vulnerable against the pass, which is USU's strength. I think Aggies win a close one.
Gonna be tough to start better than 16-4 on the first two pages, lmao.
No totals really worth playing on the pre-Saturday games, right now, got my eye on only one line if it moves.
Yeah, those are all down now because of QB issues. TULN starter is "?", but based on limited stats from his backup, the backup is no worse. UTSA has had to shuffle QBs and they've all been at about the same level of mediocrity. FSU's Winston is planning on playing in spite of an upcoming disciplinary hearing, but I guess the books are going to wait and see, as there seems to be no greater team MVP than Winston right now.
I'm wondering if you've noticed any trend on how you do when the line doesn't move as you expect. I'm sure every once in a while a line goes the opposite way you predict--do those plays present any either extra or diminished value that you've been able to track?
Thanks a lot for all the work you put into this!
Thanks a lot for all the work you put into this!
Always respect the market, I say. Most of the time the market will move in accordance with the "basic" statistical match-up data. On those occasions where the market moves against the data (not small early fluctuations, but gradual during the week leading up to the closing number) my confidence in the play goes down. In the past I've sometime taken a stand against the market move and bought more data-driven value, but more often than not, I think (haven't kept official track), it was the market that ended up being right. A good example of this was me liking Wyoming last week, only to see the market go the other way during the week. Hawaii ended up being the right side as they dominated the second half. Was it the intangibles or an unusual data interpretation that the market saw that I didn't? Sometimes you can take a big early position on data value knowing that you'll pick up market value during the week, even if the data doesn't tell an accurate story. Case in point CAL and WVU last week, who both had enormous data value in the match ups that didn't materialize on the field (lucky to cash WVU getting the opening number). I think that is a semi-early in the season phenomenon. This week that is happening with KSU (though I missed the "pre-opening opening line" of +12, I didn't see the line until it was at +9.5 but still felt the number was going to come down), BC and M-OH. There's been 1.5, 1.5 and 1 point of line movement on those three, respectively.
Good question and answer on line movement.....I am taking it that when the market moves with you, that there is a higher prevalence of pointspread success.
You have my Gophers at number 20?....that is amazing! Despite the fact that they get out-yarded almost every game and their offense is simpler than the offense I quarterbacked in 6th grade, they should be at 7-1 after the next two weeks....then things get interesting when they play the Pig Farmers, the Buckeyes, the Milk Men and the Corn Boys....winning two of them would be considered a very good year by Minny standards.
You have my Gophers at number 20?....that is amazing! Despite the fact that they get out-yarded almost every game and their offense is simpler than the offense I quarterbacked in 6th grade, they should be at 7-1 after the next two weeks....then things get interesting when they play the Pig Farmers, the Buckeyes, the Milk Men and the Corn Boys....winning two of them would be considered a very good year by Minny standards.
Those Gophers, they really like to shorten the game utilizing the clock and an obviously run-heavy offense. I rank their defense at #13, primarily because of their pass defense, who have kept opponents well under their passing averages every game this year. I still rank their offense at #43, in spite of the low number of total yards of offense per game. They have a good yards per carry and somewhat below average yards per pass average. Fun fact -- pass yards per game has zero correlation to winning games in all games played this year.
