The inverse EV to win % of last week is A: taken from a very small sample. B: still a profitable % across all units played groups, so not that big of a variance. C: Completely due to narrowly losing (all by less than a score) most of the 1 unit Under plays -- and I'll tell you this, I try to keep my average total about .5 points below the average market total. This year (starting late, just a couple weeks ago), heading into last week, I'd noticed that my average total was about 1.5 points below the average market total. This week I made an adjustment to bump my totals up to the range where I like, and now my totals are extremely close to the market, which led me to wager on some smaller EV than usual plays on totals this week, for better or worse (we'll see how they do Saturday, some of those 1/2 unit plays were for as little as 3 points difference between my line and the market line). So, my totals running a little low plus bad luck in close finishes (all winning totals were by more than a touchdown, all losing totals by less than a touchdown) and a stupid amount of 2nd half points scored in many of those losses added up to a bad run on the game Unders last week, which skews the small sample set.
I want to see if I can make adjustments to where nothing truly surprises me, lol. Remember, my lines are set by a process that I've worked on for a dozen+ seasons between NFL and NCAA.
