Up until a little after the halfway mark of the season I just add 3 points for HFA. After that I start using home/away splits to move that number up and down. One thing I've wondered is why I end up backing so many more visiting teams than home teams, it's always been that way. The books must be giving 5 or 6 points to HFA, lol.
Those power rankings are a work in process, I'll be tinkering with them throughout the year. I may soon incorporate drive efficiency (both offensive and defensive) like FootballOutsiders do (I used to use the FO ratings for early season baseline ratings, though later in the season it seemed lines set with my methods worked better than using their ratings at all.)
I know The Gold Sheet from way back when, looks like the same outfit, eh?
Those power rankings are a work in process, I'll be tinkering with them throughout the year. I may soon incorporate drive efficiency (both offensive and defensive) like FootballOutsiders do (I used to use the FO ratings for early season baseline ratings, though later in the season it seemed lines set with my methods worked better than using their ratings at all.)
I know The Gold Sheet from way back when, looks like the same outfit, eh?
Also I should mention that I don't like this week's card nearly as much as last week's, so if you're going to follow I hope you stuck to the smaller bet sizes I recommended. Every now and then the card for a week doesn't offer a lot of full one unit or better games. Hopefully this week's card is not a trend.
I've always liked 2nd half plays, and this year they've been my best performers so far, so I reckon I'll be parked at the computer for most of tomorrow looking at halftime boxes and making plays.
I've always liked 2nd half plays, and this year they've been my best performers so far, so I reckon I'll be parked at the computer for most of tomorrow looking at halftime boxes and making plays.
After looking at individual games I'm making the following action play tonight:
1/2 Unit: BSU -9.5 (-130) & Over 31.5 (-105) 1st half parlay to win 1.2 units.
This game has the potential to be a crush n' cruise. BSU can crush FRES with the pass in the first half, then run the ball a lot in the 2nd half with the lead (but not well enough to produce as many scoring drives as the first half). Against the below average defenses they've faced, BSU has averaged 25.5 first half points. The one kink in this play is the fact that FRES has been an extremely slow starting team this year, doing the bulk of their scoring in the 2nd half. FRES doesn't rate to have a great day offensively, but they have enough offensive balance in the match ups that they should get some scores.
1st half score prediction: FRES 10 -- BSU 24
Final score prediction: FRES 24 -- BSU 38
1/2 Unit: BSU -9.5 (-130) & Over 31.5 (-105) 1st half parlay to win 1.2 units.
This game has the potential to be a crush n' cruise. BSU can crush FRES with the pass in the first half, then run the ball a lot in the 2nd half with the lead (but not well enough to produce as many scoring drives as the first half). Against the below average defenses they've faced, BSU has averaged 25.5 first half points. The one kink in this play is the fact that FRES has been an extremely slow starting team this year, doing the bulk of their scoring in the 2nd half. FRES doesn't rate to have a great day offensively, but they have enough offensive balance in the match ups that they should get some scores.
1st half score prediction: FRES 10 -- BSU 24
Final score prediction: FRES 24 -- BSU 38
According to a guy in another thread, since I graduated college "last century" I'm a "geezer." LOL Being such, I can't read your fine print <grin> , whatcha got on the total in the Cougs/Owls tilt tonight? Itching to play the over, but gut isn't with me. Thx.
~T~
Hell, see ya playin O48+, line is now 52+, thoughts? Man, you must hit these things as soon as they're off the griddle, lol.
~T~
Hell, see ya playin O48+, line is now 52+, thoughts? Man, you must hit these things as soon as they're off the griddle, lol.
Hehe. Line opened at 50 with the other weekday games, all of which mostly sat untouched until the other lines came out. Then the total bounced down to 48.5 briefly, back up to 49.5 for a good window of time, then 50, until the bigger move over the last day. I think there's still value on Over 52.5.
Grrr, missed the first half parlay by one stalled BSU drive. On the plus side, pick 6 Houston! Usually on the wrong side of those non-offensive scores when on both a side and total, lol.
No 2nd half play, the first half went exactly as scripted, minus the 3 or 4 more point BSU failed to get with 9 minutes left in the half. If I were to play I'd go FRES +7.5 small.
No 2nd half play, the first half went exactly as scripted, minus the 3 or 4 more point BSU failed to get with 9 minutes left in the half. If I were to play I'd go FRES +7.5 small.
