Adding for 1 Unit: CMU @ SYR Over 45 (-105)
Syracuse showed vulnerability to the pass last week, the one thing CMU does well on offense. Syracuse hit a couple long balls with their new freshman QB, and now he gets another full week of practice and a home game. Both of these teams play at a really slow pace offensively, but with the match ups favoring the offenses a little more than the defenses, I'll take a shot at this low number. A word of warning, though -- any time I played a Syracuse Over last year it was basically just lighting my money on fire, lol. Still, I like this one.
Syracuse showed vulnerability to the pass last week, the one thing CMU does well on offense. Syracuse hit a couple long balls with their new freshman QB, and now he gets another full week of practice and a home game. Both of these teams play at a really slow pace offensively, but with the match ups favoring the offenses a little more than the defenses, I'll take a shot at this low number. A word of warning, though -- any time I played a Syracuse Over last year it was basically just lighting my money on fire, lol. Still, I like this one.
My Week 3 lines. Some larger than usual discrepancies between my lines and the market this week. I'd attribute that to it being a tough transition week finding the balance between valuing last year's play and this year's for every team out there. Still, I expect the lines overall to start morphing toward mine as we get closer to Saturday.
A master list of week #3 plays:
1 Unit:
FLA -3 @ UK
FAU PICK VS BUFF
CLEM @ LOU UNDER 54
NIU @ OSU OVER 64.5
TROY @ WIS UNDER 58.5
NW @ DUKE UNDER 49.5
ECU @ NAVY OVER 60
MISS @ ALA OVER 49
VT @ PUR UNDER 49
UTSA @ OKST UNDER 54
USU @ WASH UNDER 47
WKU @ IND OVER 67
UTEP @ NMSU UNDER 62.5
SOAL @ SDSU UNDER 48.5
STAN @ USC OVER 51.5
AFA @ MSU UNDER 60.5
CMU @ SYR OVER 45
1/2 UNIT:
NW +3 @ DUKE
UNM +28 @ ASU
NEV +32.5 @ TA&M
TROY +35.5 @ WIS
TEX +7 VS CAL
AUB +7.5 & LSU -6.5
LOU +5.5 VS CLEM
WASH -5.5 VS USU
UGA -17 VS SCAR
BALL -6.5 @ EMU
ALA -6.5 VS MISS
PSU -9.5 VS RUTG
MSU -26 VS AFA
FRES +15.5 VS UTAH
BYU +17 @ UCLA
SMU +36 (EV) @ TCU
CONN +21.5 @ MIZZ
KENT @ MINN UNDER 48.5
RICE @ UNT UNDER 47
SCAR @ UGA OVER 54
NEB @ MIA OVER 57.5
GT @ ND OVER 59
TTU @ ARK OVER 64.5
USF @ MD UNDER 52.5
SJSU @ ORST UNDER 52.5
BYU @ UCLA UNDER 60
SMU @ TCU UNDER 67
FSU @ BC OVER 51
FSU @ BC OVER 46.5
WAKE @ ARMY OVER 47
UNLV @ MICH UNDER 49.5
WYO @ WSU OVER 60
CONN @ MIZZ UNDER 41.5
I updated the first post of this thread with a master list of this week's plays. You'll notice that some of the plays were made on slim values versus my actual lines, or even against them. On most of these it was because I looked at additional factors and decided that if I could get a certain number or better when the lines opened I would still make a play on my lean. On a few of the plays I made enough changes to a team's projections based on this year's stats that I don't necessarily like the position on that game anymore. If you have any question about certain lines or plays, feel free to ask.
1 Unit:
FLA -3 @ UK
FAU PICK VS BUFF
CLEM @ LOU UNDER 54
NIU @ OSU OVER 64.5
TROY @ WIS UNDER 58.5
NW @ DUKE UNDER 49.5
ECU @ NAVY OVER 60
MISS @ ALA OVER 49
VT @ PUR UNDER 49
UTSA @ OKST UNDER 54
USU @ WASH UNDER 47
WKU @ IND OVER 67
UTEP @ NMSU UNDER 62.5
SOAL @ SDSU UNDER 48.5
STAN @ USC OVER 51.5
AFA @ MSU UNDER 60.5
CMU @ SYR OVER 45
1/2 UNIT:
NW +3 @ DUKE
UNM +28 @ ASU
NEV +32.5 @ TA&M
TROY +35.5 @ WIS
TEX +7 VS CAL
AUB +7.5 & LSU -6.5
LOU +5.5 VS CLEM
WASH -5.5 VS USU
UGA -17 VS SCAR
BALL -6.5 @ EMU
ALA -6.5 VS MISS
PSU -9.5 VS RUTG
MSU -26 VS AFA
FRES +15.5 VS UTAH
BYU +17 @ UCLA
SMU +36 (EV) @ TCU
CONN +21.5 @ MIZZ
KENT @ MINN UNDER 48.5
RICE @ UNT UNDER 47
SCAR @ UGA OVER 54
NEB @ MIA OVER 57.5
GT @ ND OVER 59
TTU @ ARK OVER 64.5
USF @ MD UNDER 52.5
SJSU @ ORST UNDER 52.5
BYU @ UCLA UNDER 60
SMU @ TCU UNDER 67
FSU @ BC OVER 51
FSU @ BC OVER 46.5
WAKE @ ARMY OVER 47
UNLV @ MICH UNDER 49.5
WYO @ WSU OVER 60
CONN @ MIZZ UNDER 41.5
I updated the first post of this thread with a master list of this week's plays. You'll notice that some of the plays were made on slim values versus my actual lines, or even against them. On most of these it was because I looked at additional factors and decided that if I could get a certain number or better when the lines opened I would still make a play on my lean. On a few of the plays I made enough changes to a team's projections based on this year's stats that I don't necessarily like the position on that game anymore. If you have any question about certain lines or plays, feel free to ask.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: USM @ TXST Under 67
Going with some steam created value here. USM plays at a pretty slow pace, TXST a bit uptempo. I like being on the right side of 66 here, with 35-31 the most likely score in the neighborhood. A small point, but hey, lol. Neither team is showing much in the way of defensive improvement this year, and USM has definitely gained ground on TXST in the passing offense department (though they put up pretty poor numbers against an FCS team last week). TXST stayed under this # in 7 of 11 FBS games last year, USM 8 of 11. It would take at least one team in the 40s or both into the mid+ 30s for this to go Over 67. USM had a season best 31 in FBS games last year, while TXST got to the mid 30s on a fairly regular basis, but mostly against the very worst defenses the Sun Belt has to offer. I can only guess that this number has sky-rocketed because of the 75 and 87 point games TXST has played -- but those match ups just don't exist in this game.
Going with some steam created value here. USM plays at a pretty slow pace, TXST a bit uptempo. I like being on the right side of 66 here, with 35-31 the most likely score in the neighborhood. A small point, but hey, lol. Neither team is showing much in the way of defensive improvement this year, and USM has definitely gained ground on TXST in the passing offense department (though they put up pretty poor numbers against an FCS team last week). TXST stayed under this # in 7 of 11 FBS games last year, USM 8 of 11. It would take at least one team in the 40s or both into the mid+ 30s for this to go Over 67. USM had a season best 31 in FBS games last year, while TXST got to the mid 30s on a fairly regular basis, but mostly against the very worst defenses the Sun Belt has to offer. I can only guess that this number has sky-rocketed because of the 75 and 87 point games TXST has played -- but those match ups just don't exist in this game.
