"Georgia covered only three of its 12 meetings with Steve Spurrier-coached Florida teams, and has managed only two covers in 10 tries since the Head Ball Coach arrived in Columbia."
from Hache Man Thread (ESPN INSIDER) http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1029135
I like the style of the thread as well, cloverleaf does this Yells at people like a petulant child. Water off a Duck's back bro. It don't mean a thing. His outburst don't represent the general feeling.
Spurrier may hate Georgia and have a good ATS record against them, but I'm not sure the correlation is causation, lol. I'm not a believer in magic switches that can be turned on and suddenly one team has a sudden advantage that they normally don't have. I tell you what, though -- if SCAR hangs around in this game maybe I'll start believing...just a little, lol.
isn't there a huge built-in fallacy in that you are blending in last year's stats with no regard for loss of players? in essence you are using last year's stats when some teams have 25-30% roster turnover in personnel. I think using blended rating would need almost all the same players from previous year to be effective. how do you account for coaching changes?
No, I've made some formulas to adjust last year's stats for returning personnel, recruiting ranks, regression to the mean, and if the head coach is new or in his 2nd year. They aren't super drastic alterations, though. Right now I'm going through each team right now and if a team is seemingly much better or worse at something so far this year I'm adjusting the stat projections even more than the 3x multiplier each game this season is applying already. As a result I'll probably be adding a few more plays, or not liking positions I currently have on plays much.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Wake Forest @ Army Over 47
We came up a score short of the Over on the Army v. UConn game last week on nearly the same number as this game. Wake's passing game looks much improved this year and should be able to exploit Army's weakening pass defense even more than UConn did. Wake's rush defense was about the same as UConn's last year -- somewhat below average, while their pass defense gave up a couple of huge plays to Syracuse last week, so Army should rate to have okay success against them and might hit a surprise long ball score through the air like they did against UConn.
It's a work in a progress to figure out the best way to make good lines for the first month. So far the market has been prone to value this season's one or two games more than I have. You have to figure that if you're looking for hidden value that's the way to go. Being a numbers guy, for me the hidden value is in the sum of all the data, generally, lol.
