Thx, alki, same to you!
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UNLV +34 @ MICH
UNLV QB Decker has been upgraded to probable. That obviously takes away some of the value on the Under 49.5 play, but it's worth riding out if you got down on it.
UNLV was projected to be one of, it not the worst team in the FBS this year. I tell you what, though, it looks like they're playing hard. They challenged at NIU into the 2nd half, and in spite of losing their QB early in the game against UCLA they never gave up defensively, in spite of being shut out until very late in the game. They've been able to run the ball a bit and Decker, when healthy, has been okay.
Michigan is just not a team built for a lot of scoring. After giving up a touchdown to ORST on the Beavers first drive, Michigan limited ORST to just one (or none? I think it was one) first down the rest of the game. So, in spite of having the ball basically the entire game against an average defense they barely cracked 400+ yards and scored 35 points. This tells me that UNLV won't have to do much at all on offense to have a chance at covering. Yes, UNLV's defense rates to be much worse than ORST's, but like I said, they are showing some effort. They limited UCLA Rosen to just 5.3 ypp (in his first career road game, it's true). Against ORST Michigan just ran the ball a lot, sitting on that healthy lead. They ran it 48 times and passed it just 26. It's not likely they'll stray much from that script in this game.
I'm not saying it's going to happen, but this is one of those games where there's an outside chance of the big dog not scoring any points at all but still covers. I've called a couple of those successfully in the past, lol.
Final Score Prediction: UNLV 13 -- Michigan 34
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UNLV +34 @ MICH
UNLV QB Decker has been upgraded to probable. That obviously takes away some of the value on the Under 49.5 play, but it's worth riding out if you got down on it.
UNLV was projected to be one of, it not the worst team in the FBS this year. I tell you what, though, it looks like they're playing hard. They challenged at NIU into the 2nd half, and in spite of losing their QB early in the game against UCLA they never gave up defensively, in spite of being shut out until very late in the game. They've been able to run the ball a bit and Decker, when healthy, has been okay.
Michigan is just not a team built for a lot of scoring. After giving up a touchdown to ORST on the Beavers first drive, Michigan limited ORST to just one (or none? I think it was one) first down the rest of the game. So, in spite of having the ball basically the entire game against an average defense they barely cracked 400+ yards and scored 35 points. This tells me that UNLV won't have to do much at all on offense to have a chance at covering. Yes, UNLV's defense rates to be much worse than ORST's, but like I said, they are showing some effort. They limited UCLA Rosen to just 5.3 ypp (in his first career road game, it's true). Against ORST Michigan just ran the ball a lot, sitting on that healthy lead. They ran it 48 times and passed it just 26. It's not likely they'll stray much from that script in this game.
I'm not saying it's going to happen, but this is one of those games where there's an outside chance of the big dog not scoring any points at all but still covers. I've called a couple of those successfully in the past, lol.
Final Score Prediction: UNLV 13 -- Michigan 34
+1.5 units last night hitting both the side and total in the CLEM @ LOU game. I had to sweat the late LOU FG attempt that probably would've sent that game to OT. I had the Over in both games that went to OT last week, and neither game still managed to get there, lol. Those were two of my weaker plays last week, as it turned out.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: NMSU +3 vs UTEP
Dumpster Fire Divination: Handicapping the Shittiest Game of the Week
UTEP @ New Mexico State
I'm thinking of starting a weekly handicapping exercise based on picking through the stankiest game of the week, pan handling for profit. Last week I more or less did that with my detailed break down of the Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming game, in which I recommended taking both EMU and the Over. Success!
This week we'll leave Laramie, drive down through Colorado and most of New Mexico until we arrive in Las Cruces. Just across the border from Las Cruces is El Paso. Here in the geographical anus of America is a little non-conference rivalry game for bragging rights of who'll be the wiper, and who'll be the stain.
Both of these teams have started the season playing like the product that ends up at the bottom end of the food chain.
UTEP opened with a 35 point loss at Arkansas and a 49 point loss at Texas Tech. Arkansas, of course, followed that game up with a home loss to Toledo. UTEP has also lost their top running back Aaron Jones for the season now. Without him the second half last week they managed a measly 3 points against what must have been the back half of the depth charts for Texas Tech, defensively. I shudder to think how poorly a group of defenders not good enough to start for TTU would do against nearly any other college football team.
New Mexico State had an encouraging start to their season when they managed to score 13 points in the second quarter at Florida. That might be more than any other team scores in the second quarter at Florida all season. We shall see! Unfortunately for NMSU, they also allowed 27 points in that second quarter, and I'm not sure they managed a single first down in the second half of that game, while surrendering a grand total of 61 points to the Gators when the swamp dust had cleared. And then last week NMSU lost at home to Georgia State, giving them their first FBS road win ever. Hell, it was only GAST's second FBS win ever, period! Embarrassing, to say the least.
Last year you had to automatically assume there was value on the Under when UTEP played, and that play was rewarded time after time. They prefer to run and play incredibly slow on offense, and this year they've been no different -- the slowest team by far. Playing against their polar opposite in Texas Tech last week I passed on the Under, which ended up being wise. This week I fired at the Under 62.5 when the lines opened...and then watched with some incredulity as the number went as high as 65 by the next day. This didn't jive with my early numbers. This is the time of year that requires some manual adjustments based on the limited number of games a team has played so far this year, balancing that with last year's stats. After making the adjustments for these two teams I could see why there was some initial action on the Over. My updated O/U line for the game is 63.9. This number shifted upward because both teams are playing even lousier defense than projected, and NMSU's passing game looks a bit better this year. Also, after playing at an average pace in the week one blowout loss to Florida, the Aggies stepped up the pace in the close loss to GAST, averaging 21 seconds per play, which is definitely faster than average.
With UTEP losing RB Jones and being the road team, combined with NMSU's improved passing, I give the small edge to NMSU to win outright as the small home dog. I wouldn't play the total, especially now that has dropped down to 61 or so, but I can live with the Under play in a game with UTEP and two less than stellar offenses, even with defenses as poor as these two have been.
I would recommend a small play on the New Mexico State Aggies, though, at +3.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: NMSU +3 vs UTEP
Dumpster Fire Divination: Handicapping the Shittiest Game of the Week
UTEP @ New Mexico State
I'm thinking of starting a weekly handicapping exercise based on picking through the stankiest game of the week, pan handling for profit. Last week I more or less did that with my detailed break down of the Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming game, in which I recommended taking both EMU and the Over. Success!
This week we'll leave Laramie, drive down through Colorado and most of New Mexico until we arrive in Las Cruces. Just across the border from Las Cruces is El Paso. Here in the geographical anus of America is a little non-conference rivalry game for bragging rights of who'll be the wiper, and who'll be the stain.
Both of these teams have started the season playing like the product that ends up at the bottom end of the food chain.
UTEP opened with a 35 point loss at Arkansas and a 49 point loss at Texas Tech. Arkansas, of course, followed that game up with a home loss to Toledo. UTEP has also lost their top running back Aaron Jones for the season now. Without him the second half last week they managed a measly 3 points against what must have been the back half of the depth charts for Texas Tech, defensively. I shudder to think how poorly a group of defenders not good enough to start for TTU would do against nearly any other college football team.
New Mexico State had an encouraging start to their season when they managed to score 13 points in the second quarter at Florida. That might be more than any other team scores in the second quarter at Florida all season. We shall see! Unfortunately for NMSU, they also allowed 27 points in that second quarter, and I'm not sure they managed a single first down in the second half of that game, while surrendering a grand total of 61 points to the Gators when the swamp dust had cleared. And then last week NMSU lost at home to Georgia State, giving them their first FBS road win ever. Hell, it was only GAST's second FBS win ever, period! Embarrassing, to say the least.
Last year you had to automatically assume there was value on the Under when UTEP played, and that play was rewarded time after time. They prefer to run and play incredibly slow on offense, and this year they've been no different -- the slowest team by far. Playing against their polar opposite in Texas Tech last week I passed on the Under, which ended up being wise. This week I fired at the Under 62.5 when the lines opened...and then watched with some incredulity as the number went as high as 65 by the next day. This didn't jive with my early numbers. This is the time of year that requires some manual adjustments based on the limited number of games a team has played so far this year, balancing that with last year's stats. After making the adjustments for these two teams I could see why there was some initial action on the Over. My updated O/U line for the game is 63.9. This number shifted upward because both teams are playing even lousier defense than projected, and NMSU's passing game looks a bit better this year. Also, after playing at an average pace in the week one blowout loss to Florida, the Aggies stepped up the pace in the close loss to GAST, averaging 21 seconds per play, which is definitely faster than average.
With UTEP losing RB Jones and being the road team, combined with NMSU's improved passing, I give the small edge to NMSU to win outright as the small home dog. I wouldn't play the total, especially now that has dropped down to 61 or so, but I can live with the Under play in a game with UTEP and two less than stellar offenses, even with defenses as poor as these two have been.
I would recommend a small play on the New Mexico State Aggies, though, at +3.
