OK, let's pretend it's Doug Pederson's Jacksonville Jaguars who are down by 14 points at the start of the fourth quarter. They score a touchdown to cut the deficit to eight and have two options: kick the extra point to make it a 7-point game, or try for a 2-point conversion to cut it to 6. Considering league averages, let's make a few assumptions about what happens next:
- The Jaguars are going to score another touchdown before the end of the game, and that touchdown will be the only remaining score in regulation.
- The Jaguars expect to successfully kick PATs 94% of the time and convert 2-point conversions 48% of the time -- which are the league average rates since 2015.
- The Jaguars expect to win half of the time in overtime.
So let's say the Jaguars follow our advice and attempt a 2-point conversion on the first touchdown. Here are the four ways the game can go, along with the percentage chance of each occurring:- Convert on the 2-point attempt, successfully kick an extra point after the second touchdown and win: 45%
- Convert on the 2-point attempt but miss the extra point and tie in regulation: 3%
- Fail on the first 2-point attempt but succeed on the second and tie in regulation: 25%
- Fail on both 2-point attempts and lose: 27%
That leaves Jacksonville with a 45% chance to win, a 28% chance to tie in regulation and a 27% chance to lose the game. Since teams win half their overtime games, we'll add 14% to both the winning and losing sides. The result? The Jaguars have a 59% chance to win and a 41% chance to lose, assuming they score again and stop their opponent from scoring.
- Fail on both 2-point attempts and lose: 27%
- Fail on the first 2-point attempt but succeed on the second and tie in regulation: 25%
- Convert on the 2-point attempt but miss the extra point and tie in regulation: 3%
- Convert on the 2-point attempt, successfully kick an extra point after the second touchdown and win: 45%
- The Jaguars expect to win half of the time in overtime.
- The Jaguars expect to successfully kick PATs 94% of the time and convert 2-point conversions 48% of the time -- which are the league average rates since 2015.
The analysis is interesting, and if and when I see this universally accepted in the NFL by just about all coaches, I will accept it.
The immediate questions that come to mind are these:
1) in what percentage of the stats cited, have the games been playoff games??
I cited this because as a person who had a strong minor in college statistics, one needs to consider the sample size to unequivocally
state that the sample size is large enough to make the findings valid and reliable!!
2) Also one would have to know if there have been any kind of rule changes between 2015 and now that could in any way have an
impact on whether one goes for one or two;this definitely applies to overtime rules in NFL Playoff games which I am prety
sure have changed.
3) Also, one would have to do a cross-sample of all of the games under what conditions in the game itself two-point conversions
were tried, ie when in the game they were tried, the score at the time, the importance of winning each time relative
to their won and lost record(regular season game or playoff game), etc and a ton of other factors that need to be
considered before simply relying on stats only to arrive at a valid conclusion if that is the right terminology.
Imo a one-game elimination such as was the case today should result in a different type of thinking than in some
of the situations described above.
Also in what percentage of times of a similar situation did the home team go for two points as opposed
to visiting teams??
Most importantly the situation described above comes down to the coach's call which I guarantee is not the same
for all coaches!!
I could go on but am going to chow down now that it is halftime!!
The immediate questions that come to mind are these:
1) in what percentage of the stats cited, have the games been playoff games??
I cited this because as a person who had a strong minor in college statistics, one needs to consider the sample size to unequivocally
state that the sample size is large enough to make the findings valid and reliable!!
2) Also one would have to know if there have been any kind of rule changes between 2015 and now that could in any way have an
impact on whether one goes for one or two;this definitely applies to overtime rules in NFL Playoff games which I am prety
sure have changed.
3) Also, one would have to do a cross-sample of all of the games under what conditions in the game itself two-point conversions
were tried, ie when in the game they were tried, the score at the time, the importance of winning each time relative
to their won and lost record(regular season game or playoff game), etc and a ton of other factors that need to be
considered before simply relying on stats only to arrive at a valid conclusion if that is the right terminology.
Imo a one-game elimination such as was the case today should result in a different type of thinking than in some
of the situations described above.
Also in what percentage of times of a similar situation did the home team go for two points as opposed
to visiting teams??
Most importantly the situation described above comes down to the coach's call which I guarantee is not the same
for all coaches!!
I could go on but am going to chow down now that it is halftime!!
The average person doesn't realize how many dimes Lang steals when grading games. This weekend alone his grading / scamming saved himself 30 dimes. He's graded 150 and 200 dime games that should be losses or pushes as wins many times. Being conservative his records on the site and claims are off a minimum of 600-800 dimes a year.
Lang couldn't flip right two weekends in a row lol
The Pick: My 50 Dime winner is Stony Brook.
The Line: The current line is +4 1/2 in Vegas and offshore as of 11:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Update: At 1:30 pm EST, the line is +3 1/2.
My Analysis
Live home dog tonight.
Stony Brook returns home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS.
However, with a few breaks late, it could have been 3-0.
They lost at Towson in OT 73-64, won at William & Mary 63-59 and lost a tough one at Delaware 71-68.
Since their 60-59 loss at home to Wagner, they have gone 7-4 SU but a money making 9-2 ATS.
They have won 6 of their 8 home games this year.
As for Hofstra, they are struggling.
Over their last 10 games they are 3-7 SU and ATS.
You dig a little deeper and you will find they have lost 6 straight road games.
The reason the Pride are struggling is beyond their two leading scorers (Tyler Thomas 22 ppg and Darlinstone Dubar (18 ppg) not much help is there.
I like what I am seeing from Stony Brook right now and it wouldn't surprise me if they won the game outright.
This doggy barks loud and clear tonight .
The Line: The current line is +4 1/2 in Vegas and offshore as of 11:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Update: At 1:30 pm EST, the line is +3 1/2.
My Analysis
Live home dog tonight.
Stony Brook returns home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS.
However, with a few breaks late, it could have been 3-0.
They lost at Towson in OT 73-64, won at William & Mary 63-59 and lost a tough one at Delaware 71-68.
Since their 60-59 loss at home to Wagner, they have gone 7-4 SU but a money making 9-2 ATS.
They have won 6 of their 8 home games this year.
As for Hofstra, they are struggling.
Over their last 10 games they are 3-7 SU and ATS.
You dig a little deeper and you will find they have lost 6 straight road games.
The reason the Pride are struggling is beyond their two leading scorers (Tyler Thomas 22 ppg and Darlinstone Dubar (18 ppg) not much help is there.
I like what I am seeing from Stony Brook right now and it wouldn't surprise me if they won the game outright.
This doggy barks loud and clear tonight .
LOSER LANG 2024 BANKROLL
NEGATIVE 395 DIMES
LANG $10 BETTOR DOWN $3,950 (PLUS $1,995 Yearly Fee For Picks = -$5,945)
PAID PICKS: 10-11 / 47.6%
-Lang by Month-
JAN: 10-11 -395 DIMES
-Lang by Week-
WEEK 00: 12/26 to 1/1, (4W-3L) +117.5 DIMES (0W-1L -165 Dimes from 1/1 to 1/1)
WEEK 01: 1/2 to 1/8, (3W-4L) -272.5 DIMES
WEEK 02: 1/9 to 1/15, (6W-1L) +565 DIMES
WEEK 03: 1/16 to 1/22, (1W-5L) -522.5 DIMES
NEGATIVE 395 DIMES
LANG $10 BETTOR DOWN $3,950 (PLUS $1,995 Yearly Fee For Picks = -$5,945)
PAID PICKS: 10-11 / 47.6%
-Lang by Month-
JAN: 10-11 -395 DIMES
-Lang by Week-
WEEK 00: 12/26 to 1/1, (4W-3L) +117.5 DIMES (0W-1L -165 Dimes from 1/1 to 1/1)
WEEK 01: 1/2 to 1/8, (3W-4L) -272.5 DIMES
WEEK 02: 1/9 to 1/15, (6W-1L) +565 DIMES
WEEK 03: 1/16 to 1/22, (1W-5L) -522.5 DIMES
LOSER LANG TRACKER (IN-SEASON SPORTS)
NFL PRE-SEASON (2023-'24)
2-4, -240 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
100 DIME: 0-1
75 DIME: 1-2
60 DIME: 0-1
50 DIME: 1-0
NFL REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
24-22-1, -113.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 4-2
150 DIME: 3-3
100 DIME: 3-8-1
80 DIME: 2-0
75 DIME: 7-5
60 DIME: 3-1
50 DIME: 2-3
NFL PLAYOFFS (2023-'24)
3-2, +100 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-1
150 DIME: 1-0
100 DIME: 1-1
COLLEGE FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
23-20, -245.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-4
150 DIME: 6-2
100 DIME: 3-1
80 DIME: 2-2
75 DIME: 6-9
60 DIME: 1-0
50 DIME: 2-2
40 DIME: 2-0
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL SEASON (2023-'24)
3-5, -517.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 0-1
150 DIME: 1-3
100 DIME: 1-0
75 DIME: 1-1
COLLEGE HOOPS REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
16-9, +609 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-0
100 DIME: 3-2
75 DIME: 9-4
60 DIME: 1-2
50 DIME: 2-0
40 DIME: 0-1
NBA REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
1-4, -236 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
100 DIME: 0-1
60 DIME: 0-1
50 DIME: 1-2
NFL PRE-SEASON (2023-'24)
2-4, -240 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
100 DIME: 0-1
75 DIME: 1-2
60 DIME: 0-1
50 DIME: 1-0
NFL REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
24-22-1, -113.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 4-2
150 DIME: 3-3
100 DIME: 3-8-1
80 DIME: 2-0
75 DIME: 7-5
60 DIME: 3-1
50 DIME: 2-3
NFL PLAYOFFS (2023-'24)
3-2, +100 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-1
150 DIME: 1-0
100 DIME: 1-1
COLLEGE FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
23-20, -245.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-4
150 DIME: 6-2
100 DIME: 3-1
80 DIME: 2-2
75 DIME: 6-9
60 DIME: 1-0
50 DIME: 2-2
40 DIME: 2-0
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL SEASON (2023-'24)
3-5, -517.5 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 0-1
150 DIME: 1-3
100 DIME: 1-0
75 DIME: 1-1
COLLEGE HOOPS REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
16-9, +609 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
200 DIME: 1-0
100 DIME: 3-2
75 DIME: 9-4
60 DIME: 1-2
50 DIME: 2-0
40 DIME: 0-1
NBA REGULAR SEASON (2023-'24)
1-4, -236 Dimes
DIME RATINGS
100 DIME: 0-1
60 DIME: 0-1
50 DIME: 1-2
LOSER LANG 11+ YEAR RECORD TRACKER
1/01/2013 up to NOW!!!
NEGATIVE 11,149.75 DIMES
LANG $10 BETTOR DOWN $111,497.5 (PLUS $1,995 Yearly Fee For Picks x12 = -$135,437.5)
-Lang Past 11+ Years-
2024: NEGATIVE 395 DIMES (01/01/24 to 01/21/24)
2023: NEGATIVE 1,901.25 DIMES
2022: NEGATIVE 1,586.5 DIMES
2021: NEGATIVE 1,524.5 DIMES
2020: POSITIVE* 402.5 DIMES (*NOT A FULL YEAR DUE TO COVID)
2019: NEGATIVE 761.75 DIMES
2018: NEGATIVE 738 DIMES
2017: NEGATIVE 499.5 DIMES
2016: NEGATIVE 2,941.5 DIMES
2015: NEGATIVE 181 DIMES
2014: NEGATIVE 113.75 DIMES
2013: NEGATIVE 929 DIMES
9/01/2007 to 4/16/2010: NEGATIVE** 3,245.7 DIMES (**AS DOCUMENTED BY AL DEMARCO) (NOT INCLUDED IN ABOVE RECORD)
1/01/2013 up to NOW!!!
NEGATIVE 11,149.75 DIMES
LANG $10 BETTOR DOWN $111,497.5 (PLUS $1,995 Yearly Fee For Picks x12 = -$135,437.5)
-Lang Past 11+ Years-
2024: NEGATIVE 395 DIMES (01/01/24 to 01/21/24)
2023: NEGATIVE 1,901.25 DIMES
2022: NEGATIVE 1,586.5 DIMES
2021: NEGATIVE 1,524.5 DIMES
2020: POSITIVE* 402.5 DIMES (*NOT A FULL YEAR DUE TO COVID)
2019: NEGATIVE 761.75 DIMES
2018: NEGATIVE 738 DIMES
2017: NEGATIVE 499.5 DIMES
2016: NEGATIVE 2,941.5 DIMES
2015: NEGATIVE 181 DIMES
2014: NEGATIVE 113.75 DIMES
2013: NEGATIVE 929 DIMES
9/01/2007 to 4/16/2010: NEGATIVE** 3,245.7 DIMES (**AS DOCUMENTED BY AL DEMARCO) (NOT INCLUDED IN ABOVE RECORD)
LANG SHITS OUT: STONY BROOK +3 1/2
That was a tough pill to swallow.
Was it the Tampa missed field goal in the 2nd quarter? Was it the first 2 possessions of the 3rd quarter where Tampa got to the Lions 45 and 40 yard line and came away with nothing??
And yet, despite all that, it comes down to a 2-point conversion for the cover!!
So pissed. So disappointed. So frustrated.
For the 2nd straight year I went a perfect 3-0 in the Wild Card round but I did not foresee the 0-2 Divisional round.
The Niners on Saturday was just a bad call. They got outplayed and should not have won the game period.
But to watch Tampa march up and down the field on Detroit, to miss a field goal, to get into Lions territory twice and come away with nothing, OUCH.
Listen, I am still 3-2 in the playoffs, I am still up money. Nothing wrong with that.
But trust me, I left some money on the table and you just hate doing that.
Now it's off to College hoops for the next 6 days and considering the run I have been on the last 2 1/2 months, I will make money this week.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL RUN
16-5
$10 bettor has made $8,675
Off the winning month of December we are now rolling along in January and in position for yet another winning month.
So here we go.
Here comes 50 dime Bankroll Builder #4 out of 5 and College hoop winner 17 of 25 overall.
LFG!!!
The hoops winning streak continues today.
