My Analysis
His dream season comes to an end today.
The Joe Flacco story is a good one. Off his couch and now starting a road playoff game for the Cleveland Browns.
He is 4-1 as a starter for the Browns leading them to the playoffs but he has also thrown 8 interceptions in those 5 starts, most in the NFL by any QB since week 13.
Everyone knows the one thing you can't do in the playoffs is turn the ball over and as you see from above, Flacco is a turnover machine.
And in my opinion, in a crucial moment in today's game, he is going to make a crucial turnover that will be the difference.
Now everyone wants to talk about this Browns #1 defense and yes, this defense has been rock solid at home, but take a look at their numbers on the road.
I'm talking 26 at Pittsburgh, 38 at Indy, 24 at Seattle, 31 at Baltimore, 29 at Denver, 36 at Rams, 22 at Houston.
Throw out the 31 at Cincy week 18 because the starters didn't play.
I will force this defense to show me they can step up on the road as we clearly see from the number above, they aren't very good on the highway.
As for Houston, they survived last week at Indy, winning a game they probably should have lost, but hey, they won and they are here today.
They won 7 of 10 down the stretch to get here and with CJ Stroud back under center, they are a dangerous team, especially at home.
Since their week 2 loss at home to Indy, the Texans went 6-1 in front of the home folks with the only loss to this Joe Flacco led Cleveland team week 16 36-22.
I will note Stroud did not play as it was Case Keenum and David Mills leading the way.
The Browns are not going to beat Stroud at home today, because the soon to be rookie of the year doesn't play like a rookie.
To the numbers: Wild Card home dogs are 13-4-1 ATS since 1980 including 7-1-1 when seeking revenge.
Those numbers are good enough for me.
This home dog barks loudly this afternoon.