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Yemen is next

By Thomas P.M. Barnett

BRIEF: Al-Qaida in Yemen: Target Airports/Airplanes With Small Explosives, NEFA, October 29, 2009

On almost any case, as usual, you're going to find tracing-back evidence that says, "This loose network of inspiration/cooperation/coordination goes back to some deep Gap state." With 9/11, that was clearly Afghanistan. Going forward, the inspirational center shifted to NW Pakistan, but operationally, a certain amount of organizational capacity shifted back toward the Gulf, nearer the truly desired target of Saudi Arabia. Yemen, right next door and a longtime near/actual failing state, is not a surprising pick. Al Qaeda has roots there that go back quite a bit. Under the right conditions, we could be having a similar conversation about Somalia, but it's telling that when the U.S. forces aided Ethiopian forces going into Somalia in January 2007 (what I wrote about in "The Americans Have Landed") to drive out the AQ elements and foreign fighters, virtually all who escaped sought refuge in Yemen, where AQAP (Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula) continues to evolve. Given the already aggressive bombing campaign pursued by the Saudis a while back (along the border, as I remember, but please correct me if I underestimate), a reasonable scenario to expect might be the US pushing/aiding the Saudis in some sort of crackdown effort there. How likely is that? No idea, since the Saudis do as they please. This particular event probably isn't enough to create the impetus for a significant intervention, but it will likely lead to a bigger effort by US special forces in that area, in conjunction with the Saudis. Point of the post? Under the right scenario, Yemen is next. Again, not a surprise as many experts have been talking this possibility up for a while, along with Somalia. My particular point? AQ can almost always, if they really try, trigger some sort of US military response against the sponsoring-location-of-note. Pull the right future attack, or just keep up the appropriate drum beat of small attacks, and this conversation will expand
 

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The battle between civilized people and forces of darkness continues:

PESHAWAR, Pakistan -A suicide bomber set off an explosives-laden vehicle on a field during a volleyball tournament Friday in northwest Pakistan, killing at least 32 people and wounding more than 70, police said.

The blast occurred near Pakistan's tribal belt, and was the latest bloodshed to rattle the country since the army launched a military offensive against Taliban fighters in the South Waziristan tribal region. The operation has scattered insurgents but provoked apparent reprisal attacks that have killed more than 500 people since October.

Police said Friday's bombing in Lakki Marwat city, not far from South Waziristan, was possible retaliation for local residents' efforts to keep militants out of the area.

"The locality has been a hub of militants. Locals set up a militia and expelled the militants from this area. This attack seems to be reaction to their expulsion," local police chief Ayub Khan told reporters.

He said the bomber drove a vehicle loaded with 550 pounds (250 kilograms) of high-intensity explosives onto the field, which lies in a congested neighborhood, during the volleyball contest.

Some nearby houses collapsed, and "we fear that some 10 or so people might have been trapped in the rubble," Khan said.
In addition, a group of local tribal elders were holding a meeting at a mosque nearby. The mosque was damaged and some people there died, he said.

Another police official, Habib Khan, said at least 32 people were killed and more than 70 were wounded. He said some 300 people were on the field when the blast went off.

Also Friday, a suspected U.S. missile struck a car carrying alleged militants in North Waziristan tribal region, killing three men, two intelligence officials said. It was the second such strike in less than a day.

The strikes are part of the U.S. campaign to eliminate high-value militant targets that use Pakistan as a safe haven to plan attacks in neighboring Afghanistan and on the West.

The one Friday happened near Mir Ali, a major town in the region, two intelligence officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. Shortly afterward, Taliban fighters arrived at the scene of the attack in the village of Ghundi and moved the bodies to an undisclosed location, the officials said.

Thursday's missile strike was also near Mir Ali, hitting a house and killing three people.

U.S. officials rarely discuss the strikes, and Pakistan publicly condemns them, though it is widely believed to aid them secretly.

Karachi, the country's largest city, came to a virtual standstill Friday after religious and political leaders called for a general strike to protest a bombing that killed 44 people and subsequent riots.

The city's major markets, stores and business centers were closed, along with financial institutions that had already planned to shut because of New Year's Day. Public transportation was halted and gas stations were shut down.

Monday's bombing occurred in the midst of a procession of minority Shiite Muslims during the Islamic holy month of Muharram. Afterward, angry protesters went on a rampage, setting fires to about 2,000 stores that took three days to completely put out.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik, on a visit to Karachi, said investigators were still determining if the attack was a suicide bombing.

He also questioned the claim of a purported Taliban spokesman, Asmatullah Shaheen, that the militant group was behind the attack. Local news reports on Friday quoted a more prominent Taliban spokesman, Azam Tariq, as denying that the Pakistani Taliban's central leadership had approved the attack, though he did not rule out the possibility that Shaheen's group had carried it out without approval.

Elsewhere in the northwest, a roadside bomb exploded near a car in the Bajur tribal region, killing an anti-Taliban tribal elder and five of his family members, said Nasib Shah, a local government official.

Bajur was the focus of a 2008-09 army offensive but still suffers some militant violence. Tribal leaders who support the government against the Taliban are frequent targets of attacks.
 

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"....the goal of Them is to Kill As Many Americans As Possible!!"

cool....then a volleyball tournament in northwest Pakistan is exactly where I want Them to be working. There's probably no place on Planet Earth that is further from my home here in Clearwater FL USA
 

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"....the goal of Them is to Kill As Many Americans As Possible!!"

cool....then a volleyball tournament in northwest Pakistan is exactly where I want Them to be working. There's probably no place on Planet Earth that is further from my home here in Clearwater FL USA

You're a broken record. ##)
 

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Barman, what does that have to do with anything? Of course most of us are unlikely to die in a terrorist attack. Most of us are unlikely to get hit by lightning. Or hit a 3 team underdog MLB parley.

The people who blow up volleyball courts in Pakistan and outdoor markets in India are one mind with the people who try to smuggle liquid explosives onto British jetliners, blow up trains in Madrid to influence elections, and attempt to blow up American planes and buildings.

What if these people gain control of Pakistan's nukes? Does that make you and I a little less safe?

We get it Barman. You're the smug class clown guffawing for whatever reason. You feel safe because your government protects you. The same government you wrongly accuse of deliberately murdering innocents across the globe when in reality it's exactly the opposite.

In truth, it is your government for the most part that risks its brave young men and women's lives to protect innocent people all over the world. The one that has kept you and I safe. So far.....
 

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"The US air force perpetrated an appalling massacre against citizens in the north of Yemen as it launched air raids on various populated areas, markets, refugee camps and villages along with Saudi warplanes," the northern Yemen-based Houthi Shia fighters said.

They added, "The savage crime committed by the US air force shows the real face of the United States. It cancels out much touted American claims of human rights protection, promotion of freedoms of citizens as well as democracy."

The US has been playing war games in Yemen for a week now in support of Yemen's fight against the Houthi militants, including the sending in of US Special Forces to help quell the "crisis" and "ensure regional stability." So what if a few villages get bombed in the process?
This is eerily reminiscent of the US's record in Africa. The Bush Administration encouraged Ethiopia to invade neighboring Somalia, and Somalia quickly became destabilized. Three years later, the Obama Administration is now funding numerous Somalian militias with arms while ordering up the occasional air raid.
There is no good that can come from this pointless meddling, at least from the perspective of the American citizen. We are the ones that are killed or injured when the inevitable blowback of constant military intervention comes to fruition.
Like when 15 fanatical Saudis helped kill 3,000 innocent Americans because the US government had been occupying Saudia Arabia since 1991. No Yemeni has attacked us yet, but if the US keeps these air strikes up, that may soon change.


http://www.examiner.com/x-8131-Suns...120-just-another-day-in-the-life-of-an-empire
 

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^^^

Take the terrorists word or it. They ever lie in their "Massacre" rhetoric. AQ has learned the Palestinian Playbook well.
 

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How Young Muslims Get Radicalized
http://www.sphere.com/nc/article/three-smart-takes-on-how-young-muslims-get-radicalized/19299809
(Dec. 31) -- Two big questions are driving the coverage of failed Christmas Day bomber suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, and they are these: How was it that the warning signs were missed and he was allowed to board the airplane he allegedly intended to destroy? And just what is it that drives young men like him – incidentally Muslim young men of privileged upbringing and Western education – to turn to violent religious extremism?

The first has sparked a vicious blame game and could well prompt a full-blown congressional inquiry. But the second is just as important, especially as the United States becomes an increasingly fertile ground for homegrown terrorism, with more terrorist threats uncovered on U.S. soil in 2009 than in any year since 2001.

In his Pulitzer-winning book "The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and The Road to 9/11," Lawrence Wright wrote that the terrorist network was from its origins composed of people with widely divergent motivations who varied greatly in religiosity and degree of radicalism. To an extent, that remains true today: Certain recurring narratives serve as a springboard for resentment – most prominently, the notion of an unjust occupation of the Muslim nations of Iraq and Afghanistan. But nine years on, there is no single consensus explanation for why some forgo peaceful forms of protest and instead opt to attempt mass-murders.

That said, there are many smart takes on how the radicalization process works, with the following among the most noteworthy:

Six Steps to Terror
A recent study by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Center for Terrorism Research proposes that there are six distinct steps toward radicalization that are at least "partially observable." Five of those involve the adoption of a strict and manifestly intolerant interpretation of Islam.

One critical step examined in the study is the decision to trust only strict religious authorities. And such was the case for Maj. Nidal Hasan, the U.S. Army psychiatrist accused of killing 13 in a shooting rampage at Fort Hood in Texas on Nov. 5. Hasan was a loner, but not without mentors: He heeded the teachings of Anwar al-Awlaki, the Yemeni imam at a mosque he attended in Virginia, who was later identified as an al-Qaida senior recruiter and counselor to two 9/11 perpetrators who'd attended the same mosque. Hasan looked to al-Awlaki for personal advice, going so far as to ask him his opinion on the legitimacy of killing American soldiers. (Al-Awlaki, last seen in Yemen, commended Hasan's actions in an interview after the shooting.)

Another element of the radicalization process singled out by the Center for Terrorism Research is perceiving of the differences between Islam and the West as irreconcilable. Hasan made it clear that he did not feel comfortable being part of a war against Muslims: During the senior year of his residency in psychiatry at Walter Reed Medical Center, he gave a now infamous presentation recommending that the Department of Defense allow Muslim soldiers to conscientiously object to deployment in Islamic countries to "decrease adverse events."

Through this lens, reports that Abdulmutallab once wrote online that he was grappling with the "dilemma between liberalism and extremism" as a Muslim – he asked the forum, "How should one put the balance right?" – take on an even more-chilling resonance.

Dislocation and Displacement Factors
Many terrorists in the making don't start with a blind hatred of foreign cultures born of isolation, but rather acquire their views during or after stints abroad. Living far from home and juggling sometimes-conflicting cultural values, they cultivate an extremist worldview, paradoxically, in a bid to fashion a stable identity.

Steve Coll of the New Yorker, summing up the analysis of forensic psychiatrist and former CIA officer Marc Sageman, described Abdulmutallab's biography as "one of dislocation," and, more to the point, also as fitting an increasingly established formula. That formula "often seems to involve a young man who is raised in country A, becomes radicalized in country B and then decides to attack country C, with 'C' often (but not always) being the United States." Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian citizen, studied in Togo, the United Kingdom and Yemen. In that, he resembles many of the key figures behind the 9/11 attacks, who often attended college in the West. He then traveled everywhere from Oklahoma to Pakistan to the Philippines developing relationships and then strategies for terrorist acts.

The Internet Makes Them Do It
It's practically expected now, but that doesn't make it less relevant: Many jihadists-to-be are exposed to the people and the ideas that radicalize them through the Internet. "Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat Within," a paper released by National Defense University analysts in 2008, laid out how the Web serves as the most effective tool for terrorist recruitment across the world, distributing "translated radical messages and videos of acts of terrorism to incite the gullible and impressionable." Indeed, the Internet allows for the mobilization of terrorist-inclined youth to an extent not otherwise be possible.

The five young Muslim Americans from Virginia who were arrested early in December in Pakistan while trying to connect with extremist groups provide a prime example. Their journey from, by all accounts, relatively assimilated American life began with connections forged online. The Washington Post reported that the young men communicated with militants and Taliban insurgents using social media sites, and through that apparently came to the attention of an Islamist recruiter. The recruiter, identified as "Saifullah," found them through their YouTube activities, sent them coded e-mails and guided them once they arrived in Pakistan.

But even that disclosure leaves some of the mystery unsolved. Like other made-in-the-U.S. terrorists, they were "self-starters" who meet recruiters halfway, rather than wait to be enlisted. And it is not yet known what compelled them to seek out a guide into the world of terror.
 

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Cartoonist Hid Inside 'Panic Room' During Attack
http://www.sphere.com/world/article...muhammad-cartoonist-kurt-westergaard/19300369
(Jan. 2) -- Danish political cartoonist Kurt Westergaard hid in a "panic room" inside his home as a man wielding an ax and knife cracked the glass in the home's front door, Danish police said Saturday.

Police said a home alarm alerted them to the scene in Aarhus at 10 p.m. Friday, and they were attacked by the suspect when they responded. Police shot the suspect.

Westergaard took his 5-year-old granddaughter into the "panic room" when he realized what was happening, Chief Superintendent Ole Madsen said.

Westergaard, who has been threatened for drawing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, is ordinarily accompanied by bodyguards when he leaves his home, but nobody was on guard at the house Friday, the Security and Intelligence Service told CNN.

Kurt Westergaard has been threatened for drawing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad.
Police said Westergaard was "being taken care of" after the break-in, but wouldn't reveal his new location.

The suspect, meanwhile, appeared in court Saturday, charged with attempted assassination, the Danish Intelligence and Security Service said.

The suspect was shot in the right leg and left hand and hospitalized after the incident, police said. Video showed him appearing in court Saturday strapped onto a stretcher.

Authorities did not identify the suspect because the judge decided it would be illegal to disclose his name, said Madsen, with the East Jutland Police. Authorities said he was a 28-year-old Somali who has legal residency in Denmark and lives in Sjaelland, near Copenhagen.

The suspect was charged with the attempted assassination of Westergaard and a police officer on duty, the intelligence service said.

The judge ordered the suspect held for four weeks while the investigation proceeds.

Madsen said the man is the only suspect in the case, and he would not say whether police were investigating anyone else.

Police had no indication that an attack was being planned on Westergaard, Madsen said, though the intelligence service said the suspect had been under surveillance because of his terrorist links.

Danish intelligence officials said the suspect is connected to al-Shabaab, al Qaeda's ally in east Africa.

The incident "once again confirms the terrorist threat that is directed against Denmark and against cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, in particular," said Jakob Scharf, spokesman for the Danish Security and Intelligence Service.

Westergaard's caricature of Muhammad -- showing the prophet wearing a bomb as a turban with a lit fuse -- sparked an uproar among Muslims in early 2006 after newspapers reprinted the images months later as a matter of free speech. The cartoon was first published by the Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten in September 2005.

At the time, Westergaard said he wanted his cartoon to say that some people exploited the prophet to legitimize terrorism. However, many in the Muslim world interpreted the drawing as depicting their prophet as a terrorist.

Over the years, Danish authorities have arrested other suspects who allegedly plotted against Westergaard's life.

After three such arrests in February 2008, Westergaard issued a statement, saying, "Of course I fear for my life after the Danish Security and Intelligence Service informed me of the concrete plans of certain people to kill me. However, I have turned fear into anger and indignation. It has made me angry that a perfectly normal everyday activity which I used to do by the thousand was abused to set off such madness."

Scharf said authorities have taken measures to ensure Westergaard's safety, and that the protection has "proven effective."

CNN's Per Nyberg contributed to this report.
 

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Cartoonist Hid Inside 'Panic Room' During Attack
http://www.sphere.com/world/article...muhammad-cartoonist-kurt-westergaard/19300369
(Jan. 2) -- Danish political cartoonist Kurt Westergaard hid in a "panic room" inside his home as a man wielding an ax and knife cracked the glass in the home's front door, Danish police said Saturday.

Police said a home alarm alerted them to the scene in Aarhus at 10 p.m. Friday, and they were attacked by the suspect when they responded. Police shot the suspect.

Westergaard took his 5-year-old granddaughter into the "panic room" when he realized what was happening, Chief Superintendent Ole Madsen said.

Westergaard, who has been threatened for drawing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, is ordinarily accompanied by bodyguards when he leaves his home, but nobody was on guard at the house Friday, the Security and Intelligence Service told CNN.

Kurt Westergaard has been threatened for drawing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad.
Police said Westergaard was "being taken care of" after the break-in, but wouldn't reveal his new location.

The suspect, meanwhile, appeared in court Saturday, charged with attempted assassination, the Danish Intelligence and Security Service said.

The suspect was shot in the right leg and left hand and hospitalized after the incident, police said. Video showed him appearing in court Saturday strapped onto a stretcher.

Authorities did not identify the suspect because the judge decided it would be illegal to disclose his name, said Madsen, with the East Jutland Police. Authorities said he was a 28-year-old Somali who has legal residency in Denmark and lives in Sjaelland, near Copenhagen.

The suspect was charged with the attempted assassination of Westergaard and a police officer on duty, the intelligence service said.

The judge ordered the suspect held for four weeks while the investigation proceeds.

Madsen said the man is the only suspect in the case, and he would not say whether police were investigating anyone else.

Police had no indication that an attack was being planned on Westergaard, Madsen said, though the intelligence service said the suspect had been under surveillance because of his terrorist links.

Danish intelligence officials said the suspect is connected to al-Shabaab, al Qaeda's ally in east Africa.

The incident "once again confirms the terrorist threat that is directed against Denmark and against cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, in particular," said Jakob Scharf, spokesman for the Danish Security and Intelligence Service.

Westergaard's caricature of Muhammad -- showing the prophet wearing a bomb as a turban with a lit fuse -- sparked an uproar among Muslims in early 2006 after newspapers reprinted the images months later as a matter of free speech. The cartoon was first published by the Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten in September 2005.

At the time, Westergaard said he wanted his cartoon to say that some people exploited the prophet to legitimize terrorism. However, many in the Muslim world interpreted the drawing as depicting their prophet as a terrorist.

Over the years, Danish authorities have arrested other suspects who allegedly plotted against Westergaard's life.

After three such arrests in February 2008, Westergaard issued a statement, saying, "Of course I fear for my life after the Danish Security and Intelligence Service informed me of the concrete plans of certain people to kill me. However, I have turned fear into anger and indignation. It has made me angry that a perfectly normal everyday activity which I used to do by the thousand was abused to set off such madness."

Scharf said authorities have taken measures to ensure Westergaard's safety, and that the protection has "proven effective."

CNN's Per Nyberg contributed to this report.

Jesus...don't they allow guns in Denmark? Hide in a panic room?

How about take this barbarian out with a .45...let them all know the bullets are dipped in bacon fat.

That should take care of it. :103631605
 

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We get it Barman. You're the smug class clown guffawing for whatever reason. You feel safe because your government protects you. The same government you wrongly accuse of deliberately murdering innocents across the globe when in reality it's exactly the opposite.

In truth, it is your government for the most part that risks its brave young men and women's lives to protect innocent people all over the world. The one that has kept you and I safe. So far.....

I am guffawing only at those who wish to promote xenophobic fear where none is needed. And I most certainly do not "feel safe because my government protects me".

I feel safe because the folks who supposedly want to "kill as many Americans as possible" are obviously not very committed based on their history of attacks within the USA

Now if I lived in Pakistan, or Israel (or Denmark while making a living inking anti-Islamic cartoons) I bet I might feel quite a bit differently about the danger these guys present to me and mine.

But I don't. So I don't.

If any of the rest of you wish to feel "terror" while living here in the USA, by all means go for it.

Just don't be surprised when many of your fellow Americans refuse to disable our lives by embracing your own personal (and I do believe very sincere) visions.
 

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Barman, what does that have to do with anything? Of course most of us are unlikely to die in a terrorist attack. Most of us are unlikely to get hit by lightning. Or hit a 3 team underdog MLB parley.

Your first analogy is kinda sorta on track, but I'd bet a bundle you don't get overly anxious about being outdoors while it's raining.

The second is just silly, since many of us hit Underdog 3TPs at least once a month...heh

Living In the USA - Number of people killed by:

*Lightning strike - Just over 3200 in the past 50 years

*An Islamic in a terrorist attack - Less than 3000 people in the history of our nation.
 

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You're a broken record. ##)

Not a bad analogy, though perhaps misdirected.

I'm not the one who starts a couple of fresh Threads in a sports handicapping forum every week with grave warnings to my fellow sports cappers about how they need to be Terrified of Muslims while living here in the USA.

I'm just the one who reaches over to lift the stylus off the constantly repeating record.

Now if anyone wishes to have such tunes playing non-stop in their own heads, hearts and homes - there is of course little I can to do to interfere.

So crank up the volume if you're so inclined
 

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1. Yemen has not attacked us.
2. Yemen is not an imminent threat to the US.
3. None of the people killed were read their rights or had a chance to prove their innocence.
4.The UN has stated that drone strikes very well could be war crimes.
5.OBL is not there.
6.Yemen was not behind 9/11.
7. I doubt there was UN approval for these missile strikes that are considered acts of war.
8. These drone strikes kill civilians.
 

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1. Yemen has not attacked us.
2. Yemen is not an imminent threat to the US.
3. None of the people killed were read their rights or had a chance to prove their innocence.
4.The UN has stated that drone strikes very well could be war crimes.
5.OBL is not there.
6.Yemen was not behind 9/11.
7. I doubt there was UN approval for these missile strikes that are considered acts of war.
8. These drone strikes kill civilians.

:lolBIG:
 

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Lest anyone else remain puzzled by my lack of excitement over the potential danger to airline passengers within the USA, I found these colorful and informative charts which I'm trying to figure out how to blow up for printing so I can hang it on my wall.


500x_odds-of-airborne-terror1.jpg
 

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After the crotchbomb there has been a lot of noise about airplane security again—you can see how stupid the leaked new flight rules are here. But what's the actual risk of an airplane attack? Here's the definitive chart:


500x_odds-of-airborne-terror2.jpg


As you can see, the chances are very slim. As slim as the chances of the new security rules having any real effect in preventing any new attacks, sadly.

That last quip added for anyone who might actually look to the federal government to "protect them" from such dangers.


(hat tips to my friend Radley Balko at http://theagitator.com who pointed me to http://gizmodo.com and this creative summation of Real Life in the USA by Jesus Diaz jesus@gizmodo.com)
 

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Barman I don't think you covered a lot of what I said. We've hashed this to death, and I'll go with Dave here on the broken record statement.

See also Willie's response to you in the other thread. I'm not saying we need to stop living our lives, of course not. Just that the threat is real, but I guess you don't feel the danger. And of course again I'd prefer you to be right, but I know better.

If you look at the last two presidents, who both have way more information that you and I possibly could, here are two men whose lives and political views could not be more different before they became presidents. Yet they both believe the threat to America is real. Are they both lying to us? Why? Why spend billions of dollars and risk thousands of our brave soldiers for a lie? Are Bush and Obama both morally bankrupt, evil men?

For Altered Egos and anyone else interested:
http://www.sphere.com/nation/articl...-fund-counterterrorism-unit-in-yemen/19300656
 

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http://motherjones.com/politics/1998/10/presidential-lies-and-consequences

http://www.rateitall.com/t-20451-presidential-lies.aspx

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200701u/cannon-interview

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2008/06/06/presidential-lies-and-deceptions.html

http://www.zackvision.com/weblog/2003/08/presidential-lies/

I have a hard time trusting anything coming out of the FEDGOV, the corruption runs from the top to the bottom and the MSM are accomplices in these lies, instead of doing their jobs of researching and verifying the stories they print it and post retractions after the fact when found to be wrong.

Often the original story will be headline news that runs front page for days or even weeks while the retraction is a little one time shitstain piece buried in the back of the paper or air once on late night news TV.
 

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