The NE Patriots team is "mediocre at best"?

[PatsFan1283]

This guy is kidding right? Anyone wanna help him out?

No offense, but you have no clue what you're talking about and there is really no way for me to explain it given the current knowledge deficit you're at.

I guess I'll nibble a little......Pats sign AB, move higher in futures markets, Pats then win 7 of their next 8 games, why would they then move lower? Them signing AB isn't the only thing that happened from now and then. They've significantly improved their position/equity. That's all I can do.

You have a blind spot as to how lines are made, you can fix it if you want. Or not, whatever.

 

[X-Files]

wtf
you honestly think the line on the pats has anything to do with a player they had in week 3?

omg

It does have something to do with it. The money bet then moved the line to where it is today. Since then it hasn't moved much.

Likewise if the NBA Lakers are -8 twenty four hours before game time, then drop to -4 an hour later on news that Lebron is out, & the line remains at -4 till game time. Your statement is like saying "you honestly think the line on the Lakers has anything to do with Lebron being out wtf". Obviously it does have something to do with Lebron being out.

As for those who bet on NE when they had Brown & Gostowski, i'm sure a short later many were wishing they had their money back.

 

[PatsFan1283]

This is pretty simple boss, if you think NE is overinflated to win the AFC based on variables that are no longer in play (AB, Gostkowski, whatever else you can think of)

Then what you do is find out who they took that value from and you bet those teams since the entire market is now highly inefficient. This wouldn't be sound logic, but it would be the actionable response to your thesis.

Anyway that's all I got, bless your soul.

 

[CHOPTALK]

It does have something to do with it. The money bet then moved the line to where it is today. Since then it hasn't moved much.

Likewise if the NBA Lakers are -8 twenty four hours before game time, then drop to -4 an hour later on news that Lebron is out, & the line remains at -4 till game time. Your statement is like saying "you honestly think the line on the lakers has anything to do with Lebron being out wtf". Obviously it does have something to do with Lebron being out.

As for those who bet on NE when they had Brown & Gostowski, i'm sure a short later many were wishing they had their money back.

dude you are contradicting yourself and you don’t even realize it .

Yes sure the books adjust the line on lebron being hurt so why would you think AB not being on the team is reflected in the current NE line ?


Lol dude


so basically you just said the sports books adjust for lebron not playing but they don’t adjust to AB not being on the team . Haha

 

[X-Files]

dude you are contradicting yourself and you don’t even realize it .

Yes sure the books adjust the line on lebron being hurt so why would you think AB not being on the team is reflected in the current NE line ?


Lol dude


so basically you just said the sports books adjust for lebron not playing but they don’t adjust to AB not being on the team . Haha

It's not so simple. The Pats were winning, so even with the loss of Antonio Brown, plus the heavy action they already received on the Pats when they got Brown, would influence the books to keep the line where it has been since the news about Brown. Making the Pats line juicier for those who liked them would potentially expose the books, which were already very heavy with Pats action, to even more of a shit kicking should the Pats win the AFC & the Super Bowl.

 

[CHOPTALK]

It's not so simple. The Pats were winning, so even with the loss of Antonio Brown, plus the heavy action they already received on the Pats when they got Brown, would influence the books to keep the line where it has been since the news about Brown. Making the Pats line juicier for those who liked them would potentially expose the books, which were already very heavy with Pats action, to even more of a shit kicking should the Pats win the AFC & the Super Bowl.

what?

 

[X-Files]

This is pretty simple boss, if you think NE is overinflated to win the AFC based on variables that are no longer in play (AB, Gostkowski, whatever else you can think of)

Then what you do is find out who they took that value from and you bet those teams since the entire market is now highly inefficient. This wouldn't be sound logic, but it would be the actionable response to your thesis.

What "thesis"? I'm the one who started the thread about betting on the Pats ATS when they were a mere 3-2 ATS:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1145412

Since then they've made money for those who followed.

I'm a long time Pats fan, but i don't let that get in the way of objectivity in serious sports gambling.

 

[X-Files]

Pats rated not as Super Bowl favorites, but #3 here:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...nkings-week-12-rams-raiders-climb-texans-fall

 

[X-Files]

[h=1]"Tom Brady: Our strength is defense
and special teams"[/h]
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ady-our-strength-is-defense-and-special-teams

 

[PatsFan1283]

What "thesis"? I'm the one who started the thread about betting on the Pats ATS when they were a mere 3-2 ATS:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1145412

Since then they've made money for those who followed.

I'm a long time Pats fan, but i don't let that get in the way of objectivity in serious sports gambling.

Oh so you don't think NE is overinflated now? Do you have any opinion whatsoever about the team or are you just telling us they're 0-1 in "real tests" based on your X-Files power rankigns for no reason? But a page ago you said their future price is based on having players no longer on their roster (this isn't true and I see you've backtracked some now)

I knew I've dealt with your mental gymnastics before.

You're the "They haven't played anyone before the Falcons superbowl" guy. You need to stop using the transitive property for sports so much. Especially since you're adding your own interpretations when it is convenient to do so.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1078396&highlight=patriots+falcons

The Pats lost to Seattle and the Falcons killed Seattle in the playoffs, how the fuck did they lose? Surprised that wasn't worth more.

Good luck

 

[PatsFan1283]

"Against common opponents Atlanta was 5-1. NE 4-1.

Atlanta massacred GB & Seattle recently. GB easily routed Seattle. Seattle won in NE vs Brady
on national television.

Therefore Atlanta is more than capable of defeating NE by 5 TDs." -X Files



That's a hell of a process you got going, lol

Oh shit, it was on national television too? Not just regional? If I knew that...

 

[X-Files]

"Against common opponents Atlanta was 5-1. NE 4-1.

Atlanta massacred GB & Seattle recently. GB easily routed Seattle. Seattle won in NE vs Brady
on national television.

Therefore Atlanta is more than capable of defeating NE by 5 TDs." -X Files



That's a hell of a process you got going, lol

Oh shit, it was on national television too? Not just regional? If I knew that...

What thread is that alleged out of context old quote from? I wonder if it was even meant seriously. And why post it here?

 

[X-Files]

Oh so you don't think NE is overinflated now?

I'll put it this way - which may answer your query - i don't have any futures wagers on the Super Bowl or Conferences. So nothing on the Pats, or against them, or on the Ravens, Packers, 49ers, Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, etc. Futures lines for such events typically offer the sportsbooks even more of an advantage than their usual vig so, besides curiosity or for information purposes, why even bother with them.

Do you have any opinion whatsoever about the team or are you just telling us they're 0-1 in "real tests" based on your X-Files power rankigns for no reason?

By real test i'm referring to good teams as in top third of the league. So, yeah, NE is 0-1 so far YTD & lost badly at that. F rating on that game, or maybe D minus.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Hey X
if the pats resigned A Brown today do you think the Pats super bowl odds would change any at the sports books?

 

[stock07]

X-files knows what he is talking about.

Appreciate the valuable info you contribute here.

However the usual suspects are always going to argue they are right though, they are NEVER wrong. LoL

 

[X-Files]

wtf
you honestly think the line on the pats has anything to do with a player they had in week 3?

omg

It does have something to do with it. The money bet on NE then moved the line to where it is today. Since then it hasn't moved much.

Likewise if a college basketball line has team X at -8 twenty four hours before game time, then drops to -4 an hour later based on money bet by bettors with certain info, & the line remains at -4 till game time. Your statement is like saying "you honestly think the -4 line on team X has anything to do with the line move from 8 to 4". Obviously it does.

 

[Doug]

Hey X
if the pats resigned A Brown today do you think the Pats super bowl odds would change any at the sports books?

Can that even be done ? I'm more familiar with the rules in MLB.

In any case they have to be considered a strong contender, if not the favorite to win it all, not an odds on favorite, but likely favored in each playoff game

I'd like to see Brady win it and go out on top !

Too many jocks hang around a few too many years, like a Dereck Jeter for one.

 

[PatsFan1283]

It does have something to do with it. The money bet on NE then moved the line to where it is today. Since then it hasn't moved much.

Likewise if a college basketball line has team X at -8 twenty four hours before game time, then drops to -4 an hour later based on money bet by bettors with certain info, & the line remains at -4 till game time. Your statement is like saying "you honestly think the -4 line on team X has anything to do with the line move from 8 to 4". Obviously it does.

I addressed this in post #61. Nothing changes from the line moving to -4 until gametime.

In NE case, something did change. They won 7/8 games, the Chargers died, Big Ben and thus the Steelers died, The Chiefs (their main comp at time) lost 4 games. All huge factors in their favor.

They significantly improved their position on paper from week 2. If they never sign AB and everything else unfolds the same exact way as it has, they're probably going to end up right around where they are today as far as price. Thus that little blip on the radar has little relevance to our discussion.

I honestly don't know how anyone being logical could disagree with that but it's fine.

Anyway I have nothing else to add. Good luck.

 

[X-Files]

I addressed this in post #61. Nothing changes from the line moving to -4 until gametime.

In NE case, something did change. They won 7/8 games, the Chargers died, Big Ben and thus the Steelers died, The Chiefs (their main comp at time) lost 4 games. All huge factors in their favor.

They significantly improved their position on paper from week 2. If they never sign AB and everything else unfolds the same exact way as it has, they're probably going to end up right around where they are today as far as price. Thus that little blip on the radar has little relevance to our discussion.

I honestly don't know how anyone being logical could disagree with that but it's fine.

Anyway I have nothing else to add. Good luck.

Sorry, Patsfan, i don't see how your comments address my post.

As for your claim about NE:

"They significantly improved their position on paper from week 2."

The market isn't buying that line, since the odds have hardly moved at all since around the time that Antonio Brown played for NE early in the season. Beating up on a bunch of cream-puffs & getting their ass handed to them in Baltimore doesn't inspire confidence in sharp betting circles. Also the loss of Brown & other negative factors since the early season do not inspire confidence in wagering on NE to win the AFC championship or the Super Bowl.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Sorry, Patsfan, i don't see how your comments address my post.

As for your claim about NE:

"They significantly improved their position on paper from week 2."

The market isn't buying that line, since the odds have hardly moved at all since around the time that Antonio Brown played for NE early in the season. Beating up on a bunch of cream-puffs & getting their ass handed to them in Baltimore doesn't inspire confidence in sharp betting circles. Also the loss of Brown & other negative factors since the early season do not inspire confidence in wagering on NE to win the AFC championship or the Super Bowl.

I think you have a blind spot as to how lines are made but I'm not going to be the 1 to help you with that, that much is clear.

They're currently favored to win the AFC and superbowl, how much more confidence inspiring do you need?

Flaws and all, team is still thought of in pretty high regard to be priced to be favored to win the AFC and superbowl (and signing Antonio Brown 8 weeks ago has nothing to do with where the odds are today)

As far as beating up on cream puffs and getting whooped by B-More, if you think that forecasts a sign of dire things to come then your free to test that theory obviously. If you are correct in what you are projectin', then you gonna start collectin'

But the whole overrating schedule thing already worked out pretty badly for you if I may recall....

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...triots+falcons