The Final Market Top 1/11/10

[kuwlness]

Well Thinker we are starting to come up and nip around you stops.....Any advice for us that are following?

ur thoughts on why the technical's signal lower, but we are rising

Volume hasnt been impressive, I wouldnt read into the rise very much. However, if we could get back over the 50-day MAs, now that'd be something to make the shorts shake in their boots and a short-squeeze would likely take us over 1120.

I'm just trying to figure out if the sellers are really gone, or if they're letting it rise so it tests the 50-day, then the short-sellers are gonna come back and hammer us back to 1060.

Guess we'll find out soon enough, lol.


What are your thoughts Thinker?

 

[The Thinker]

sorry guys, i was away most of yesterday...

we have a double top at 1100.00, off the daily numbers... i was lucky to have not been stopped out at 1102.00...

we had about 6 consecutive days of higher lows, beginning with the 1040.75 low..

yesterdays low of 1092.50 is now in the process of being taken out, as i type this...


this much i can tell you........ if we trade below 1092.50 and then rise back above 1100.00..... this will form an outside day and you will not want to be short as this should take us back to near 1120..

the low so far (1093.00)..

i want to see a trade and close under 1092.50... and break the string of consecutive days for higher lows...

about all i can say............. longterm top is still in at 1148.00... there is a chance of a rally to about 1125.... i do not think we will see a trade over 1128..

just some thoughts, my bed is made, i must lay in it..

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Let me know if this is interesting and I will post for you guys on a weekly basis

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/timing-signals-near-8434

 

[joelatti]

SO Falcon

You will be stopped out of ALL positions should it poke its head above 1104?

Eventhough you think the Hard top is at 1148?

I just want to know what your thinking is if we go back up to 1120's....I guess we'll take it as it comes

THANKS for all your efforts...NOw lets hope we can make some money

 

[RoofTop]

SO Falcon

You will be stopped out of ALL positions should it poke its head above 1104?

Eventhough you think the Hard top is at 1148?

I just want to know what your thinking is if we go back up to 1120's....I guess we'll take it as it comes

THANKS for all your efforts...NOw lets hope we can make some money

He should be OUT because it rallied above 1102.

 

[joelatti]

He should be OUT because it rallied above 1102.

Did NOT get above 1102, but did TOUCH 1102 on the nose..Remember he is playing the futures.....so yes he probably got stopped as it did touch 1102 on the futures and if it touches 1102 your filled



Month Charts Last Change Prior
Settle Open High Low Volume Updated
Mar 2010
1098.50 -1.00 1099.50 1099.75 1102.00 1093.00 993,890 11:12:57 AM CST
2/18/2010

 

[kuwlness]

Did NOT get above 1102, but did TOUCH 1102 on the nose..Remember he is playing the futures.....so yes he probably got stopped as it did touch 1102 on the futures and if it touches 1102 your filled

Month Charts Last Change Prior
Settle Open High Low Volume Updated
Mar 2010
1098.50 -1.00 1099.50 1099.75 1102.00 1093.00 993,890 11:12:57 AM CST
2/18/2010

We actually hit 1103.56 today ... but if he trades the future's market, then he may not have gotten stopped out.

 

[joelatti]

Flacon...what do you see happening now that you got stopped out...Will you add some more?

Reason I am asking is I am also Short the SP from about 1110 and want to see how you are interpreting the charts...some swing ...I like you..Thought this was as you called it " a once or twice in a lifetime opp"

Well no money lost on your part...None gained on mine

 

[joelatti]

And guys, Falcon is Sharp as they come when it comes to reading charts..sometimes it just doesn't go your way...But I'll tell you one thing when he posts I listen

 

[kuwlness]

Looks like total market manipulation to me. They're going to force the market over the 50-day ahead of options expiration just to get all the shorts to cover.

Guessing he got stopped out now, S&P 1104.94 now ...


Falcon, why didnt you cover if you saw the rise coming?

 

[The Thinker]

yes guys, i was stopped out at 1102 earlier today....

kuwlness, i usually trade on a basis of risking 10pts to make 10.75pts... i have been doing this for some time...

this trade however, i was treating on a much longer term basis... i usually dont do this.. i did this time. i broke even on the entire trade... short from 1102 and out at 1102..

Joe, i will now go back to my normal format.... the TOP is still in but i am not a Long Term position trader (never have been)... i am not a day trader (never have been)... i am a short term trader, who trades off the charts...

now lets get back to normal trading...

we have had about 7-8 days of higher lows and we did not break that this morning... there is a good chance we could rally to the low 1120's....


all i can say is the Top is still in at 1148.00....


i am better, when i do not form long term opinions... i am good at what i do... which is to short term trade, off the charts and technical indicators that i follow...

i am currently 100% out of the market, so i will go back to an unbiased opinion and begin to trade in my normal fashion..

so NO joe, i wont be chasing a short position... i will sit and wait for the next trade, the charts will tell me, when the time arrives... i know that sounds vague but i have been trading for some time now and i can see things setup ahead of time...

for instance... here is an example... there is about 34 minutes left in the trading day.. the esh10 is trading at 1104.... there is only 1 trade that i would put on right now.. a short at 1092.25 on a sell stop... which means we would have to trade back down there before id go short and this order will expire at 3:15 pm cst today...

ill drop in, when the next trade happens.. ill try and work it live..

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Falcon

you always say the "charts will tell me" You know me and I am not a smartass

just asking a question...If the charts are always right then how did this "perfect storm" fail?

Again I am just looking for insight and knowledge

Thank you for your time

 

[The Thinker]

joe, i know your not being a joker...

the truth is, i trade in a shorter time frame... this was a time when i was trying to hit a homerun...

the longer term top is still in, at 1148.00... it has not failed.. the market can move up and down and as long as it doesnt come out, the top would still be in..

but that is a bigger picture, with a broader (longer) time frame...

the reason i got out at 1102, is because i didnt want to lose money on the trade, simple as that.. that was merely the spot where i broke even..

i am very comfortable, sitting and waiting on my setup... then put on a trade, risking about $500 in order to make $500 (per contract)... and i do not trade until the setup is there..

this was just a trade that i was trying to pulloff, to make a huge score but im not comfortable trading like this..

sorry but thats about the best answer i can give...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Thanks falcon.....I appreciate your thoughts

So until we trade ABOVE 1148 we still have a hard 1 - 2 - 3 TOP in place correct??

So are you still thinkning the Gap to 904 should be filled? Just not playing the long term, but that is what the Charts are saying? Correct me if I mispoke

 

[The Thinker]

futures taking dump as Fed raise rates, well not really the rates but the market is selling off now..

1106.75 high for thursday...

we are now on fridays trading and the market is back down to 1095

but to answer your question, yes i still expect a move back to 904, unless we trade over 1148.00

but that is just my opinion and not how i will trade from day to day...

if your not watching the market, you better take a peak..

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

Joe, if we break the lows of the past 2 days (1092.50) and (1093.00), i will look to sell any ensuing rally...

but first i need to see a trade at 1092.25 to trigger this....


but this will be a normal trade for me, not a home run... ill be trading 3 contracts...

Falcon

 

[FearTheRaven]

Market is going to drop way down again big time.

 

[mr21]

2:3 says GS had SPY 110 puts and 109 puts at 3:55 p.m.

 

[joelatti]

futures taking dump as Fed raise rates, well not really the rates but the market is selling off now..

1106.75 high for thursday...

we are now on fridays trading and the market is back down to 1095

but to answer your question, yes i still expect a move back to 904, unless we trade over 1148.00

but that is just my opinion and not how i will trade from day to day...

if your not watching the market, you better take a peak..

Falcon

Now Falcon when does the "news" become news? Most of the time we agree that the news means Jack....as most "smarts" will tell you that the markets make the news and not the other way around...So you always say you don't care about the news...What makes "some" news important but most news not important?

 

[The Thinker]

seriously Joe, for my style of trading, the news never means anything, never...

but for longer term traders (investors) (like yourself), i suppose the news is almost always important..

Joe, get a load of the low (1092.50) and go back up and read my last post..

it said that i needed to see a trade to (1092.25) before it signaled to put on a short, well that never happened..

amazing that it turned right there and never hit my trigger... technicals at its finest..

im still waiting for a trade to 1092.25 on the ESH10 (march emini) to signal a short..

right now i am going to put an order in to Sell 3 (on a Stop) at 1092.25, which means if we trade there, i will be short again... if it continues to rise, my order will not be filled.. this is a day order and will work until 3:15pm today...

Falcon