The Final Market Top 1/11/10

[The Thinker]

Joe, the bollinger bands are also shifting lower...

the rally you saw the last couple of days, did not go high enough... this showed me more weakness..

it is my opinion that we trade lower the next 3 sessions (counting today) and probably see 1050 SP before the week ends... which would take the dow down to about 9700 or so by fridays close...

that is just a thought..

from a trading perspective, i am zeroed in on....... 1101.50 and 1082.00, yesterdays high and low... i would not doubt that today is an "inside day".. which means neither of those numbers come out... however that is purely an opinion...

Falcon

 

[kuwlness]

Until the trendline is broken with conviction, I'll stay cautiously bullish. Last time they broke the trendline, every short got caught with their pants down.

I dont see any gaps that need to be filled

 

[joelatti]

Only thing that has me "thinking" is Tech is still doing very well...AAPL, AMZN etc

Still Rising

 

[The Thinker]

Joe, i have not seen a setup like this one in some time.... sure it could fail and we could move higher.. if we do, ill be ready... it will cost me a little but i would adjust and go with the market..

however i began to position myself short at 1124.75.... i have added a couple more since then....

if we trade back to 1148.25, i would be completely out and would take about a $7500 loss....

if we reach 904, i will exit all short positions and profit about (50k)...

i do not usually trade in this manner but the setup was just too good, to not take a shot...

i have been calling this "the perfect storm", for a move to 904...

my script would be:

down the next 3 sessions, closing friday around 1050

ill update as we move along.... good luck to everyone...

Falcon

 

[Heimie]

Thinker,

I respect your opinion re the gap however this is more for
the daily speculator . Do you have any opinions re the layman
and how he should adjust accordingly with his/her 401k
or other savings tool?? Is the bond market an option based
on your 'down' trend forecast for the S&P?? Small caps??

 

[The Thinker]

Heime, i really dont... i now only trade the emini sp 500 market... i have some friends that have gotten out of alot of their stocks...

i have some contacts that excpect a Huge move to the upside in grains, with soybeans being the leader...


in laymen terms, i expcet the SP to move to 900 and this would place the dow around 8300..

ill try and pop in here often... today has went about as expected, an inside trading day is being placed...

i expect a significant move lower the next 2 days, especially friday... of course i could be wrong and if i am, ill try and adjust...

i think the dow will end the week around 9700-9800, which would place the SP around 1050... lets see if im correct.. tomorrow should show us.

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

60yr cycle Low coming in beans... waiting to make the bottom soon... i dont trade them but i have friends that do.... i know they want to see a trade down to the low 8.80s in beans...

they are also looking for big pullbacks in the metals... mentioning $14.20 on silver and possibly $11.80.... again, i dont trade this, just privy to some talk from some heavy hitters..


now back to my market... the SP... boys it sure looks as though 1148 is the TOP for some time... dont really see how you could see anything else..

Joe, just another example of the charts running ahead of the news this morning... looking for 3 down days in a row and a trip down to 1050 by fridays close...

pay attention today to 1082 on the march sp futures, if that number is taken out today, it should be an easy trip down to the low to mid 1070's.

i would anticipate a close today in the 1070's... and a close tomorrow closer to 1050... this would place the dow jones in the 9700-9800 neighborhood at fridays close..

this is strictly chart talk and what i see....

but this all comes with the stipulation that the market can do anything.. and often times does...

i thought this market was very weak, when 1103 was not even hit... once again failing to reach a 50% retrace at 1107... when a market cannot do this, its showing its hand (bigtime)...

the writing is all over this move down... i know a guy yesterday who bought 30k worth of SP Put options...

lets see how long the trip to 904 takes...

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

we have now broken the low at 1082 (as expected)...

keep an eye now on 1066.50..... I do not think we take that out today, if we do (Lord help any Longs)...

low should come in today, somewhere in the low 1070s to upper 1060s..

Joe, this move should now take us away from 1100... i really dont think that we will trade at 1103.75, until we see 904...

if and when we break 1066.50 (and i think it will be tomorrow), ill post on next support level and possibly retrace level..

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

I am watching Falcon...looks like we did never get to 1004, but we are headed lower...My guess is Friday will be key, if the market catches a bid we might stop the bleed for a bit, if it doesn't I think we might trade Even LOWER than 904 before we Bounce JMHO

 

[The Thinker]

joe, you never know... i will re-evaluate everything when we get to 904.. a friend of mine says 883 for the SP..

we have broken the Low of the move at 1066.50... as todays low is 1065.75(this is the low for SP futures).. if your watching cnbc, the price they show is the sp cash price, which is currently a little higher, a few points (2-3 i think)..

today looks like, how bad do they want to make it.... ive made more today than i have in any day, maybe ever... every pt that you see the sp drop, i make $250... so make it as ugly as you can... im currently short 5 esh09 contracts...

back later..

Falcon

 

[tiznow]

deflation time again biatches!!

thanks again for the 1-2-3 top call falc....i had this thing pegged going to 1200 around march or so before it caved in again but looks like it came early

the depression starts for real now......last time it was quick and everybody was like WTF is going on and the "printers" mustered up a rally in the meantime....now after going into gobs and gobs of debt to "print" and we return to the abyss with hoards and hoards of UE for a long time things will get interesting....

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[The Thinker]

Joe, this could be the trade of my lifetime...

let me let some of you in on something... there is an old concept of a (1-2-3) top or bottom being formed... ill explain this later, if anyone would like to hear it...

the run up from 660 in the sp was created from a 1-2-3 bottom that was placed... now we have a 1-2-3 top in place...

many times these are awesome moves... catching just one could mean retirement.. ill explain a little...

Here is the exact trade that i am in...

Short 5 (ESH09)(emini sp 500) from an average of 1102.00.... i am now going to place 5 stoplosses at exactly 1102.00... these are buy stops in the market.. if the market trades back to 1102.00, then im out at break even now... i have been waiting for this opportunity and i thought it would come tomorrow but it happened a day early....

if we trade back to 1102, i would still be a bear but i would have to look for a re-entry....

to place this trade u would need about 30k in a trading account for futures... there are ways around some of this but i wont get into that here.. its about 6500 overnight margin, last time i looked...

i am going to attemtp to hold this trade and possibly add to it... it could be a "once in a lifetime" trade... pardon me for the excitement but this doesnt happen daily...

Joe, ill adjust this when needed.... if you need anything off the forum, just PM me...

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

Joe, here is the way friday looks... outstanding jobs number for the market.. if it doesnt rally today, that would be an awful sign...

1050.50 was the low posted, so my target area was reached...


i would expect a run at 1076 today.....

if that is surpassed, its not out of the realm to see a rally back to 1099.25

i do not think that ill be stopped out of short positions at 1102...

remember if your just watching quotes on the tv... what they show is cash price for sp.. i trade the futures, currently the price is running 2-3pts below what they show..


this is actually very good, for what i expected... a trip to 904 by June, not next week... it will just present another opportunity or 2, to add another position short...

i wont flinch, until we trade to 1102... i expect a run at 1076 today, if not, this market is in bad bad shape..

Falcon

 

[RoofTop]

Joe, this could be the trade of my lifetime...

let me let some of you in on something... there is an old concept of a (1-2-3) top or bottom being formed... ill explain this later, if anyone would like to hear it...

the run up from 660 in the sp was created from a 1-2-3 bottom that was placed... now we have a 1-2-3 top in place...

many times these are awesome moves... catching just one could mean retirement.. ill explain a little...

Here is the exact trade that i am in...

Short 5 (ESH09)(emini sp 500) from an average of 1102.00.... i am now going to place 5 stoplosses at exactly 1102.00... these are buy stops in the market.. if the market trades back to 1102.00, then im out at break even now... i have been waiting for this opportunity and i thought it would come tomorrow but it happened a day early....

if we trade back to 1102, i would still be a bear but i would have to look for a re-entry....

to place this trade u would need about 30k in a trading account for futures... there are ways around some of this but i wont get into that here.. its about 6500 overnight margin, last time i looked...

i am going to attemtp to hold this trade and possibly add to it... it could be a "once in a lifetime" trade... pardon me for the excitement but this doesnt happen daily...

Joe, ill adjust this when needed.... if you need anything off the forum, just PM me...

Falcon

Nice Call

 

[The Thinker]

market was still even weaker than i thought.. we are now over 100pts on the SP futures, away from the Top that was formed at 1148...

we did not get a rally today (not yet), as i thought we might...

we traded to a low of 1040.75

about 90 minutes left in the trading day.... cant imagine anyone much stepping in to buy now...

will look at things over the weekend and try and find the next target areas, before we reach 904...

Falcon

 

[Heimie]

market was still even weaker than i thought.. we are now over 100pts on the SP futures, away from the Top that was formed at 1148...

we did not get a rally today (not yet), as i thought we might...

we traded to a low of 1040.75

about 90 minutes left in the trading day.... cant imagine anyone much stepping in to buy now...

will look at things over the weekend and try and find the next target areas, before we reach 904...

Falcon

You spoke to soon.

Someone always steps in around noon PST...even the talking heads
on CNBC can't figure it out . Unfortunately this rally looks like it has
some lasting power.

 

[The Thinker]

you never know, about the market..

i have 1071 as a target to the upside, then 1082, followed by the 1100 area.. my stops are at 1102...

id be surprised if we cant rally back to 1071... if we cant --- another big leg down is coming..

circle fridays low of 1040.75 (sp futures) as the low to watch next week...

more on this monday..

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

sp futures have been trading since 5pm cst on sunday afternoon..

current high: 1066.75
current low: 1056.00

what were watching for..

I fully expect a rally back to 1071.00... if it cannot reach this, its another dubious sign of things to come... once 1071 is reached, a leg back to 1082 would be next... the 1082 mark is very possible... if this is reached (probably today or tomorrow) then a run back at 1100 would be setting up..

im still banking that 1102 will not be hit, as i am currently short 5 esh10 from 1102 and have all 5 of my stops placed at 1102.. which means this is a "free trade" now for me... that would be the worst of it..

now a look to the downside and you can circle 1040.75, which was fridays low... that will become the first target to the downside.. i expect it to be approached or taken out by weeks end..


i do not think this selloff will be a quick thing.. i believe we are in for a downward grind, reaching 904 by June... but that is just an opinion and we all have them... my financial position is posted above..

good luck...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

So up to around 1067ish...making that run towrads 1072 like you said....Goos time to add to your short OR wait until 1082?

 

[The Thinker]

joe, im not adding, im carrying about 20k of overnight margin now... but that does not matter in this market.. its a ignorant rule to have almost $7000 worth of margin on the emini.... there is so much volume that there is never any slippage and this market trades around the clock... you can get out while your eating dinner at night...

im projecting a move to 1071 or so, would be surprised if we dont get it...

joe, if i add another short, it will be at 1040... which is just under the previous dominant low...

Falcon