The Final Market Top 1/11/10

[joelatti]

So if the market starts to rise...you do NOT see it as a good entry SHOR(you think its possible we then move higher)...Only if the market weakens more do you like ADDING

Did I mispeak

 

[The Thinker]

thats correct for this trade Joe..

im carrying 5 contracts, short from 1102 average... my margin is over 30k... however i am ahead over 10k on this trade, so this cuts into my margin...

joe, for every point this market moves, i make or lose $250... for every point..

so you see, if we drop back to 1040.00... we would have taken out the Low at 1040.75... this would confirm a continuation of the down move and i would have added a few more grand in profit..

under other circumstance, in other trades, i made add but not in this one.. my account is loaded for now...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

BIG Push now

1076 SP

 

[joelatti]

Thinker...You still think we nose dive before week is out as you had posted earlier?

 

[The Thinker]

joe, i dont know... ive got us reaching 904 by june, thats a long way... many twists and turns along the way..

today is an inside day (so far), which means that yesterday's highs and lows didnt come out..

we have 3 lows to look at now..

1053 mondays low
1054 tuesdays low
1056 todays low..

so were building a base right here... just under that, we have the drop to 1040...

we didnt crack 1082 to the upside, not even close to 1102..

so what we have is a little channel action.. 1053-1078... which way does it break first... a break to the upside, should now mean a test of 1100.. a break to the downside and we will knock at the 1040...

current price 1064.50, as i type this, so we sit and wait, my trade is made, nothing i will do now...

sorry, best i can say... my guess is a break back to the downside on friday...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Breaking towards the upside of that Channel

 

[The Thinker]

joe, really important to watch

1057.50 today..

this was yesterdays low...

we have already broken yesterdays high, so a break of the low, would constitute an outside day...

outside days tend to show near term direction...

so a break of 1057.50 in todays session, would be bad..

so far 1060 is the low and we currently sit at 1066...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

will do falcon......Looking at that number...Does it mean anything to go above high and NOT finish below low? That's NOT an inside day right? But its also NOT an outside day?

What's that called??

 

[The Thinker]

thats just a day, with a higher high...

like today, so far..

here is the setup to the downside..

1053
1054
1056
1057.50
and now today, so far, 1060

those are the lows made this week, we have a succession of higher lows..

this isnt good for me... i need to break thru that 1057.50 low sometime today...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Ok last Q...what if it goes below that number and then finishes back above that number??

Does that give you a near term indicator?

 

[The Thinker]

yes probably but closing below it, makes it even stronger...

personally i want to see it trade and close below 1057.50 today...

if we dont get it, we move on to next week...

i would entertain the idea today, of adding one more short position at 1057.25.... but not until we trade there...

not much im going to do but watch and see what happens...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

well a nice rally taking place here midday

add that to the buying that normally occurs at 3pm and we shall see if they close green

 

[The Thinker]

Joe, in case you dont know..

the sp futures trade from 5pm sunday night (cst) to 10am (cst) monday morning.. all this will be listed on tuesdays trading... then a break to monday night...

down 3pts to 1077 now..

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Thinker

I see we have put in a few Higher lows in a row now

Does this start to "turn the tide" on your thinking?

 

[The Thinker]

somewhat, i never marry a trade (so to speak)... we need to set a new low or ill be stopped out soon..

1102 and im out, at least i have this set up as a break even trade at worst...

Falcon

 

[kuwlness]

somewhat, i never marry a trade (so to speak)... we need to set a new low or ill be stopped out soon..

1102 and im out, at least i have this set up as a break even trade at worst...

Falcon

I'm hearing S&P 1104 is the bounce-to number. I'm long now, but will remove a moderate portion of my positions if we can't break 1104. The market is set up for a nice bounce, I expect at least 1082-1085, but it's likely we'll overshoot to 1104.

If we fail at 1104, I fully expect the Head & Shoulders pattern to complete down to S&P 1030 -- which is also about where the 200-day MA is. You may also want to keep your eye on the $NYSI (NYSE Summation Index) -- if this goes below 0, S&P 1030 will come very quick. The $SPXA50R is also helpful as it tracks the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day MAs.


I plan on shorting the $SPX at 1104. I will remove my short at 1031. Simply a technical trade and once we correct to this level, my optimism will return. Then again, this rally has been unique and I dont expect it to reach your 904 target, but anything could happen.

I'm also going short the $XEU (Euro Index) once it gets closer to its 50-day MA.

:toast:

 

[joelatti]

Joe, i have not seen a setup like this one in some time.... sure it could fail and we could move higher.. if we do, ill be ready... it will cost me a little but i would adjust and go with the market..

however i began to position myself short at 1124.75.... i have added a couple more since then....

if we trade back to 1148.25, i would be completely out and would take about a $7500 loss....

if we reach 904, i will exit all short positions and profit about (50k)...

i do not usually trade in this manner but the setup was just too good, to not take a shot...

i have been calling this "the perfect storm", for a move to 904...

my script would be:

down the next 3 sessions, closing friday around 1050

ill update as we move along.... good luck to everyone...

Falcon

Falcon....As we have discussed many times....The "news" means nothing and the charts will tell us everything....So we gave had this perfect set-up to have the Gap filled to 904 and from what I hav read this happens 100% of the time

What has happened technically to not have the SP drop to 904?

 

[The Thinker]

Joe, nothing..

this move will not be violated (ended) until we trade above 1148..

my original setup and i believe that ive posted this.... we will get back to 904 by june...

there is no time table, we can rally all the way back to 1124 or so and still have the top in place..

i have never thought, this market drops off a cliff... i see a slow grind down to 904 by june...

i dont think that has changed... my personal money is sitting with 5 shorts from 1102 and i have my stops at 1102... which means im out at breakeven... we could still then rally back to the 1120'a and then turn..

this move will technically be ON, until we trade above 1148.00

best i can say... last trade 1076, low of 1073... the market will close soon and reopen this evening..

Falcon

 

[The Thinker]

kuwlness, your numbers are about right at the top... 1104 is the cash sp price, which would put the futures numbers at 1102 or thereabouts.. you then expect a drop to 1031 or so.... i expect the drop to be to at least 904...

i have a somewhat longer time table....

we will all get to see what happens... the market is a great thing... greatest gambling there is.... no problem with betting as much as you like and no problem moving the money...

Falcon

 

[joelatti]

Well Thinker we are starting to come up and nip around you stops.....Any advice for us that are following?

ur thoughts on why the technical's signal lower, but we are rising