Joe, market opened about an hour ago (5pm cst)... slightly up (1108) now..
just something quick, did you notice the low friday (1092.50)... that number did indeed make a lower low from thursdays low of (1093.00)...
then we rallied back thru thursdays high... so technically friday was an "outside day", with a reversal to the upside..
my trading style, would have had me getting long at 1107.00... which was just over thursdays high of (1106.75)... i would then be taking profits at 1117.75..
im more into a risk 10pts to make 11pts now type of trading, set up by technical indicators...
this relates to sports wagering, with almost no vig... each contract traded is like wagering $500...
Falcon
just something quick, did you notice the low friday (1092.50)... that number did indeed make a lower low from thursdays low of (1093.00)...
then we rallied back thru thursdays high... so technically friday was an "outside day", with a reversal to the upside..
my trading style, would have had me getting long at 1107.00... which was just over thursdays high of (1106.75)... i would then be taking profits at 1117.75..
im more into a risk 10pts to make 11pts now type of trading, set up by technical indicators...
this relates to sports wagering, with almost no vig... each contract traded is like wagering $500...
Falcon
joe, no.... i would have been long under normal trading....
after my last attemt at that huge trade, i wanted to take a day or two and get back into the swing of things... and i didnt want to take that trade on a friday afternoon..
its back to business for me this week... i currently have 3 sellstops at 1092.25, which is just under fridays low... i doubt they get hit..
i will also consider taking a long today, we made a new high at 1112.75 and have since pulled back to around 1104...
i currently sit on the sidelines watching, which is what i prefer to do about 80% percent of the time..
sit and watch, wait for the setup and then go...
ill pop back in later...
Falcon
after my last attemt at that huge trade, i wanted to take a day or two and get back into the swing of things... and i didnt want to take that trade on a friday afternoon..
its back to business for me this week... i currently have 3 sellstops at 1092.25, which is just under fridays low... i doubt they get hit..
i will also consider taking a long today, we made a new high at 1112.75 and have since pulled back to around 1104...
i currently sit on the sidelines watching, which is what i prefer to do about 80% percent of the time..
sit and watch, wait for the setup and then go...
ill pop back in later...
Falcon
As long as money is cheap, stocks continue to go higher. When you hear that the PRIME interest rate is going up. Then batton down the hatches, and only hold your best dividend paying stocks, otherwise roll with the upward trend. I bought 30 GE 16 calls, for March thinking we'll see an upward drift to 17 dollars over the next couple weeks. If so you can turn 900 into 3k.
and i think this post will prove to trigger a top before the real fun begins
action of late reaks of a top with green most of day only to fade at the end...futures starting to dive some.....
back when i went pretty quiet i didn't expect the bear fun to really start till around march or so as i posted over in the sell thread
i think this thread nailed the top its just doing what typically happens at the beginning a rerally on crap volume to a lower high before the major carnage begins....similar action that we saw back when we topped out in oct 2007
we shall see...
the timing as far as the charts works out nicely too
we had a 6 month rally from early july to jan with a mini head and shoulder formation back than that didn't pan out that could now be a potential left shoulder....
think if the big bear is returning once again
we get a decline to 880 S&P or so in early july forming a one year huge head...than a bounce in aug/sept forming the right shoulder...than a waterfall through 880 in that ugly month of october testing the previous lows
as for the yellow metal
think we stay confined in the previous highs to mid 900s or so range (think the mid 900s to 1000 resistance will prove tough to get through regardless of how deflationary things get) going forward here for a year plus as the next bear phase takes hold
it is in a long term bull that is slowly grinding its way on up just taking some time with the deflationary forces to contend with...
its all noise though in the long term...
gold will continue to buy you more S&P and just about anything else for that matter homes, cars, a dvd player you name it such over the long haul
500+ HUI at some point likely...anytime soon not likely....
we had a 6 month rally from early july to jan with a mini head and shoulder formation back than that didn't pan out that could now be a potential left shoulder....
think if the big bear is returning once again
we get a decline to 880 S&P or so in early july forming a one year huge head...than a bounce in aug/sept forming the right shoulder...than a waterfall through 880 in that ugly month of october testing the previous lows
as for the yellow metal
think we stay confined in the previous highs to mid 900s or so range (think the mid 900s to 1000 resistance will prove tough to get through regardless of how deflationary things get) going forward here for a year plus as the next bear phase takes hold
it is in a long term bull that is slowly grinding its way on up just taking some time with the deflationary forces to contend with...
its all noise though in the long term...
gold will continue to buy you more S&P and just about anything else for that matter homes, cars, a dvd player you name it such over the long haul
500+ HUI at some point likely...anytime soon not likely....
JDog,
You already know im a trader and regarding the major indexes I typically dont lock myself into predicting intermediate term directions of stock indexes very often.
A prediction, call, coin flip, forecast...name it what you wish, that I am comfortable making, is that regardless how the stock indexes perform, the net US economy will continue tanking for a while.
Im curious, that since you are now more or less posting about being bullish here since last year, what exactly are you long now other than pm and commodity related plays?
1400 s/p call from you last year is fine coming from you, but are you long s/p now? You are also the same person that rode srs like a donkey for a while until recently. You've predicted June 2010 or sooner 1400 s/p but were long srs, a leveraged short real estate etf for a while maintaining that 1400 call? LOL
Ive mentioned for many months that imo if people are looking for a bearish trade, the best and safest way is to do so via put options while remaining long pm and other commodities. My reasoning is that the inflation helps support nominal stock and asset prices...even while the real economy tanks.
If the inflation... i.e. bailouts, tarp, multi-trillion $ deficits, fail and nominal stock prices implode anyhow, the puts cash in. If the inflation continues holding nominal stock prices steady and/or even pushes them higher, very little capital will be lost via owning out-of-the-money put options. Also, if the latter scenario is how it continues unfolding, pm and commodities should perform well.
Rewind and repeat here...leave me out of the perma deflation Prechter crowd. The inflation has already happened, now we have to wait and see when and where the subsequent price increases show up.
My main bets are on pm and commodities and have been for nearly a decade. As a counter play I recently used very little capital and bought put options 1-2 years out using several stocks focused mainly within real estate.
Of course anything can happen, but another call I will make is that I dont believe the major US stock market indexes will rise without pm and commodities outperforming. However, a rising or soaring dow, s/p, nasdaq with pm and other commodities remaining flat or falling would be damaging to my portfolio.
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You already know im a trader and regarding the major indexes I typically dont lock myself into predicting intermediate term directions of stock indexes very often.
A prediction, call, coin flip, forecast...name it what you wish, that I am comfortable making, is that regardless how the stock indexes perform, the net US economy will continue tanking for a while.
Im curious, that since you are now more or less posting about being bullish here since last year, what exactly are you long now other than pm and commodity related plays?
1400 s/p call from you last year is fine coming from you, but are you long s/p now? You are also the same person that rode srs like a donkey for a while until recently. You've predicted June 2010 or sooner 1400 s/p but were long srs, a leveraged short real estate etf for a while maintaining that 1400 call? LOL
Ive mentioned for many months that imo if people are looking for a bearish trade, the best and safest way is to do so via put options while remaining long pm and other commodities. My reasoning is that the inflation helps support nominal stock and asset prices...even while the real economy tanks.
If the inflation... i.e. bailouts, tarp, multi-trillion $ deficits, fail and nominal stock prices implode anyhow, the puts cash in. If the inflation continues holding nominal stock prices steady and/or even pushes them higher, very little capital will be lost via owning out-of-the-money put options. Also, if the latter scenario is how it continues unfolding, pm and commodities should perform well.
Rewind and repeat here...leave me out of the perma deflation Prechter crowd. The inflation has already happened, now we have to wait and see when and where the subsequent price increases show up.
My main bets are on pm and commodities and have been for nearly a decade. As a counter play I recently used very little capital and bought put options 1-2 years out using several stocks focused mainly within real estate.
Of course anything can happen, but another call I will make is that I dont believe the major US stock market indexes will rise without pm and commodities outperforming. However, a rising or soaring dow, s/p, nasdaq with pm and other commodities remaining flat or falling would be damaging to my portfolio.
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