The Final Market Top 1/11/10

The Thinker · Jan 23, 2010

no offence but i would bet you alot of money that 1080 doesnt hold it..

that is the next line in the sand....

i am not a doom and gloomer, i hope im wrong but i am a chartist and i can see whats going on..

the charts will make the news happen... stew on that one for a while..

it is almost a 100% certainity that we trade down to 904 on the SP at some point... my opinion is that,,,, that will be sooner than later, as we have the 1-2-3 Top in place, among other indicators..

i personally think we will then go into a rather large and lengthy channel..

Falcon

Michelangelo · Jan 23, 2010

I agree with Spread Destroyer and SSI that we have seen the top. Way back when the market was about 7000 (March) I said that I thought it possible that we had seen the bottom and that it looked to me that we would bounce all the way back to 11,000 before turning back around (either in this thread or a thread that Quantumleap had going. Can't find it). Of course that thought was met with derision. Most thought that we hadn't even seen the near term bottom and thought that seeing 11,000 anytime soon was outlandish.

I think that we need to be less critical of each other. There is no certainty here. Missing a call here or there does not make anyone lose credibility in my opinion. This is a game of constant monitoring and adjustments.

Come on back Spread Destroyer. I value your opinion and it helps me a lot to see confirmation from a guy or two who I respect when I have an unpopular read. We're not all assholes.

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

Michelangelo, from what I remember reading QL trading thread during 2009, you were bearish and buying the leveraged short financial etfs in April 2009.

You bought SRS and SKF in April last year.

I agree that nobody is correct about market calls all the time here or anyplace else.
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Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

Mich, I read the last few pages of the QL trading thread...it wasn't moved when the financial forum was re-created so it's still in the political forum.

Basically in April and May you were long the leveraged short etfs srs and skf and after being wrong a while, you posted you previously took losses covering via stop orders. To quote you, you bought "a shitload of skf".

Then you posted a lean you had that the market likely had some further bullish steam behind itself 9k maybe, but didnt post you were actually buying anything.

It's impossible to make every call correctly, here or anyplace.

SpreadD, I hope you enjoyed the Friday tape and hope to see you posting this week.

:103631605

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Link to that thread.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=666872&page=15

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

"dont sell it just yet" referred to a previous post about dumping faz

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Don't sell it just yet. COF just took a huge dump in AH after their earnings release. Remember what has been working in this bear market. They are buying the rumor (in anticipation of good reports while covering shorts) and selling the news (outright selling and shorting when the report comes out). Most of the financials (big boys at least) have already reported, with WFC and MS on deck tomorrow (reason for today's runup in financials). They will sell the shit out of the financials tomorrow I bet and even if they don't, it won't be long from now until FAZ roars! No guts, no glory. The big catalyst (for FAS, UYG, XLF) are now gone. Just be patient ..... our time will come very soon! Sell in may and go away will NEVER ring more true than this year! The people I trust are still projecting around Dow 5k as the ultimate bottom. :toast:
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OK, if this post gives him credibility to want props from calling a market top in Jan 2010, I'm speechless. I'll let Joe, deac or someone else debate it further. There are a few other sd posts in the final pages of the QL thread after the above pasted post.

joelatti · Jan 25, 2010

Dawoofdaddy said:
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<HR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(253,222,130); COLOR: rgb(253,222,130)" SIZE=1>   Don't sell it just yet. COF just took a huge dump in AH after their earnings release. Remember what has been working in this bear market. They are buying the rumor (in anticipation of good reports while covering shorts) and selling the news (outright selling and shorting when the report comes out). Most of the financials (big boys at least) have already reported, with WFC and MS on deck tomorrow (reason for today's runup in financials). They will sell the shit out of the financials tomorrow I bet and even if they don't, it won't be long from now until FAZ roars! No guts, no glory. The big catalyst (for FAS, UYG, XLF) are now gone. Just be patient ..... our time will come very soon! Sell in may and go away will NEVER ring more true than this year! The people I trust are still projecting around Dow 5k as the ultimate bottom. :toast:

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OK, if this post gives him credibility to want props from calling a market top in Jan 2010, I'm speechless. I'll let Joe, deac or someone else debate it further. There are a few other sd posts in the final pages of the QL thread after the above pasted post.

The only time stuff like this doesn't hurt....is when your trading monopoly money...I'm not saying you are, but to be that off....you'd be out of the game..."BUSTED" as they say

The dow has to go to DOW 1K for you to get back in the positive if you were short from 7K and stayed short to 10800

FAZ did a 10-1 split and then proceeded to shit the bed

GL with that one Roaring...you need it to move OVER 1000% and still would not be back to even

tiznow · Jan 25, 2010

jesus all this forum has turned into is a finger pointing contest

see you suck at your calls type shit

anyway how far you guys think we falling here?

I say double bottom at minimum....and yes we are going to "deflate" once again with PMs, oil etc....getting smacked good....

anyway i'm probably done with this place now....just stupid at this point no discussion about anything other than your calls suck look how bad you are haha type shite

enjoy surviving the depression.....regardless of what the digits on the equity markets do we are heading for one

the interesting times for america and the world at large have only begun

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

The finger pointing started in this thread when sd pointed at himself and flamed in a couple threads about wanting props for finally calling a market top after being completely wrong for nearly a year calling the same top during a huge bear market rally.

kuwlness · Jan 25, 2010

tiznow said:
anyway how far you guys think we falling here?

I say double bottom at minimum....and yes we are going to "deflate" once again with PMs, oil etc....getting smacked good....

Double-bottom of March '09 lows?? The market is inefficient, but surely not that inefficient. 1015 on the low-end over the near-to-mid-term. 1082 will likely hold though, and this pull-back will be seen for what it was ... a buying opportunity imo.

The Thinker · Jan 25, 2010

concerning the SP 500 Futures

TOP: 1148 (all bets off if this is breached)

1st Res: 1125-1128 (i dont see a trade back over 1128)

currently: 1100

1st support: 1080-1086 (solid but very temporary)

GAP: 904 (would be willing to bet this is filled)

Bottom: 660 (do not think we trade back to this level)

I am currently short from 1124.75 as of friday... I took some profits near the close friday but still have 2 contracts short... I have both stoplosses currently at 1128.25..

I think we move in a slow grinding way down to the 904 region... Once we reach 904, then i will re-evaluate.... If we were to reach 1148.25, then i would re-evaluate..

I am a short term trader, not a long term investor but until we take out the (1-2-3 TOP) at 1148... i will be playing mostly from the short side..

For you guys that dont know very much, todays action means little.. we got a nice little bounce off the first leg down.. We have a gap that will continue to pull on this market..

My bet and my money says, we see a down move to 904... ive been in this game too many years and have never (ever) seen a GAP that does not get filled. This means that we must at some point trade down to 904. the technical indicators say this is probably the time..

I will promise to re-visit at 1148.25 or 904.00.... we are currently near 1100.00 and id be willing to bet you that we see 904 before we see 1148.25... thats 200pts against 48pts and id do even money...

Good day gentlemen

Falcon

Michelangelo · Jan 25, 2010

OK Woof. Fair enough.

I was trading ETFs back then, SKF and FAS. I made a lot of dough trading SKF before I ever posted in that thread. I also took some hard hits. If you check out page 4 of that thread you will see that I bought FAS at the market bottom, or pretty damned close to it.

That ETF trading was always short term for me.

But in the back of my mind I was always looking for signals, both technical and fundamental, short term and long term. If you look at my post on 3/23, page 7 of QL's thread I address that. I addressed it in another post in the Sell, Sell, Sell thread as well.

But the post I referred to earlier in this thread was made on 3/16/09 in the Sell, Sell, Sell thread. The market was only several trading days off the bottom then.

Michelangelo said:
Thanks for your perspective guys.

I'm thinking 800 as well. If we get through 800 hold onto your hats. Dare I say 1100.

I missppoke earlier in this thread. My prediction was for the S&P not the DOW. Forgive my memory lapse.

Anyway, my point earlier in this thread was that we should be less disparaging of each other, and should encourage contribution, not discourage it. I learn something from all of you, and I would hate to see the forum fall apart because someone made a bad call(s). It takes courage to post successes and losses, and it takes courage to make predictions. They won't all be right. In my mind derision has no place here

Thanks.

joelatti · Jan 25, 2010

Dawoofdaddy said:
The finger pointing started in this thread when sd pointed at himself and flamed in a couple threads about wanting props for finally calling a market top after being completely wrong for nearly a year calling the same top during a huge bear market rally.

This is exactly SPOT ON

this board is Great and we all feed off of each other...We joke around all the time and we should

BUT thsi guy was SOO wrong for SOO long it was a joke that he was ASKING for congrats

Come on now

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

Michelangelo said:
I was trading ETFs back then, SKF and FAS. I made a lot of dough trading SKF before I ever posted in that thread. I also took some hard hits. If you check out page 4 of that thread you will see that I bought FAS at the market bottom, or pretty damned close to it.

Yeah, some of the bashing and us targeting each other doesnt help anyone long term. However, really these trades being posted with prices mean 0 if past-posted. Maybe you posted it in another thread. You posted in the QL thread Friday March 13 in that thread you sold FAS you bought Monday (wasn't mentioned until Friday).

http://www.generalblue.com/Portals/0/2009Calendar/Image_March_2009_Calendar.png

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Just closed out a 5000 share position on FAS at 5.01.

You guys put me onto this ETF. I got in Monday at 2.73.

Just wanted to say thanks.
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Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Bought a shitload of SKF at 61 and a shitload of SRS at 27.50.

I'll be stunned if this market doesn't turn down tomorrow. I'll also be f*d.
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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Thanks for your views guys. I held firm. I don't have access to the computer 'till about now in the afternoon and I didn't want to put in an overnight stop as these babies are too volatile.

My view of the technicals shows a collapse real soon. I was wrong once before a few weeks ago but I think we're on the precipice now. We'll see.

Keep the commentary and views going. It helps me and hopefully others.
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Basically based on what you posted in that thread, between that time you were in the short etfs.

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Holdin' on by my fingernails. Either I get my move monday or I get squashed.
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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   No cost averaging down with these things for me Shane. It's a one time win or loss.

I am fully aware at all times that the long term direction of the market is up. So these inverse ETFs may never see their highs or even current price levels again.

But there WILL be a correction. I'm expecting it real soon.

How far are you expecting us to move up before a likely correction SSI?
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After 4-27 you werent heard from in that thread until 5-10 and you posted you were stopped out of each with 5pt losses. It isnt that you didnt exit the positions at posted prices...maybe you did, maybe you didnt. SRS traded at 22.99-19.55 on that day. SKF was 44.64-38.69 that on Friday 5-8-09. However, when you made the 5-10 post the actual current price of srs wasnt down much from when you made your trade. skf was much lower.

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">   Wanted to weigh in here.

I unloaded my SKF at 56 and change.

I unloaded my SRS at 22 and change.

Both on stops.

Lost about 5 points on each. Not good.

I loaded up on these babies because I thought we would almost surely get a correction at SPX 776. It didn't happen. This was a technical bullish signal in my opinion.

This bull leg is very strong in my opinion. May be time to start a buy, buy, buy thread. Months ago I thought through this whole mess with my limited financial brain. I decided that fundamentally I would need to see one thing which would be my indicator that the bear has seen the bottom. That thing is year to year foreclosure rate. My state, Mass, friday, reported a decline in the year to year foreclosure rate for April.

That's the signal I have been waiting for as all the toxic assets are tied into the housing market. Stabilization (as reflected in the Y to Y foreclosure rate) will allow those asets to finally be priced with some accuracy in my humble opinion. Now things can finally get sorted out.

My lean is now long at least 'till DOW 9000 when I must review again.

Question becomes what to buy.

Have you guys given any thought to this?
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Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

Anyway, after spending another 30 minutes looking up relevant information, I think it's helpful that if people are going to post short term trades with specific prices, the prices should resemble the current price and post when they exit those trades also using a current price.

Everyone contributes here and this forum without at least occasional bashing isnt possible imo.

Mich, the more people that post, the greater the overall sentiment can be measured and information sharing increases.

Michelangelo · Jan 25, 2010

Well Woof, I'm not sure what you are trying to prove or disprove here. Whatever I posted was accurate and truthful at the time I posted it.

In my initial post in this thread I said that I had posted that I thought the market could come to rest at 1100 (11,000). The market was only a few days off the bottom when I posted that (3/16). I assume that you thought I was full of it or you wouldn't have posted all this other stuff. I went back and found the post and reposted it. You make no mention of that but continue to quote other things that I posted (all negative, by the way, when there were also positive gains posted with timelines in that same timeframe.)

I repeat. Everything I post is accurate and truthful at the time I post it. Why in God's name would I post losses inaccurately?

When I post here I'm not trying to prove anything to you or anyone else. I'm simply sharing my thoughts. I took a course in technical analysis at The New York Institute of Finance many years ago when chart reading was considered akin to VooDoo by many on the Street. I used to subscribe to, and study Trendlines. Bet you don't even remember that publication.

But I am hardly an expert and I have had many inactive years since that time long ago. And I do not actively trade the market every day. Heck, weeks go by when I don't even read this forum. But I do enjoy following along and sometimes participate in my small way when I have the time.

Lastly, I took a look at SPG when you posted that you had taken a short position. I agreed with your assessment and have likewise taken a short position at 75 and change. So thanks for that input.

Good luck to you sir. And to restate my original reason for posting in this thread, I also believe, like Spread Destroyer, that we have hit the top of this market and can expect a significant retrace downward from here. I could be wrong. But I really don't think that I am. If you don't like that view, so be it, but I am only trying to be helpful to someone else by posting that opinion. I have no other agenda.

Good luck.

joelatti · Jan 25, 2010

Ok boys and girls lets get back to Making money...Nuff finger pointing

NO "atta boys" given out here Unless you are right...being right means being right...NOT being wrong 5 times and right 2 times...OK we are all right and we are all wrong....

We are here to help one another

I have gotten MAJOR help from Woof, JDOG, Tiz, SSI etc...i really enjoy the sell thread and lets ,make it happen

Forget the last day and move FORWARD

Dawoofdaddy · Jan 25, 2010

Mich, its unfortunate that we have to lean to these gloomy scenarios to make a buck trading, but imo thats where the lowest hanging fruit currently exists.

SPG held up pretty good today, but we still have a small lead to work with. Hoping to see a 6 handle this week. Its difficult for me to remain in a short position when its red.

There are plenty of reits ripe to be shorted. Posting every stock is too much hassle to continuously update throughout the trade. I like the fact that SPG has enough action to quickly get in and out.

Come on back SD. One thing you know about being bashed is that at least people are reading your posts.

Joe, I agree. Michelangelo, you are a solid poster. Good luck.