cannot locate 11/26 plays....11/27 preview
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska (-10.0) 27 COLORADO 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Nebraska has one of the top defensive units in the nation (4.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and that unit should dominate a bad Colorado attack that has averaged just 4.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Nebraska has only allowed an average of 10.3 points per game and Colorado is 1.2 yppl worse offensively than the average of the teams that the Cornhuskers have faced, so scoring more than 10 points isn't likely for Colorado in this game. The only teams that Nebraska has given up more than 10 points to are better than average offensive teams Virginia Tech (16 points), Missouri (12 points), Texas Tech (31 points, but 7 came on a defensive TD and Tech only averaged 4.5 yppl), and Kansas (17 points).
With Colorado very likely to be held to 10 points or less Nebraska only has to score 21 points or more to cover the spread and the Cornhuskers' slightly better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) should be able to handle that chore against a Buffaloes' defense that's given up 20 points or more in all but 2 games - against a horrible Wyoming offense and against Iowa State, who scored 17 points. I recognize that Colorado's defense is much better now than it was early in the season, but I've excluded the Buffs' first two games of the season from my math model (they gave up 8.0 yppl to Colorado State and Toledo) and that model still projects 25 points for Nebraska.
My model gives Nebraska a solid 55.4% chance of covering at -10 points based on the math alone, but the chances of a Cornhuskers spread win is enhanced by a very negative 47-126-3 ATS situation that applied to Colorado in this game. I'll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -13 points.
Strong Opinion
OHIO 24 Temple (-3.0) 21
08:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Temple has won 9 consecutive games since opening the season with losses to Villanova and Penn State, but Ohio is the best MAC team that the Owls will face this season. This game will actually determine the MAC East champion, as the Bobcats have just 1 loss in conference play and would obviously win the tie-breaker if they win this game.
My math model favors Temple by 3 1/2 points with Chester Stewart at quarterback (he's been an upgrade over former starter Vaughn Charlton so far), but the situation strongly favors the Bobcats. Home underdogs on a winning streak tend to play with confidence and Ohio applies to a very good 63-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation tonight. I realize that betting against a team that has won 9 games in a row might be a bit scary, but road teams that have won 7 or more consecutive games are actually only 44% ATS the last 30 years in college football and the chance of a cover is even less likely if the opponents is playing well. In fact, road teams on a 7 game or more win streak are just 88-122-3 ATS if the opponent is off a win. If the home team has revenge, which Ohio does, then the record for the road team is just 57-94-2 ATS. The record is just 34-68-1 ATS if the home team is 2 or more games above .500 straight up, which Ohio is at 8-3, so there is no reason to fear betting against a team on a long winning streak, especially on the road against a good team that is coming off a win and has the revenge motive. The last team to apply to that situation was Oregon, who lost 42-51 as a 7 point favorite at Stanford earlier this month and the idea of betting against Oregon at that time was pretty scary too.
My situational analysis has been good over the years, but I'm still insisting on solid line value to make a game a Best Bet since my math model has been good this year while the situations have not been. So, I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more rather than making the Bobcats a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-20.5) 42 Illinois 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Cincinnati is unbeaten, but the Bearcats need to impress the voters if they have any chance of playing for the National Championship. Running up the score on Illinois shouldn't be much of a problem given how poor the Illini defense is and how good Cincinnati's attack is. The Bearcats have averaged 7.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they only two times they were held below 7.0 yppl was against good defensive teams Oregon State and South Florida. Illinois is a bad defensive team that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense and the Illini haven't faced team that is even close to as good as Cincinnati's offense this season. Cincinnati has faced 4 worse than average defensive teams this season (Fresno State, Miami-Ohio, Louisville, and Connecticut) and the Bearcats have averaged an incredible 8.5 yppl in those 4 games while rating at 2.6 yppl better than average (those 4 teams would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Illinois' defense is the same as the average of the 4 worse than average defensive teams that Cincy has faced and my math model projects 8.1 yppl for the Bearcats in this game, which should lead to more than 40 points.
Cincinnati also has a solid defense that has yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Illinois is slightly worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and are the same regardless of whether Juice Williams is at quarterback or not (he's expected to start this game after missing the last game). Illinois has averaged only 17 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents and while Cincinnati has held 8 of their 9 1A opponents to 21 points or less and they've given up an average of just 18.4 points per game. The only teams to score 17 points or more against Cincinnati are good offensive teams Oregon State (18 points), Fresno State (20), South Florida (17), Connecticut (45), and West Virginia (21), so I don't see how a mediocre Illinois offense averaging just 17.4 points (against 1A teams) is going to score more than that. In fact, Illinois has only scored more than 17 points against a bad Michigan defense and a mediocre Minnesota defense.
Illinois has only faced two really good teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and they lost those games by an average of 24 points. The Illini also lost by an average of 19 points to the only other two better than average teams that they've faced (Missouri and Michigan State). Cincinnati is better than any team Illinois has faced this season and this game is at Cincy, so a loss of 21 points or more seems likely. My math model give Cincinnati a profitable 55.6% chance of covering at -20 1/2 points even after downgrading the Bearcats' offense for reinserting Tony Pike as the starting quarterback (Pike is very good, but Collaros was incredible in his place), so the value is still on the side of Cincy even after the early week line move from -17 1/2 to -20 1/2 points. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less and I'd take the Bearcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.
Strong Opinion
Wyoming 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.0) 26
11:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Colorado State has lost 8 consecutive games and teams on long losing steaks are not usually the side the be on when favored against a team with a better record. In fact, teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games are only 9-21-1 ATS when favored against a team with a better record and 5-6 Wyoming will be playing hard to try to become bowl eligible. Part of the reason for CSU's collapse is the injuries to key players on the defensive side of the ball. Top defender S Klint Kubiak has been out since week 7 and top LB Michael Kawulok was lost for the season in week 8. With Kubiak and Kawulok the Rams were pretty good defensively, but they've given up 6.5 yards per play in 5 games since week 7 (to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Kubiak was also injured last season and the defense fell apart then too, so the poor defense in recent games is not attributable to random variance.
Wyoming is a bad offensive team (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but that's 0.4 yppl better than Colorado State's defensive rating without Kubiak. Wyoming has faced 4 bad defensive teams this season (Weber State, UNLV, Florida Atlantic, and New Mexico) and the Cowboys have scored 29 points or more in all 4 of those games. The average defensive rating of those 4 teams is 1.2 yppl worse than average, so I see no reason why Wyoming shouldn't be able to score a good number of points against a Rams' defense that is 1.4 yppl worse than average.
Colorado State's offense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that unit has a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Wyoming defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is about the same advantage that Wyoming's offense has in this game. Colorado State quarterback Grant Stucker may sit this one out with a bruised chest, but backup Jon Eastman appears to be at least as productive given his production off the bench in recent games.
Wyoming has the edge in special teams and my math model picks this game even after making the adjustments for Colorado State's defense. In addition to the line value, Wyoming applies to a 32-4 ATS subset of a 97-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation that applies if they remain a dog of 3 points or more. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I'd take the Cowboys in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
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