cannot locate 11/26 plays....11/27 preview
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska (-10.0) 27 COLORADO 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Nebraska has one of the top defensive units in the nation (4.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and that unit should dominate a bad Colorado attack that has averaged just 4.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Nebraska has only allowed an average of 10.3 points per game and Colorado is 1.2 yppl worse offensively than the average of the teams that the Cornhuskers have faced, so scoring more than 10 points isn't likely for Colorado in this game. The only teams that Nebraska has given up more than 10 points to are better than average offensive teams Virginia Tech (16 points), Missouri (12 points), Texas Tech (31 points, but 7 came on a defensive TD and Tech only averaged 4.5 yppl), and Kansas (17 points).
With Colorado very likely to be held to 10 points or less Nebraska only has to score 21 points or more to cover the spread and the Cornhuskers' slightly better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) should be able to handle that chore against a Buffaloes' defense that's given up 20 points or more in all but 2 games - against a horrible Wyoming offense and against Iowa State, who scored 17 points. I recognize that Colorado's defense is much better now than it was early in the season, but I've excluded the Buffs' first two games of the season from my math model (they gave up 8.0 yppl to Colorado State and Toledo) and that model still projects 25 points for Nebraska.
My model gives Nebraska a solid 55.4% chance of covering at -10 points based on the math alone, but the chances of a Cornhuskers spread win is enhanced by a very negative 47-126-3 ATS situation that applied to Colorado in this game. I'll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -13 points.
Strong Opinion
OHIO 24 Temple (-3.0) 21
08:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Temple has won 9 consecutive games since opening the season with losses to Villanova and Penn State, but Ohio is the best MAC team that the Owls will face this season. This game will actually determine the MAC East champion, as the Bobcats have just 1 loss in conference play and would obviously win the tie-breaker if they win this game.
My math model favors Temple by 3 1/2 points with Chester Stewart at quarterback (he's been an upgrade over former starter Vaughn Charlton so far), but the situation strongly favors the Bobcats. Home underdogs on a winning streak tend to play with confidence and Ohio applies to a very good 63-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation tonight. I realize that betting against a team that has won 9 games in a row might be a bit scary, but road teams that have won 7 or more consecutive games are actually only 44% ATS the last 30 years in college football and the chance of a cover is even less likely if the opponents is playing well. In fact, road teams on a 7 game or more win streak are just 88-122-3 ATS if the opponent is off a win. If the home team has revenge, which Ohio does, then the record for the road team is just 57-94-2 ATS. The record is just 34-68-1 ATS if the home team is 2 or more games above .500 straight up, which Ohio is at 8-3, so there is no reason to fear betting against a team on a long winning streak, especially on the road against a good team that is coming off a win and has the revenge motive. The last team to apply to that situation was Oregon, who lost 42-51 as a 7 point favorite at Stanford earlier this month and the idea of betting against Oregon at that time was pretty scary too.
My situational analysis has been good over the years, but I'm still insisting on solid line value to make a game a Best Bet since my math model has been good this year while the situations have not been. So, I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more rather than making the Bobcats a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-20.5) 42 Illinois 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Cincinnati is unbeaten, but the Bearcats need to impress the voters if they have any chance of playing for the National Championship. Running up the score on Illinois shouldn't be much of a problem given how poor the Illini defense is and how good Cincinnati's attack is. The Bearcats have averaged 7.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they only two times they were held below 7.0 yppl was against good defensive teams Oregon State and South Florida. Illinois is a bad defensive team that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense and the Illini haven't faced team that is even close to as good as Cincinnati's offense this season. Cincinnati has faced 4 worse than average defensive teams this season (Fresno State, Miami-Ohio, Louisville, and Connecticut) and the Bearcats have averaged an incredible 8.5 yppl in those 4 games while rating at 2.6 yppl better than average (those 4 teams would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Illinois' defense is the same as the average of the 4 worse than average defensive teams that Cincy has faced and my math model projects 8.1 yppl for the Bearcats in this game, which should lead to more than 40 points.
Cincinnati also has a solid defense that has yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Illinois is slightly worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and are the same regardless of whether Juice Williams is at quarterback or not (he's expected to start this game after missing the last game). Illinois has averaged only 17 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents and while Cincinnati has held 8 of their 9 1A opponents to 21 points or less and they've given up an average of just 18.4 points per game. The only teams to score 17 points or more against Cincinnati are good offensive teams Oregon State (18 points), Fresno State (20), South Florida (17), Connecticut (45), and West Virginia (21), so I don't see how a mediocre Illinois offense averaging just 17.4 points (against 1A teams) is going to score more than that. In fact, Illinois has only scored more than 17 points against a bad Michigan defense and a mediocre Minnesota defense.
Illinois has only faced two really good teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and they lost those games by an average of 24 points. The Illini also lost by an average of 19 points to the only other two better than average teams that they've faced (Missouri and Michigan State). Cincinnati is better than any team Illinois has faced this season and this game is at Cincy, so a loss of 21 points or more seems likely. My math model give Cincinnati a profitable 55.6% chance of covering at -20 1/2 points even after downgrading the Bearcats' offense for reinserting Tony Pike as the starting quarterback (Pike is very good, but Collaros was incredible in his place), so the value is still on the side of Cincy even after the early week line move from -17 1/2 to -20 1/2 points. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less and I'd take the Bearcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.
Strong Opinion
Wyoming 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.0) 26
11:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Colorado State has lost 8 consecutive games and teams on long losing steaks are not usually the side the be on when favored against a team with a better record. In fact, teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games are only 9-21-1 ATS when favored against a team with a better record and 5-6 Wyoming will be playing hard to try to become bowl eligible. Part of the reason for CSU's collapse is the injuries to key players on the defensive side of the ball. Top defender S Klint Kubiak has been out since week 7 and top LB Michael Kawulok was lost for the season in week 8. With Kubiak and Kawulok the Rams were pretty good defensively, but they've given up 6.5 yards per play in 5 games since week 7 (to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Kubiak was also injured last season and the defense fell apart then too, so the poor defense in recent games is not attributable to random variance.
Wyoming is a bad offensive team (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but that's 0.4 yppl better than Colorado State's defensive rating without Kubiak. Wyoming has faced 4 bad defensive teams this season (Weber State, UNLV, Florida Atlantic, and New Mexico) and the Cowboys have scored 29 points or more in all 4 of those games. The average defensive rating of those 4 teams is 1.2 yppl worse than average, so I see no reason why Wyoming shouldn't be able to score a good number of points against a Rams' defense that is 1.4 yppl worse than average.
Colorado State's offense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that unit has a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Wyoming defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is about the same advantage that Wyoming's offense has in this game. Colorado State quarterback Grant Stucker may sit this one out with a bruised chest, but backup Jon Eastman appears to be at least as productive given his production off the bench in recent games.
Wyoming has the edge in special teams and my math model picks this game even after making the adjustments for Colorado State's defense. In addition to the line value, Wyoming applies to a 32-4 ATS subset of a 97-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation that applies if they remain a dog of 3 points or more. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I'd take the Cowboys in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska (-10.0) 27 COLORADO 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Nebraska has one of the top defensive units in the nation (4.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and that unit should dominate a bad Colorado attack that has averaged just 4.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Nebraska has only allowed an average of 10.3 points per game and Colorado is 1.2 yppl worse offensively than the average of the teams that the Cornhuskers have faced, so scoring more than 10 points isn't likely for Colorado in this game. The only teams that Nebraska has given up more than 10 points to are better than average offensive teams Virginia Tech (16 points), Missouri (12 points), Texas Tech (31 points, but 7 came on a defensive TD and Tech only averaged 4.5 yppl), and Kansas (17 points).
With Colorado very likely to be held to 10 points or less Nebraska only has to score 21 points or more to cover the spread and the Cornhuskers' slightly better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) should be able to handle that chore against a Buffaloes' defense that's given up 20 points or more in all but 2 games - against a horrible Wyoming offense and against Iowa State, who scored 17 points. I recognize that Colorado's defense is much better now than it was early in the season, but I've excluded the Buffs' first two games of the season from my math model (they gave up 8.0 yppl to Colorado State and Toledo) and that model still projects 25 points for Nebraska.
My model gives Nebraska a solid 55.4% chance of covering at -10 points based on the math alone, but the chances of a Cornhuskers spread win is enhanced by a very negative 47-126-3 ATS situation that applied to Colorado in this game. I'll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -13 points.
Strong Opinion
OHIO 24 Temple (-3.0) 21
08:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Temple has won 9 consecutive games since opening the season with losses to Villanova and Penn State, but Ohio is the best MAC team that the Owls will face this season. This game will actually determine the MAC East champion, as the Bobcats have just 1 loss in conference play and would obviously win the tie-breaker if they win this game.
My math model favors Temple by 3 1/2 points with Chester Stewart at quarterback (he's been an upgrade over former starter Vaughn Charlton so far), but the situation strongly favors the Bobcats. Home underdogs on a winning streak tend to play with confidence and Ohio applies to a very good 63-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation tonight. I realize that betting against a team that has won 9 games in a row might be a bit scary, but road teams that have won 7 or more consecutive games are actually only 44% ATS the last 30 years in college football and the chance of a cover is even less likely if the opponents is playing well. In fact, road teams on a 7 game or more win streak are just 88-122-3 ATS if the opponent is off a win. If the home team has revenge, which Ohio does, then the record for the road team is just 57-94-2 ATS. The record is just 34-68-1 ATS if the home team is 2 or more games above .500 straight up, which Ohio is at 8-3, so there is no reason to fear betting against a team on a long winning streak, especially on the road against a good team that is coming off a win and has the revenge motive. The last team to apply to that situation was Oregon, who lost 42-51 as a 7 point favorite at Stanford earlier this month and the idea of betting against Oregon at that time was pretty scary too.
My situational analysis has been good over the years, but I'm still insisting on solid line value to make a game a Best Bet since my math model has been good this year while the situations have not been. So, I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more rather than making the Bobcats a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-20.5) 42 Illinois 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Cincinnati is unbeaten, but the Bearcats need to impress the voters if they have any chance of playing for the National Championship. Running up the score on Illinois shouldn't be much of a problem given how poor the Illini defense is and how good Cincinnati's attack is. The Bearcats have averaged 7.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they only two times they were held below 7.0 yppl was against good defensive teams Oregon State and South Florida. Illinois is a bad defensive team that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense and the Illini haven't faced team that is even close to as good as Cincinnati's offense this season. Cincinnati has faced 4 worse than average defensive teams this season (Fresno State, Miami-Ohio, Louisville, and Connecticut) and the Bearcats have averaged an incredible 8.5 yppl in those 4 games while rating at 2.6 yppl better than average (those 4 teams would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Illinois' defense is the same as the average of the 4 worse than average defensive teams that Cincy has faced and my math model projects 8.1 yppl for the Bearcats in this game, which should lead to more than 40 points.
Cincinnati also has a solid defense that has yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Illinois is slightly worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and are the same regardless of whether Juice Williams is at quarterback or not (he's expected to start this game after missing the last game). Illinois has averaged only 17 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents and while Cincinnati has held 8 of their 9 1A opponents to 21 points or less and they've given up an average of just 18.4 points per game. The only teams to score 17 points or more against Cincinnati are good offensive teams Oregon State (18 points), Fresno State (20), South Florida (17), Connecticut (45), and West Virginia (21), so I don't see how a mediocre Illinois offense averaging just 17.4 points (against 1A teams) is going to score more than that. In fact, Illinois has only scored more than 17 points against a bad Michigan defense and a mediocre Minnesota defense.
Illinois has only faced two really good teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and they lost those games by an average of 24 points. The Illini also lost by an average of 19 points to the only other two better than average teams that they've faced (Missouri and Michigan State). Cincinnati is better than any team Illinois has faced this season and this game is at Cincy, so a loss of 21 points or more seems likely. My math model give Cincinnati a profitable 55.6% chance of covering at -20 1/2 points even after downgrading the Bearcats' offense for reinserting Tony Pike as the starting quarterback (Pike is very good, but Collaros was incredible in his place), so the value is still on the side of Cincy even after the early week line move from -17 1/2 to -20 1/2 points. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less and I'd take the Bearcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.
Strong Opinion
Wyoming 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.0) 26
11:00 AM Pacific, 27-Nov-09
Colorado State has lost 8 consecutive games and teams on long losing steaks are not usually the side the be on when favored against a team with a better record. In fact, teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games are only 9-21-1 ATS when favored against a team with a better record and 5-6 Wyoming will be playing hard to try to become bowl eligible. Part of the reason for CSU's collapse is the injuries to key players on the defensive side of the ball. Top defender S Klint Kubiak has been out since week 7 and top LB Michael Kawulok was lost for the season in week 8. With Kubiak and Kawulok the Rams were pretty good defensively, but they've given up 6.5 yards per play in 5 games since week 7 (to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Kubiak was also injured last season and the defense fell apart then too, so the poor defense in recent games is not attributable to random variance.
Wyoming is a bad offensive team (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but that's 0.4 yppl better than Colorado State's defensive rating without Kubiak. Wyoming has faced 4 bad defensive teams this season (Weber State, UNLV, Florida Atlantic, and New Mexico) and the Cowboys have scored 29 points or more in all 4 of those games. The average defensive rating of those 4 teams is 1.2 yppl worse than average, so I see no reason why Wyoming shouldn't be able to score a good number of points against a Rams' defense that is 1.4 yppl worse than average.
Colorado State's offense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that unit has a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Wyoming defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is about the same advantage that Wyoming's offense has in this game. Colorado State quarterback Grant Stucker may sit this one out with a bruised chest, but backup Jon Eastman appears to be at least as productive given his production off the bench in recent games.
Wyoming has the edge in special teams and my math model picks this game even after making the adjustments for Colorado State's defense. In addition to the line value, Wyoming applies to a 32-4 ATS subset of a 97-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation that applies if they remain a dog of 3 points or more. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I'd take the Cowboys in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
st bernadine sports advisors
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL MY FRIENDS HERE AT THE RX
john keelan -(abats computer simulator)
8:20pm - Giants/Denver - What ever happened to both of these teams? Talk about spiraling out of control. This game is important to both these teams, so the motivation factor is equal. This is where we believe we have the edge on combining man & computer with games like this one. As with the game recently with Ball State, when both teams suck, take the points and run my friends. Play Denver +6
lillefty(matt dennehy)2* Green bay -11.5 over Detroit
Green Bay held an almost 3-1 edge in yds last game in a 26-0 Whitewashing of the Lions. The Lions were ravaged by injuries in that game with Stafford, Johnson and 3 defensive starters out. It looks like Stafford and Johnson are likely out again as they are listed as doubtful for this game. Green bay for all of its o-line troubles had done a great job of not turning the ball over as they have a +14 turnover ratio. Detroit has laid an egg on thanksgiving each of the last 5 years and while the sample size is small, off of their last 7 wins(hell we have to go back 3 years in this sample to find 7 wins), they have only covered one game after a SU win. Green Bay has covered 7 of the last 8 head to head meetings beteen the 2 teams
just to let you guys know that they got a crazy good deal going on over there at stb's. you buy 1 pkg and get the same length pkg free. Makes me kinda PO'd I bought when I did..but whatever.
enjoy the day!!
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL MY FRIENDS HERE AT THE RX
john keelan -(abats computer simulator)
8:20pm - Giants/Denver - What ever happened to both of these teams? Talk about spiraling out of control. This game is important to both these teams, so the motivation factor is equal. This is where we believe we have the edge on combining man & computer with games like this one. As with the game recently with Ball State, when both teams suck, take the points and run my friends. Play Denver +6
lillefty(matt dennehy)2* Green bay -11.5 over Detroit
Green Bay held an almost 3-1 edge in yds last game in a 26-0 Whitewashing of the Lions. The Lions were ravaged by injuries in that game with Stafford, Johnson and 3 defensive starters out. It looks like Stafford and Johnson are likely out again as they are listed as doubtful for this game. Green bay for all of its o-line troubles had done a great job of not turning the ball over as they have a +14 turnover ratio. Detroit has laid an egg on thanksgiving each of the last 5 years and while the sample size is small, off of their last 7 wins(hell we have to go back 3 years in this sample to find 7 wins), they have only covered one game after a SU win. Green Bay has covered 7 of the last 8 head to head meetings beteen the 2 teams
just to let you guys know that they got a crazy good deal going on over there at stb's. you buy 1 pkg and get the same length pkg free. Makes me kinda PO'd I bought when I did..but whatever.
enjoy the day!!
Let's cash!!
ZAGS
Nick Parsons
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the visitors:
Eli Manning had his strongest day of the year, completing 25-of-39 passes for a season-high 384 yards with three TD's and an INT to get Big Blue back into the win column in last weeks 34-31 OT victory over Atlanta, and now with the monkey off their collective backs, I expect New York, and especially Manning, to settle down and return to form.
Of concern obviously is the Giants defense, but it will have a chance to redeem itself against Kyle Orton and the floundering Broncos. Despite their recent slide, and injuries, New York still has the second ranked pass defense in the league (177.4 ypg)
It's true the Giants are 0-5 ATS their last five overall, but this is a team that knows how to win on the road; 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.
On the other side of the field: The wheels have fallen off for the Broncos and I look for this team to continue to struggle. They've lost four straight and haven't scored an offensive TD in dropping their last two at Invesco Field.
After allowing just 11 points per game during their 6-0 start, the Broncos have given up more than 29 per outing during their four-game slide.
It comes as no surprise then to find that Denver is 1-4 ATS its last five and 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 in front of the hometown crowd.
Bottom line: I saw nothing in the Broncos game against the Chargers which would suggest they are on the cusp of regaining their form and expect Manning to be the focal point of this game; look for the GIANTS to move to a perfect 2-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points and for the Broncos to fall to 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points! 9* GIANTS.
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the visitors:
Eli Manning had his strongest day of the year, completing 25-of-39 passes for a season-high 384 yards with three TD's and an INT to get Big Blue back into the win column in last weeks 34-31 OT victory over Atlanta, and now with the monkey off their collective backs, I expect New York, and especially Manning, to settle down and return to form.
Of concern obviously is the Giants defense, but it will have a chance to redeem itself against Kyle Orton and the floundering Broncos. Despite their recent slide, and injuries, New York still has the second ranked pass defense in the league (177.4 ypg)
It's true the Giants are 0-5 ATS their last five overall, but this is a team that knows how to win on the road; 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.
On the other side of the field: The wheels have fallen off for the Broncos and I look for this team to continue to struggle. They've lost four straight and haven't scored an offensive TD in dropping their last two at Invesco Field.
After allowing just 11 points per game during their 6-0 start, the Broncos have given up more than 29 per outing during their four-game slide.
It comes as no surprise then to find that Denver is 1-4 ATS its last five and 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 in front of the hometown crowd.
Bottom line: I saw nothing in the Broncos game against the Chargers which would suggest they are on the cusp of regaining their form and expect Manning to be the focal point of this game; look for the GIANTS to move to a perfect 2-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points and for the Broncos to fall to 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points! 9* GIANTS.
Rocketman
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
Oakland is 2-8 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Oakland is scoring 10.8 points per game overall and 10.5 points per game on the road this year. Oakland is allowing 26.7 points per game on the road this year. Dallas is scoring 26.8 points per game at home this year. Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12. Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November. Cowboys are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf. We'll play Dallas for 5 units today!
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
Oakland is 2-8 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Oakland is scoring 10.8 points per game overall and 10.5 points per game on the road this year. Oakland is allowing 26.7 points per game on the road this year. Dallas is scoring 26.8 points per game at home this year. Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12. Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November. Cowboys are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf. We'll play Dallas for 5 units today!
Evan Altemus
Giants/Broncos OVER 42
Both of these teams have defenses that have been surprisingly porous lately. The Giants defense has been torched in their last five games by Arizona, San Diego, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, despite having leads in three of those games. They were unable to come up with stops in games against San Diego, Atlanta, and Arizona, despite having the game on the line. Now they have to travel on the road against a Denver team that will have their starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, back for the full game. He is so critical to this team having any offensive success, and they were able to move the ball once he entered the game last week. However, the Broncos fell behind by too much for him to have an impact. In fact, the game could have taken a completely different turn if back-up running back Knowshon Moreno wouldn’t have fumbled at the goal line. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is having no problems moving the ball, as Eli Manning has fully recovered from his foot injury from earlier in the season. I expect them to move the ball at will against a Broncos defense that allowed San Diego, one of the worst running teams in football, to move the ball at will against them with their running back. Safety Brian Dawkins is banged up for this game, and will likely be severely limited even if he does play. I expect this game to be surprisingly higher scoring and go over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION OVER.
Giants/Broncos OVER 42
Both of these teams have defenses that have been surprisingly porous lately. The Giants defense has been torched in their last five games by Arizona, San Diego, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, despite having leads in three of those games. They were unable to come up with stops in games against San Diego, Atlanta, and Arizona, despite having the game on the line. Now they have to travel on the road against a Denver team that will have their starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, back for the full game. He is so critical to this team having any offensive success, and they were able to move the ball once he entered the game last week. However, the Broncos fell behind by too much for him to have an impact. In fact, the game could have taken a completely different turn if back-up running back Knowshon Moreno wouldn’t have fumbled at the goal line. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is having no problems moving the ball, as Eli Manning has fully recovered from his foot injury from earlier in the season. I expect them to move the ball at will against a Broncos defense that allowed San Diego, one of the worst running teams in football, to move the ball at will against them with their running back. Safety Brian Dawkins is banged up for this game, and will likely be severely limited even if he does play. I expect this game to be surprisingly higher scoring and go over the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION OVER.
Lenny Del Genio
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
While he and his team's December struggles are well noted, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been outstanding in the month of November compiling a 14-1 SU record. He has been particularly effective on Thanksgiving Day, winning all three starts, while throwing for 832 yards and 10 touchdown passes. Last year, we cashed our #1 Turkey Day play on the Cowboys, a 34-9 winner over Seattle as 12-point favorites. This year, we find them in a similar price range against a much worse Raiders team. Yes, Oakland is off a shocking outright win over the previously 7-2 Bengals, but they were quite fortunate to emerge victorious. They tied the game on a late TD pass and then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and turned it into the game-winning field goal. The Silver and Black had just two previous wins on its resume and note how poorly they have performed off the pair of victories. In Week 3, they were blown out by the Broncos 23-3. In Week 7, they were annihilated by the Jets 38-0. In those two losses, they were outgained 819-400 and allowed 531 yards rushing! In other words, look for Cowboys RB's Barber and Jones to have a field day here! Before you go annointing Raiders QB Gradkowski as the second-coming (his 2 TD passes doubled the team's TD pass total for the season), note that he has a career 60.0 QB rating and 11-16 TD-INT ratio in four seasons. Dallas is our Thanksgiving Day Feast.
DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5
While he and his team's December struggles are well noted, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been outstanding in the month of November compiling a 14-1 SU record. He has been particularly effective on Thanksgiving Day, winning all three starts, while throwing for 832 yards and 10 touchdown passes. Last year, we cashed our #1 Turkey Day play on the Cowboys, a 34-9 winner over Seattle as 12-point favorites. This year, we find them in a similar price range against a much worse Raiders team. Yes, Oakland is off a shocking outright win over the previously 7-2 Bengals, but they were quite fortunate to emerge victorious. They tied the game on a late TD pass and then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and turned it into the game-winning field goal. The Silver and Black had just two previous wins on its resume and note how poorly they have performed off the pair of victories. In Week 3, they were blown out by the Broncos 23-3. In Week 7, they were annihilated by the Jets 38-0. In those two losses, they were outgained 819-400 and allowed 531 yards rushing! In other words, look for Cowboys RB's Barber and Jones to have a field day here! Before you go annointing Raiders QB Gradkowski as the second-coming (his 2 TD passes doubled the team's TD pass total for the season), note that he has a career 60.0 QB rating and 11-16 TD-INT ratio in four seasons. Dallas is our Thanksgiving Day Feast.
