Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. However, let's not forget how bad the Raiders can be. They run for just 102.3 YPG (3.9 YPC) and the offense has been inept most of the season, especially on the road. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games, scoring just 29 points (9.7 per) while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Oakland has yet to win (or cover) in back-to-back contests this season and why would that change here in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, with the Raiders off a 'miracle' win over the Bengals and playing a road game on a very 'short' week? My 'BET' is that it won't! Turkey Day 10* Dal Cowboys.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Coming off tow AWFUL offensive games (especially here at home playing on Thanksgiving Day, which has become a tradition), expect the Dallas offense to deliver. As for the Raiders, Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. Gradkowski is the perfect example of a journeyman player keeping himself in shape physically and mentally, just waiting for a chance." He's got that chance here and while trading scores with the Cowboys may not be realistic, I do expect Gradkowski to lead the Raiders to a few scores. With this low total, as long as those scoring drives are TDs and not FGs, this game will go over with plenty of room to spare. NFL Total of the Week 9* Oak/Dal Over.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Texas beat Baylor 47-14 on November 14th. That win saw Texas reach 10 wins for the ninth straight season, second only to Florida State's run of 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000. Texas then beat Kansas last Saturday 51-20 and that win clinched the school's first Big South title since 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to the school's first undisputed national championship in 36 years. Texas A&M beat Baylor 38-3 last Saturday here in College Station, giving the Aggies six wins and making them bowl-eligible. It's a nice improvement for second-year head coach Mike Sherman who led the Aggies to just four wins in 2008. All the pressure is on Texas in this game, as with a win here and on December 5 vs Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game, the Longhorns will gain a spot in the BCS championship game against the winner of the SEC title game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama. McCoy finished second in last year's Heisman voting and will be among the finalists again this year. Saturday's win improved McCoy to 43-7 in his career, breaking the record he shared with former Georgia quarterback David Greene (2001-2004) for most-ever wins by an NCAA starting QB. McCoy has thrown a TD pass in 28 consecutive games (has at least one TD pass in 37 of his last 38 games), which is the longest active streak in the nation. McCoy posted a 34-8 ratio last year but it's a more modest 23-9 this year. He completed an NCAA single-season record 76.7 percent of his passes last year and while he won't likely top that in 2009, it's not as if his 73.0 percent mark in 2009 is "chopped liver" (in fact, it leads the nation). His 108 TD passes in his career is the most of any active QB and he continues to extend his career record of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) at Texas, as his total is now up 127. Considering the Aggies have the 11th-worst pass defense in the nation, allowing 259.0 YPG, that looks like a very favorable matchup for McCoy and the Longhorns. Let's also note that the Texas defense ranks third in the nation in total yards allowed (238.7) and seventh in points allowed (13.3). McCoy completed 23-of-28 passes for 311 yards (2 TDs / 0 TDs) in last year's 49-9 win at Austin, the largest margin of victory in the rivalry since a 48-0 Texas victory way back in 1898 (that's a long time ago). The Texas D held the Aggies to just 245 total yards and minus-24 yards rushing. The Longhorns also sacked QBs Jerrod Johnson and Stephen McGee six times. The Aggies have had some 'ugly' losses this year, 47-19 vs Arkansas in Arlington, 62-14 at Kansas St and 65-10 at Oklahoma. However, the Aggies are 5-1 SU at home this year, averaging an impressive 274.8 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) in their five wins. Jerrod Johnson, a 6-foot-5 junior QB, has set single-season school records for completions (241), passing yards (2,875), TD passes (24) and 300-yard games (four) for A&M this season. He has thrown just five INTs (in 406 attempts), four fewer than McCoy has thrown. A&M's lone home loss came vs Oklahoma St and in that game, the Aggies were held to just 109 yards rushing (2.7 YPC) and that's significant because Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in rush D, allowing 50.1 YPG on 1.7 YPC. Does that scare me off taking the Aggies? The simple answer is N-O! McCoy was great vs A&M last year but he was 0-2 in his first two games vs the Aggies, as A&M won 12-7 at Texas (+13.5) in 2006 and 38-30 (+7) at College Station in 2007. In those two Texas losses, McCoy completed just 56.7 percent of his passes and had one TD and four INTs. Rivalry games are just that. They seem to take on a "life of their own." This game will be the schools' 116th meeting (first game was in 1894), playing every year since 1915. In the 2007 game at College Station, the Aggies out-gained the Longhorns 533-357 yards and led wire-to-wire. In 2005 (also at College Station), the year Texas would win the national title, A&M out-gained the Longhorns 398-336 yards (22-18 in FDs) in a 40-29 loss (as 28-point 'dogs). Vince Young, who would complete 30-of-40 passes for 267 yards plus run for 200 yards and three TDs in a 41-38 win over USC in the BCS championship game (ending Southern Cal's 34-game winning streak and denying the Trojans an unprecedented third straight national championship), was held to 19 YR (11 carries) while completing 13-of-24 passes for 162 yards. Rivalry games can be special. Texas wins but NOT by any real margin. Lone Star Showdown on Texas A&M. (9*).
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. However, let's not forget how bad the Raiders can be. They run for just 102.3 YPG (3.9 YPC) and the offense has been inept most of the season, especially on the road. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games, scoring just 29 points (9.7 per) while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Oakland has yet to win (or cover) in back-to-back contests this season and why would that change here in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, with the Raiders off a 'miracle' win over the Bengals and playing a road game on a very 'short' week? My 'BET' is that it won't! Turkey Day 10* Dal Cowboys.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Coming off tow AWFUL offensive games (especially here at home playing on Thanksgiving Day, which has become a tradition), expect the Dallas offense to deliver. As for the Raiders, Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. Gradkowski is the perfect example of a journeyman player keeping himself in shape physically and mentally, just waiting for a chance." He's got that chance here and while trading scores with the Cowboys may not be realistic, I do expect Gradkowski to lead the Raiders to a few scores. With this low total, as long as those scoring drives are TDs and not FGs, this game will go over with plenty of room to spare. NFL Total of the Week 9* Oak/Dal Over.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Texas beat Baylor 47-14 on November 14th. That win saw Texas reach 10 wins for the ninth straight season, second only to Florida State's run of 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000. Texas then beat Kansas last Saturday 51-20 and that win clinched the school's first Big South title since 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to the school's first undisputed national championship in 36 years. Texas A&M beat Baylor 38-3 last Saturday here in College Station, giving the Aggies six wins and making them bowl-eligible. It's a nice improvement for second-year head coach Mike Sherman who led the Aggies to just four wins in 2008. All the pressure is on Texas in this game, as with a win here and on December 5 vs Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game, the Longhorns will gain a spot in the BCS championship game against the winner of the SEC title game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama. McCoy finished second in last year's Heisman voting and will be among the finalists again this year. Saturday's win improved McCoy to 43-7 in his career, breaking the record he shared with former Georgia quarterback David Greene (2001-2004) for most-ever wins by an NCAA starting QB. McCoy has thrown a TD pass in 28 consecutive games (has at least one TD pass in 37 of his last 38 games), which is the longest active streak in the nation. McCoy posted a 34-8 ratio last year but it's a more modest 23-9 this year. He completed an NCAA single-season record 76.7 percent of his passes last year and while he won't likely top that in 2009, it's not as if his 73.0 percent mark in 2009 is "chopped liver" (in fact, it leads the nation). His 108 TD passes in his career is the most of any active QB and he continues to extend his career record of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) at Texas, as his total is now up 127. Considering the Aggies have the 11th-worst pass defense in the nation, allowing 259.0 YPG, that looks like a very favorable matchup for McCoy and the Longhorns. Let's also note that the Texas defense ranks third in the nation in total yards allowed (238.7) and seventh in points allowed (13.3). McCoy completed 23-of-28 passes for 311 yards (2 TDs / 0 TDs) in last year's 49-9 win at Austin, the largest margin of victory in the rivalry since a 48-0 Texas victory way back in 1898 (that's a long time ago). The Texas D held the Aggies to just 245 total yards and minus-24 yards rushing. The Longhorns also sacked QBs Jerrod Johnson and Stephen McGee six times. The Aggies have had some 'ugly' losses this year, 47-19 vs Arkansas in Arlington, 62-14 at Kansas St and 65-10 at Oklahoma. However, the Aggies are 5-1 SU at home this year, averaging an impressive 274.8 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) in their five wins. Jerrod Johnson, a 6-foot-5 junior QB, has set single-season school records for completions (241), passing yards (2,875), TD passes (24) and 300-yard games (four) for A&M this season. He has thrown just five INTs (in 406 attempts), four fewer than McCoy has thrown. A&M's lone home loss came vs Oklahoma St and in that game, the Aggies were held to just 109 yards rushing (2.7 YPC) and that's significant because Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in rush D, allowing 50.1 YPG on 1.7 YPC. Does that scare me off taking the Aggies? The simple answer is N-O! McCoy was great vs A&M last year but he was 0-2 in his first two games vs the Aggies, as A&M won 12-7 at Texas (+13.5) in 2006 and 38-30 (+7) at College Station in 2007. In those two Texas losses, McCoy completed just 56.7 percent of his passes and had one TD and four INTs. Rivalry games are just that. They seem to take on a "life of their own." This game will be the schools' 116th meeting (first game was in 1894), playing every year since 1915. In the 2007 game at College Station, the Aggies out-gained the Longhorns 533-357 yards and led wire-to-wire. In 2005 (also at College Station), the year Texas would win the national title, A&M out-gained the Longhorns 398-336 yards (22-18 in FDs) in a 40-29 loss (as 28-point 'dogs). Vince Young, who would complete 30-of-40 passes for 267 yards plus run for 200 yards and three TDs in a 41-38 win over USC in the BCS championship game (ending Southern Cal's 34-game winning streak and denying the Trojans an unprecedented third straight national championship), was held to 19 YR (11 carries) while completing 13-of-24 passes for 162 yards. Rivalry games can be special. Texas wins but NOT by any real margin. Lone Star Showdown on Texas A&M. (9*).
1. Asa 5 / pass / 3 - dall under
2. Ats 1 / 3- tx & under / 4-gb, 3- nyg
3. Ben burns / 6 /10 - dall, 9-det under, 7- det
4. Big money pass / pass
5. Blazer pass / 3-dall
6. Carolina sports 3-tx a&m / 3- dal, op: Gb, nyg
7. Doc enterprises pass / op: Den
8. Dr. Bob pass /
9. Gameday 2- texas a&m / pass
10. Inside info 3- texas a&m / 2-det
11. Joe d 6 / 2 15- tx a&m / pass
12. Lt profits pass / pass
13. Nationwide (goldst) pass / reg: Dall under
14. Neri op: Tex / 3 -dal, nyg over
15. Northcoast pass / reg: Dall under
16. Pointwise / 4 pass / pass
17. Preferred picks pass / pass
18. Private players / 5 tx a& m / 2 - gb over, dall, nyg under
19. Score / 5 300 - tx a& m / 300 gb
20. Underdog pass
21. Northcoast totals op: Tx / op: Dall, den, gb, dall over
22. Kelso /3 10- tx / 50 - nyg , 10-gb
23. Millionaire club / 1 pass / 2- den
24. Ness
25. Pure lock 3 / pass / pass
26. Patron 2 / pass / 20k-nyg
27. Wildcat 4 / pass / 5-oak, den a
2. Ats 1 / 3- tx & under / 4-gb, 3- nyg
3. Ben burns / 6 /10 - dall, 9-det under, 7- det
4. Big money pass / pass
5. Blazer pass / 3-dall
6. Carolina sports 3-tx a&m / 3- dal, op: Gb, nyg
7. Doc enterprises pass / op: Den
8. Dr. Bob pass /
9. Gameday 2- texas a&m / pass
10. Inside info 3- texas a&m / 2-det
11. Joe d 6 / 2 15- tx a&m / pass
12. Lt profits pass / pass
13. Nationwide (goldst) pass / reg: Dall under
14. Neri op: Tex / 3 -dal, nyg over
15. Northcoast pass / reg: Dall under
16. Pointwise / 4 pass / pass
17. Preferred picks pass / pass
18. Private players / 5 tx a& m / 2 - gb over, dall, nyg under
19. Score / 5 300 - tx a& m / 300 gb
20. Underdog pass
21. Northcoast totals op: Tx / op: Dall, den, gb, dall over
22. Kelso /3 10- tx / 50 - nyg , 10-gb
23. Millionaire club / 1 pass / 2- den
24. Ness
25. Pure lock 3 / pass / pass
26. Patron 2 / pass / 20k-nyg
27. Wildcat 4 / pass / 5-oak, den a
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