thanks. would've been a decent day had it not been for gasquet choking away my parlay. nieminen looked in good form earlier and made the finals here last year. given his awful record against fed, it looked like this is the place where he could give fed the most trouble.
today 3-7, -6.06
ytd 56-66, -21.7
today 3-7, -6.06
ytd 56-66, -21.7
looking at my futures:
1. shuettler has no chance of winning the next three matches.
verdasco at 1.53, 4.7 units to win 2.5
2. roddick- at 4.05, 2 units. quarterfinal worries me most right now. should he beat soderling, simon or ouanna should be no match for him in the semis. i have tsonga at the bottom half who has to beat ferrero and either benneteau or darcis. good thing gasquet is out actually
soderling at 2.28, 2 units
3. tsonga at 6.3 to win
ferrero at 2.35, 1 unit - this isnt' in my book yet but that's what im gonna do
4. nalbandian at 7.2 to win
don't trust him too much before paris especially gieven his score against vliegen
becket at 5.2, 0.5 unit
5. del potro at 6.0 to win
del potro should make it through against andreev. if the russian wins, he's most likely gonna play nalbandian in the semis, so i can hedge then. so no bet against del potro at the moment
1. shuettler has no chance of winning the next three matches.
verdasco at 1.53, 4.7 units to win 2.5
2. roddick- at 4.05, 2 units. quarterfinal worries me most right now. should he beat soderling, simon or ouanna should be no match for him in the semis. i have tsonga at the bottom half who has to beat ferrero and either benneteau or darcis. good thing gasquet is out actually
soderling at 2.28, 2 units
3. tsonga at 6.3 to win
ferrero at 2.35, 1 unit - this isnt' in my book yet but that's what im gonna do
4. nalbandian at 7.2 to win
don't trust him too much before paris especially gieven his score against vliegen
becket at 5.2, 0.5 unit
5. del potro at 6.0 to win
del potro should make it through against andreev. if the russian wins, he's most likely gonna play nalbandian in the semis, so i can hedge then. so no bet against del potro at the moment
darcis def enjoys playing on indoor carpet. he won in memphis this year. now he beat stepanek and gasquet. odds for benneteau are at 1.7-1.8 which is too low in my opinion. he hasnt been playing well at all recently. lets see if darcis can build on the first two wins here.
lopez serve is going to be the key here, if he serves well, blake will be in trouble. blake has done well against lefties historically, even beating lopez twice before. but lopez is a different player now, has much more confidence after last several tournaments. i bet against him vs fish, cuz his backhand worries me. he can slice it very well but top spin is another story. makes a lot of mistakes when put under pressure on that side. as long as he remains in control of the key points and continues his aggressive game, lopez has a really good shot at the semis here.
lopez serve is going to be the key here, if he serves well, blake will be in trouble. blake has done well against lefties historically, even beating lopez twice before. but lopez is a different player now, has much more confidence after last several tournaments. i bet against him vs fish, cuz his backhand worries me. he can slice it very well but top spin is another story. makes a lot of mistakes when put under pressure on that side. as long as he remains in control of the key points and continues his aggressive game, lopez has a really good shot at the semis here.
zverev to win at 13.0, 1 unit
hanescu to win at 16.0, 1 unit
they both have a fairly even chance of getting to the final. id give them about 60-75% chance of winning tomorrow. provided they do, theyll meet in the semi and one of them will have to play against murray in worst case scenario (and the most likely one). im assuming the odds to be at around 1.18-1.20 for murray in the final. provided this happens, i guess i will just break even at 1.18 if its zverev or make a tiny profit if its hanescu. however, if the odds are any higher, lets say 1.35 i should be able to get at least 1 or 2 units of profit each way. best scenario is murray not making the final at all, that would really increase my yield in the final. lets see what happens
hanescu to win at 16.0, 1 unit
they both have a fairly even chance of getting to the final. id give them about 60-75% chance of winning tomorrow. provided they do, theyll meet in the semi and one of them will have to play against murray in worst case scenario (and the most likely one). im assuming the odds to be at around 1.18-1.20 for murray in the final. provided this happens, i guess i will just break even at 1.18 if its zverev or make a tiny profit if its hanescu. however, if the odds are any higher, lets say 1.35 i should be able to get at least 1 or 2 units of profit each way. best scenario is murray not making the final at all, that would really increase my yield in the final. lets see what happens
murray to win tournament
6.3 units to win 4.0
if this works out the way i think it should, i'll be able to get 2 units if murray wins or 5 if zverev or 8 if hanescu. the only thing that worries me right now is murray's match against tipsarevic tomorrow. he's given him trouble on indoor carpet before. but this time murray is at a whole another level while tipsarevic has been shaky recently. so i should be fine. he's
h2h against verdasco is 3-0, and 2-0 against schuettler. he's never played zverev nor hanescu.
6.3 units to win 4.0
if this works out the way i think it should, i'll be able to get 2 units if murray wins or 5 if zverev or 8 if hanescu. the only thing that worries me right now is murray's match against tipsarevic tomorrow. he's given him trouble on indoor carpet before. but this time murray is at a whole another level while tipsarevic has been shaky recently. so i should be fine. he's
h2h against verdasco is 3-0, and 2-0 against schuettler. he's never played zverev nor hanescu.
