what an awful day yesterday. del potro+djokovic+berdych=sure way to lose money
ok here we go:
roddick over tsonga at 1.77, 8 units - there's zero evidence that, even if he does get the serve back, tsonga will be more consistent from the baseline. any bigger rallies are likely to go to roddick.
how is it that before tsonga's match against djokovic, everyone cried "tsonga's totally inconsistent from the back, he'll be outplayed by djok easily, etc. etc." well guess what, nothing's changed since than. he's still inconsistent. true, when he's on, there's very little that can stop him. but when he gets off rhytm just a tiny bit, errors tend to pile up. djokobitch was a total let down and that's all there is to it.
on top of that, tsonga will have to deal with roddicks outstanding (and recently quite reliable) serve. besides the occasional return winner, tsonga will need to consistently make roddick play and avoid missing off of the return.
on the other hand, roddick's surprised many by how consistent and patient he's been at the baseline against lopez and simon. this is the first time in a long while that roddick's showed resolve and the ability to wait and construct the point from the baseline. thats' definitely a good sign for him.
patience and consistency from the baseline, coupled with solid serve will take roddick to the semis
big play on roddick
nalbandian over murray at 2.75, 4 units - if anybody is more overdue for a loss than murray, show him to me. he's been on an insane run lately, and he's clearly dominated the tour for the last few weeks.
however, nalbandian brings tons of experience and a lot of potential playing indoors, especially here in paris. he's most definitely not gonna give this one up easily. id say he's got a shot at winning this tomorrow provided that:
-murray not up to his very best, due to tiredness factor
-nalbandian steps it up, dictates play from the baselines and uses controlled aggression to outplay murray
-nalbandian serves up to his full potential, otherwise murray will create too many opportunities to break the argentine
-nalbandian can cope with murrays serve and not get pushed too far back when returning.
-and lastly, nalbandian fit enough to play a full three set match against the very best, which is questionable, but not impossible
roddick+federer+nalbandian at 5.4, 1 unit
roddick+federer at 1.95, 2 units
federer+roddick+nadal at 2.81, 2 units
nalby+fed+nadal+rod at 7.4, 1 unit
murray+fed+nadal+roddick at 3.95, 1.8 units
ok here we go:
roddick over tsonga at 1.77, 8 units - there's zero evidence that, even if he does get the serve back, tsonga will be more consistent from the baseline. any bigger rallies are likely to go to roddick.
how is it that before tsonga's match against djokovic, everyone cried "tsonga's totally inconsistent from the back, he'll be outplayed by djok easily, etc. etc." well guess what, nothing's changed since than. he's still inconsistent. true, when he's on, there's very little that can stop him. but when he gets off rhytm just a tiny bit, errors tend to pile up. djokobitch was a total let down and that's all there is to it.
on top of that, tsonga will have to deal with roddicks outstanding (and recently quite reliable) serve. besides the occasional return winner, tsonga will need to consistently make roddick play and avoid missing off of the return.
on the other hand, roddick's surprised many by how consistent and patient he's been at the baseline against lopez and simon. this is the first time in a long while that roddick's showed resolve and the ability to wait and construct the point from the baseline. thats' definitely a good sign for him.
patience and consistency from the baseline, coupled with solid serve will take roddick to the semis
big play on roddick
nalbandian over murray at 2.75, 4 units - if anybody is more overdue for a loss than murray, show him to me. he's been on an insane run lately, and he's clearly dominated the tour for the last few weeks.
however, nalbandian brings tons of experience and a lot of potential playing indoors, especially here in paris. he's most definitely not gonna give this one up easily. id say he's got a shot at winning this tomorrow provided that:
-murray not up to his very best, due to tiredness factor
-nalbandian steps it up, dictates play from the baselines and uses controlled aggression to outplay murray
-nalbandian serves up to his full potential, otherwise murray will create too many opportunities to break the argentine
-nalbandian can cope with murrays serve and not get pushed too far back when returning.
-and lastly, nalbandian fit enough to play a full three set match against the very best, which is questionable, but not impossible
roddick+federer+nalbandian at 5.4, 1 unit
roddick+federer at 1.95, 2 units
federer+roddick+nadal at 2.81, 2 units
nalby+fed+nadal+rod at 7.4, 1 unit
murray+fed+nadal+roddick at 3.95, 1.8 units
why i backed nadal over davy:
watched the match against monfils, i definitely thought monfils had a chance there, but he was completely outclassed.
davydenko on the other hand is a much steadier and more consistent player than monfils, which he proved tonite against berdych. he's also beaten nadal already and obviously knows what it takes to beat him. clearly, all the talk about wrist injury was exactly that - just talk. he's playing great tennis at the moment but i have to side with nadal who is very dominant on the slower surface and can dictate points the way he wants them played out.
nadal realizes he's out of his depth on fast surfaces, so he cleverly devises strategies so as to play into his opponents weaknesses. and he carries that out to a t. there's no way of beating these guys by simply outplaying them, so he just goes for their weaker sides. take monfils for example, any time nadal got behind in a rally, he'd just hit a heavy topsin moonball right at the baseline to monfils backhand and he'd be right back in the rally. that's really all it takes for him to get past these guys at the moment.
it'll really take someone who's got this strategy thing down himself to outsmart nadal and cover their own weak spots while keeping nadal under pressure. davydenko has a shot here, but i doubt it'll be enough. so only putting nadal in two of the smaller parlays
watched the match against monfils, i definitely thought monfils had a chance there, but he was completely outclassed.
davydenko on the other hand is a much steadier and more consistent player than monfils, which he proved tonite against berdych. he's also beaten nadal already and obviously knows what it takes to beat him. clearly, all the talk about wrist injury was exactly that - just talk. he's playing great tennis at the moment but i have to side with nadal who is very dominant on the slower surface and can dictate points the way he wants them played out.
nadal realizes he's out of his depth on fast surfaces, so he cleverly devises strategies so as to play into his opponents weaknesses. and he carries that out to a t. there's no way of beating these guys by simply outplaying them, so he just goes for their weaker sides. take monfils for example, any time nadal got behind in a rally, he'd just hit a heavy topsin moonball right at the baseline to monfils backhand and he'd be right back in the rally. that's really all it takes for him to get past these guys at the moment.
it'll really take someone who's got this strategy thing down himself to outsmart nadal and cover their own weak spots while keeping nadal under pressure. davydenko has a shot here, but i doubt it'll be enough. so only putting nadal in two of the smaller parlays
fed over blake - there's only one way this can go. blake's got his once in a life time win against fed already. id be extremely surprised if fed let blake win twice in a row. fed's form has been excellent recently (apart perhaps from todays match against cilic which i havent watched) and he's got a whole lot more dimensions in his game when compared to the very one dimensional blake.
blake would really have to play a match of his life to even have a good 3 set fight here. provided fed's serve is on, he'll pull thru this easily
blake would really have to play a match of his life to even have a good 3 set fight here. provided fed's serve is on, he'll pull thru this easily
